Unofficial Preview Changes V Carlton (Reid, Blair, Sinkers & Marsh in, four omitted or rested, see OP for team)

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Jon Marsh's family are organising travel arrangements to be in Melbourne for this weekend. May just be a co-incidence, but...

In Marsh Reid Blair Oxley White
Out Langdon (inj) Seedsman Witts Maynard Dwyer
 
White couldn't bust open a packet of chips.
whilst I'm pretty sure everyone knows where you're coming from, the reality is that White is actually just as capable of busting open packs as Cloke. The question is why doesn't he? We've all seen him do it but why so rarely? Is it all about instructions he has not to get in Cloke's way or is there more to it? From what I've seen, he seems to lack confidence when he goes for the ball which would explain why so often we also see him fail to attack a ground ball when it's there to be won. I have always been in favour of giving White time to gain the confidence needed but if after all this time he's not getting closer to it you have to wonder if as a club we aren't better off focusing elsewhere for what we need to support Clokey.
 
whilst I'm pretty sure everyone knows where you're coming from, the reality is that White is actually just as capable of busting open packs as Cloke. The question is why doesn't he? We've all seen him do it but why so rarely? Is it all about instructions he has not to get in Cloke's way or is there more to it? From what I've seen, he seems to lack confidence when he goes for the ball which would explain why so often we also see him fail to attack a ground ball when it's there to be won. I have always been in favour of giving White time to gain the confidence needed but if after all this time he's not getting closer to it you have to wonder if as a club we aren't better off focusing elsewhere for what we need to support Clokey.

I was against recruiting White because I thought he was too soff, in that he lacked the natural aggression to take the game on. Unfortunately he has continued on at Collingwood in the same manner. At the moment I see his best role as a third forward/ruck who moves around the ground well and can get at on the lead. Longer term we are going to need to recruit another KPF or develop one from within, such as Marsh. At least on Saturday we should hopefully return to the three forward set up (Reid, Moore, White) in which we play our best footy.
 
Going by recent team selections in expecting to see
Out: Moore, Swan, Brown
In: Gault, Armstrong, Cox
 
Revising my ins and outs given Cloke apparently won't be playing.

Out: Witts
In: White
Fan of Witts but he's been down and we're too slow with him and Grundy. White had a decent game vs the Dogs and never should have been dropped. He takes the second ruck role, and otherwise provides a target up forward and more athletic presence around the ground.

Out: Seedsman
In: Reid
Not a like for like, but we need another forward target. If Cloke were ok, you might give Reid another week, but it's time to pull the trigger and play him at FF. Seedsman did bugger all last week, so we don't lose much.

Out: Frost
In: Marsh
Big fan of Frost and certainly not someone who guns for him week in week out. But hasn't been great last couple of weeks and it's time to see what Marsh can do. Gives Marsh the chance to find his feet against a VFL standard key forward as well.

Possible Out: Elliott
In: Blair
Up there with the dickhead decision to drop White with no replacement was the choice to play an unfit Elliott. If he's not right to play a full game this week, let him play in the VFL where we can more easily manage his gametime. Blair the obvious replacement as a small forward.

Dwyer stays in but as the sub, a role he does pretty well.

B: Toovey Brown Langdon
HB: Maynard Marsh Williams
C: Crisp Greenwood Sidebottom
HF: Varcoe White Swan
F: Fasolo Reid Moore
Foll: Grundy Pendlebury Adams
Int: Scharenberg de Goey Elliott/Blair
Sub: Dwyer
 
Jon Marsh's family are organising travel arrangements to be in Melbourne for this weekend. May just be a co-incidence, but...

In Marsh Reid Blair Oxley White
Out Langdon (inj) Seedsman Witts Maynard Dwyer
They were at the VFL game on Sunday too, so might just be the fact that he's playing on the MCG either way. But it's a good sign.
 

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Jon Marsh's family are organising travel arrangements to be in Melbourne for this weekend. May just be a co-incidence, but...

In Marsh Reid Blair Oxley White
Out Langdon (inj) Seedsman Witts Maynard Dwyer
If that's true then he's a lock. Pretty sure they only just came over to visit him last week.

Edit: mattys123 beat me to it
 
They were at the VFL game on Sunday too, so might just be the fact that he's playing on the MCG either way. But it's a good sign.
We know you're the real father.
 
IN: Marsh, White, Reid, Blair, Karnezis
OUT: Maynard, Witts, Seedsman, De Goey, Dwyer

I think we have both structural changes to make, and changes to reward form in the 2s when the seniors are on 6 losses in a row.

