Analysis 2024 National Draft

Who do you want at our first pick?

  • Bo Allan

    Votes: 7 2.0%
  • Joe Berry

    Votes: 34 9.8%
  • Tobie Travaglia

    Votes: 15 4.3%
  • Harry Armstrong

    Votes: 9 2.6%
  • Jobe Shanahan

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Xavier Lindsay

    Votes: 5 1.4%
  • Taj Hotton

    Votes: 15 4.3%
  • Other

    Votes: 10 2.9%
  • Sid Draper

    Votes: 121 34.8%
  • Finn O'Sullivan

    Votes: 45 12.9%
  • Sam Lalor

    Votes: 21 6.0%
  • Josh Smillie

    Votes: 2 0.6%
  • Jagga Smith

    Votes: 64 18.4%

  • Total voters
    348
  • This poll will close: .

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Sat and watched some full games to put the highlights in perspective and came away with a wildly different set of rankings.

Honestly, don't think anyone in this draft comes near Harley Reid, McKercher, Sheezel etc. Some big ball winners like Jagga but I don't see any amazing kicks or damaging players at the top end except Murphy Reid.

Jagga Smith and Murphy Reid are my faves for this draft, though I'd happy with Langford, Lalor and Draper too. O'Sullivan for me just hasn't produced enough this year and reminds me of the talk around SPS in his u18 year after an amazing u17 year.

Will be shocked if someone bids on Ben Campo before 40 and I don't think we'd select either of the twins if they had a different surname. Ben is a good talent though, good build and applies himself well and gets where the ball is. Not damaging at all though. Lucas I'll withhold comment on.

Armstrong and Kako are guns, Essendon will be spewing they aren't in a position to land both. Kako is extremely clean and has great skills and marks well for his height.

I simply didn't see Lalor get it enough or hit enough good kicks to be in the discussion with Dusty or De Goey. Draper has good traits but didn't watch him take a game by the scruff of the neck like Murphy Reid did. Reid obviously looks to have modelled his game on Daicos. Like a poor man's version of Nick, which is still worthy of a pick 3
Nice post zee. Because you think the top end isn't as good as the last couple of drafts, would you have preferred to hold onto 12 and 14?
 
I’m not an informed or good enough judge of potential draftees to know the difference really. I like that whoever we get would seem to bring something complimentary or different to our current midfield, which is needed. A POD with sideways movement or breakaway speed or forward threat marking or (god forbid) an ability to kick well.

The crop at the top all seeem capable though they’re quite undersized by AFL standard. Our current midfielders are brutes by comparison. I can imagine someone smaller and zippier being a good piece though.

I tend to be in the camp that we’ve traded a helluva lot away for this one throw of the dice, so whoever it is, hope we get it right.
 

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So from my observation the main question mark around Jagga is whether he will fill out and if he has the body frame to grow into a size to match it with AFL level mids.
Game is changing I think where big bodied mids is not where the game is going. We’ve got enough of those at present. What we lack are mids with break away speed, quick thinking, quick hands like Daicos and Ashcroft who are not big bodied but can move and link play through the centre corridor.

Don’t think Lalor is that type. More so Smith, Draper or FOS who I think we should target in that order depending on availability.
 
Game is changing I think where big bodied mids is not where the game is going. We’ve got enough of those at present. What we lack are mids with break away speed, quick thinking, quick hands like Daicos and Ashcroft who are not big bodied but can move and link play through the centre corridor.

Don’t think Lalor is that type. More so Smith, Draper or FOS who I think we should target in that order depending on availability.
For comparison:
Naicos - quite slim, however immense football brain
Neale - strong core
Ashcroft - strong frame

Ollie Holland, Kade Simpson =courageous but skinny
 
Nice post zee. Because you think the top end isn't as good as the last couple of drafts, would you have preferred to hold onto 12 and 14?
The top 5 are all ready to go, whereas a kid like Joe Berry would have to wait a bit before getting game time. If you could guarantee Tauru or a concussion-less Trainor with one of the picks I'd leap at it - but the game changing type mids are in the top 6-7.

The Tigers trialled 3 or 4 guys in their VFL and wanted Smillie and Reid to play too but it wasn't approved. Goes to show even they have some question marks on the top pick (though I suspect some were trialled for selection at pick 6).

The Vic Metro v Country game was a really high quality match (albeit ruined by an umpire at the end). I would encourage folks to watch it in full and not rely on highlights like I was previously. It's like watching Blake Acres highlights and only seeing dump kicks without understanding how involved he is in every play.
 
So, from my observation the main question mark around Jagga is whether he will fill out and if he has the body frame to grow into a size to match it with AFL level mids.

That's my concern too. Though I think he relies on agility and quick thinking more than strength as an inside mid. He doesn't really break a lot of tackles even as a junior. More evades them so size isn't as important. I also think at AFL level he will play as a more balanced mid instead of a primary extractor so the role will be slightly different and more suited to his body shape.
 
Sat and watched some full games to put the highlights in perspective and came away with a wildly different set of rankings.

Honestly, don't think anyone in this draft comes near Harley Reid, McKercher, Sheezel etc. Some big ball winners like Jagga but I don't see any amazing kicks or damaging players at the top end except Murphy Reid.

Jagga Smith and Murphy Reid are my faves for this draft, though I'd happy with Langford, Lalor and Draper too. O'Sullivan for me just hasn't produced enough this year and reminds me of the talk around SPS in his u18 year after an amazing u17 year.

Will be shocked if someone bids on Ben Campo before 40 and I don't think we'd select either of the twins if they had a different surname. Ben is a good talent though, good build and applies himself well and gets where the ball is. Not damaging at all though. Lucas I'll withhold comment on.

