List Mgmt. 2024 Trade Thread - No.1

[gringo2011]

Just to be clear and as factual as possible and you or anyone else can correct me where I am wrong here.

Ben McKay triggered pick 3 with:
an average salary of 800k across his 6 years
Same age as battle is now (which is max points in their calculation)


Since last year. There has been a small cap increase this season. The big increase is next season …

Our offer to Battle is reportedly the above.

So it’s entirely believable that Battle receives the following offer to leave:

900k guarantee and 6 years



That triggers band 1. Which would be why Twomey is now declaring Battle is a band 1 compo “watch”.

There only been a handful of players that have netted the band one compo and nearly all have been to sides that were entrenched in the bottom rungs and looks like disguised priority picks.

Lance Franklin got a pick straight after the Hawks first pick and had the highest paid contract in history at the time.

Brisbane got pick 2 for Rockcliff, Frawley and McKay the others. All of this sides were absolutely bottomed out at the time except the Hawks.

Battle has to receive a top 5% contract in the competition to trigger it as a minimum. A lot will depend on what others are getting.

 

[stavro#4]

Yes, as a matter of policy we are able to see the contract for an RFA.

After reading your posts on the Battle contract negotiation, I have no reason so far to think Josh wouldn't be dealing with us in good faith. That doesn't mean he stays though.

So… you think an agent will be telling us what monetary clauses/triggers a club puts in an offer and says match it?

I’d probably sack my agent if he wasn’t going back to my club saying I have an offer of XYZ and no triggers/clauses. All guaranteed and get as much possible for me.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

We tell battle that he's free to explore free agency but we have this 750 000 on the table.
He feels a bit offended but gets his agent working.
He goes and meets Geelong, they really impress him and he really likes the vibe of the place.
Geelong offer him a lowball , he's not happy, but he's still shitted of with the Saints for shopping him, and he kinda really does like the vibe at Geelong and he says he'll take it.
Saints say they'll match but because he's feeling offended he suggests that if they don't let him go he'll enter the draft.
Saints let him go and get end of second round pick.

You know people will take this as fact now don't you?

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

who made those comments? i don't re-call reading them and if they were said i think it's a bit silly... similar to the idea we are going to get a top 5 pick for battle

You were obviously enjoying some time away from the forum.

 

[stavro#4]

There only been a handful of players that have netted the band one compo and nearly all have been to sides that were entrenched in the bottom rungs and looks like disguised priority picks.

Lance Franklin got a pick straight after the Hawks first pick and had the highest paid contract in history at the time.

Brisbane got pick 2 for Rockcliff, Frawley and McKay the others. All of this sides were absolutely bottomed out at the time except the Hawks.

Battle has to receive a top 5% contract in the competition to trigger it as a minimum. A lot will depend on what others are getting.

All the big free agents are effectively gone and English looks like signing again with the Dogs.

Based on the 2023 wage report. Battle on 900k would practically be on the cusp of band 1.

Richer than ever: Surprise top earners as 19 players crack $1m

I’d urge you and anyone else who doubts the possibility to just stick to the facts. Remove the emotion and this belief we will always be bent over and smashed without lube.

 

[botts]

I think our club has been the most vocal when it comes to hand out. I can definitely see battle walking on a massive contract but the afl giving us a second round compo as punishment. It’s something they would do to prove a point

 

[phantom13]

if we dont get band 1 and battle is moving for more than mackay did,what is the amount more where we should say fxxx this and just give up,we are never ever going to get a fair shake?

i mean was mackay 800k?lets say battle is offered 100k more and leaves and we receive band 2,is that the time to say fxxx this,sorry saints but done

because surely we would just be fighting too many odds,on top of forwards who cant kick straight and an ordinary midfield

Fair question, I’m not sure. The afls “algorithm” or whatever they wanna call it ultimately gives them an out. Maybe they justify it by saying McKay is 4 inches taller? It’s a bush league so who know.

On the UFA 'Can't match' stuff

There's nothing stopping Battle negotiating with us and another club and letting each club know what the offer is and whether they want to match.

