Preview Changes & Preview for Semi Final 2 vs Hawthorn @AO

[MrChow]

last weeks capitulation was a sum of many parts, but in terms of selection I wouldn’t be changing that much.

I think Sinn should play, DBJ forward, and Mcentee out. I’d back Dixon in again over Marshall, especially with Frost out.

I’d be getting JHF in the centre square at the first bounce with Butters and Ollie, and have Rozee at half forward.

Both Sinn and Burton as replacements for the A team are capable of much more run and drive.

I’d be putting a rocket under Sweet. He needs to get back to being a tackling machine at the stoppages.

And finally, team f’n defence. We have to force Hawthorn down the line. It’s a big game for Allir.

 

[El Zorro]

If you're going off all time V/AFL then we have the 4th worst win percentage. Only Freo, Saints, and the Dogs are worse.

oh, well. there you go

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Sorry to butt in after I caused a big bunfight in the ' sack hinkley ' thread, but I wouldn't necessarily agree with this. Sydney have been a bogey side for Port for many years prior to the current streak, every bit as bad as Geelong and North Melbourne. Up to the start of the current streak in 2017, the head to head record is pretty diabolical:

Rd 1 2017

17.8​

12.1​

Port Adelaide

28​

SCG

8\20

3 - C Wingard, A Young

I'm not sure that you're disagreeing with my post at all - most of the current Sydney stars weren't even there in 2017 and its the recent history that matters.

You don't want to play a side that beat you last time out by over 100, even if they are the biggest finals chokers in modern history. They'd feel pretty confident against the Hawks I'd think (which is a wish they will probably get).

 

[TeeKray]

It's not just losing finals, it's losing finals from higher ladder positions.

For example, Essendon are a meme for having not won a final for 20 years but the truth is they haven't lost a final as the higher ranked team in all that time. More than anything, they just haven't been a good enough team to actually win finals.

We on the other hand are good enough but we can't handle the pressure of the occasion. We would comfortably lead the league for finals losses against lower ranked opposition (just think - any home final you lose is against a lower ranked team and we've lost plenty of them).

 

[ClintEastwood]

The question is why did the players drop their bundle from about 10 minutes to do in the 2nd half.

I would say the coach only has one gameplan and it becomes obvious after a while to the players whether it is going to work or not and in a final like this, they know no matter what they do, they are not going to win which eventually erodes the will to compete. Doubling down on that is the lack of accountability that will be asked of the players and the coach.

I'm sure everyone has had a bad leader in their sports, business or family life which leads to a toxic environment and how this works. It's not ideal and most people run for the hills. You can't do that in footy but you can stop trying.

We've had the same gameplan for many years now. It's the same gameplan that didn't work last year in finals, twice.
Are you saying the players only realised it wasn't gonna work again around half-time?

Tredders said there wasn't enough effort. He also acknowledged the gameplan has some big flaws. He didn't say "well, the players probably gave up because of the flaws in the gameplan, soooo that's understandable". Choco's gameplan wasn't perfect either ... think 2007. But I don't recall Tredders giving up too many times, or not working hard enough. In fact in the 2007 GF he was one of our only decent players.

Giving up is NEVER okay. Stopping trying before the final siren, when you have a Port Adelaide guernsey on your back, is NEVER okay, no excuses.

The gameplan can be countered effectively, as Geelong amply demonstrated (and plenty of teams have before). But you can win with it - if the whole team buys in and you give a serious four quarter effort. We didn't get that.

 

[FishingRick04]

I want to see pressure gauge metrics through the roof whole game, win or lose I can accept

 

[Schulzenfest]

It's not just losing finals, it's losing finals from higher ladder positions.

For example, Essendon are a meme for having not won a final for 20 years but the truth is they haven't lost a final as the higher ranked team in all that time. More than anything, they just haven't been a good enough team to actually win finals.

We on the other hand are good enough but we can't handle the pressure of the occasion. We would comfortably lead the league for finals losses against lower ranked opposition (just think - any home final you lose is against a lower ranked team and we've lost plenty of them).

