Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[peetoo]

No one’s helping us, just gonna have to win all our games now

 

[Roddy]

I love seeing the pussies lose any time, but man, are results not going our way tonight, yet again.

 

[bigconornash]

What would our % chance of making finals be with:
14 wins
13 wins
12 wins

 

[peetoo]

What would our % of making finals be with:
14 wins
13 wins
12 wins

Taking down GWS % might be handy

 

[Dipper]

I doubt our % will come into it (I doubt we can raise it to a level above sides we'll finish level with...I think Essendon/ Melbourne/ Port will finish below us on points if we finish high enough to be in the 8), if we beat Adelaide, North and Richmond then I'd be pretty certain that if we beat GWS we'll make it. We'd probably finish above GWS in that case.

I doubt we'll make it if we lose 2 games.

The teams we're vying with have so many games with each other plus a few trips to places like Sydney and Brisbane.

 

[stevehawkington]

call your local shaman, more rain please

 

[satan1]

Finals, we're hunting top 4

(Real tests coming, keep the lid one etc.)

 

[Hrvat Hawks]

If we don't make finals.....the fire will burn. Almost a blessing.

 

[Hawkers Hero]

The way results are going this year, it isn't out of the question that we are a game off of 2nd place at the end of this round.

Just have to keep winning and hope for the best.....

 

[VandoHawk]

Just keep winning. It sounds simple but everyone we’re competing with is extremely hot and cold. Maintain the consistency and things will sort themselves out.

I’ve seen enough from this group to know we’re going to achieve big things but I hope we get a taste this year to light a fire.

 

[hk89]

I doubt our % will come into it (I doubt we can raise it to a level above sides we'll finish level with...I think Essendon/ Melbourne/ Port will finish below us on points if we finish high enough to be in the 8), if we beat Adelaide, North and Richmond then I'd be pretty certain that if we beat GWS we'll make it. We'd probably finish above GWS in that case.

I doubt we'll make it if we lose 2 games.

The teams we're vying with have so many games with each other plus a few trips to places like Sydney and Brisbane.

Percentage could still matter. There are 3 teams ahead of us with draws, so % irrelevant for them (Freo, Essendon, Lions). Of the others we are chasing, Melbourne on 105, Port on 106 and Cats 106 are all catchable percentage wise. Only dogs, gws and carlton seem to be a little too far ahead of us (and Yes, I include Carlton as a team we are chasing, if they have an unlikely loss against Roos tomorrow, we are only a game and % behind them, with an 8 point game against them).

If all results go by ladder position (i.e we lose to be GWS and Carlton), but we get a big percentage boost out of Roos and Tigers (50 point wins), but narrow losses to GWS and Carlton, I have us finishing 8th, a whisker ahead of Port on %. So in that scenario % super important.

Of course if we only drop 1 game from here, then yes percentage not important, but very much important for potential of still making it with two more losses.

Interestingly, it is possible to find scenarios that are not TOO unbelievable where we lose to GWS, Carlton AND Crows and still make it, but requires at least 3 games to go against favourites. For example GC travel poorly and lose to Eagles in Perth. Bombers get done by fellow tenants St Kilda and Port lose to Melbourne at the MCG (probably the most likely of those three - my initial predictor just used ladder positions with no home grounds factored in). That would leave us on 12 wins, in 8th place ahead of 9th place Port by %. But that requires the big boost from 50 point wins against Tigers/North and around 2-3 goal losses to Blues, GWS and Crows.

The GWS game is shaping up as the most important, which isn't surprising, given it is the only likely "8 point game" we play in from here on (assuming Carlton don't fall in a heap). It looks quite possible we can make it with only 3 more wins, as long as long as one of those wins is against GWS, in fact if we only beat GWS, Tigers and North, it seems possible we can even ignore %.

Of course there are so many games between teams still chasing finals that it is impossible to be sure about anything, but there are more possible avenues to finals than I thought there would be.

 

[BigVic]

Yes they can

 

[indianhawks]

The next three games are really difficult. Crows away, GWS away and Carlton at G. If we win 2 out of 3, we are definitely making it

 

[Walshawk]

What would our % chance of making finals be with:
14 wins
13 wins
12 wins

12 - 0%
13 - 40% if we beat GWS, maybe 20% if we don’t
14 - 90% if we beat GWS, around 70% if we don’t.
If we beat both Tigers and North by 10 goals and 13 probably gets us in.

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

The next three games are really difficult. Crows away, GWS away and Carlton at G. If we win 2 out of 3, we are definitely making it

Sure as hell doesnt get easier. Close enough if we're good enough

 

[tommyk72]

Percentage could still matter. There are 3 teams ahead of us with draws, so % irrelevant for them (Freo, Essendon, Lions). Of the others we are chasing, Melbourne on 105, Port on 106 and Cats 106 are all catchable percentage wise. Only dogs, gws and carlton seem to be a little too far ahead of us (and Yes, I include Carlton as a team we are chasing, if they have an unlikely loss against Roos tomorrow, we are only a game and % behind them, with an 8 point game against them).

