Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread (Wed Nov 20 to Fri Nov 22)

[119others]

Hearing Richmond are very keen on getting pick 2 off north

Likely picks Draper and Lalor 1 and 2

So Draper over FOS at pick 2 which then equates with the FOS to Blues rumour recently. Well Tiges will be bottom for he next few years (if I was a betting man I think at least 2, if not 3, more spoons coming up. They just better not get any AFL assistance but you can see the possibility and media support for this)

From memory, someone posted here that 6 of the 18 recruiters rated Draper at number one in the whole draft (not sure how and when info was ascertained)

 

[WheresGroomgone]

Couple of clubs over the border having a close look at Jay

Yep 2 of the big Vic. Clubs are interested and met with family.

 

[FullyBigKPro]

Did you feel the same way about Goad and Barnett?

They were the two players we were closely associated with the last two drafts as a possible solution to our ruck development gap.

Dodson I think will be a far better prospect than those two.

Athletic, skillfull, crafty, good tapwork etc. Get him in PLEASE Hamish.

 

[Mostyn]

What's dumb is not having the room or sense to have more than 1 pick in a stacked draft because you've given yourself no room to delist proven duds, contract or not.

No, dumb is not spending money in the actual year you're competing.

Do you want us to go into 2025 with money just not being spent?

It's a foolish idea. Every available dollar should be getting spent to give us the best possible chance to compete.

We should be doing EVERYTHING to make us competitive.

I'm as disappointed with Smith staying on as anybody.

But even if he's gone, we'd have to trade our F1 to get a pick in the teens, which gets us a good utility or small forward - and gives us less ability to trade for a top level player next year.

It's swings and roundabouts.

 

[Mostyn]

Dodson I think will be a far better prospect than those two.

Athletic, skillfull, crafty, good tapwork etc. Get him in PLEASE Hamish.

We say that sort of thing every year. There's been a ruckman or two every year recently, and often they amount to nothing.

Being drafted early as a ruck doesn't mean you're that likely to succeed. Being a rookie draftee seems about as likely.

If we want to invest a F1 in a ruckman, target a 22 year old to trade for. You'll have seen more runs on the board - and they almost never cost that much.

 

[FullyBigKPro]

No, dumb is not spending money in the actual year you're competing.

Do you want us to go into 2025 with money just not being spent?

It's a foolish idea. Every available dollar should be getting spent to give us the best possible chance to compete.

We should be doing EVERYTHING to make us competitive.

I'm as disappointed with Smith staying on as anybody.

But even if he's gone, we'd have to trade our F1 to get a pick in the teens, which gets us a good utility or small forward - and gives us less ability to trade for a top level player next year.

It's swings and roundabouts.

Keeping Smith is one of the worst most criminal list management things we have done in recent times, ESPECIALLY when we knew we were getting Cumming.

Its makes absolutely 0 sense. Bewildering.

 

[Cromulant]

No, dumb is not spending money in the actual year you're competing.

Do you want us to go into 2025 with money just not being spent?

It's a foolish idea. Every available dollar should be getting spent to give us the best possible chance to compete.

We should be doing EVERYTHING to make us competitive.

I'm as disappointed with Smith staying on as anybody.

But even if he's gone, we'd have to trade our F1 to get a pick in the teens, which gets us a good utility or small forward - and gives us less ability to trade for a top level player next year.

It's swings and roundabouts.

Theres some long bows being drawn here.

So what you're saying is that you'd rather keep 2 of our lowest paid players on our list rather than pay one of them out to provide a youngster an opportunity in a loaded draft.

I think thats what you're saying, but I cant believe anyone would be that silly

 

[119others]

If we miss on Draper (I will be disappointed but not worth worrying about as ultimately out of our control with Tiges able to easily outbid us for pick 2) we still get a likely gun in Smith or Langford at 4 based on my limited understanding. Then go hard at bringing Draper home in a few years time.

Wonder if end of 2025, say we finish 7th (pick 12 ish) and assume Sharpe is pick 2 or 3 (SA lads often drift in draft year. Welsh was a possible top 10 pick this time last year!), whether we go to say Weagles or Kangas if they are owning the relevant pick 2 or 3 and offer

• first round pick swaps in 2025 (we get Sharpe) they get pick 12
• first round pick 2026
• first round pick 2027

Ideally one of those last 2 years we get a second coming back our way.

