Player Watch #5 Jack Ross- Re-Signed until 2026

[JAKLAUGHING]

Wouldn't a softening of the game suit younger faster players who are not as physically strong?

And if the talent is spread more thinly is one of the reasons....then wouldn't that mean we would also observe a lift in the amount of 18-19yo's playing compared to previous years? In the years before the introduction of Suns and Giants, we were seeing about on average 65 18-19 yo's playing each season. This spiked into the 80's in 2011-12 due to the introduction of the expansion teams. It then started falling back to these numbers:

2019 50
2020 43(COVID year no VFL)
2021 57
2022 59
2023 48(so far, should be a few more late season debutantes)

So maybe to display the effect as clearly as possible let's use the percentages of 18-19yo's and 30+yo's as a function of overall player numbers in the 5 years prior to expansion 2006-10 and the last 5 years 2019-23.

Year	% of overall player population 18-19yo	% of overall player population 30+yo	% of overall player population 20-29yo
2006	11	10	79
2007	13	11	76
2008	11	9	80
2009	11	8	81
2010	10	7	83
2019	8	12	80
2020	7	13	80
2021	8	14	78
2022	9	14	77
2023	8	15	77

What we can see is:

- 18-19yo's have gone from mostly around 11% of player population to now mostly around 8% - a 27% reduction.

- 30+yo's have grown from mostly around 9% of the player population to now mostly around 14% - a 56% increase.

- The bigger 20-29yo age group has been more stable, but decreased from mostly around 80% to now mostly around 78% - a 3% decrease.

So 30+ yo's are displacing more 18-19yo's(a much smaller group to start with) than 20-29yo's(a much larger group.)

Would you expect to see that as a result of the game getting softer and the talent being spread more thinly? Or would it be more likely to result from a trend towards more sophisticated game plans, and/or better injury management and conditioning practices?

Pendles...Sidebum...JR8...Cotch...Shedda...Porkins...Duckwood...Dangerflop...Tuohy...Issac Smith...Gazza Rohan...Buddy...Oldman Goldstein...Fyfe...Walters...Breust...Wingard...Cripps...Darling...Gaff...Hurn...McGovern...Naitanui...Shuey...Casboult...Swallow...Witts...Ellis...Heppills...Tippawakkawoowee...Phillips...Shell...Stringer...Stewart...Seedsman...Smith...Sloane...WAlker...Broad...Grimes...GOAT...Pickett...Prestia...Tarrant...Kennedy...Sinclair...Rampe...Hickey...Reid...Naismith...Parker...Fox...Lloyd...Cunningham...Campbell...Crouch...Hill...Membury...Ross...Webster...Wood...Bruce...Duryea...Johannisen...Jones...Keath...Libba...Lobb...Treloar...Curnow...Docherty...Newman...Saad...Keeffe...Ward...Greene...Brown...Gawn...Grundy...Hibbert...McDonald...May...Melksham...Tomlinson...Viney...Adams...Cameron...Daniher...Fort...Gunston...Lester...Lyons...McCarthy...McInerney...Neale...Rich...Zorko...Boak...Clurey...Dixon...Jonas...Lycett...McKenzie...Adams...Cox...Crisp...Elliott...Hoskin-Elliott...Howe...Mihocek...Mitchell...

Roughly over 100 AFL players playing at over 29 years of age...

 

[Drunken Wookie]