Structurally, the main area is the forward line where our little experiment last week didn't work so I would bring Reid and White in to have a proper forward line of Reid-Moore-White-Elliott-Fas-rotating mid. Don't care if White wasn't great in the windy Williamstown oval, he's a better forward than Witts and Grundy and Witts is on a run of really poor games. Can't have Grundy ruck 100% of the game and no one else suitable for pinch hitting in our current line up.

Strongest VFL form has to be rewarded: Marsh consistently in our best VFL players and Karnezis consistently involved, scoring goals and last game had 8 tackles. Also Blair looks like he was a cut above at VFL level and I think he will bring some of the pressure we need forward and in the midfield.

With the Carlton line up of Casboult/Henderson/resting ruck we can't drop Frost for Marsh so for mine he comes in at Maynard's expense. The other consideration here is Langdon, I think he had a good game last week but he looked tired to me, as he did before the bye. He's played all 17 games for us and is the only youngster to have done so (other 17-gamers are Pendles, Varcoe, Swan and Brown). If my impression is right and he needs a rest just swap him and Maynard for the change. Also giving De Goey a spell in the 2s to keep building his game and working on his ball use as he seems to struggle a bit with the pace of AFL in that area of his game. Seedsman out is self explanatory, he just isn't right at the moment, let him go back and build confidence once he dominates the VFL.

Line up would look like that:
B: Toovey Brown Marsh
HB: Langdon Frost Williams
C: Crisp Swan Sidebottom
HF: Varcoe White Fasolo
F: Elliott Reid Moore
Foll: Grundy Pendlebury Adams
Int: Scharenberg, Blair, Greenwood
Sub: Karnezis
 
Does Marsh have the speed and agility to play as a back pocket or half back? Or is he only a full back/chb player?

Essentially I'm asking if he comes in for Langdon, Frost or Brown? Brown has been our premier defender this year so I wouldn't drop him.

My changes:

In: Marsh
Out: Frost
Reason: Frost has played almost every game in 2014/2015 and has just run in to a bit of bad form. Not unexpected. He is still a solid player but I think he might need a week of omission from both afl and vfl teams to rest, or just play vfl to get some form back.
The complication here is that playing an inexperienced KPD is a big risk. Marsh might kill it, or he might get owned. Vfl yo afl is a big jump. The other complication is that Marsh deserves 3 games minimum to prove himself. But chances are we'll need frost back when we play the better teams. Who goes out to allow marsh to stay then? The only person I can think of is Shaz... And I don't really want him dropped either.

In: Sinclair
Out: Toovey
Reason: I know people on here use Sinclair as the proverbial whipping boy... But he's actually pretty good as a small rebounding defender. Towards the end of last year his disposal and decision making had significantly improved.
Toovey is simply not playing great at the moment. His supreme defence skills and pace were the justification for him being in the side in the wake of his poor disposal. He has lost his way in this a bit and needs a spell in the 2's. Sinclair will be just as serviceable as Toovey has been in recent weeks in my opinion.

In: Blair
Out: Seedsman
Reason: not close to a like-for-like but I'm counting on the fact that Travis V can go back and play in defence of needs be.
Blair is still too classy for vfl. He isn't getting major midfield minutes when he comes in to the AFL, and I think the reason is that he is more versatile than say a greenwood or Adams. Neither of the aforementioned are good at playing forward. Blair and De Goey can play forward much better, so they get less midfield minutes.
Seeds in my opinion is done. I am very disappointed that he hasn't come on. This season he has got worse. Blair adds experience to the side and is far from soft.

In: karnezis
Out: Dwyer
Reason: Karnezis had a bloody good game against the best vfl side. We all know that he can't seem to translate these performances to afl level which is highly disappointing. But I figure we have very little to lose at this point. I think he needs to be given a go, but needs to be played predominantly as a forward. He can mark, and is a known goal kicker. Needs to be played in attack. His defensive game simply isn't good enough for midfield.

In: White/Reid
Out: Witts
Reason: this is tricky. My gut says play white because we need him in the ruck if we only have 1 ruckman.
My heart says play Reid cause he's the better player. The Reid and Moore combo is also better than a white/Moore combo. But, both Reid and Moore are that slender lead-up style forward... That makes our forward line quite 1 dimensional and really requires our mids to deliver well. If Carlton decide to play spare man in defence as Melbourne did then this could kill us.
Both Witts and Grundy lift when they're number 1 ruckman. Either would be fine, but I prefer Grundy.


So that's my take on it. As for the sub, I'd probably make De Goey sub this week.
 
Reid is a certainty this week, but seriously why is so injury-prone?

In 08-10 he hardly missed a game
 
.
In: White/Reid
Out: Witts
.

Both White and Reid have to play if Witts misses out. If Reid goes down as feared, we have only Moore as presence up front and no 2nd ruck .
White is best 3rd forward. To put him in another role should be emergency only.
Forward line of Moore/Reid/White I like.
 
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