The 'match' stuff is when a restricted free agent, your existing club has the right to accept the contract offer from the other club and the player either signs it with his existing club or moves via a trade.

We can match the offer, but Battle can refuse it and just walk. It's just a different mechanism for RFAs.

I’d suggest it’s unlikely battle is leaving for the same or less. I think the “match” comment is as you say. We should offer him what he’s worth, maybe a touch more for potential/leadership but if someone wants to blow us out of the water well that’s exactly what the compo is supposed to help with.

 

[The Punter]

So… you think an agent will be telling us what monetary clauses/triggers a club puts in an offer and says match it?

I’d probably sack my agent if he wasn’t going back to my club saying I have an offer of XYZ and no triggers/clauses. All guaranteed and get as much possible for me.

So, now I'm getting a little confused. Does Battle want to stay, all things being equal? Because if he does, then he will inform the club "this is what it will take to get me to stay?". Also, I assume agents will do what their players instruct them to do.

On the "taking the emotion out of it" bit, I'd go easy. We're preparing for the worst as a defense mechanism because the worst is what nearly always happens to us. The AFL have not exactly earned our trust. I think if you expect most St Kilda fans to deal with this with brutal rationality, you're just setting yourself up to be disappointed (which is what we are trying to avoid by not assuming the AFL will give us a fair deal).

 

[gringo2011]

All the big free agents are effectively gone and English looks like signing again with the Dogs.

Based on the 2023 wage report. Battle on 900k would practically be on the cusp of band 1.

Richer than ever: Surprise top earners as 19 players crack $1m

I’d urge you and anyone else who doubts the possibility to just stick to the facts. Remove the emotion and this belief we will always be bent over and smashed without lube.

Well if he goes we'd better hope we get it or we'll be going backwards again and having to spend capital to get a replacement. Butt probably costs our third round pick and we are downgrading. If we get a mid 20s pick for Battle and have to pay to replace him it shows how shit the FA system is.

 

[stavro#4]

So, now I'm getting a little confused. Does Battle want to stay, all things being equal? Because if he does, then he will inform the club "this is what it will take to get me to stay?". Also, I assume agents will do what their players instruct them to do.

On the "taking the emotion out of it" bit, I'd go easy. We're preparing for the worst as a defense mechanism because the worst is what nearly always happens to us. The AFL have not exactly earned our trust. I think if you expect most St Kilda fans to deal with this with brutal rationality, you're just setting yourself up to be disappointed (which is what trying to avoid by not assuming the AFL will give us a fair deal).

Who knows if he wants to stay. I’m not Battle and I’m not sure if he gets offers 100k a year more then what we are offering it matters.

He and his family are apparently big Hawk fans. Does that have a pull? How much?

Can’t answer those questions. But this was a done deal 10 weeks ago. Now it’s not. That’s not even concerning. It’s alarming and if Dave Mission wants to tell supporters they are confident. Maybe he should address that point to drive confidence.

There are a number of posters who flat out deny it’s possible we could see band 1. When you take our the emotions and use the facts available.

Our reported offer. Measured against the most recent band 1 (McKay) and work it out against the 2023 player payments. It’s works out that it’s very close - but could trigger band 1 at 900k.

What we don’t know is who is on a guaranteed average and who is front loaded in those figures. But rough calculations shows it’s possible

 

[stavro#4]

Well if he goes we'd better hope we get it or we'll be going backwards again and having to spend capital to get a replacement. Butt probably costs our third round pick and we are downgrading. If we get a mid 20s pick for Battle and have to pay to replace him it shows how shit the FA system is.

Completely agree.

But we should be hopeful based on the noises we are hearing - if he leaves.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Its 5% , so top 40 player salaries.

There only been a handful of players that have netted the band one compo and nearly all have been to sides that were entrenched in the bottom rungs and looks like disguised priority picks.

Lance Franklin got a pick straight after the Hawks first pick and had the highest paid contract in history at the time.

Brisbane got pick 2 for Rockcliff, Frawley and McKay the others. All of this sides were absolutely bottomed out at the time except the Hawks.