Pendles...Sidebum...JR8...Cotch...Shedda...Porkins...Duckwood...Dangerflop...Tuohy...Issac Smith...Gazza Rohan...Buddy...Oldman Goldstein...Fyfe...Walters...Breust...Wingard...Cripps...Darling...Gaff...Hurn...McGovern...Naitanui...Shuey...Casboult...Swallow...Witts...Ellis...Heppills...Tippawakkawoowee...Phillips...Shell...Stringer...Stewart...Seedsman...Smith...Sloane...WAlker...Broad...Grimes...GOAT...Pickett...Prestia...Tarrant...Kennedy...Sinclair...Rampe...Hickey...Reid...Naismith...Parker...Fox...Lloyd...Cunningham...Campbell...Crouch...Hill...Membury...Ross...Webster...Wood...Bruce...Duryea...Johannisen...Jones...Keath...Libba...Lobb...Treloar...Curnow...Docherty...Newman...Saad...Keeffe...Ward...Greene...Brown...Gawn...Grundy...Hibbert...McDonald...May...Melksham...Tomlinson...Viney...Adams...Cameron...Daniher...Fort...Gunston...Lester...Lyons...McCarthy...McInerney...Neale...Rich...Zorko...Boak...Clurey...Dixon...Jonas...Lycett...McKenzie...Adams...Cox...Crisp...Elliott...Hoskin-Elliott...Howe...Mihocek...Mitchell...

Roughly over 100 AFL players playing at over 29 years of age...

lol did you post this via telegraph?

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

lol did you post this via telegraph?

That's what I get for all my hard work to edumakate the tiger army...ridicule!!!

 

[TigerImposter]

You are such an untrusting soul TI.

The raw numbers are all here:

AFL Tables - Player Ages

Scroll down to the second table on that page and you will see the age breakdowns by club and the competition as a whole on the extreme right hand side. Here is a screen shot:

View attachment 1759411

The reasons I left out those years 2011 to 2018 were:

• I didn't want the laborious task of calculating so many years
• I only wanted to capture the meaningful trends
• the years 2011 & 12 were clearly exceptional to the broader trends due to the introduction of the two expansion teams who each played an unnaturally high amount of 18 & 19 year olds for obvious reasons. So including these years was only going to serve to obscure the real trends.

In any event in my post I referred to the spike in young players in those seasons. The trends I have noted are undeniable imo, the inclusion of the COVID effected 2020 season where younger player numbers were abnormally low does not have any effect on the conclusions I made. In any event, I also noted this was a COVID effected season. This is why I used modal trend numbers to draw my conclusions and not average numbers.

If you look at the longer term trends dating back to 1897, what you see is the numbers of 30+yo players doesn't seem to correlate much with assumed advances in strength and conditioning over time. There was a sudden rise to 40 x 30+yo's in 1980 to 9% of overall player population. This rose and fell across the next 30 years. 1990 it was 7%. 2000 it was 10%. 2010 it was 7%. So from 1980 to 2010 there didn't seem to be a clear trend at play, older player numbers just rose and fell roughly within this 7-10% of overall player numbers range. Would you assume there were advances in strength and conditioning methods between 1980 and 2010? Most definitely.

So what unique factors are at play that might explain this recent explosion up to 30+ yo's making up 14% of overall player population? The main obvious thing I can think of is the introduction of more intricate team defensive structures in particular, but also things like the explosion of extra coaches in the football departments of clubs(which caused the advancement of team structures,) and very latterly the reduction in coach numbers due to soft cap restrictions - perhaps giving greater importance to retaining older players with their greater intellectual property.

Thanks I wasn’t being untrusting, but just cautious

 

[Grrr]

So what unique factors are at play that might explain this recent explosion up to 30+ yo's making up 14% of overall player population? The main obvious thing I can think of is the introduction of more intricate team defensive structures in particular, but also things like the explosion of extra coaches in the football departments of clubs(which caused the advancement of team structures,) and very latterly the reduction in coach numbers due to soft cap restrictions - perhaps giving greater importance to retaining older players with their greater intellectual property.

That is one aspect, of course the more telling aspect is that if you are retained on a list at 28-33 years old, it's because you are usually a very good footballer, so still a valuable player.

Hawthorn got rid of their older players over the years, and those players were snapped up not because they new the structures, they didn't because they were new to the club, it was because they were still good players. Isaac Smith, Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis were disgarded and continued on elsewhere.

Some like Hodge and Miitchell mainly for their on-field coaching, but Smith for example because he had plenty left in him. Great players are great players and make others better. That doesn't extrapolate to structures being the main reason why older players are being retained. Of course they know structures better, they have been playing a long time, but that fact that at 33 Dangerfield is still getting BOG's, Pendelbury, Sidebottom, Dusty etc.