If all results go by ladder position (i.e we lose to be GWS and Carlton), but we get a big percentage boost out of Roos and Tigers (50 point wins), but narrow losses to GWS and Carlton, I have us finishing 8th, a whisker ahead of Port on %. So in that scenario % super important.

Of course if we only drop 1 game from here, then yes percentage not important, but very much important for potential of still making it with two more losses.

Interestingly, it is possible to find scenarios that are not TOO unbelievable where we lose to GWS, Carlton AND Crows and still make it, but requires at least 3 games to go against favourites. For example GC travel poorly and lose to Eagles in Perth. Bombers get done by fellow tenants St Kilda and Port lose to Melbourne at the MCG (probably the most likely of those three - my initial predictor just used ladder positions with no home grounds factored in). That would leave us on 12 wins, in 8th place ahead of 9th place Port by %. But that requires the big boost from 50 point wins against Tigers/North and around 2-3 goal losses to Blues, GWS and Crows.

The GWS game is shaping up as the most important, which isn't surprising, given it is the only likely "8 point game" we play in from here on (assuming Carlton don't fall in a heap). It looks quite possible we can make it with only 3 more wins, as long as long as one of those wins is against GWS, in fact if we only beat GWS, Tigers and North, it seems possible we can even ignore %.

Of course there are so many games between teams still chasing finals that it is impossible to be sure about anything, but there are more possible avenues to finals than I thought there would be.

The nuance here is that favoritism is a hard metric in this years comp. Not only has every team not played each other, but some teams hav multiple games against bottom of the ladder teams. Trying to pick games on ladder position is very tough.

 

[Crankyhawk]

I love seeing the pussies lose any time, but man, are results not going our way tonight, yet again.

If we win them all it means we will be top 4

 

[TylerDurden]

The message at 3 qtr time was "percentage "

Love it.

 

[hk89]

The nuance here is that favoritism is a hard metric in this years comp. Not only has every team not played each other, but some teams hav multiple games against bottom of the ladder teams. Trying to pick games on ladder position is very tough.

Yes, a very close season like this really does highlight the inequities in the fixture. At least we've had double ups against both Tigers and North. Our draw looked pretty hard at the start of the year relative to our ladder position, and we had a relatively rough start, but I wouldn't be surprised if it improved as the year went on, given some of our double ups have been against teams that have fallen from last year (e,g Tigers and Pies), and we'll only play the current top 2 once.

It is not easy to fix the draw with the number of teams in the competition, but they could do a better job by trying to at least even it out over a window that is greater than a season by throwing out the idea of using the ladder as an equalisation factor which is just silly. Where you finish should never dictate who you play. The key metric should be playing teams an equal number of times and evening up home vs away, obviously that can't be done in a single season, but they could write the fixture over a multi-year period. TV rights is probably a big reason why they don't want to do that, as had to predict the blockbusters for Friday night multiple years in advance (for example).

 

[hk89]

12 - 0%
13 - 40% if we beat GWS, maybe 20% if we don’t
14 - 90% if we beat GWS, around 70% if we don’t.
If we beat both Tigers and North by 10 goals and 13 probably gets us in.

12 wins definitely higher than 0% chance, but very much more reliant on some upsets going our way to make 12 wins work (and very big wins in the two remaining wins). If one of those 2 wins was a big win against GWS, the chances of still getting in with 12 improve quite a bit, but of course, still a very outside chance.

 

[Philhawk]

It’s honestly a remarkable season.

Over the past 30 years, 12 wins gets you into the finals 73% of the time.

Even more remarkably, 13 wins gets you in 100% of the time.

I think there’s a very real chance we win 13 and miss. Doesn’t take anything away from the season, but boy it’s gonna be fun.

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

Still getting nightmares of the Port and Pies game earlier in the year. We should be second minimum

 

[Cyril says]

Like many fans I’ve done every combo I can think of.

More or less the results are mostly:

• One loss between now and the end of the year, we make it
• Two losses, most likely we miss out

Obviously there are other scenarios, but I reckon we have to beat Adelaide and GWS away, and then I’m calling it a sure thing.

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

Like many fans I’ve done every combo I can think of.

More or less the results are mostly:

• One loss between now and the end of the year, we make it
• Two losses, most likely we miss out

Obviously there are other scenarios, but I reckon we have to beat Adelaide and GWS away, and then I’m calling it a sure thing.

I am not getting carried away until rd 23 is completed.

 

[Dewnior]

Need Swans and Dockers to win today.