Preview Changes and Preview Brisbane vs Ports @ Gabba, qualifying final thread

[rainwizard39]

They will use Finlayson…

With Dixon out, Finlayson forward is more important.

I’d consider Visintini over Lord as a 3rd tall

 

[Coobk001]

Haven’t heard anyone in the national media or the analytics tipsters give us a sniff this week.

Would be nice if we could shake someone else’s tree in a big final rather than having ours shook!

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All the statistical analysis has us as the biggest outsider for this week, and they'd be right.

 

[Coobk001]

I think Port are prepping to win the home final and winning this week would be a bonus.
But hey, you just need Neale to do a hammy in the first.

Will Port be able to deal with the straight sets bullshit that will be thrown at them next week, will be interesting to see how that plays out.

Perhaps having the AFLW to distract them will be the bone the crowmedia need to keep them distracted.

Whatever happens, it should be a fun few weeks and should tell us a lot about whats really going on.

Going to be barracking so hard for Melbourne Thursday night.
Would like Carlton to beat Sydney and the Giants to beat Ross Lyon.

Que sera sera.
Just enjoy the show, which for me means watching the games with the sound off and/or just listening to each game on the radio.

Expecting and/or hoping for this, would send vicmedia into meltdown.

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Personally I think our best chance of winning the GF is facing the Lions at the MCG on GF day. I also believe Melbourne are the Melb based top 4 team we have the best chance of winning an away final against.

For that reason, I think this path is actually the path that gives us the greatest chance of winning it all.

Obviously winning the QF would be good, but I don't want to face Collingwood at all, and I'd hate to face either Melb or Collingwood on GF day.

 

[Harlott]

This game and the final’s series revolves around three guys in the midfield. They have a great finals series and we’ll win the whole thing. Big if…

 

[pstew2dstew]

To me the 3 most important players that will make us win are JHF Jeremy and Aliir,

We need close to their best from all 3

This applies to the finals run as well

 

[Coobk001]

Brisbane have a history of sitting back, absorbing our attacks, stopping us from scoring and then kicking goals from end to end chains. They then roll this momentum into periods of midfield dominance and tend to be able to turn 1 goal into bunches of goals quickly.

Winning I50's against a team that is camping in your F50 and preparing to hit you on the counter is fruitless. In fact it is how Carlton and the Crows have recently smashed us. We are incredibly vulnerable against fast rebounding teams that run in numbers and handball their way out of the back half.

We need to be supremely efficient going forward, we can't afford to butcher set shots, and we need to dominate the midfield battle for 4 quarters to hold field position and prevent our defence from being exposed. Our defence is prone to hear footsteps and leak goals with ease under pressure and if they get their tails up, and/or get fast moving ball into their F50 we're gone.

I just can't see us holding the composure we will require under the pressure, I also think round 1 was an aberration and their midfield will be hard to stop at home.

My personal prediction is that Brisbane will win by 5-6 goals, Cameron and Daniher will get off the hook, and despite having more I50's we'll never really be in the contest.

 

[davesnothere]

This game and the final’s series revolves around three guys in the midfield. They have a great finals series and we’ll win the whole thing. Big if…

If Jason Horne Francis and Zak Butters and Conner Rozee are made for anything it's finals.

 

[Handyandy]

All the good teams have strong defences that can launch fast counter attacks.
The battle is in the middle
Similar to our last game v Collingwood

 

[Tibbs]

After having zero expectations all year, I am just going to allow myself damn well enjoy the next two games. I watched the video below (5 times!), and am starting to get pumped!

(WARNING: This video might contain NUTS ... Or, images of a smiling Ken Hinkley, both have been known to cause serious harm, and even death in extreme cases)

Houston's extraordinary heave wins it after siren

 

[pstew2dstew]

After having zero expectations all year, I am just going to allow my damn well enjoy the next two games. I watched the video below (5 times!), and am starting to get pumped!

(WARNING: This video might contain NUTS ... Or, images of a smiling Ken Hinkley, both have been known to cause serious harm, and even death in extreme cases)

Houston's extraordinary heave wins it after siren

Compare this to Westhoff and Motlop...

 

[tribey]

This game and the final’s series revolves around three guys in the midfield. They have a great finals series and we’ll win the whole thing. Big if…

I reckon this is overstated a touch.