Players are also playing longer because injuries are much better treated now, they have to keep much better tabs on diet etc, the game has gotten less physical apart from the running aspect, and I'm sure there are plenty other reasons. Young players find it so much harder to break into those sides, Richmond is at the pointy end of that with barely a player blooded and staying in the side for more than a season since probably Balta, 4 years ago. I don't count Young because he would most likely be in the VFL still if Tarrant wasn't injured.

To me we are over structured, and your premise of players staying in the side due to them knowing the structures is probably correct, but I don't think that is a good thing, and our results over the last few years sort of back that up.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

That is one aspect, of course the more telling aspect is that if you are retained on a list at 28-33 years old, it's because you are usually a very good footballer, so still a valuable player.

Hawthorn got rid of their older players over the years, and those players were snapped up not because they new the structures, they didn't because they were new to the club, it was because they were still good players. Isaac Smith, Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis were disgarded and continued on elsewhere.

Some like Hodge and Miitchell mainly for their on-field coaching, but Smith for example because he had plenty left in him. Great players are great players and make others better. That doesn't extrapolate to structures being the main reason why older players are being retained. Of course they know structures better, they have been playing a long time, but that fact that at 33 Dangerfield is still getting BOG's, Pendelbury, Sidebottom, Dusty etc.

Players are also playing longer because injuries are much better treated now, they have to keep much better tabs on diet etc, the game has gotten less physical apart from the running aspect, and I'm sure there are plenty other reasons. Young players find it so much harder to break into those sides, Richmond is at the pointy end of that with barely a player blooded and staying in the side for more than a season since probably Balta, 4 years ago.
I don't count Young because he would most likely be in the VFL still if Tarrant wasn't injured.

If the explosion in 30+yo players is only observed over the past 5 years in particular, wouldn't the reason for it need to be something only affecting this particular group of 30+ year olds?

The reasons you give are:

1. 30+ year olds are very good players to be retained on lists.

First, I don't think that would be specific to this recent period.

Second, let's look at some of the 30+ year olds playing in 2023 -

Lions Lyon, Lester
Blues E Curnow, Newman
Pies Cox, Mihocek
Bombers Phillips, Heppell, Tony MacDonald
Dockers Wilson, Hamling
Giants Keeffe, Lloyd, Kennedy
Cats Touhy, Stanley, Ceglar, Rohan
Suns Casboult, Day
Demons Hibberd, Melksham
Roos Greenwood
Port Jonas, McKenzie
Tigers Pickett
Saints Campbell, Ross, Webster
Swans Hickey, Fox
Dogs Duryea, Keath, Bruce, Lobb

There are 35 players who haven't really been stars of the game who have played this season. Do you think most of these types were still playing games into their 30's 15 years ago?

Players may in cases move to new clubs and be unfamiliar with their structures initially, but they still understand the need for structures and the general AFL techniques and structures a lot better than younger players. So they adapt more readily.

2. the game has gotten less physical and injuries are treated better and players diets etc are better managed.

I think these things would be likely true, but would this really explain the most recent explosion of 30+ year olds over the last 5 years? Has there been a quantum leap in those areas in this period? I am not so sure.

It still seems to me the most likely culprit for the strong recent trend towards 30+ yo's displacing 18-19yo's is IP. And this is probably the exact same reason Ross was initially omitted a few weeks back, but McIntosh hasn't been omitted this year. It won't just be IP reasons, I am sure modern conditioning and injury management plays a part.

We are seeing a similar trend even in cricket. If you are watching the Ashes at all, England has 3 players over 36, another over 34, another over 33, 3 more over 32. 8 players older than 32yo. Australia has only 5 players under 32yo. 4 of those are 29-31yo. I am pretty sure other sports are seeing similar trends. So much of it must be to do with decision making and ability and willingness to fulfil certain roles the team requires. That trend in cricket is similarly timed as well, it has exploded in recent years.

