Suns will build, just not convinced completely that they play finals this year
If Tigers stay healthy, likely finish above bottom 6
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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Autopsy AFL 2024 Opening Round 0 - Suns v Tigers Sat March 9th 4:20pm AEDT (Heritage)
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If Tigers stay healthy, likely finish above bottom 6
It looks like Suns have the wood over Tigers recently, winning the last 3 games (2 were at Marvel).
Hm, sportsbet having Suns 1.47, Tigers 2.70
I feel already for fans watching from the Eastern stand.
Tiger will melt in the heat and will not be able to handle the cake of soap
Suns by 24.
I suspect, it will be very taxing game and tough for Tigers to recover from on 5 days break. Advantage goes to Blues in round 1 by playing Lions a day earlier at night.
Hm, sportsbet having Suns 1.47, Tigers 2.70
I feel already for fans watching from the Eastern stand.
Tiger will melt in the heat and will not be able to handle the cake of soap
Suns by 24.
I suspect, it will be very taxing game and tough for Tigers to recover from on 5 days break. Advantage goes to Blues in round 1 by playing Lions a day earlier at night.
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There were some decent patches but overall nowhere near good enough to win that game. We just couldn't seem to get our hands on it in the middle with Tom Green (9 clearances) and Keiran Briggs (9 clearances) making things really difficult for us. That centre square dominance was reflected in the i50 count that massively favoured the Giants 72-41.
Sam Taylor did a good job of keeping Ben King out of the game and I noticed there was a fair bit of double teaming of King going on, but encouragingly that allowed Jack Lukosius to get free and he was very good at capitalising on that space as the leading goalkicker for the game with 4 majors. We didn't really have a third tall forward in the first half of the game when the majority of the damage was inflicted, but when Casboult was injected into game in the third quarter you saw the difference he was making by turning i50 entries into 50/50 contests and bringing the ball to ground instead of the interceptions we saw in the first half.
That allowed some of our crumbing small forwards to get into the game when Casboult brought the ball to ground and we managed to close the margin a fair bit, but it was too little too late at that stage. Our best small forward in Rosas, who played very well the week before against Brisbane, didn't play against the Giants and none of our other smalls really stepped up in his absence (with the possible exception of Berry) so that really hurt our ability to score. It should be a different story soon when we get our actual third tall forward Walter and our best small forward Rosas back from short-term injuries.
It's easy to point the blame at the backline in a game like this, but even the best backlines in the league are going to break down when there's a massive discrepency in the i50 count. Eventually the dam wall breaks and it's too much pressure being applied. Individually, I think Lemmens wasn't a great match-up for Toby Greene (who is?) and Callum Brown playing as a third tall forward was certainly causing us headaches as well. We did a decent job of stopping two tall forwards in Ricciardi and Cadman but we're lacking that third tall defender who can cover a guy like Brown in games like this. So there's potentially still some list deficiencies that Dimma will need to address going forward.
Having said all that, we also saw some positive signs from players like Bailey Humphrey, Alex Sexton and Tom Berry so it's not all negative and we're obviously still adjusting to Dimma's new gameplan. Add in the fact that our last two opponents have been top four teams from last year and that Dimma is experimenting with positions, it's not really that surprising that they've performed the way they have against high quality opponents. The funny thing about footy is winning changes all perceptions so if the Suns walk away with the win this time next week then people will change the way they are currently looking the Suns/Dimma. As they say, a week is a long time in footy.
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A nice summary ... kudos! I think Luko had a bit of a soft match-up but did well to convert that into goals. gws have been using these games to get time into Leek Aleer ... but he was responsible for McDonald (swans game) who kicked 4 and Luko who kicked 4. He's still an intercepter rather than a man-on-man defender. Nethertheless, it was a good hit out fo both teams. Look forward to seeing how things develop for the suns as the season progresses.
For most of the game teams were on completely different levels with regard to work rate, pressure, contest. One can only speculate why.
Let's see how Suns go in Opening round. Hopefully no sausages delivered to Dimma.
Luko finally sorted out his set shot (in second half in 2023).
