Autopsy Cats lose to Lions by 11 points

[Mr Meow]

I thought we didn't have anything else to discuss?

Oh you're still having a tantrum over that comment in a match day thread.

Glad you appreciated my factual post, correcting heresy.

If there is anything else "from memory", I can help you out further.

 

[Romeoh1]

Duncan too, from memory.

He’s good once he warms up, but takes him awhile these days!

 

[Cataholic]

Oh you're still having a tantrum over that comment in a match day thread.

Glad you appreciated my factual post, correcting heresy.

If there is anything else "from memory", I can help you out further.

No tantrum at all......I simply noted the rude arrogance in your reply to an attempt at a friendly discussion is all, and so ceased any further exchange as you curtly requested......until you replied to my post just now.

But the smug tone of your latest post clearly says that constructive discussion is beyond reach, so I'll return to the masses here and leave you to your air of superiority.

Enjoy.

 

[Mr Meow]

He’s good once he warms up, but takes him awhile these days!

Duncan's errors stand out and at times are costly, but he and Stewart are leading our effective disposals over the past 5 weeks by miles. A 13% turnover rate amongst a struggling team performance is not that bad, which is what he served up yesterday.

 

[Mr Meow]

No tantrum at all......I simply noted the rude arrogance in your reply to an attempt at a friendly discussion is all, and so ceased any further exchange as you curtly requested......until you replied to my post just now.

But the smug tone of your latest post clearly says that constructive discussion is beyond reach, so I'll return to the masses here and leave you to your air of superiority.

Enjoy.

Okay well I'm not sure what that has to do with analysing turnover rates compared to effective disposals/score involvements for players yesterday. It wasn't intended to upset you, merely to bring clarity to the issue by looking at the cold hard facts.

Apologies.

 

[Cataholic]

He’s good once he warms up, but takes him awhile these days!

Yeah, he does somewhat, but he's not as reliable as he once was.

 

[Cataholic]

Okay well I'm not sure what that has to do with analysing turnover rates compared to effective disposals/score involvements for players yesterday. It wasn't intended to upset you, merely to bring clarity to the issue by looking at the cold hard facts.

Apologies.

It's in the tone, and presentation. Go back and re-read your last couple of responses......

Not just me either btw.

Anyhow, this is OT, so I won't say any more on the matter.

 

[Mr Meow]

It's in the tone, and presentation. Go back and re-read your last couple of responses......

Not just me either btw.

Anyhow, this is OT, so I won't say any more on the matter.

Stuff like this is ad hominem and below you - it has nothing to do with discussing footy, which is what I am attempting to do.

Stick to the actual topic and you'll have a better time. It's true that people get annoyed with their memories not being as accurate as cold hard statistics, but that's not my problem.

FWIW Duncan might not be as reliable as he once was, but only Stewart averages more effective disposals for us this season. Only 5 Geelong players have a higher disposal efficiency. So the criticism is still overblown.

 

[BigCat1]

Our form away from Geelong is mediocre, that is the reality.

Great wins down at Geelong followed by average performances away is a pattern now.

Hard to see it changing now.

It’s the midfield. We are basically down Selwood and Guthrie. Add in Danger has declined slightly (as you’d expect)

You can cover that at home with the narrow ground but is seems much harder away.

When we break even in the mids we win

 

[D BRIDGE]

Yeah, he does somewhat, but he's not as reliable as he once was.

Duncan definitely seems to be turning over the odd gimme kick that in the past he would just hit or even make the wrong decision a bit more.

Still a solid player but it's noticeable when he does it because he has always been so reliable with ball in hand for so long, I just expect when he has it that he will make the correct call and execute the pass (like when Stewart has it).

I'm starting not to auto-expect him to do it as much these days for sure.

 

[Cataholic]

Stuff like this is ad hominem and below you - it has nothing to do with discussing footy, which is what I am attempting to do.

Stick to the actual topic and you'll have a better time. It's true that people get annoyed with their memories not being as accurate as cold hard statistics, but that's not my problem.

FWIW Duncan might not be as reliable as he once was, but only Stewart averages more effective disposals for us this season. Only 5 Geelong players have a higher disposal efficiency. So the criticism is still overblown.

Ad hominem......my point was if your posts were free from the smear of personal derision that sometimes taints them your factual responses would be received better.

Anyhow, I'm leaving all that here. No more.

Duncan's clangers stand out because he was once ultra reliable. He starts games like a rusty gate these days. Imo.

 

[Mr Meow]

Duncan definitely seems to be turning over the odd gimme kick that in the past he would just hit or even make the wrong decision a bit more.

Still a solid player but it's noticeable when he does it because he has always been so reliable with ball in hand for so long, I just expect when he has it that he will make the correct call and execute the pass (like when Stewart has it).

