Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXV - 'Loopy' Season has begun

[Matty411]

Think Hollands will be a great pickup for us and our (new) environment of unity, hard work and (building) success will be amazing for him and his development.

If he can get through the preseason in good nick, he will be best 22 early on in 2024.

 

[Stamos]

So u think Dow should be traded for a higher value than Acres & SOS should give us more than he needs to just for the fun of it? Ok then

Not higher value, but very similar.
Freo offered Acres a low 1 year contract, we offered him 3. Same situation as Dow.
F3 is fair.

 

[Arr0w]

Think Dow is only worth a pick in the 50-60 range. Get more than that and we have done well

 

[NavySteel]

If Dow is undervalued now, that is entirely our fault. Good luck to another team picking him up and seeing value there.

Dow will be in St. K's starting 22.

 

[HarryFlashman]

Not higher value, but very similar.
Freo offered Acres a low 1 year contract, we offered him 3. Same situation as Dow.
F3 is fair.

St Kilda have 13,21,35,56 so it’s 56 or next yrs 3rd (4th if they are being pricks about it )
Reference 3rd is 44-62 (362 - 123 points) 4th 63-80 (112-0 points)

 

[marcmurphy3]

So u think Dow should be traded for a higher value than Acres & SOS should give us more than he needs to just for the fun of it? Ok then

Nobody has said we should get more for Acres then Dow. Just something usable.

Also, plenty of clubs could screw over other clubs to get better deals. In a close-knit industry like the afl you need to manage relationships. What goes around comes around. Look at Westcoast. They just traded a pick for brockman when they had pick 1 in the PSD.

 

[branedotorg]

He wasn't petty at Carlton

maybe in public and trades, certainly not the experience of those working at the club and associated entities

 

[HarryFlashman]

Nobody has said we should get more for Acres then Dow. Just something usable.

Also, plenty of clubs could screw over other clubs to get better deals. In a close-knit industry like the afl you need to manage relationships. What goes around comes around. Look at Westcoast. They just traded a pick for brockman when they had pick 1 in the PSD.

Usable is really splitting hairs 56 = 194 points, 62 (last pick rd 3) is 123.
Points stop at pick 73 (just over half way 4th round)

 

[marcmurphy3]

On a positive note thank god TDK didn't request a trade to St Kilda or Geelong.

Your trade period can really be defined by the clubs you have to deal with for both arriving and departing players. Look at Port Adelaide. You'd think they are targeting prime jeremy McGovern

20

Jeremy Mcgovern

Age

32

Ht

197cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

10.1

4star

HB

4.6

3star

M

6.8

5star

T

1.5

3star

MG

238.7

4star

D

12.4

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

6.4

5star

T

2.0

3star

MG

183.4

3star

D

11.0

3star

K

8.8

4star

HB

2.2

2star

M

7.2

5star

T

1.4

4star

and Matt Scarlett the way Essendon and Geelong are carrying on about 2 fringe players

Compare that to how Melbourne, Sydney, Pies dealt with Adams and Grundy. Same with Fisher. Roos very reasonable.

 

[carlton_99]

On a positive note thank god TDK didn't request a trade to St Kilda or Geelong.

Your trade period can really be defined by the clubs you have to deal with for both arriving and departing players. Look at Port Adelaide. You'd think they are targeting prime jeremy McGovern and Matt Scarlett the way Essendon and Geelong are carrying on about 2 fringe players

Compare that to how Melbourne, Sydney, Pies dealt with Adams and Grundy. Same with Fisher. Roos very reasonable.

The Ratugolea and BZT trade values are ridiculous

 

[Blue__Balls]

So u think Dow should be traded for a higher value than Acres & SOS should give us more than he needs to just for the fun of it? Ok then

To be fair, Freo didn't accept a future third rounder knowing we would end up 3rd on the ladder. That would have been a "worst case scenario" for them, best case being we fall apart and finish in the bottom 8, but the likely outcome being that we either just miss finals again, or sneak in but get knocked out early.