Judd/Cousins/Kerr/Fletcher/Embley/Cox were lights out in 2005 and fell short (just).

It obviously goes without saying that to be any chance of a flag our midfield has to be unwaveringly excellent over the next month, but history is littered with examples where that won’t be enough against more well-rounded teams (Port 2004 walloping the Fab Four, for instance).

Even just this week convincingly trumping Neale/Dunkley/McCluggage won’t move the needle too much if Brisbane can counter-attack effectively with their fleet of intercept-runners.

 

[TeeKray]

Reality is our midfield is our only weapon.

Our backline consists of a bunch of medium sized players who can all kick the ball really well and all mark the ball reasonably well but all are questionable when asked to defend one on one.

Our forward line is a shambolic mix of role players and mercurial talents who cannot be relied upon to produce in any given game.

Our midfield carries the team to a major extent. Everything good that happens happens because they're involved. If we win any finals it will be totally on the back of a supreme midfield domination. Anything short of that and the team will fall short.

 

[Janus]

Thanks for proving my point.

The problem is Brisbane won't need as much opportunity to score as us because they have more players that can convert i50s to goals.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Not sure how a 50% correlation proves anything other than us losing those games had nothing to do with winning the inside 50 count…especially when 13 of our 17 wins we did win the inside 50 count (76.5%). The only games we won while losing inside 50s were against Sydney, St Kilda, Fremantle and Richmond.

Brisbane are not that good at inside 50 efficiency. The graph I posted early literally tracks their points scored per inside 50 vs points conceded to opposition inside 50. They are like 0.5 points per inside 50 better than us, which is **** all.

We lost inside 50s against Richmond 51-58 and won by 31 because we were twice as efficient at scoring goals than they were.

Fremantle we lost inside 50s 40-46 but again were more efficient at goal, running at 27.5% goals per inside 50 while Fremantle ran at 17.4%. When Brisbane played Fremantle, they also lost inside 50s 47-49, but they went at 23.4% while Fremantle went at 22.4%.

We can easily win this game. The Brisbane in your head doesn’t exist.

 

[Willsy10]

I reckon we win this by 30-40 points.

Marshall to come out and have a blinder after a couple weeks off.

Lycett to play like his career depends on it, because quite frankly it does.

Butters, Rozee and JHF have been waiting for this moment and will play accordingly.

 

[Handyandy]

I think it’s just going to come down to who wins the midfield battle & uses the ball better in front of goals.
We just need a good consistent effort from the whole team.
Bit worried about the umpires on Jhf, butters, Rozee. Brisbane will go after them & I expect minimal protection so Lycett better fly the flag & be ready to lay some big blocks

 

[Malibu#27]

With Dixon out, Finlayson forward is more important.

I’d consider Visintini over Lord as a 3rd tall

Thats a brave selection given Visintini's out for two weeks

 

[Interstater]

Thats a brave selection given Visintini's out for two weeks

Injury list
Trent McKenzie – knee (test)
Charlie Dixon – foot (1-2 weeks)
Dante Visentini – quad (1-2 weeks)
Josh Sinn – hamstring (season)
Tom Clurey – back (season)
Mitch Georgiades – knee (season)

Wasn't aware of the quaddie, play Hayes then
Yeh right.

 

[240volt]

What I suspect will happen though is that we will get jumped out of the centre early & concede a 2-3 goal margin. Work hard just to stay in the game. Dominate the 3rd & kick 2.8, then Brisbane to sink us with 5-6 straight goal burst late in the third or early 4th

I think it’s important we start good, for some reason we are always running around like old woman first up after the bye.
That really needs to be addressed, we start slow up there she’s curtains.

 

[Janus]

Since someone seems to give more of a shit about goals per inside 50:



Brisbane is 1% more efficient than scoring and defending goals than we are. In other words, in a game where the inside 50s were even at 50 a piece, Brisbane would win by 3 points.

 

[afl2004]

 

[Orange crush]

Drew on Neale and a half-eaten meat pie on McLuggage and your mids will give them such a bath

 

[Educatednuffy]

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ahahahahhhahahahahahah we are absolutely F****D

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

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haha what the hell.

Of all things to base your season on, you choose a bomb. That causes misery and destruction. OK then

 

[crafty_bernardo]

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Out in straight sets it is!

 

[Watto71]

Wines please shut up