List Mgmt. Contract, Trade and Draft Discussions - 2024 Post Season

[Keys]

Quick links

• Player contract status
• Draft prospect video highlights (thanks to noobermensch)
• AFL retirements and delistings
• Provisional 2025 Draft order

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Trade period
In: 12, F1, F2, F3, 73, Baker, Owies, Graham*
Out: 3, 63, F4, Barrass, Darling

*Free agent

Done deals

• Jai Culley, Alex Witherden
  23

  Alex Witherden

  Age

  26

  Ht

  188cm

  Wt

  85kg

  Pos.

  Def

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  20.7

  5star

  K

  15.2

  5star

  HB

  5.5

  4star

  M

  6.2

  5star

  T

  1.8

  4star

  MG

  386.5

  5star

  D

  13.0

  3star

  K

  10.0

  4star

  HB

  3.0

  2star

  M

  7.0

  5star

  T

  0.0

  1star

  MG

  201.0

  3star

  D

  24.0

  5star

  K

  15.4

  5star

  HB

  8.6

  5star

  M

  5.8

  5star

  T

  2.2

  4star

  MG

  380.2

  5star

  and Coby Burgiel delisted
  • Burgiel to be considered as a train on player

• Tom Barrass traded to Hawthorn
  • In: F1, F2, F3 (HAW)
  • Out: Barrass, F4

• Liam Baker and Matt Owies join West Coast in Pick 3 trade
  • In: Baker, Owies, 12, 73
  • Out: 3, 63, 68

• Jack Darling traded to North Melbourne for Pick 67

• Jack Graham joins West Coast as UFA

• Jake Waterman re-signs with West Coast until at least 2029

• Zane Trew, Jamaine Jones
  31

  Jamaine Jones

  Age

  26

  Ht

  180cm

  Wt

  80kg

  Pos.

  D/F

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  9.0

  2star

  K

  4.8

  2star

  HB

  4.2

  3star

  M

  2.1

  2star

  T

  3.8

  5star

  MG

  159.6

  3star

  D

  10.5

  3star

  K

  6.5

  3star

  HB

  4.0

  3star

  M

  2.5

  3star

  T

  4.0

  5star

  MG

  196.5

  3star

  D

  9.0

  3star

  K

  4.2

  2star

  HB

  4.8

  4star

  M

  2.4

  3star

  T

  4.2

  5star

  MG

  166.0

  3star

  and Jordyn Baker delisted

• Archer Reid (2027), Loch Rawlinson (2025), and Coen Livingstone (2025) sign extensions

 

[We_The_West]

Isnt Jack Hutchinson just a 190cm utility with midfield potential?

.... You're right... bring in Bo Allen!

 

[Farang83150]

North were a pretty successful side in the mid to late 70’s then had the Krakouer brothers in the 80’s

Barry Cable was a huge name at the time playing for North (when there was no knowledge of his shenanigans). There was also Ross Glendinning, Peter Spencer and Phil Kelly playing for them who were all popular WA players

A lot of the supporters they built in WA during that period stayed loyal. I didn’t though, I switched

Yep, It was must watch Sunday evening tv for all the kids around my area, always looked fwd to mark and goal of the rnd!
Their comp was absolutely full of some of the best WA players to ever grace the field (IMO)... Not a sth freo fan at all but was very happy Stephen Michael didn't go.
Got the tune stuck in my head now so may as well share


The Wnners

 

[We_The_West]

Okay let's have a look at the data:

List analysis: Which club has the most All-Australians, top-10 picks?

Which club has the most All-Australians, and which has the most top-10 picks?

www.afl.com.au

Successful list management appears to be focused on nailing the later picks rather than the Top 10.

 

[eaglevision]

Cam’s latest rankings. Very interesting indeed.

