Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation Part 3

[Mutineer]

We lost to Richmond because EVERYONE had a bad day.

Strachan was the best tall on the ground before he was gassed halfway through the 2nd quarter.

J Dawson 3 Brownlow votes.

 

[Mutineer]

Out of interest, how do you explain ROB taking 4 marks in the first 4 rounds of the season?

Adelaide 0-4, season over
Senior player
No 1 ruck
In our leadership group

???

It's interesting to me that the club had no issue with it whatsoever. Just carry on, no biggie.

I just find it utterly unfathomable that we can be so tolerant of such a disgraceful non-effort.

Same way I'd explain that Strachan isn't AFL quality and never will be and he's been the only "other" option available.

ROB ain't great but at lest he's competitive at AFL level unlike Strachan and ROB's it until the club finally addresses our ruck situation seriously. Listening to Reid the other day I got the feeling they are now acutely aware we need to address that situation pronto. IMO we should always have a mature age back up ruck on our list and a young developing ruck as well.

 

[spenze]

Out of interest, how do you explain ROB taking 4 marks in the first 4 rounds of the season?

Adelaide 0-4, season over
Senior player
No 1 ruck
In our leadership group

???

It's interesting to me that the club had no issue with it whatsoever. Just carry on, no biggie.

I just find it utterly unfathomable that we can be so tolerant of such a disgraceful non-effort.

He was playing that badly he couldn't even hold a black mark against his name

 

[baldandbroke]

People throw 'first round pick' around like headlines use 'afl star'. Pick 24 and pick 19, technically first round in the year, but in reality they are reasonably speculative picks.

They were first round picks though, that’s all I said.

Pick 18 and pick 24.

All rucks are speculative at the draft.

Look, I’m in the “grab someone that’s proved they can handle AFL and isn’t top end expensive” when it comes to rucks.

This idea that we need to develop a couple of cheap options from the ground up ourselves over several years … “like Geelong do” … feels like a stretch to me.

Geelong haven’t had a really good ruck since Brad Ottens have they?

 

[Golumless]

Out of interest, how do you explain ROB taking 4 marks in the first 4 rounds of the season?

Adelaide 0-4, season over
Senior player
No 1 ruck
In our leadership group

???

It's interesting to me that the club had no issue with it whatsoever. Just carry on, no biggie.

I just find it utterly unfathomable that we can be so tolerant of such a disgraceful non-effort.

Considering the average marks a ruck takes a game is ~2.5, 1 may just be seen as within random variation in a small sample size.

Especially as ROB peeled off 18 disposals/9 clearances against Geelong, 5 clearances against Melbourne and winning >50% of hitouts in 3/4 games. The danger of picking one stat and deriving effort from it is that another stat usually will say the opposite story (outside of the Fremantle game, ROB was horrid there).

Though, that's really the problem with ROB. He's as average as it gets.

 

[1970crow]

Out of interest, how do you explain ROB taking 4 marks in the first 4 rounds of the season?

Adelaide 0-4, season over
Senior player
No 1 ruck
In our leadership group

???

It's interesting to me that the club had no issue with it whatsoever. Just carry on, no biggie.

I just find it utterly unfathomable that we can be so tolerant of such a disgraceful non-effort.

Checkout his hitout numbers though.

 

[1970crow]

They were first round picks though, that’s all I said.

Pick 18 and pick 24.

All rucks are speculative at the draft.

Look, I’m in the “grab someone that’s proved they can handle AFL and isn’t top end expensive” when it comes to rucks.

This idea that we need to develop a couple of cheap options from the ground up ourselves over several years … “like Geelong do” … feels like a stretch to me.

Geelong haven’t had a really good ruck since Brad Ottens have they?

What I'm saying is that 'first round' used to have meaning, it was picks 1-18. These days it can go to near 30, so it is a meaningless description. But it's often used to blur the lines between a speculative pick and one that should have had a high chance of success. McHenry is a classic example here, suggesting that wasting his pick is somehow to be grouped with '3 failed first rounders' with McAsey and Jones (currently) is a deliberate misdirection, whilst being factually accurate though. 'First round' has lost all credibility as a meaningful description.

 

[Mutineer]

They were first round picks though, that’s all I said.

Pick 18 and pick 24.

All rucks are speculative at the draft.

Look, I’m in the “grab someone that’s proved they can handle AFL and isn’t top end expensive” when it comes to rucks.

This idea that we need to develop a couple of cheap options from the ground up ourselves over several years … “like Geelong do” … feels like a stretch to me.

Geelong haven’t had a really good ruck since Brad Ottens have they?

De Koning wasn't drafted as a ruck, he was drafted as a KPP.
And his preferred position at Geelong is as a KPD.

Sam De Koning Draft Profile

DRAFT ANALYSIS: “A raw and versatile key position player, De Koning shone on the big stage this year to join the leading pack in a draft short of tall options.”

central.rookieme.com

 

[Scorpus]

Considering the average marks a ruck takes a game is ~2.5, 1 may just be seen as within random variation in a small sample size.

Especially as ROB peeled off 18 disposals/9 clearances against Geelong, 5 clearances against Melbourne and winning >50% of hitouts in 3/4 games. The danger of picking one stat and deriving effort from it is that another stat usually will say the opposite story (outside of the Fremantle game, ROB was horrid there).