Yep. Saw a graphic on the weekend that said Hinkley's winning percentage in home finals is 38%, every single other team in the league has a percentage of at least 60%. And that graphic included neutral games (i.e one Melbourne based team playing at 'home' against another Melbourne based team), I can only assume if you took them out it'd be even worse.

 

[GremioPower]

IDK. How do we compare with other clubs? I just had a quick look at the crows from 2001 and they are 10-15. West Coast are 14-15. I am sure Geelong has done well in finals. But I doubt we are the only ones with a negative finals record.

That’s not the proper measure. It must consider Top-3 finishes as well.

 

[1954]

I've been hearing people say today there should be a Chad Wingard farewell thing before the game, but I think the last thing this meek club needs is a touchy feely moment shared with a club you are about to battle in a final.

*And I love The Chad

Agreed, the opportunity for the kokmeister to drape himself all over his hawk's equivalent and tongue his ear could be too much for him to resist.

 

[PowerLil]

Were going to win 3 games this year and the next 6 in 2025?

When we lose on Friday can we booooo Ken?

Absolutely. Only reason I'm going.

 

[Chrizzt]

If DBJ starts in defence this week I think I may actually prolapse

 

[JimmyBC]

Why we've never addressed the lack of small defenders that can really go with dangerous small forwards is another perplexing issue, even the Crows have turned up Bond who looks extremely promising in that role.

 

[Lighthouse End]

I'm not sure that you're disagreeing with my post at all - most of the current Sydney stars weren't even there in 2017 and its the recent history that matters.

You don't want to play a side that beat you last time out by over 100, even if they are the biggest finals chokers in modern history. They'd feel pretty confident against the Hawks I'd think (which is a wish they will probably get).

No, fair point. Wasn't disagreeing with your post in essence, just the raw numbers. It's the accountant hat on.
You do make a very valid point about recent history and streaks. Very much the same as North Melbourne had you guys between the ears for years, it seems you now have the Toilet Ducks the same way after many years of them dominating Port. These sorts of things are very real in football at all levels, and do sit like a mental gorilla on a team's shoulders.

 

[TazD]

I want to see pressure gauge metrics through the roof whole game, win or lose I can accept

Considering we're the worst groundball team in the finals a high pressure game should be the last thing we want. Thats not to say bruise free pretty footy is anyway to win finals but that Ken is an idiot who should be sacked immediately.

 

[JimmyBC]

The pressure thing is weird with us though we were off the charts a few weeks back, we seem to regress to spectating with every flog wanting to sweat off for easy ball ski season.

 

[Chrizzt]

Why we've never addressed the lack of small defenders that can really go with dangerous small forwards is another perplexing issue, even the Crows have turned up Bond who looks extremely promising in that role.

Pretty sure that was the hope with Jones, but he's turning out to more be that third tall option rather than small lockdown.

I'd deadset be ok with even trying McEntee as that lockdown small. He's clearly never going to have an impact as a forward, but maybe he's tight enough to shut down a dangerous small forward, who knows.

 

[Dazalinko1988]

Port should use ginnivans comments to end there season like eddy's comments back in 2013 use it as fuel and then comment that they'll see them in 6 months!! But we know that won't happen to soft to mentally fragile catchya Ken

 

[Troopsy]

Going in with a win-win mindset. Win, we go through. Lose, we sack Hinkley

 

[Duckimus Prime]

IDK. How do we compare with other clubs? I just had a quick look at the crows from 2001 and they are 10-15. West Coast are 14-15. I am sure Geelong has done well in finals. But I doubt we are the only ones with a negative finals record.

Win-loss records in finals are a strange thing. If you finish the year in third or fourth place, and then Finals results go as expected, you end up with a 1-2 record.

If you finish in fifth or sixth place, and Finals go as expected you end up with a 1-1 record.

So which team is worse? The one with the 33% win rate that beat the fifth placed team, but lost to 1st and 2nd?

Or the one with the 50% win rate, that lost to the team with the worse win rate.

