Preview Changes: R5 2021 vs Fremantle

[Scorpus]

He's been the best in the entire AFL at his role this season, which jars with the groupthink about Lynch.

Sure, but not today

 

[Vader]

I mean, thats obvious - one is the clubs leading goal kicker of all time and played over 200 games and the other is a 25 game player.....

Literally noboby is calling Walker to be dropped instead of Fogarty, I'm not even sure why you even make this comparison.

Walker kicked 23 goals from 14 games in his debut season (2009). By the end of his 3rd season, he'd played 45 games and kicked 90 goals.

Fogarty's first 3 seasons yielded just 24 games and 25 goals (today makes 25 & 29 respectively). That's how far he is behind where Tex was at the same point in his career.

Fogarty is Walker-lite-lite.

 

[hey shorty]

Sure, but not today

Unless he's injured he'll stay in and I'm semi ok with that. Allow 1 bad game for senior guys before the axe falls.

I'm not as fussed with his lack of goals if he's setting them up.

Today he cost goals with horrid errors.

 

[MRB37]

Matchups will also dictate our selections somewhat I think. Freo play 2 rucks in Darcy and Meek, that means they may decide to keep Frampton in to take those backup ruck minutes, it also creates a issue down back. If Butts takes Tabener it means you've got Kelly on a 200cm+ Darcy/Meek. So I'd also consider a Kelly for Murray swap to even that up a bit.

 

[Vader]

Fogarty and 3 goals out.
In. Not three goals.
That's essentially the logic going on in here.

Fogarty out, and forward pressure in... potentially creating 3 goals from other sources, or denying opposition goals after they stream the ball effortlessly out of our forward line. That's the logic going on here.

Having the 3 tall forward line (not counting Lynch, who plays further up the ground) objectively makes our structure worse.

 

[Mego Red]

We were one tall too many up forward. One of Frampton, Lynch and Fogarty needs to go.

Lynch stays. He's played ok this season overall and we love him. Fogarty makes things interesting with his 3 goals. Frampton can't play at all. If we could cobble ruck minutes from anyone else it would be an easy call.

I think we'll just stick with an ineffective structure because it saves us a hard call.

Frampton's just keeping the seat warm for Thilthorpe, hopefully sooner rather than later. Sure, Thilthorpe might not be 'ready' (barely any kids are ready straight away - playing AFL games helps them get there) but the benchmark he has to get over is only about 5 ineffective possessions and a few calamitous fu** ups.

I suspect Himmelberg ran over Nicks' dog before Christmas so he's out of the picture. And knows it, judging by his SANFL form.

Lynch played SOME deeper forward minutes today, but has barely played inside 50 this year. He's not there to be a forward - hell, even today he played the majority of his minutes in the defensive half, according to the Telstra tracker.

I do think he might be injured though.

 

[Mego Red]

Sure, but not today

Yeah, fair enough. I think he was fine today, but not at the standard he'd been earlier.

 

[MrBarry]

Fogarty out, and forward pressure in... potentially creating 3 goals from other sources, or denying opposition goals after they stream the ball effortlessly out of our forward line. That's the logic going on here.

Yeah very little 'logic' going on there pal.

You want to take goals out of the team, in order to 'potentially create them from other sources'.

lol.

 

[CrowCro]

Worrell for Kelly as he was back to Kelly of old

Hately for McHenry, do we really need McAdam, McHenry, Murphy and Rowe. If they don't want to drop that formula then bring in Newchurch for McHenry

Frampton for Berg

We need to turn Worrell into a Fwd. We have defenders and are serisly lacking fwd with Walker and Lynch in their final years

 

[Alwaysacrow]

Yep, agree 100%, It’s harsh but I’d drop Fog, Yeah he kicked 3 goals, but had zero influence in general play and provides less than zero forward pressure, all this talk of turning him into a part time mid is just that, talk. Until Walker is injured or his form demands he be dropped Fog doesn’t seem to have a role in this team.

No way. Though Frampton saw more of the ball he did nothing with it as usual. No way he stays and Fog goes.

 

[hey shorty]

We need to turn Worrell into a Fwd. We have defenders and are serisly lacking fwd with Walker and Lynch in their final years

Fogarty and Thilthorpe can take the bulk of the forward work, Worrell could play down there at times too. He could almost play anywhere.

 

[jackster83]

Unless he's injured he'll stay in and I'm semi ok with that. Allow 1 bad game for senior guys before the axe falls.

I'm not as fussed with his lack of goals if he's setting them up.

Today he cost goals with horrid errors.

Since R1 he has one goal assist and zero goals.

Can't keep living off that game forever. Ditto Frampton.

 

[Golumless]

We were losing for most of the game.

Frampton offers nothing up forward and his Rocking is not enough to keep him in.

Tilthorpe has to come in for him and we work something out for the centre bounces RoB doesn't attend.