I'm starting not to auto-expect him to do it as much these days for sure.

What we are struggling with currently is a lack of players who can win plenty of footy and use it well. It's unfortunate that Duncan's radar is hitting blips a few times a game now, but an indictment on the rest of the team that it is only Stewart having more effective disposals for us this season.

Yesterday was a good example. 6 Brisbane players had 16 effective disposals or more. Only 2 did for Geelong (Stewart and Duncan). it is worrying that Smith and Duncan are declining but we don't really have viable replacements, and make no mistake without those two in the team, our drive would lessen considerably. Add Tuohy in there too.

We need our Zuthrie, O'Connor, Bowes, Holmes types to step up. And boy do we miss Z.Guthrie. Atkins and Blicavs just can't seem to click together at the same time, often enough.

 

[Cataholic]

Duncan definitely seems to be turning over the odd gimme kick that in the past he would just hit or even make the wrong decision a bit more.

Still a solid player but it's noticeable when he does it because he has always been so reliable with ball in hand for so long, I just expect when he has it that he will make the correct call and execute the pass (like when Stewart has it).

I'm starting not to auto-expect him to do it as much these days for sure.

This.

That he was once so reliable probably exaggerates the frequency and effect of his clangers in our memories these days.

He came good in the second half last night, but even today - with the first half unwittingly taking precedence in my subconscious - I think of him last night and think 'wtf was he doing in the game??!'

 

[Mr Meow]

Ad hominem......my point was if your posts were free from the smear of personal derision that sometimes taints them your factual responses would be received better.

Anyhow, I'm leaving all that here. No more.

Duncan's clangers stand out because he was once ultra reliable. He starts games like a rusty gate these days. Imo.

You've said you're leaving it there a few times now, but then adding further thoughts, so it's confusing as to whether you actually want to discuss things.

Regardless, I agree that Duncan's reliability is not as high. I also think we're focussing heavily on the few mistakes (possibly because more occur early?) and ignoring the 15-20 good moments a game. Whereas quite a lot of our players are invisible - you might not be making a mistake, but you are very much letting the opposition dictate the play. Most clubs leading effective disposal winners are their best players. It is worrying for us that Duncan is ranked number 2 for us still, it is time for others to be taking over.

 

[catempire]

It’s the midfield. We are basically down Selwood and Guthrie. Add in Danger has declined slightly (as you’d expect)

You can cover that at home with the narrow ground but is seems much harder away.

When we break even in the mids we win

Gut feel is Danger’s H&A 2023 has been better than 2022.

 

[Spearman]

Yes Jez Cameron is in valey of form he has not been in while at Geelong. Its like those bad hits had thrown him.

Most of the assessment will say the Ess game flattered us becuae Ess really are not that good. The venus flytrap of self delusion is "we played so badly and yet were so close". The stat of our flrom inter state this year is appalling and probably hints at something unpalatable.

Bolded 1: new baby + knock out concussion; don't need to say more. maybe some other niggle somewhere as well.

Bolded 2: nice metaphor,

I think the midfield is makeshift, not populated with A graders, and not entirely cohesive considering the new faces. Back line and offense are proven, the MF need to play out of their skins to compete with the better ones. Any tentativeness will be exploited and have a ripplle on effect with the rest of the team. It reminds me from a few years ago where some players didn't seem confident with their place in the side and it dragged the team a bit. When we got confidence we rolled. Its there still, just harder to call up consistently; with this lineup.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Geelongs 1st half against Coll 1st qtr against Port last qtr against Melb and last qtr against Bris - all top class football that is the annoying thing

Just a wasted season to date - Geel can be a little bit of a nuisance in the finals if they make it - but that is about it

Cats could roll a higher rated - higher finishing up the ladder side in the finals - no problem at all - but to me they lack motivation

 

[Cataholic]

You've said you're leaving it there a few times now, but then adding further thoughts, so it's confusing as to whether you actually want to discuss things.

Regardless, I agree that Duncan's reliability is not as high. I also think we're focussing heavily on the few mistakes (possibly because more occur early?) and ignoring the 15-20 good moments a game. Whereas quite a lot of our players are invisible - you might not be making a mistake, but you are very much letting the opposition dictate the play. Most clubs leading effective disposal winners are their best players. It is worrying for us that Duncan is ranked number 2 for us still, it is time for others to be taking over.

As mentioned to D BRIDGE I think the starkness of Duncan's errors are exaggerated upon recall because he was once so, so reliable.

 

[Mr Meow]

Gut feel is Danger’s H&A 2023 has been better than 2022.