I think the frustration at SOS is on the discrepancy between what he wants for Coffield - an out of contract, injury-plagued, 23yo, former Pick 8 who has played 52 games in 6 seasons - and what he's offering for Dow - an out of contract, 23yo, former Pick 3 who has played 73 games in 6 years.

For mine, the obvious solution would seem to be that we finagle a deal that sees Coffield and the Dogs, Dow at the Saints, and something like the WB Pick 48 with us. Mid third round value for both players, we then use 48 to try and assist with moving up the board, or swap it for a future pick to bolster our points next year.

 

[HarryFlashman]

On a positive note thank god TDK didn't request a trade to St Kilda or Geelong.

Your trade period can really be defined by the clubs you have to deal with for both arriving and departing players. Look at Port Adelaide. You'd think they are targeting prime jeremy McGovern and Matt Scarlett the way Essendon and Geelong are carrying on about 2 fringe players

Compare that to how Melbourne, Sydney, Pies dealt with Adams and Grundy. Same with Fisher. Roos very reasonable.

Geelong carrying on could be a good thing for us, they demand & get a higher than expected pick, could open up a more agreeable deal for 8 for us.
You never know what’s happening behind the scenes there’s likely other considerations at play - that said- some people are just pricks to deal with.

 

[HarryFlashman]

To be fair, Freo didn't accept a future third rounder knowing we would end up 3rd on the ladder. That would have been a "worst case scenario" for them, best case being we fall apart and finish in the bottom 8, but the likely outcome being that we either just miss finals again, or sneak in but get knocked out early.

I think the frustration at SOS is on the discrepancy between what he wants for Coffield - an out of contract, injury-plagued, 23yo, former Pick 8 who has played 52 games in 6 seasons - and what he's offering for Dow - an out of contract, 23yo, former Pick 3 who has played 73 games in 6 years.

For mine, the obvious solution would seem to be that we finagle a deal that sees Coffield and the Dogs, Dow at the Saints, and something like the WB Pick 48 with us. Mid third round value for both players, we then use 48 to try and assist with moving up the board, or swap it for a future pick to bolster our points next year.

You can’t equate player for player - draft & points system just doesn’t work that way.
Leverage & wants/needs are everything, simple view only works in hindsight.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Geelong carrying on could be a good thing for us, they demand & get a higher than expected pick, could open up a more agreeable deal for 8 for us.
You never know what’s happening behind the scenes there’s likely other considerations at play - that said- some people are just pricks to deal with.

I've worked professionally as a negotiator and it's just an ego thing with a lot of guys. It's all just about winning and beating their opponent. Pretty much always backfires on those types in the long run.

 

[Blue__Balls]

You can’t equate player for player - draft & points system just doesn’t work that way.
Leverage & wants/needs are everything, simple view only works in hindsight.

Of course you can. Clubs can trade the assets they have for players they want.

Carlton and GC both agreed on something equivalent to around Pick 30 for Fisher. GC didn't have that pick, so we manufactured some other pick swaps that both parties were happy with.

Here we have Carlton saying a future 4th for Dow isn't enough, and St Kilda saying they want Pick 41 for Coffield. St Kilda probably feel their future third is too much for Dow, while Carlton probably feel their Pick 56 is too low (especially given the nature of this year's draft crop).

The natural progression from there is for negotiation to shift those two deals towards a middle ground. Saints don't get quite as much as they want for Coffield, and give up slightly more than they want for Dow. Conveniently, WB have a draft pick that appears to match what most would consider fair value for both players. Conversely, as report, Essendon potentially get involved so that we get a better future pick (presumably 48 goes to Essendon, their future third comes to us or something of that nature).

 

[Lace_Out]

Dow will be in St. K's starting 22.

With Ross as coach.. not for very long.

Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk

 

[Wickzki]

Aren't the concerns about Elijah(and his cheap cost) more directed about his greater enthusiasm for 'off field' activities than football, and not about coaching?
Hopefully just a new environment is needed to get him focused.

Honestly, I do my best to stay out of this rubbosh as best I can. It's not what I've heard and so far from what one of his current teammates has told me of him that I don't believe it.

