Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread

[Mutineer]

Stream down for the Rebels vs Chargers gane and wouldn't you know it Rebels pile on 2 goals and hit the lead.

 

[Mutineer]

3/4 time
Rebels 10.8
Chargers 7.10

Jagga Smith getting plenty of it, Sam Lalor now very influential at the coalface and around the ground, Jack Ough now coming into the game, Chargers talls Charlie Richardson and Quin McKay supreme in the air. Game could go either way with the Chargers coming home with the breeze.

 

[Danger in Texas]

3/4 time
Rebels 10.8
Chargers 7.10

Jagga Smith getting plenty of it, Sam Lalor now very influential at the coalface and around the ground, Jack Ough now coming into the game, Chargers talls Charlie Richardson and Quin McKay supreme in the air. Game could go either way with the Chargers coming home with the breeze.

Unwin playing?

 

[huludicidal]

Pick 4 locked and loaded. Who do we pick ?
I like Draper for our existing midfield

Simply must be Jagga Smith, Draper or Lalor for mine.

Jagga is probably only a 20-25% chance of making it through to our pick, so that part of the decision is likely made for us.

Draper probably a 40-50% chance of being taken by West Coast at pick 3.

Lalor will almost definitely be available to us.

It’s also highly possible that at least one of the clubs with a top 3 pick trade down (ideal draft to do this in), so that may change the landscape.


Smith has the edge in terms of consistency, pure production and having the “highest floor” of any of these guys. He’s the safest pick. For that reason, he probably goes to Richmond, North or West Coast (or a club trading into the top 3), but it’s not completely out of the question that he’s there for us. A few queries over his small frame, but Zak Butters weighed 70kg at the same age and I don’t share these concerns. Do we need another 180-182cm mid though? Seems unlikely to matter as he’s probably off the board.

Draper gets the edge in terms of pure speed, no risk of go home factor, and being the “hardest worker” of the 3. Like Jagga, a slight query over whether we need another 180-182cm mid, and his kicking is not exactly a strength. A very safe pick for us, and if he’s on the board, I’d be pretty stunned if we didn’t call his name out.

Lalor has the edge in terms of size, brute strength and the versatility to go forward a la Petracca / Ricciuto / Dusty, in addition to being a clearance beast. Question marks over being injury-prone, but Lalor really is the one of these 3 who brings something to our list that we do not already possess. If Draper does go in the top 3, this is the name I want to hear the most.



Obviously the trio of Smillie, O’Sullivan and Langford are somewhat in the frame around our selection too.

Smillie has regressed this year (unrelated to injuries) which is NEVER a good indicator of a star AFL midfield career, O’Sullivan feels like a strong go-home factor and some durability concerns have emerged there, and Langford lacks the explosive athleticism / agility that a midfield containing Matt Crouch, Jordan Dawson, Billy Dowling, Zac Taylor, Lachie Sholl and Daniel Curtin (and Berry if we inexplicably retain him - read: our midfield is slow as fkuc other than Rankine, Soligo and the untried Edwards) really requires.


If we find a way to NOT pick any of Draper, Lalor or Smith I’ll be on record as saying it’s a pretty ridiculous decision. Any of those 3 I’ll be happy though.


A big key will also be trying to trade up into the teens to take another first round talent - there’s just so much value there this year. Lindsay, J Berry, Travaglia, B Allan, Dodson are my favourites there. Allan probably not a great list fit, but the rest are.

Future first (probably not a great idea but if there’s a guy there we rate as a top 8-10 talent, maybe we pull trigger), Keane, Berry, Dees 2nd rounder, our 3rd rounder, future 2nd rounder, Laird (lol), potentially the bottom band of FA compo for Himmelberg, McHenry (lol), Schoenberg (lol), Murphy (lol) = plenty of trade capital to potentially get into the teens if there’s a team willing to bite - Gold Coast, Freo and Brisbane are by far the most logical trade partners in terms of acquiring a pick.


Personally I am a big fan of trading out both Keane and Berry this offseason to improve our draft position.

We will never be playing all 4 of Keane, Worrell, N Murray and Butts in the same side, and Keane is the one I’d shake loose while he has value. Too many dumb mistakes. Should fetch a pick around 25 or a future 2nd from a club outside the 8. Pies the most likely destination.

Berry is just objectively not a best 22 AFL player for a squad like ours which already lacks skill and speed, so if anyone offers a top 40 pick you pull any contract offer to Berry, take the pick and run.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

He’s probably #2 behind Lombard for me, now

I think he could absolutely be a high-end production guy, maybe Treloar is a good comparison?