 

[Grrr]

If the explosion in 30+yo players is only observed over the past 5 years in particular, wouldn't the reason for it need to be something only affecting this particular group of 30+ year olds?

The reasons you give are:

1. 30+ year olds are very good players to be retained on lists.

First, I don't think that would be specific to this recent period.

Second, let's look at some of the 30+ year olds playing in 2023 -

Lions Lyon, Lester
Blues E Curnow, Newman
Pies Cox, Mihocek
Bombers Phillips, Heppell, Tony MacDonald
Dockers Wilson, Hamling
Giants Keeffe, Lloyd, Kennedy
Cats Touhy, Stanley, Ceglar, Rohan
Suns Casboult, Day
Demons Hibberd, Melksham
Roos Greenwood
Port Jonas, McKenzie
Tigers Pickett
Saints Campbell, Ross, Webster
Swans Hickey, Fox
Dogs Duryea, Keath, Bruce, Lobb

There are 35 players who haven't really been stars of the game who have played this season. Do you think most of these types were still playing games into their 30's 15 years ago?

Players may in cases move to new clubs and be unfamiliar with their structures initially, but they still understand the need for structures and the general AFL techniques and structures a lot better than younger players. So they adapt more readily.

2. the game has gotten less physical and injuries are treated better and players diets etc are better managed.

I think these things would be likely true, but would this really explain the most recent explosion of 30+ year olds over the last 5 years? Has there been a quantum leap in those areas in this period? I am not so sure.

It still seems to me the most likely culprit for the strong recent trend towards 30+ yo's displacing 18-19yo's is IP. And this is probably the exact same reason Ross was initially omitted a few weeks back, but McIntosh hasn't been omitted this year. It won't just be IP reasons, I am sure modern conditioning and injury management plays a part.

We are seeing a similar trend even in cricket. If you are watching the Ashes at all, England has 3 players over 36, another over 34, another over 33, 3 more over 32. 8 players older than 32yo. Australia has only 5 players under 32yo. 4 of those are 29-31yo. I am pretty sure other sports are seeing similar trends. So much of it must be to do with decision making and ability and willingness to fulfil certain roles the team requires. That trend in cricket is similarly timed as well, it has exploded in recent years.

Regarding the cricket, there has always been a once you are in you are in policy. Many of these players play on until they are 36-37 these days and should have been replaced but for loyalty. Warner probably the best example. There have been other reasons, 20-20 during test periods where young players should have been pressuring existing players. Lack of trust is a big issue.

That seems to be an issue with Richmond in my eyes. We keep playing players who should not have been there but for loyalty. Jack Graham early in the season was very underdone and it showed in his performances. He is up and going now, but he didn't even play a practice match under his belt. Is that is good policy, it's not like he is Dusty? Ross was the player he replaced on the half forward line, even though Ross was in our best 3 or 4 players in the Brisbane final and against Essendon the week before.

Many of the players you mentioned above are either still good players such as Jonas, were recruited for a role, Casboult, were recruited when their side as in need of senior players, Greenwood, or are not playing much these days. Pickett is a good player taking one for the team, Mihocek is vital for Collingwood, Rohan can still be a match winner even though he has always been super inconsistent, etc.

We can see what 18-19 year olds can do, see North with their early pics, they are going to be stars and have to be played because you need to get games into them and they have nobody better. Look at the spark Coulthard gave us, Banks is really starting to show something, before he is dropped for Short.

The game is harder than ever these days with the pace and amount of running players have to do. It took years before Bolton had the fitness and mental strength to play proper football even with his talent. Once you get to that level, like the cricket side, it's a combination of loyalty and still being good players it's hard to get out.

 

[GoTigers2015]

No longer a fringe player. One of the few that stands up in big games.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

No longer a fringe player. One of the few that stands up in big games.

Did he win his position?

 

[Harrison Bergeron]

Did he win his position?

Name a Richmond player who did. How'd Flash Graham go?

 

[TigerImposter]

Name a Richmond player who did. How'd Flash Graham go?