For me it is McHenry out for Hately. The small forwards offered little this week and McHenry the worst. One of these guys needs to make way for a proper mid IMO

Rowe contributed more than McHenry and has X factor, natural goal nous. Murphy was a decent part of the midfield rotation. McAdam wasca big reason we won, despite an early knock affecting him.

I would go McAsey or Murray for Lynch. We lack height down back. Lynch is injured. His role up forward can be covered by Fog



Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

Nah, McHenry had Rowe covered this week.

13 disposals, 7 score involvements, 28 pressure acts compared to 9 disposals, 4 score involvements and 19 pressure acts.

Mind you, I'm not moving on any of them at the moment. Rowe is finding his feet, and looks a goal a game small (who is doing a pretty solid job on defence which was a bit of a weakness coming into this year). McHenry is probably the best pressure forward we have, and alongside Berry, Murphy and Shoenberg are all playing a big role in that added toughness we have in tight games. McAdam and Murphy have found some pretty useful niches as well.

 

[hey shorty]

Since R1 he has one goal assist and zero goals.

Can't keep living off that game forever. Ditto Frampton.

He's been playing upfield a lot more, giving Tex the space he needs to do what he does.

Numerous times he started on the wing.

 

[jackster83]

He's been playing upfield a lot more, giving Tex the space he needs to do what he does.

Numerous times he started on the wing.

His score involvements and inside 50 stats are dropping off by the week.

Think his time is nearly up.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Unless he's injured he'll stay in and I'm semi ok with that. Allow 1 bad game for senior guys before the axe falls.

I'm not as fussed with his lack of goals if he's setting them up.

Today he cost goals with horrid errors.

He is injured, which the club confirmed.

He didn't train properly all week & it showed.

We need to learn that we should not be playing unfit players... particularly in rebuild mode it's just stupid.

 

[Vader]

Yeah very little 'logic' going on there pal.

You want to take goals out of the team, in order to 'potentially create them from other sources'.

lol.

Any analysis which says "we drop Fogarty we automatically lose the 3 goals he kicked, and nothing else changes" is infantile and overly-simplistic. The fact is that his replacement would have had an impact on the game, albeit in a different way to the impact Fogarty had on the game.

What that impact may have been is purely hypothetical. We know that Fogarty provides zero defensive pressure, and wins zero ball if it's not coming in lace out, so it's highly likely that any other player we bring in would have improved on those aspects of the game.

We know that the 3-tall forward structure is unbalanced, and really bad at applying defensive pressure. That means fewer repeat I50s, and more rebound scoring at the other end. We're very lucky that we were playing North today, who are easily the worst team in the competition - and who weren't able to make us pay for our lack of forward pressure. Returning to the 2-tall structure, which worked so well in R1-3, would fix that balance.

 

[Vader]

No way. Though Frampton saw more of the ball he did nothing with it as usual. No way he stays and Fog goes.

 

[MrBarry]

What that impact may have been is purely hypothetical. We know that Fogarty provides zero defensive pressure

Kicking goals applies pressure on the opposition.

 

[Vader]

He's been playing upfield a lot more, giving Tex the space he needs to do what he does.

Numerous times he started on the wing.

If we're only using him as a decoy, with no expections of him making a positive contribution, then maybe we could be using TT as a decoy instead?

This is the second week in a row where he has literally been worse than useless - i.e. worse than a player who didn't even set foot on the field.

 

[Murray2503]

Just watched Freo make me some money against Hawks.
The two players we must stop next week are Brayshaw (their number 1 mid) and Mundy. Fyfe is a shadow of his former self, damaging but no longer a running player. Other players we must keep an eye on are Cerra, Darcy, Taberner, Serong, Walters, Chapman. Lucky for us the dockers have injuries to many of their first 22 players.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

I'm glad you're not the coach.

 

[Vader]

Kicking goals applies pressure on the opposition.

True... but it's a different kind of pressure. No reason to think that Fogarty's replacement wouldn't provide at least some scoreboard pressure, as well as defensive pressure, and the ability to win his own ball in the forward line.

The replacement may not have kicked 3 goals themselves - but if they kicked 1 themselves, and helped create/prevent 2 more, then at worst we come out even. Obviously this is hypothetical, but it's not at all unreasonable.

 

[Golumless]

Actually a difficult week changes wise:

Out: Lynch (inj), Frampton

In: Hately, Thilthorpe

Lynch looked hampered and off this week (fair enough, toe injuries are horrible, so props for playing it out), and our inside game looked like it really suffered without Sloane, seeing how there were periods North overpowered us, so Hately comes in. Not exactly a form switch as much as I was encouraged by his game yesterday, but feels necessary.

Frampton again was a liability. Couple of nice marks and the rest was rough to the point they CD said Mackay had a bigger influence on the game. Thilthorpe again isn't in the best of nick, but really, it's as good of time as any.

 

[Mego Red]

He's been playing upfield a lot more, giving Tex the space he needs to do what he does.

Numerous times he started on the wing.

If you look at his heatmap, it is almost entirely between the arcs.