Gives us then an elite midfield - Rankine, Dawson, Soligo, Smith (Langford), Sharpe, Peatling and a number of other high level potential like Rachele and Curtin (Taylor, Pedlar, Edwards etc). We would be ”stacked”

Only do that deal if we are backing ourselves to be a top 4 team in 2026 and 2027 which equates to my expectations. Suddenly a favourable pick swap in 2025 and giving away say pick 15 in 2026 and pick 17 in 2027 doesn’t feel excessive assuming we do finish high up the ladder

 

[Cromulant]

Welsh was never a potential top 10 pick this year, not anywhere with any sort of credibility.

 

[119others]

What's dumb is not having the room or sense to have more than 1 pick in a stacked draft because you've given yourself no room to delist proven duds, contract or not.

Agree an extra couple of picks would have been ideal. That said, we probably didn’t expect to get all 3 trade targets esp with only joining the Peatling race relatively late. That probably hamstrung us, but clearly the key is we have prioritised getting mature players in different positions where each offers a clear upgrade or high end potential (Peatling).

After missing finals for so many years - and all of us SICK of it - we have prioritised getting hardened bodies for the now - which I think is the right strategy for us despite understanding the draft depth sounds excellent. But we already have so many gun (or potential gun) juniors trying to make the team inc the lads from last years draft, pick 4, a returning Milera (makes my team if fit) and 3 new automatic ins. Tam selection is going to be genuinely difficult this year, our squad is in a good spot.

Besides Smith (which I agree was a mistake keeping on after hitting trigger) not sure we are carrying too many others we could have delisted this year. We need Burgess and Strachan for cheap backup but both need replacing with mature bodies.

 

[119others]

Very unlikely Langford

Why is that Wayne?

 

[119others]

Welsh was never a potential top 10 pick this year, not anywhere with any sort of credibility.

Genuine question. Do you have insight or intel with club or recruiters? There was talk about him being around the top 10 mark last year or even earlier this year

EDIT 7th ESPN player rankings also includes Smith, Smilie, Draper, Lombard, Lalor Ashcroft and FOS in the top 10. Not credible??

Way-too-early AFL Draft Power Rankings: The top 10 in 2024

The 2023 AFL Draft may be over, but the draft watch never stops. Jasper Chellappah shares his way-too-early top 10 Power Rankings for 2024's draft class.

www.espn.co.uk

 

[119others]

Keeping Smith is one of the worst most criminal list management things we have done in recent times, ESPECIALLY when we knew we were getting Cumming.

Its makes absolutely 0 sense. Bewildering.

I think most would agree with Smith but cmon we didn’t know with any certainty about Cumming. perhaps go back to the thread in his few days of indecision before nominating us and see the fear that so many had about missing him after missing Luko. Crazy stuff saying we knew we were getting him

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Why is that Wayne?

He recorded a poor 20m sprint time (slow) .....with the midfield availability of Dawson & Curtin as big bodied Mids, and the increasing emphasis on midfield class & speed, IMO Langford isn't a good fit at the Crows

It does not mean Langford is a poor player, just that our need is more about speed and outside class

Just look at who we've been associated with trade wise ..... Luggage, and Gulden ...pretty indicative of the player type we have in mind

 

[119others]

I cant see us doing a live trade at our Pick 4 if Draper is still on the table to slide to Pick 6.

Our intel would have to be 100% rock solid, that Draper wouldnt go at 4 or 5. Its a high risk.

Agree it’s suicidal. If we are lucky he is there just grab him. Imagine the regret if Dees pop up at 5 and call bus name

 

[119others]

He recorded a poor 20m sprint time (slow) .....with the midfield availability of Dawson & Curtin as big bodied Mids, and the increasing emphasis on midfield class & speed, IMO Langford isn't a good fit at the Crows

It does not mean Langford is a poor player, just that our need is more about speed and outside class

Just look at who we've been associated with trade wise ..... Luggage, and Gulden ...pretty indicative of the player type we have in mind

Ok cheers and I tend to agree without really knowing much about the youngsters. I would go the more athletic pacy midfielder also - Draper ideally but sound like Smith might be the best option assuming Lalor, FOS and Draper already gone (seems to be the latest thoughts? No doubt things will keep changing over coming weeks)