 

[Bump Bailey]

Port should use ginnivans comments to end there season like eddy's comments back in 2013 use it as fuel and then comment that they'll see them in 6 months!! But we know that won't happen to soft to mentally fragile catchya Ken

Ginnivan is a goose but if you need to use six harmless words posted on social media as artificial motivation to perform in an AFL Final, you are in all sorts.

 

[Dazalinko1988]

Ginnivan is a goose but if you need to use six harmless words posted on social media as artificial motivation to perform in an AFL Final, you are in all sorts.

Was harmless yea I get it but clearly disrespects port so if I was Ken I'd rev them up is all I'm saying have some mongrel but they're weak as piss so it won't matter

 

[Tibbs]

Yeah I’m the soft one for not getting triggered by a silly instagram post by the leagues biggest shit stirrer.

If a light hearted instagram post is what it takes for our players to show a bit of fight then we really are ****ed.

I didn’t say the players can’t use it as motivation or that they shouldn’t get stuck in to Ginnivan, but any one who has a legitimate issue with what he posted needs to grow up a bit.

"A light hearted instagram post"

People thinking this are absolutely crazy! In the context of what has, and is taking place, Ginnivan's comments would have to be one of the most dumbest pre-game brain-farts ever! Mitchell will be absolutely furious!

And your second point about "having an issue" with it, actually completely misses the issue! The fact is that it is a clear insult to the Port players, completely dismissing them as a threat and as a team. The people that have a real issue with his comments are Hawthorn players & officials. They absolutely do not share your view! He will be hauled over the coals by them.

Do Port people have an "issue" with him. Not at all. Port coaches & hierarchy will be stoked about this, and if they have any brains, make it the theme of the week. It will steel the players, who while they already should be embarrassed and angry, should now be doubling down to make amends.

The only "issue" I have with his comments, is that it might actually fire up the players enough to make a difference, so they win and give Stinkley another game!!

 

[GremioPower]

Win-loss records in finals are a strange thing. If you finish the year in third or fourth place, and then Finals results go as expected, you end up with a 1-2 record.

If you finish in fifth or sixth place, and Finals go as expected you end up with a 1-1 record.

So which team is worse? The one with the 33% win rate that beat the fifth placed team, but lost to 1st and 2nd?

Or the one with the 50% win rate, that lost to the team with the worse win rate.

That’s why I’ve made a table with extra wins (Top 4 = 1 win; SF bye = 1 win) and extra losses (Final not played = 1 loss).

So, a team that doesn’t qualify is 0-5; while any team eliminated in SF is 1-4.

 

[GremioPower]

Ginnivan is a goose but if you need to use six harmless words posted on social media as artificial motivation to perform in an AFL Final, you are in all sorts.

You do not NEED to do it, but you certainly SHOULD do it.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

We've had the same gameplan for many years now. It's the same gameplan that didn't work last year in finals, twice.
Are you saying the players only realised it wasn't gonna work again around half-time?

Tredders said there wasn't enough effort. He also acknowledged the gameplan has some big flaws. He didn't say "well, the players probably gave up because of the flaws in the gameplan, soooo that's understandable". Choco's gameplan wasn't perfect either ... think 2007. But I don't recall Tredders giving up too many times, or not working hard enough. In fact in the 2007 GF he was one of our only decent players.

Giving up is NEVER okay. Stopping trying before the final siren, when you have a Port Adelaide guernsey on your back, is NEVER okay, no excuses.

The gameplan can be countered effectively, as Geelong amply demonstrated (and plenty of teams have before). But you can win with it - if the whole team buys in and you give a serious four quarter effort. We didn't get that.

I agree.

What I'm saying is that the lads go in the game knowing the gameplan and the play it with a good idea that it will either work or not work or they are bailed out by a masterclass of a game from Robbie Gray.

During the game it becomes obvious that it's not working and they lose their bundle.

Obviously you should play for four quarters but twelve years of the same gameplan that doesn't work does get to you. Bad leadership with bad decisions get to you.

And the thing is that is not the only problem. You work your butt off and then see the coach pick Jed and Dixon and the other forwards who are borderline useless.