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' October ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fourth Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

01: LEVI ASHCROFT.
02: FINN O'SULLIVAN.
03: HARVEY LANGFORD.
04: SAM LALOR.
05: JAGGA SMITH.
06: MURPHY REID.
07: SID DRAPER.
08: JOSH SMILLIE.
09: ALIX TAURU.
10: HARRY ARMSTRONG.
11: TOBIE TRAVAGLIA.
12: BO ALLAN.
13: LEONARDO LOMBARD.
14: ISAAC KAKO.
15: TAJ HOTTON.
16: XAVIER LINDSAY.
17: LUKE TRAINOR.
18: JOE BERRY.
19: JACK WHITLOCK.
20: JOBE SHANAHAN.
21: COOPER HYNES.
22: SAM MARSHALL.
23: MATT WHITLOCK.
24: JESSE DATTOLI.
25: JONTY FAULL.
26: HARRISON OLIVER.
27: TOM GROSS.
28: OLLIE HANNAFORD.
29: ALEX DODSON.
30: CHRISTIAN MORAES.

We won’t pick Hotton so going off that looks like Lindsay and Moraes.

 

[Dark Sharks]

Jack Carroll played 15 games and only averaged 10 touches a game? Why would we be interested?
What's the explanation for why he got so few disposals but kept on being selected?

Sub, ever heard of it?

If you're going to quote stats you need to at least look at the proper ones cuzzin. Carroll was sub impacted in 9 of the 15 games you mentioned.

Excluding sub games he's suddenly averaging 15.5 touches a game, and this is getting scrap mid time behind Cripps, Walsh, Kennedy, Cera etc etc.

Much like Dev, if you put him at the coal face and let him actually play football, he's reasonable.


Wouldn't expect huge things from him, but he seems handy at AFL level, so would add reasonable mid depth to a list which is lacking. Sensible SSP selection.

Kelly is a peaheart, Harley is 5yrs old and Yeos body is broken. Need someone to fetch the footy for us. Graham better help in this space, but Carroll also could.

 

[Ruben Grubarb]

Only one of those was a top 5 pick

The point was that it's your core of elite players who determine how well you do. There's people on here saying, "we need midfielders! Well, Hutch can go into mid, Hall will develop, etc". It's not a quantity thing. You have to keep searching until you find some of those rare elite players.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Successful list management appears to be focused on nailing the later picks rather than the Top 10

Ah cool we'll be right then.

 

[Ruben Grubarb]

Who are Geelongs A+ players? Who were Collingwoods A+ players last year?

Cameron, Hawkins, Danger, Stewart.
Daicos, Pendles, Sidebottom, Moore, De Goey

I get your point. These are 2 teams who have least displayed the "lopsided top tier core". It's questionable whether all those players I named were A+ at the time. West Coast in 2018 were also not like this. But just because you find exceptions, it doesn't mean going against the grain is the best percentage play.

If you don't find a core of absolute elite players, you're more likely going to end up Bombers or Saints than Geelong or Pies.

 

[Off Tap]

Cam’s latest rankings. Very interesting indeed.

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' October ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fourth Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

01: LEVI ASHCROFT.
02: FINN O'SULLIVAN.
03: HARVEY LANGFORD.
04: SAM LALOR.
05: JAGGA SMITH.
06: MURPHY REID.
07: SID DRAPER.
08: JOSH SMILLIE.
09: ALIX TAURU.
10: HARRY ARMSTRONG.
11: TOBIE TRAVAGLIA.
12: BO ALLAN.
13: LEONARDO LOMBARD.
14: ISAAC KAKO.
15: TAJ HOTTON.
16: XAVIER LINDSAY.
17: LUKE TRAINOR.
18: JOE BERRY.
19: JACK WHITLOCK.
20: JOBE SHANAHAN.
21: COOPER HYNES.
22: SAM MARSHALL.
23: MATT WHITLOCK.
24: JESSE DATTOLI.
25: JONTY FAULL.
26: HARRISON OLIVER.
27: TOM GROSS.
28: OLLIE HANNAFORD.
29: ALEX DODSON.
30: CHRISTIAN MORAES.

We won’t pick Hotton so going off that looks like Lindsay and Moraes.

Knowing that we were trading out Barrass and having pick 3, if you told me we would draft only Lindsay and Moraes, I would've called you insane.

 

[Wooshaaaa]

Cam’s latest rankings. Very interesting indeed.