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Ok cheers and I tend to agree without really knowing much about the youngsters. I would go the more athletic pacy midfielder also - Draper ideally but sound like Smith might be the best option assuming Lalor, FOS and Draper already gone (seems to be the latest thoughts? No doubt things will keep changing over coming weeks)

Smith the elite extractor, accumulator .....questions around hurt factor with disposals
FOS, less disposals, but higher hurt factor than Smith

Because of RICH's love affair with Dusty ....you can bet, Lalor ends up at RICH

I'll be happy with Draper, or any of that top 4 rated players (exc Ashcroft)

 

[Mutineer]

Yep 2 of the big Vic. Clubs are interested and met with family.

They would have to be real interested if they headed over Penong way surely?

 

[Mostyn]

Keeping Smith is one of the worst most criminal list management things we have done in recent times, ESPECIALLY when we knew we were getting Cumming.

Its makes absolutely 0 sense. Bewildering.

It's not criminal. FFS, not everything needs to be reacted to like it's a 'sky is falling' disaster.

It's not ideal, and it's what turned our offseason from an A to maybe a B+.

We have too much depth in the running half back position, and probably not enough height.

It's disappointing, but it's not a disaster.

 

[Mostyn]

Theres some long bows being drawn here.

So what you're saying is that you'd rather keep 2 of our lowest paid players on our list rather than pay one of them out to provide a youngster an opportunity in a loaded draft.

I think thats what you're saying, but I cant believe anyone would be that silly

You've got things in the wrong order.

In order to cut someone for 2025, we needed to decide at the end of 2023 that we weren't going to spend all of our salary cap in 2024.

That we were going to deliberately underspend. That's the only way for us to still have money handing around that we could use to cut someone.

Maybe someone can make a case for doing that, but I'd rather we used every dollar we have at every available opportunity.

 

[Big Dub]

We say that sort of thing every year. There's been a ruckman or two every year recently, and often they amount to nothing.

Being drafted early as a ruck doesn't mean you're that likely to succeed. Being a rookie draftee seems about as likely.

If we want to invest a F1 in a ruckman, target a 22 year old to trade for. You'll have seen more runs on the board - and they almost never cost that much.

Delist Strachan and Burgess, then pick up 20yo 206cm Max Knobel as a dfa and take a late/rookie ruck.

Knobel may not be as good as Strachan next year, but if ROB goes down Strachan won't save our season either. And Knobel should improve as Strachan declines.

We can go to 105% of salary cap this year and 95% next. Doubt there's a significant net cap investment after only 50% of rookie salary amounts counting toward the salary cap. And it's a good investment.

Low risk, low cost, potential high uupside.and we just do it all again next year if it doesn't work.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Smith the elite extractor, accumulator .....questions around hurt factor with disposals
FOS, less disposals, but higher hurt factor than Smith

Because of RICH's love affair with Dusty ....you can bet, Lalor ends up at RICH

I'll be happy with Draper, or any of that top 4 rated players (exc Ashcroft)

Finally, a draft period where we agree

 

[George Kramer]

Theres some long bows being drawn here.

So what you're saying is that you'd rather keep 2 of our lowest paid players on our list rather than pay one of them out to provide a youngster an opportunity in a loaded draft.

I think thats what you're saying, but I cant believe anyone would be that silly

Do you want to point out to him we put a big offer to Luko so we’ve got cap space to cut players

 

[Big Dub]

He recorded a poor 20m sprint time (slow) .....with the midfield availability of Dawson & Curtin as big bodied Mids, and the increasing emphasis on midfield class & speed, IMO Langford isn't a good fit at the Crows

It does not mean Langford is a poor player, just that our need is more about speed and outside class

Just look at who we've been associated with trade wise ..... Luggage, and Gulden ...pretty indicative of the player type we have in mind

I'd go Langford over Smith, because I think Langford has more hurt factor. We've also got Rankine and Peatling (and to lesser extent Edwards) for pace and burst.

Ideally Smith or Langford goes top 3, then we can get the exact type of mid we want.

But gee, we're splitting hairs. They're all pretty good.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Do you want to point out to him we put a big offer to Luko so we’ve got cap space to cut players

Was it known how big our offer was in the end?

Im guessing once he rejected us, part of that chunk of money would’ve gone towards Peatling + bumping up Cumming’s to get him over the line