Cmon HB they’ll drop Ross next week and Mr Plod will still roll around playing his endurance running role of chasing his opponent , waiting for a turnover to get a touch and then messing it up with 52% chance under no pressure.

 

[Harrison Bergeron]

Cmon HB they’ll drop Ross next week and Mr Plod will still roll around playing his endurance running role of chasing his opponent , waiting for a turnover to get a touch and then messing it up with 52% chance under no pressure.

 

[Wooden Robot]

Name a Richmond player who did. How'd Flash Graham go?

Graham was pathetic

 

[banana_bus]

The nuffs will continue to push their agendas in here. Ross was every bit as bad as Graham yesterday. Graham in our bests last week too. But Ross is a gun and Graham is a plodder apparently. **** off

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

Pendles...Sidebum...JR8...Cotch...Shedda...Porkins...Duckwood...Dangerflop...Tuohy...Issac Smith...Gazza Rohan...Buddy...Oldman Goldstein...Fyfe...Walters...Breust...Wingard...Cripps...Darling...Gaff...Hurn...McGovern...Naitanui...Shuey...Casboult...Swallow...Witts...Ellis...Heppills...Tippawakkawoowee...Phillips...Shell...Stringer...Stewart...Seedsman...Smith...Sloane...WAlker...Broad...Grimes...GOAT...Pickett...Prestia...Tarrant...Kennedy...Sinclair...Rampe...Hickey...Reid...Naismith...Parker...Fox...Lloyd...Cunningham...Campbell...Crouch...Hill...Membury...Ross...Webster...Wood...Bruce...Duryea...Johannisen...Jones...Keath...Libba...Lobb...Treloar...Curnow...Docherty...Newman...Saad...Keeffe...Ward...Greene...Brown...Gawn...Grundy...Hibbert...McDonald...May...Melksham...Tomlinson...Viney...Adams...Cameron...Daniher...Fort...Gunston...Lester...Lyons...McCarthy...McInerney...Neale...Rich...Zorko...Boak...Clurey...Dixon...Jonas...Lycett...McKenzie...Adams...Cox...Crisp...Elliott...Hoskin-Elliott...Howe...Mihocek...Mitchell...

Roughly over 100 AFL players playing at over 29 years of age...

I counted 96

 

[domin8]

The nuffs will continue to push their agendas in here. Ross was every bit as bad as Graham yesterday. Graham in our bests last week too. But Ross is a gun and Graham is a plodder apparently. * off

This

 

[TigerImposter]

Here puss puss puss.

 

[Grrr]

The nuffs will continue to push their agendas in here. Ross was every bit as bad as Graham yesterday. Graham in our bests last week too. But Ross is a gun and Graham is a plodder apparently. * off

Both had average games.

The problem is that he could not keep up with the speed of Melbourne, and being a mid/forward, that was telling. The game had the speed and intensity of a final. Yes he played well against Hawthorn, but they are 3rd bottom.

Don't see the need to put down a player (Ross) just to justify your defence of Graham, could say you are doing just what you are defending.

 

[Grrr]

You just making up words to put in my post mate or? Show me where I said either was pathetic or delete your post.

Fair enough, my apologies, I have amended my post after re-reading the context of your post. I misunderstood what you were alluding to. Honest mistake. I don't think I can be accused ever of slagging off other posters.

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

I counted 96

That's cos some have already fallen off the perch..

 

[peternorth]

Hope he plays a great game tonight

 

[richoplzbreed]

Get this bloke to 100 games should never be dropped again. Well done match committee dropping him 6 weeks ago . If it wasn't for fate making his sub early would probably still be rotting in the Magoo's.

 

[TigerTime88]

At his size I do question why we never tried him inside first rather than a wing. At the end of the day the coaches see what he does at training so there is an obvious basis, but he does seem a clearance machine given size/strength.

 

[db26]

Goes to show you all he needed was game time and a position yet last couple of years we couldn't even settle him in the side.

 

[Harrison Bergeron]

Would still like to see him on ball eventually.