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- Aug 12, 2017
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Yeah ... noticed that last year
Looks like this one is going to be a sell out. This probably won't get much attention but from a local perspective I think it's important to have the Suns starting their season with a big home game in the same week (same day in fact) as the Titans because it means the NRL won't get any kind of headstart like they have in years gone by. In the past we've seen the Titans start their seasons well and the Suns are already several steps behind by the time they take to the field. Then it gets even worse for the Suns if they lose their first game and the Titans are winning. I dare say we'll see a decent increase in crowds for the Suns this season and part of the reason will be not falling behind the Titans in the early rounds.
Both GC teams are expected to win next week so it's probably going to be game on from the very start. The Suns are currently paying $1.47 to beat the Tigers and the Titans are paying $1.52 to beat the Dragons.
Both GC teams are expected to win next week so it's probably going to be game on from the very start. The Suns are currently paying $1.47 to beat the Tigers and the Titans are paying $1.52 to beat the Dragons.
Suns need to start season well to see increase in crowds. Implementing a new plan, I am not optimistic. E.g., GWS (better team) started last year 3W:7L under a new coach.
I suspect crowd will be dominated by Tigers fans similarly to last year against Magpies. Frustrating.
Richmond have a good supporter base in south east Queensland so I think it's fair to assume that a sell out will include the Tigers fans outnumbering the Suns fans in this game, as we've seen in the past when Richmond play on the Gold Coast, but these big crowd games also offer an opportunity for the Suns to win over the locals who are neutrals/not that strongly following Richmond or any other AFL club. If it goes well for the Suns then you'd expect a decent amount of those neutrals to attend the following week when the Suns host the Crows. I think that was intentionally scheduled by the AFL for that reason.
It's about building momentum and convincing the locals that aren't rusted on fans that they should jump on board because the club has an exciting young list coached by one of the greats and together they can achieve great things in the future. We've seen too many times in the past that the Suns have blown opportunities like this to build the fanbase because they don't perform under the bright lights, but this is also a new dawn under Dimma which comes with massive opportunities if the club can take advantage of them.
We saw a similar scenario play out last year in the lead up to the Collingwood game in July. The Pies were about as hot as a team can be and the Suns were looking like they were legitimately competing for a finals spot at the time, so the game sold out in the week leading up. Sadly, the Suns didn't show up in that game and it all unravelled in the two weeks that followed which included a loss to Port Adelaide and Stuart Dew getting sacked. So we know what happens when you don't perform in these big games, but we've never really seen what happens if the Suns DO consistently perform in these big games. The Gold Coast is still very much an untapped market in that sense.
So let's see what happens. This could very well be the beginning of the Suns realising their potential. Here's hoping.
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We don't really know much about Hardwick's Gold Coast and Yze's Richmond, which makes this game quite unpredictable. If it will take a bit for us to adjust to a new game style, then the same is probably also true for Gold Coast.
All we can go with is what happened in the past for now. As it stands, Gold Coast beat Richmond in the last three games. It is worth noting that 2 out of 3 of those losses were at Marvel Stadium, and Richmond are 4-1-10 at Marvel Stadium since the beginning of 2019 with no win since 2021. So, our losses there don't really give a good indication of how we'd fare against Gold Coast in Carrara.
Speaking of Carrara, we are pretty good there. It was our choice of venue in the 2020 finals series for a reason (We're 11-1 there since 2017). Our only loss there was by 2 points against Gold Coast in 2022. Even in that loss, we were up by 40 points in the 3rd quarter and only lost due to a goal after the siren. To me, the slippery conditions there suit our game style. I think we still have a game style suited to slippery conditions under Yze from what I've seen in the preseason so far.
So, I'm pretty confident of a win based on recent history and preseason form. I'm going with Richmond by 23 points. However, history doesn't mean as much with both sides having new coaches. Hardwick and Riewoldt were important in our wins in Carrara, so I don't know how our players will fare without them. And yes, my tip is more hope than an educated guess, but why not back us to win if there isn't a whole lot to be pessimistic about under our new coach?
All we can go with is what happened in the past for now. As it stands, Gold Coast beat Richmond in the last three games. It is worth noting that 2 out of 3 of those losses were at Marvel Stadium, and Richmond are 4-1-10 at Marvel Stadium since the beginning of 2019 with no win since 2021. So, our losses there don't really give a good indication of how we'd fare against Gold Coast in Carrara.