Battle has to receive a top 5% contract in the competition to trigger it as a minimum. A lot will depend on what others are getting.

BJ ( pick 13)
Dale Thomas ( pick 10).
Franklin ( pick 19 )
James Frawley ( pick 3).
Tom Lynch ( pick 3 )
Daniher ( pick 7).
Zac Williams ( pick 10)
McKay ( pick 4 ).

I'm really struggling to see any who gave second tier compo, who should have made first.
I think the effect is that its easier to drag a star player out of a struggling team than from a top team.
Amazing Carlton paid so much for Zac..... oh and Dale.

 

[gringo2011]

Its 5% , so top 40 player salaries.


BJ ( pick 13)
Dale Thomas ( pick 10).
Franklin ( pick 19 )
James Frawley ( pick 3).
Tom Lynch ( pick 3 )
Daniher ( pick 7).
Zac Williams ( pick 10)
McKay ( pick 4 ).

I'm really struggling to see any who gave second tier compo, who should have made first.
I think the effect is that its easier to drag a star player out of a struggling team than from a top team.
Amazing Carlton paid so much for Zac..... oh and Dale.

Didn't Carlton pay up to get Warnock out of Freo and he was a massive spud too?

 

[Sainter93]

I really doubt anyone is paying $1million+ x 6 for Battle.

I'm always happy to admit I'm wrong on plenty of stuff. Unfortunately I'm a pessimist and nearly always been right.

With salary cap increases absolutely a team could pay that. McKay triggered band 1 compo last season for 800k. Even 900k this season could trigger band 1.

Not many free agents are left, a bidding war could ensue. Hawthorn in dire need of key backs and could well and truly pay overs.

 

[Sainter93]

Been telling people this for years but moving one out to get a gamble on a another isn't good list management.

Our midfield now has Dow- pick 3, Steele pick 20 something (academy), Crouch pick 2 (mini draft) and we have a few high pick on the list that are developing. Our natural pick will be top 6 this year and if we nail it we will end up with a quality mid.

Selling your kitchen to remodel the living room isn't a model.

So what do you suggest we do? Steele the only A grader there. We need more elite talent.

Battle isn’t the kitchen lol. He is a good player and that’s it. Not A grade. Not a superstar. Not a game changer. We need to be realistic and these are the kind of risks you need to take to improve your list.

 

[gringo2011]

With salary cap increases absolutely a team could pay that. McKay triggered band 1 compo last season for 800k. Even 900k this season could trigger band 1.

Not many free agents are left, a bidding war could ensue. Hawthorn in dire need of key backs and could well and truly pay overs.

We can only hope. Even $50k x 6 years is a significant amount of money. $1 Million is an absolute top shelf wage. If we were paying that to lure Battle I'd think we were insane.

 

[gringo2011]

So what do you suggest we do? Steele the only A grader there. We need more elite talent.

Battle isn’t the kitchen lol. He is a good player and that’s it. Not A grade. Not a superstar. Not a game changer. We need to be realistic and these are the kind of risks you need to take to improve your list.

He's at an age where his best footy is ahead of him. We have been moving one out and one in and usually downgrading for 15 years. At some point the expectation should be a pay off.

We should get access to a very good player this year and we need to nail that pick for a start. So far all of our trading in has been an absolute fail.

 

[Joffaboy]

We tell battle that he's free to explore free agency but we have this 750 000 on the table.
He feels a bit offended but gets his agent working.
He goes and meets Geelong, they really impress him and he really likes the vibe of the place.
Geelong offer him a lowball , he's not happy, but he's still shitted of with the Saints for shopping him, and he kinda really does like the vibe at Geelong and he says he'll take it.
Saints say they'll match but because he's feeling offended he suggests that if they don't let him go he'll enter the draft.
Saints let him go and get end of second round pick.

