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- Nov 10, 2022
- 10,881
- 8,881
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
No one’s helping us, just gonna have to win all our games now
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What would our % of making finals be with:
14 wins
13 wins
12 wins
I doubt our % will come into it (I doubt we can raise it to a level above sides we'll finish level with...I think Essendon/ Melbourne/ Port will finish below us on points if we finish high enough to be in the 8), if we beat Adelaide, North and Richmond then I'd be pretty certain that if we beat GWS we'll make it. We'd probably finish above GWS in that case.
I doubt we'll make it if we lose 2 games.
The teams we're vying with have so many games with each other plus a few trips to places like Sydney and Brisbane.
12 - 0%What would our % chance of making finals be with:
14 wins
13 wins
12 wins
The next three games are really difficult. Crows away, GWS away and Carlton at G. If we win 2 out of 3, we are definitely making it
Percentage could still matter. There are 3 teams ahead of us with draws, so % irrelevant for them (Freo, Essendon, Lions). Of the others we are chasing, Melbourne on 105, Port on 106 and Cats 106 are all catchable percentage wise. Only dogs, gws and carlton seem to be a little too far ahead of us (and Yes, I include Carlton as a team we are chasing, if they have an unlikely loss against Roos tomorrow, we are only a game and % behind them, with an 8 point game against them).
If all results go by ladder position (i.e we lose to be GWS and Carlton), but we get a big percentage boost out of Roos and Tigers (50 point wins), but narrow losses to GWS and Carlton, I have us finishing 8th, a whisker ahead of Port on %. So in that scenario % super important.
Of course if we only drop 1 game from here, then yes percentage not important, but very much important for potential of still making it with two more losses.
Interestingly, it is possible to find scenarios that are not TOO unbelievable where we lose to GWS, Carlton AND Crows and still make it, but requires at least 3 games to go against favourites. For example GC travel poorly and lose to Eagles in Perth. Bombers get done by fellow tenants St Kilda and Port lose to Melbourne at the MCG (probably the most likely of those three - my initial predictor just used ladder positions with no home grounds factored in). That would leave us on 12 wins, in 8th place ahead of 9th place Port by %. But that requires the big boost from 50 point wins against Tigers/North and around 2-3 goal losses to Blues, GWS and Crows.
The GWS game is shaping up as the most important, which isn't surprising, given it is the only likely "8 point game" we play in from here on (assuming Carlton don't fall in a heap). It looks quite possible we can make it with only 3 more wins, as long as long as one of those wins is against GWS, in fact if we only beat GWS, Tigers and North, it seems possible we can even ignore %.
Of course there are so many games between teams still chasing finals that it is impossible to be sure about anything, but there are more possible avenues to finals than I thought there would be.
If we win them all it means we will be top 4I love seeing the pussies lose any time, but man, are results not going our way tonight, yet again.
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The nuance here is that favoritism is a hard metric in this years comp. Not only has every team not played each other, but some teams hav multiple games against bottom of the ladder teams. Trying to pick games on ladder position is very tough.
12 - 0%
13 - 40% if we beat GWS, maybe 20% if we don’t
14 - 90% if we beat GWS, around 70% if we don’t.
If we beat both Tigers and North by 10 goals and 13 probably gets us in.
I am not getting carried away until rd 23 is completed.Like many fans I’ve done every combo I can think of.
More or less the results are mostly:
- One loss between now and the end of the year, we make it
- Two losses, most likely we miss out
Obviously there are other scenarios, but I reckon we have to beat Adelaide and GWS away, and then I’m calling it a sure thing.