Speaking of Carrara, we are pretty good there. It was our choice of venue in the 2020 finals series for a reason (We're 11-1 there since 2017). Our only loss there was by 2 points against Gold Coast in 2022. Even in that loss, we were up by 40 points in the 3rd quarter and only lost due to a goal after the siren. To me, the slippery conditions there suit our game style. I think we still have a game style suited to slippery conditions under Yze from what I've seen in the preseason so far.
So, I'm pretty confident of a win based on recent history and preseason form. I'm going with Richmond by 23 points. However, history doesn't mean as much with both sides having new coaches. Hardwick and Riewoldt were important in our wins in Carrara, so I don't know how our players will fare without them. And yes, my tip is more hope than an educated guess, but why not back us to win if there isn't a whole lot to be pessimistic about under our new coach?
Given the long weekend in Melbourne, I suspect you'll be on the money there.
Same for Saturday night with the Giants, as annoying as the Opening Round concept is, the AFL have been smart to do it over the Vic long weekend, and have the two teams that pull the smaller crowds scheduled at times when there's a chance more people from Melbourne can fill the stands.
We had a pretty good record at Carrara last year, beating some finals teams like Brisbane and St Kilda, while coming up just short against other finals teams like Melbourne and Carlton. The only really poor performance we had was the Pies.
If this game was at the G, I would reckon Richmond get the chocolates, but because it is at home, we should feel confident going in, especially with no Lynch for Richmond.
I think it will be a slow start for us this year as we acclimatise to a new game plan, but even then, we should be able to get the win at home.
If this game was at the G, I would reckon Richmond get the chocolates, but because it is at home, we should feel confident going in, especially with no Lynch for Richmond.
I think it will be a slow start for us this year as we acclimatise to a new game plan, but even then, we should be able to get the win at home.
Dustin Martin in some doubt
Well that sucks. With a short turn around to the Carlton game, having scans indicate he's not quite 100% even if nothing shows up, you don't get scans if you're feeling fine.Dustin Martin in some doubt
We'd be better off playing it safe given it's only the opening game.
Bring him and Lynch in for Carlton, at least gives them both the extra few days.
Michaels
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For anyone interested our weekly live show was last night where we took a look at the Gold Coast vs Richmond game amongst other things.
Agenda below, but if you just wanted to hear about this weeks game skip to 24:22.
Full disclosure this is a Richmond based pod / show, so if it seems one sided or if we missed some key info on the Suns, that's why. But we do try and be sensible when previewing the upcoming games.
Topics covered:
-Welcome to everyone
-Update on Tiger71
-Jimmy Webster bump and outcomes
-Mini preview of Preseason game vs Collingwood
-Our midfields lack of speed, how do we address it?
-Our forward connection, will it improve?
-Preview of Opening Round Game vs Gold Coast
Agenda below, but if you just wanted to hear about this weeks game skip to 24:22.
Full disclosure this is a Richmond based pod / show, so if it seems one sided or if we missed some key info on the Suns, that's why. But we do try and be sensible when previewing the upcoming games.
Topics covered:
-Welcome to everyone
-Update on Tiger71
-Jimmy Webster bump and outcomes
-Mini preview of Preseason game vs Collingwood
-Our midfields lack of speed, how do we address it?
-Our forward connection, will it improve?
-Preview of Opening Round Game vs Gold Coast
Massive blow for Richmond. Looks like Dusty, Lynch, Nankervis and Graham will all be missing this game.Dustin Martin in some doubt
I swear the last week waiting for this game feels as long as the 3 months prior.
smasha
It's Time!
AFL loves this.It looks like Suns have the wood over Tigers recently, winning the last 3 games (2 were at Marvel).
Hm, sportsbet having Suns 1.47, Tigers 2.70
I feel already for fans watching from the Eastern stand.
Tiger will melt in the heat and will not be able to handle the cake of soap
Suns by 24.
I suspect, it will be very taxing game and tough for Tigers to recover from on 5 days break. Advantage goes to Blues in round 1 by playing Lions a day earlier at night.
Richmond by 36
My tip will hinge on whether Martin plays or not.
- Aug 12, 2017
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Yep …. This
Unlikely with a 5-day break to round
- Aug 12, 2017
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Yeah seems likely they save him for the traditional opener …. Shame
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