Yep that type of level sounds fair

Slightly concerned re his handball ratio but that can be coached ie use your legs and speed then kick

 

[119others]

we clearly dont want Welsh kicking bags next week (and possibly finals). its not going to take much for him to be talked about as a top 20-25 option again if kicking bags against men. either way, i think we will need to trade Dees second rounder UP to avoid the chance of Welsh bid on before our (Dees) pick 27ish https://www.zerohanger.com/afl/afl-draft-order-2024/

So wonder what it will take to move pick 25 to say 18-21? A future second rounder? You always need to give up a bit in these situations. Also we are renowned for historically bidding as aggressively as any other team on FA/Academy players so just needs one jilted club (think Swans still pissed about Dawson) bidding early on Welsh.

Trading in players will also complicate it but ideally we get pick 4 elite mid, pick 27 AND then Welsh from the draft but not sure this will be possible. Next years draft seemingly much weaker and 2025 draft value being rerated makes second and third rounders less valuable from my understanding eg not sure Suns will accept a future second for Luko
/ Dees a third rounder for those reasons

 

[Mutineer]

Final scores

Rebels 12.13
Chargers 10.12

Ollie Hannaford the best on ground with his 5 goals, Jagga Smith prolific ball winner, used it well mostly but a bit of a stat padder at times with the old 1/2, Lalor, Ough and Unwin probably won the midfield battle in the end though I thought Louis Emmett got the better of Flynn Penry in the ruck on the day.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Simply must be Jagga Smith, Draper or Lalor for mine.

Jagga is probably only a 20-25% chance of making it through to our pick, so that part of the decision is likely made for us.

Draper probably a 40-50% chance of being taken by West Coast at pick 3.

Lalor will almost definitely be available to us.

It’s also highly possible that at least one of the clubs with a top 3 pick trade down (ideal draft to do this in), so that may change the landscape.


Smith has the edge in terms of consistency, pure production and having the “highest floor” of any of these guys. He’s the safest pick. For that reason, he probably goes to Richmond, North or West Coast (or a club trading into the top 3), but it’s not completely out of the question that he’s there for us. A few queries over his small frame, but Zak Butters weighed 70kg at the same age and I don’t share these concerns. Do we need another 180-182cm mid though? Seems unlikely to matter as he’s probably off the board.

Draper gets the edge in terms of pure speed, no risk of go home factor, and being the “hardest worker” of the 3. Like Jagga, a slight query over whether we need another 180-182cm mid, and his kicking is not exactly a strength. A very safe pick for us, and if he’s on the board, I’d be pretty stunned if we didn’t call his name out.

Lalor has the edge in terms of size, brute strength and the versatility to go forward a la Petracca / Ricciuto / Dusty, in addition to being a clearance beast. Question marks over being injury-prone, but Lalor really is the one of these 3 who brings something to our list that we do not already possess. If Draper does go in the top 3, this is the name I want to hear the most.



Obviously the trio of Smillie, O’Sullivan and Langford are somewhat in the frame around our selection too.

Smillie has regressed this year (unrelated to injuries) which is NEVER a good indicator of a star AFL midfield career, O’Sullivan feels like a strong go-home factor and some durability concerns have emerged there, and Langford lacks the explosive athleticism / agility that a midfield containing Matt Crouch, Jordan Dawson, Billy Dowling, Zac Taylor, Lachie Sholl and Daniel Curtin (and Berry if we inexplicably retain him - read: our midfield is slow as fkuc other than Rankine, Soligo and the untried Edwards) really requires.


If we find a way to NOT pick any of Draper, Lalor or Smith I’ll be on record as saying it’s a pretty ridiculous decision. Any of those 3 I’ll be happy though.


A big key will also be trying to trade up into the teens to take another first round talent - there’s just so much value there this year. Lindsay, J Berry, Travaglia, B Allan, Dodson are my favourites there. Allan probably not a great list fit, but the rest are.

Future first (probably not a great idea but if there’s a guy there we rate as a top 8-10 talent, maybe we pull trigger), Keane, Berry, Dees 2nd rounder, our 3rd rounder, future 2nd rounder, Laird (lol), potentially the bottom band of FA compo for Himmelberg, McHenry (lol), Schoenberg (lol), Murphy (lol) = plenty of trade capital to potentially get into the teens if there’s a team willing to bite - Gold Coast, Freo and Brisbane are by far the most logical trade partners in terms of acquiring a pick.