Armstrong and Kako are guns, Essendon will be spewing they aren't in a position to land both. Kako is extremely clean and has great skills and marks well for his height.

I simply didn't see Lalor get it enough or hit enough good kicks to be in the discussion with Dusty or De Goey. Draper has good traits but didn't watch him take a game by the scruff of the neck like Murphy Reid did. Reid obviously looks to have modelled his game on Daicos. Like a poor man's version of Nick, which is still worthy of a pick 3
I’ll disagree only with your second paragraph. Josh Smillie is big time impact. Don’t care if he’s Cripps size, he’s a bull mid that can impact games. He can also go forward and play that 3rd tall. Touted early on as #1 pick potential and nothing has changed my belief. Trading with RICH for 6 and 11 would be ideal, but I’d take him at 1 also. The days of the Cripps, Bonts and Greens are far from over. Going to the bench after a goal is what should be over. Rest your bull mid in the forward line. Smillie measured 195.5. I’ll take all that. Cripps is also 29.
 

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Can’t see the Roos trading back from pick 2. The only suitable trading partner is Richmond, and the Roos will be spooked that the Dees might grab Tauru at 5.

Early top 5 prediction is:
1. Lalor
2. Tauru
3. FOS
4. Draper
5. Smith

Regardless at pick 3, we’ll have a few high quality players on the board that can impact next year and I have full faith that we’ll select a great player with Austin and Wright at the helm.

It really was fantastic trading to walk away with pick 3 in such a good draft. That pick swap with Hawthorn was an inspired idea. Both teams really backed West Coast into a corner and left them no choice but to fold on both the Baker trade and the Barass trade.
 
Can’t see the Roos trading back from pick 2. The only suitable trading partner is Richmond, and the Roos will be spooked that the Dees might grab Tauru at 5.

Early top 5 prediction is:
1. Lalor
2. Tauru
3. FOS
4. Draper
5. Smith

Regardless at pick 3, we’ll have a few high quality players on the board that can impact next year and I have full faith that we’ll select a great player with Austin and Wright at the helm.

It really was fantastic trading to walk away with pick 3 in such a good draft. That pick swap with Hawthorn was an inspired idea. Both teams really backed West Coast into a corner and left them no choice but to fold on both the Baker trade and the Barass trade.
Not sure WCE folded on the barass trade- has set them up well for next year

Their fault was trading in a player in Baker who still had loyalty to Richmond and wanted them compensated. It was their commitment to Baker that caused them the grief imo
 
It's funny how hell-bent Richmond supporters are on getting Lalor and FOS when they aren't getting much love here. Everyone's seeing the same footage. Not a criticism. Just interesting.
I come in peace. Well done on executing that trade with WC. You were the envy of the comp when that dropped.

What I find funny (not criticism) is how much your board loves Draper. I’m concerned about his lack of polish and propensity to panic with ball in hand, tends to put the receiver under pressure. He doesn’t hit the scoreboard all that often either.

Now, I know these kids are not perfect and there’s plenty of improvement to come. Im just concerned that he won’t be able to iron out his panicky ways/lack of poise? It’s why I’d be happy for Jagga to slide to us at 4. But, hey, what would I know.

Interesting times ahead, nonetheless. Good luck.
 
After actually doing genuine research (looking passed just the tantalising highlights)

My tier list of want is as follows

1a - Reid
1b - Smith
2 - Draper
3 - FOS
4 - Langford (know he’s slowish, but, he’s got a lot of potential with that left peg and his goalscoring ability.

I would’ve had Lalor in the 1 category, but he’s the only one I’m certain will be gone before our pick.
 
So from my observation the main question mark around Jagga is whether he will fill out and if he has the body frame to grow into a size to match it with AFL level mids.
I think he will fill out but not a crazy amount. I think he will get to a size similar to Gulden but obviously taller than Gulden.

I’m not fazed by him being a little light on. The kid dominates
 
Not sure WCE folded on the barass trade- has set them up well for next year

Their fault was trading in a player in Baker who still had loyalty to Richmond and wanted them compensated. It was their commitment to Baker that caused them the grief imo
Agree Baker was the catalyst. Looking at the Barass trade in isolation, WC were asking for 14 plus a 2nd rounder. The deal ended up being a future first (less valuable than 14) plus a 2nd and a late pick.

The hawks walked away with an additional 2nd round pick than they would have if they accepted West Coast’s initial demands and we walked away with pick 3.
 
I come in peace. Well done on executing that trade with WC. You were the envy of the comp when that dropped.

What I find funny (not criticism) is how much your board loves Draper. I’m concerned about his lack of polish and propensity to panic with ball in hand, tends to put the receiver under pressure. He doesn’t hit the scoreboard all that often either.

Now, I know these kids are not perfect and there’s plenty of improvement to come. Im just concerned that he won’t be able to iron out his panicky ways/lack of poise? It’s why I’d be happy for Jagga to slide to us at 4. But, hey, what would I know.

Interesting times ahead, nonetheless. Good luck.
If Jagga, FOS & Lalor are taken top-3, do you take Draper, or someone else?
 
Richmond (more so their fans) see Lalor as Dusty Mark 2. I'd be surprised if they don't pick him even if they don't get pick 2 from North. If they get pick 2 they will 100% pick him and probably Jagga.
Just my 2 cents worth.
 
Agree Baker was the catalyst. Looking at the Barass trade in isolation, WC were asking for 14 plus a 2nd rounder. The deal ended up being a future first (less valuable than 14) plus a 2nd and a late pick.

The hawks walked away with an additional 2nd round pick than they would have if they accepted West Coast’s initial demands and we walked away with pick 3.
14 vs F1 - which is being more valuable depends on what they can do with it- if it’s enough to help them get Warner then I think they are probably ok
 

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Analysis 2024 National Draft

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