Though, that's really the problem with ROB. He's as average as it gets.

If the average marks is 2.5 then over 4 games you would expect 10 marks on average. 4 is well below average.

The last three games of 2023 and the first four of 2024 O'Brien had an astonishing four matches (out of seven) with ZERO marks.

 

[Fritz n Sauce]

Only 4 still not on an AFL list and we happen to have one.

 

[El Doederino]

Same way I'd explain that Strachan isn't AFL quality and never will be and he's been the only "other" option available.

ROB ain't great but at lest he's competitive at AFL level unlike Strachan and ROB's it until the club finally addresses our ruck situation seriously. Listening to Reid the other day I got the feeling they are now acutely aware we need to address that situation pronto. IMO we should always have a mature age back up ruck on our list and a young developing ruck as well.

I am certain we are getting Draper from Essendon next year, so should only be a 1 year issue. Not that I rate Draper that highly, but he's a step up from Strachan.

 

[Vader]

I am certain we are getting Draper from Essendon next year, so should only be a 1 year issue. Not that I rate Draper that highly, but he's a step up from Strachan.

The problem is that Draper isn't a Strachan replacement - he's a ROB replacement, and he's a massive downgrade on ROB.

Draper will be the ROB replacement, but we also need to find a Strachan replacement at the same time.

 

[Cromulant]

I am certain we are getting Draper from Essendon next year, so should only be a 1 year issue. Not that I rate Draper that highly, but he's a step up from Strachan.

The aim should be a step up from ROB, then get someone else to be better than Strachan.

Draper isnt coming here to be a 2nd ruck, so either ROB is going or theres no point in us chasing Draper.

 

[Cromulant]

The problem is that Draper isn't a Strachan replacement - he's a ROB replacement, and he's a massive downgrade on ROB.

Draper will be the ROB replacement, but we also need to find a Strachan replacement at the same time.

I wouldnt say massive downgrade, but hes certainly not an upgrade.

 

[Vader]

I wouldnt say massive downgrade, but hes certainly not an upgrade.

Maybe not "massive", but definitely "significant".

 

[BRL121]

De Koning wasn't drafted as a ruck, he was drafted as a KPP.
And his preferred position at Geelong is as a KPD.

Sam De Koning Draft Profile

DRAFT ANALYSIS: “A raw and versatile key position player, De Koning shone on the big stage this year to join the leading pack in a draft short of tall options.”

central.rookieme.com

View attachment 2185146

Pretty interesting that nearly all the SA players have either failed, or are failing. I'm not sure about Mead: I don't know enough there.

 

[Cromulant]

Pretty interesting that nearly all the SA players have either failed, or are failing. I'm not sure about Mead: I don't know enough there.

Hes a handy player IMO, not a star but good enough to play a decent amount of games.

 

[baldandbroke]

What I'm saying is that 'first round' used to have meaning, it was picks 1-18. These days it can go to near 30, so it is a meaningless description. But it's often used to blur the lines between a speculative pick and one that should have had a high chance of success. McHenry is a classic example here, suggesting that wasting his pick is somehow to be grouped with '3 failed first rounders' with McAsey and Jones (currently) is a deliberate misdirection, whilst being factually accurate though. 'First round' has lost all credibility as a meaningful description.

True - I wasn’t trying to make it sound like they were a top 10 pick. I think even the extended first round is a significant cost for a ruck you need to develop … I don’t think it’s worth that personally.

 

[Mutineer]

I am certain we are getting Draper from Essendon next year, so should only be a 1 year issue. Not that I rate Draper that highly, but he's a step up from Strachan.

Marginal if at all re ROB though most certainly a step up from Strachan...but one thing that not up for question is Draper is a dead set tool.

 

[baldandbroke]

… one thing that not up for question is Draper is a dead set tool.

Why? Is this just your opinion on him based on your personal interactions Bicks?

Or is it because he flopped on a ball last year and got away with it - then joked with his mates that he couldn’t believe he got away with it?

 

[Lazy Sicilian]

I hope we target De Koning for our ruck

 

[Amacca 23]

Marginal if at all re ROB though most certainly a step up from Strachan...but one thing that not up for question is Draper is a dead set tool.

Hope not dont want draper he is a flog id rather grab barnett or henry smith

On SM-G996B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jenny61_99]

Still easier to catch in a bird bath!

Interesting this year about 28 players were traded across the 18 teams (including FA etc). 6 of those moved to SA, or about 22%. Given we are 2 of 18 clubs - SA batted well above average. Similar story last year as Port picked up 4 players and us 1.

Obviously quality comes into it but there is definitely some positive movement


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Port tend to trade dregs in though, so it doesn’t really count.

 

[GameofSloanes]

De Koning wasn't drafted as a ruck, he was drafted as a KPP.
And his preferred position at Geelong is as a KPD.

Sam De Koning Draft Profile

DRAFT ANALYSIS: “A raw and versatile key position player, De Koning shone on the big stage this year to join the leading pack in a draft short of tall options.”

central.rookieme.com

View attachment 2185146

Only 5 players in that team are duds, and we drafted 2 of them

 

[1970crow]

Port tend to trade dregs in though, so it doesn’t really count.

Consistent finalists off not many high end draft picks and trading in dregs. They must be heaps better than us at everything else related to preparing a footy team.