Personally I am a big fan of trading out both Keane and Berry this offseason to improve our draft position.

We will never be playing all 4 of Keane, Worrell, N Murray and Butts in the same side, and Keane is the one I’d shake loose while he has value. Too many dumb mistakes. Should fetch a pick around 25 or a future 2nd from a club outside the 8. Pies the most likely destination.

Berry is just objectively not a best 22 AFL player for a squad like ours which already lacks skill and speed, so if anyone offers a top 40 pick you pull any contract offer to Berry, take the pick and run.

Good summary

Agree with most , I’d prob keep Keane unless we are happy to have Borlaise play alot of games as Butts does cop injuries

Worrell is our star tall defender and Murray will be much better next year off a full pre season

Agree re Berry , he’s a trade with anything better than pick 45 IMO , likely gets squeezed out by our top 5 draft pick anyway eventually , would have been better if he played better last night as the poor ball handling would have out off some clubs scouting him

 

[Mutineer]

Unwin playing?

Played midfield today and did well too.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Final scores

Rebels 12.13
Chargers 10.12

Ollie Hannaford the best on ground with his 5 goals, Jagga Smith prolific ball winner, used it well mostly but a bit of a stat padder at times with the old 1/2, Lalor, Ough and Unwin probably won the midfield battle in the end though I thought Louis Emmett got the better of Flynn Penry in the ruck on the day.

Looking forward to watching this game back

You think Lalor would have had 20+ possessions ? How did his ability to get the ball and power into some space to kick look ?

 

[Danger in Texas]

Simply must be Jagga Smith, Draper or Lalor for mine.

Jagga is probably only a 20-25% chance of making it through to our pick, so that part of the decision is likely made for us.

Draper probably a 40-50% chance of being taken by West Coast at pick 3.

Lalor will almost definitely be available to us.

It’s also highly possible that at least one of the clubs with a top 3 pick trade down (ideal draft to do this in), so that may change the landscape.


Smith has the edge in terms of consistency, pure production and having the “highest floor” of any of these guys. He’s the safest pick. For that reason, he probably goes to Richmond, North or West Coast (or a club trading into the top 3), but it’s not completely out of the question that he’s there for us. A few queries over his small frame, but Zak Butters weighed 70kg at the same age and I don’t share these concerns. Do we need another 180-182cm mid though? Seems unlikely to matter as he’s probably off the board.

Draper gets the edge in terms of pure speed, no risk of go home factor, and being the “hardest worker” of the 3. Like Jagga, a slight query over whether we need another 180-182cm mid, and his kicking is not exactly a strength. A very safe pick for us, and if he’s on the board, I’d be pretty stunned if we didn’t call his name out.

Lalor has the edge in terms of size, brute strength and the versatility to go forward a la Petracca / Ricciuto / Dusty, in addition to being a clearance beast. Question marks over being injury-prone, but Lalor really is the one of these 3 who brings something to our list that we do not already possess. If Draper does go in the top 3, this is the name I want to hear the most.



Obviously the trio of Smillie, O’Sullivan and Langford are somewhat in the frame around our selection too.

Smillie has regressed this year (unrelated to injuries) which is NEVER a good indicator of a star AFL midfield career, O’Sullivan feels like a strong go-home factor and some durability concerns have emerged there, and Langford lacks the explosive athleticism / agility that a midfield containing Matt Crouch, Jordan Dawson, Billy Dowling, Zac Taylor, Lachie Sholl and Daniel Curtin (and Berry if we inexplicably retain him - read: our midfield is slow as fkuc other than Rankine, Soligo and the untried Edwards) really requires.


If we find a way to NOT pick any of Draper, Lalor or Smith I’ll be on record as saying it’s a pretty ridiculous decision. Any of those 3 I’ll be happy though.


A big key will also be trying to trade up into the teens to take another first round talent - there’s just so much value there this year. Lindsay, J Berry, Travaglia, B Allan, Dodson are my favourites there. Allan probably not a great list fit, but the rest are.

Future first (probably not a great idea but if there’s a guy there we rate as a top 8-10 talent, maybe we pull trigger), Keane, Berry, Dees 2nd rounder, our 3rd rounder, future 2nd rounder, Laird (lol), potentially the bottom band of FA compo for Himmelberg, McHenry (lol), Schoenberg (lol), Murphy (lol) = plenty of trade capital to potentially get into the teens if there’s a team willing to bite - Gold Coast, Freo and Brisbane are by far the most logical trade partners in terms of acquiring a pick.