Saying that, he wouldn't be the first Suns player to get caught up in that GC party lifestyle and yo subsequently turn it around when he leaves.

Furthermore, I would argue that to our football club is being built on adding quality people who have important values and principles close to their heart and that if Elijah wasn't a great person we'd not be getting him regardless of who his brother is or what his teammates say about him.

 

[ctwenty1]

I've worked professionally as a negotiator and it's just an ego thing with a lot of guys. It's all just about winning and beating their opponent. Pretty much always backfires on those types in the long run.

Yep- can’t grab all the value in a deal

 

[HarryFlashman]

I've worked professionally as a negotiator and it's just an ego thing with a lot of guys. It's all just about winning and beating their opponent. Pretty much always backfires on those types in the long run.

Me too mate, u work especially hard to find away to **** them in the future
It is interesting thou, if u only plan to be around a few yrs scorched earth can be highly effective.
Reasonable people don’t tend to carry the grudge with the organization after the person leaves.

 

[BlueJet]

I think it goes a little beyond this. So many examples of good clubs not mucking around with player or pick movement over the years. No surprise those clubs have been the most successful. Reputation and player contentment (via ease of movement) must count for something.

As I said, I've never been a massive fan of his in this space.
I just feel as though he sees Dow as someone he could get for free/minimal cost, to that end, disagree that looking to trade the equivalent assets has anything to do with pettiness.

 

[skadoosh]

 

[HarryFlashman]

Of course you can. Clubs can trade the assets they have for players they want.

Carlton and GC both agreed on something equivalent to around Pick 30 for Fisher. GC didn't have that pick, so we manufactured some other pick swaps that both parties were happy with.

Here we have Carlton saying a future 4th for Dow isn't enough, and St Kilda saying they want Pick 41 for Coffield. St Kilda probably feel their future third is too much for Dow, while Carlton probably feel their Pick 56 is too low (especially given the nature of this year's draft crop).

The natural progression from there is for negotiation to shift those two deals towards a middle ground. Saints don't get quite as much as they want for Coffield, and give up slightly more than they want for Dow. Conveniently, WB have a draft pick that appears to match what most would consider fair value for both players. Conversely, as report, Essendon potentially get involved so that we get a better future pick (presumably 48 goes to Essendon, their future third comes to us or something of that nature).

Yeah, nah.
They can walk Dow, there’s no leverage.
It’s 2 different players with different back stories.
What u are saying make perfect sense, just doesn’t mean that’s the way it works.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Said earlier this year that E.Hollands looks like he's fallen off a cliff performance wise... so im glad the ITK info supports that and it isn't my eyes going on me at the ripe old age of 27. When he made his debut last year he looked hardened and hungry for opportunity and this year he's looked like a total plodder. Still has a lovely kick on him but was weak, fumbly and timid in 2023.

Hoping being in a team with Ollie with Vossy and Crippa leading the troops will be enough for him to get back on track. His natural talent is massive but he needs a huge pre season and some supportive teammates who will get him back to the game winner he was in juniors.

Reckon the Blues have been in his ear ever since Ollie was selected....

 

[CJMB]

Yeah, nah.
They can walk Dow, there’s no leverage.
It’s 2 different players with different back stories.
What u are saying make perfect sense, just doesn’t mean that’s the way it works.

what's the difference in leverage on Coffield?

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

The kid can play. Was touted as being the # 1 pick but slid due to doing his ACL in is draft year (don’t underestimate the impact this can have on a young player too, especially as a forward).

Great disposal and very good goal-sense. Only his third season (technically his second with an interrupted 2021 with his ACL) and so he is still learning his forward craft at AFL level, which takes time… especially without any quality key forwards around you, like he’s had up at GC.

He’s also not managed to put on any weight up at GC - only put on 1kg since being drafted. Over to you, Russell.

We’re crying out for a genuine third tall down forward and this guy could be it. I think he’ll thrive with Curnow, McKay and Martin in the team alongside him. If we get him cheap, he’ll be a massive steal IMO. More so than Acres - bookmark it.

Yep, only played his first senior game round 19, last year!

Put up some very decent numbers first handful of games...