I'm inclined to agree. He just doesn't have Selwood and Guthrie in there with him. If Atkins and Blicavs were more consistently beast mode, and Holmes didn't disappear every second game, our midfield would be somewhat reliable and Danger's output would be considered strong. But it's just not happening so I really think we need Guthrie, somehow back in 2022 form, to compete come finals time.

 

[Cataholic]

Bolded 1: new baby + knock out concussion; don't need to say more. maybe some other niggle somewhere as well.

Bolded 2: nice metaphor,

I think the midfield is makeshift, not populated with A graders, and not entirely cohesive considering the new faces. Back line and offense are proven, the MF need to play out of their skins to compete with the better ones. Any tentativeness will be exploited and have a ripplle on effect with the rest of the team. It reminds me from a few years ago where some players didn't seem confident with their place in the side and it dragged the team a bit. When we got confidence we rolled. Its there still, just harder to call up consistently; with this lineup.

Jumping Jack was saying earlier that he's carrying a shoulder which requires surgery post season.

 

[Mr Meow]

As mentioned to D BRIDGE I think the starkness of Duncan's errors are exaggerated upon recall because he was once so, so reliable.

True.

What I'm noticing though is that in these games where the whole side look "out of sync", for lack of a better term (e.g offensive and defensive run up patterns/link up/transition), a lot of players are having these monumental stuff ups with ball in hand. It seemed like last year options were always presenting - a first, second and third - and spaces appearing. The lack of fluency overall is hurting players like Duncan. We are even getting some really ugly disposals from players like Cameron, Miers and Close at times. It wouldn't surprise me at all if most players turnover rates have increased this season. From my position, I'm slightly more forgiving of a guy at the very end than I am from the 23-28 year olds that are in their absolute prime for pace, skills and reflexes.

 

[you pick one]

Memories are good for this sort of thing, but stats are better.

10 players for the match had 3 turnovers, including Duncan.

12 players had more turnovers than Duncan - 4 Geelong players and 8 Brisbane players.

Only 3 players had more effective disposals than Duncan, so a really nice ratio there.

3 turnovers from 23 disposals for Duncan (13% turnover rate). 78% disposal efficiency and 18 effective disposals. Equal 1st for score involvements.

4 turnovers from 25 disposals for Stewart (16% turnover rate). 80% disposal efficiency and 20 effective disposals. Equal 26th for score involvements.

4 turnovers from 16 disposals for Miers (25% turnover rate). 75% disposal efficiency and 12 effective disposals. Equal 9th for score involements.

6 turnovers from 24 disposals for Bowes (25% turnover rate). 63% disposal efficiency and 15 effective disposals. Equal first for score involvements.

7 turnovers from 18 disposals for Zuthrie (39% turnover rate). 72% disposal efficiency and 13 effective disposals. Equal 37th for score involvements.

Zuthrie easily the worst when comparing ratio of useful to poor disposals. Miers pretty disappointing too. Bowes somewhere in between. Duncan and Stewart two of our only good players on these ratios, while also being our leading ball winners. Both listed in the Geelong best players on the AFL website too (along with Bowes).

As raw numbers you can make the case but you still IMHO need to link them to what your eyes are telling you about the degree of difficulty in the disposal.I don't like hanging my hat on stats as proof of a players worth in a game.

 

[Mr Meow]

As raw numbers you can make the case but you still IMHO need to link them to what your eyes are telling you about the degree of difficulty in the disposal.I don't like hanging my hat on stats as proof of a players worth in a game.

I agree that you need both. But I do think once you factor in ratio to effective disposals (even "safe" disposals can be useful) and score involvements you have a pretty useful system to measure a winger's effectiveness. Ultimately right now we are starved for ball winners and Duncan remains one of them.

Tuohy and Smith I'd venture to say are more erratic and also win less footy. Yet I still think it's players like Zuthrie, Bowes and Holmes who need to step up most in this area if we're to hit top form.

 

[Cataholic]

As raw numbers you can make the case but you still IMHO need to link them to what your eyes are telling you about the degree of difficulty in the disposal.I don't like hanging my hat on stats as proof of a players worth in a game.

There was at least one occasion in the first half where Duncan was under no pressure, yet kicked it straight to a Lion standing a good 15 - 20m on his own.

Obviously a clanger, but there was virtually no 'degree of difficulty' in the kick, and that's what makes it really stand out.

 

[Mattttty]

It’s the midfield. We are basically down Selwood and Guthrie. Add in Danger has declined slightly (as you’d expect)

You can cover that at home with the narrow ground but is seems much harder away.

When we break even in the mids we win

I thought Stewart looked good in the middle when he went in. I'd be interested in how others saw that. Do you think we'll see more of that? He seemed to be able to get back behind the ball again pretty quickly. And it we're not winning the ball to start with, turns out it's pretty hard to win games.