Personally I am a big fan of trading out both Keane and Berry this offseason to improve our draft position.

We will never be playing all 4 of Keane, Worrell, N Murray and Butts in the same side, and Keane is the one I’d shake loose while he has value. Too many dumb mistakes. Should fetch a pick around 25 or a future 2nd from a club outside the 8. Pies the most likely destination.

Berry is just objectively not a best 22 AFL player for a squad like ours which already lacks skill and speed, so if anyone offers a top 40 pick you pull any contract offer to Berry, take the pick and run.

I don’t know if Smith will be off the board. Twomey has Langford quite high (which makes me think he’s highly rated in clubland), so Rich/NM could have some level of interest in him early. Possibly the same with FOS (though a lot can change in 3 months)

 

[Mutineer]

Looking forward to watching this game back

You think Lalor would have had 20+ possessions ? How did his ability to get the ball and power into some space to kick look ?

Yes and yes, took time to work into the game but took that signiture big overhead mark as well,

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Is there any footage of him using his speed and power to get himself or the ball out of congestion? My concern on what I’ve seen so far is that he’s like a bee in a bottle - extremely high energy, but not very effective in tight spaces.

Plenty of examples of that , the kick at the end of it isn’t always very pure though

Seen the edits that the Essendon poster puts up ? He’s got a thread of vids on main draft board

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Yes and yes, took time to work into the game but took that signiture overhead mark as well,

Careful ….. Wayne is getting excited !

Would be a weapon to have him and Dawson that can mark like that overhead

I also liked his leadership in the country v metro game when emotions were high , just the kind of attitude we could have used last night when Rankine got whacked instead of the rubbish we dished out

 

[Mutineer]

Unwin playing?

If you watch the replay you won't pick Rhys Unwin, gone are the flowing locks, now sporting the Rachele cut.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I don’t know if Smith will be off the board. Twomey has Langford quite high (which makes me think he’s highly rated in clubland), so Rich/NM could have some level of interest in him early. Possibly the same with FOS (though a lot can change in 3 months)

I wonder if watching Langford play VFL today might have brought his rep back a peg or 2

Had some nice moments but that lack of speed / agility was much more noticeable at the higher level , looked flat footed

 

[Jeffcrowe]

The more I've seen of all the prospects he's what we actually need.
The footskills don't worry me, most top end talent midfielders aren't amazing by foot. Butters is an exception.

I think he’s close to the best of what we could hope for too given there’s no absolute standouts

 

[Danger in Texas]

I wonder if watching Langford play VFL today might have brought his rep back a peg or 2

Had some nice moments but that lack of speed / agility was much more noticeable at the higher level , looked flat footed

Yeah interesting, looks like Travaglia out-performed him by quite a way on paper

 

[Mutineer]

Jonty Faull never really got going today, Chargers way better delivery but Rebels the better scrappers, Really liked the game of Louis Emmett 198cm for the Chargers though on the short side for an AFL ruck thought he had the better of Fynn Penry in the ruck and took some really big contested grabs, one to watch for next year especially if he grows 3 or 4 cms.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Shanahan 5 goals for Essendon VFL, btw

 

[Mutineer]

Careful ….. Wayne is getting excited !

Would be a weapon to have him and Dawson that can mark like that overhead

I also liked his leadership in the country v metro game when emotions were high , just the kind of attitude we could have used last night when Rankine got whacked instead of the rubbish we dished out

Chargers have posted their bests which looks about right.


Rebels haven't as yet but mine would be
Hannaford, Lalor, Unwin, Ough, Lloyd, Lawson

 

[WeeBlake]

Plenty of examples of that , the kick at the end of it isn’t always very pure though

Seen the edits that the Essendon poster puts up ? He’s got a thread of vids on main draft board

Yeah, those are the ones I’ve seen. Maybe I’m blind to it, but it seems he always goes in hard and gets it in tight and is immediately tackled or gets a low quality handball away.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Yeah interesting, looks like Travaglia out-performed him by quite a way on paper

Yep more suited easier role for Travaglia at this stage

Can walk into an afl side and play half back IMO

Couple of years then start to play mid

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Yeah, those are the ones I’ve seen. Maybe I’m blind to it, but it seems he always goes in hard and gets it in tight and is immediately tackled or gets a low quality handball away.

Plenty of examples of him kicking I50 although he is a happy handballer

Don’t see him lacing out many forwards by foot , nice one against vic country at princess park

 

[Trigger13]

If Hamish picks Smillie, I’ll spew.