He is UFA

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[Joffaboy]

honestly... do you really think battle at 800k x 6 is getting band 1?

lets park what we want to happen and actually look at it objectively. do you really think a band 1 outcome is going to happen?

its funny the 800k x 6 is mentioned because thats the exact number reported here: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...s/news-story/0c75514e414fca53a92de3b595e9299d

i think people have determined the outcome they want which is a top 5 pick and then worked back from there.

That's what we offered so no we would not get band 1, we would get Josh Battle for 6 years.
Reported there is another offer much more.
800k × 6 triggered band 1 for McKay.

Battle is same age with substantially more in front of him with a very small sc increase.
If that came to pass and everyone is in agreement that the AFL does what they choose, he may well be band 1 using McKay as an example, or they may do it to placate Bassett who is leading the charge on the booster clubs free NGA's.

They are a law unto themselves and there are many if's and buts to any of this, but to dismiss it outright is to ignore what stav, phantom and others have opined with the facts in front of them.
Personally would prefer 6 x 800k accepted and we keep Josh Battle.
This talk of Butts and Lobb and others is deeply depressing.


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[snails13]

Why would you draft a player if he’s told you to his face that he doesn’t want to come?

What does Olly think?

 

[stavro#4]

honestly... do you really think battle at 800k x 6 is getting band 1?

lets park what we want to happen and actually look at it objectively. do you really think a band 1 outcome is going to happen?

its funny the 800k x 6 is mentioned because thats the exact number reported here: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...s/news-story/0c75514e414fca53a92de3b595e9299d

i think people have determined the outcome they want which is a top 5 pick and then worked back from there.

I’ve given the factual premise above.

No one is saying 800k gets band 1. But I’m not sure anyone on here thinks he will leave us for the same salary we have offered either.

As I outlined 900k should get us around the mark. Hence Twomey reporting it as a watch.

 

[phantom13]

I think it seems really clear that an offer to get Battle out of St.Kilda will almost certainly be north of $800k x 6 years.

Now the AFL in their infinite wisdom may decide that doesnt trigger band 1 compo, the compensation secret recipe is whatever bullshit they decide BUT with some Journo pressure and some degree of precedent with McKay it absolutely has to be a consideration.

I think anyone saying it definitively will or definitively wont be band 1 compo has rocks in their heads.

Its a live dog right now, whether you wanna be hopeful or pessimistic is entirely up to you but i tend to think the current admin has more of a clue about how to ensure IF we are gonna lose him, we maximise the return than many of their predecessors and ultimately if he walks for $900k x 6 (or more) and we get band 2 then i think you probably have to live with that cause its ALOT of money for a guy of Battles ability.

$900k is my personal cap if i was the list manager, everyone will have their own number in mind but band 1, to me, is 50/50 right now.

 

[Diehard Saint]

We have one high pick already coming. Cashing out your mid career players makes holes down the road. The old guys won't be there when the young guys develop and we won't have an older core of guys like Battle. We are in a perpetual cycle of shooting our feet and wondering what went wrong.

We struggle to put together a decent side. All of sudden we are finding cheaper better ones. Culture is worth something too. If we get another Paddy Dow instead of game changer we are two steps backwards and further away. Patience is wearing thin and going younger will send us bottom 4 for a few more years. At some point the club has to pay out or no one will be left to watch them.

Never get a better chance to get two very high draft picks though.
Just got to grab it now, with Tassie waiting in the wings.
One top draft pick a year is just not going to get us anywhere.
Sucks to lose Battle, if it happens, I like him, but come on, how many years have we been pleading for good mids.

The only player that would be a culture killer if we traded him (others may disagree) would be Max, a supporter of the Saints forever. These days it has to be a footy business decision.

 

[botts]

What does Olly think?

I call bullshit on this

 

[stavro#4]

To further help people understand why band 1 is genuine consideration.

It’s close to a $2m increase in cap next year. If you are able to land a free agent. You go big and ensure there is no contest from existing club or others. Most listed players have minimal built in increases. Which means you can soak up big deals to bring players in.

“The total player payments will jump from $15,022,778 in 2023 to $15,788,222 this year, before rising to $17.76m in 2025, $18.29m in 2026 and $18.44m in 2027.”