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' October ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fourth Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

01: LEVI ASHCROFT.
02: FINN O'SULLIVAN.
03: HARVEY LANGFORD.
04: SAM LALOR.
05: JAGGA SMITH.
06: MURPHY REID.
07: SID DRAPER.
08: JOSH SMILLIE.
09: ALIX TAURU.
10: HARRY ARMSTRONG.
11: TOBIE TRAVAGLIA.
12: BO ALLAN.
13: LEONARDO LOMBARD.
14: ISAAC KAKO.
15: TAJ HOTTON.
16: XAVIER LINDSAY.
17: LUKE TRAINOR.
18: JOE BERRY.
19: JACK WHITLOCK.
20: JOBE SHANAHAN.
21: COOPER HYNES.
22: SAM MARSHALL.
23: MATT WHITLOCK.
24: JESSE DATTOLI.
25: JONTY FAULL.
26: HARRISON OLIVER.
27: TOM GROSS.
28: OLLIE HANNAFORD.
29: ALEX DODSON.
30: CHRISTIAN MORAES.

We won’t pick Hotton so going off that looks like Lindsay and Moraes.

Interesting crows don't take Draper.! If he has heard theyre not that into him, would we trade F1 for pick 4 and F3? I think in 4 yrs from now FOS and draper will be the 2 in this draft that will be flying.

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[Ruben Grubarb]

Not 1-5. Just #5
Gaff, Cerra, Cunnington, Billings.
2nd or 3rd midfielders. Good players but no superstars.

Trac did his acl before even playing a game & so that slowed him down but essentially was in the top 10 best performed junior players ever (in modern football) along with Dacios.

And of course we know what a player can do at 18. Some are fast, some slow, some can kick others can't. Some can mark it and some are better around stoppages.

The closest players to that powerful burst mid who can be dangerous up forward (like Petracca , Dangerfield or Martin) have been #1 2023 Harley Reid, #6 2022 Bailey Humphrey & #1 2021 JHF.
Even then they were all still probably 10% off where the aforementioned stars were at the same point.

I liken this gap to being a runner- how hard is it to improve your 2km time trial by 50 seconds That's the ground that has to be made up just to get to the starting blocks of these guys- who have now been pushing their own PB further away.


Langford as he's simply the best player this year. Other things may hold him back at AFL level but there's question marks over everything.

Jagga Smith may be the safest pick as a Gaff type operator. Doesn't really dominate at any facet but will get a heap of the ball. Death by 1000 cuts.

No one is performing to the level of an "A Grader". And no one is likely to make that jump.
What tends to happen is in 5 years you may find out that player x was living with toxic mould and could only breathe at 80% capacity, or afflicted with some random drawback the whole time. Implications being if they were fitter and stronger they would have performed to their true level.

-Smillie as he is slow and relies too much on his size.

-FOS who simply doesn't have the runs on the board. Has only averaged 17 disposals this year as a mid and it's not like he was dominant over the rest of the field last year. Perhaps, though not deficient, as an outside leaning player he relies too much on others to feed him.


If everyone is guessing then how do you have a top 10 that isn't wildly different from the next person?

This is wild. Here's the difference between you and me:

You: I know which players are going to make it, which aren't, which players are better than which, are how strong the draft will end up compared to other years.

Me: I don't have a crystal ball. I don't which players will go on with it. All I know if that historically the best players in the AFL usually go in the top 5. I also know, those players that go a lot later in the draft who end up elite, are hard to pick. No clubs seem to have any awareness before the draft. No one is picking a Lachie Neale at 58 and going, "Ha ha, got him. This guy's going to be one of the best players in the comp!".


No one really knows mate. It's a guess. The reason why all the phantom drafts are similar is because there is a correlation between u18 ability and likelihood of AFL success. It' based on "most likely". But no one actually knows, everyone is taking educated guesses. The only thing we really know is the chance of success increases exponentially the higher up the draft board you have your picks.

 

[Ruben Grubarb]

Okay let's have a look at the data:

List analysis: Which club has the most All-Australians, top-10 picks?

Which club has the most All-Australians, and which has the most top-10 picks?

www.afl.com.au

Successful list management appears to be focused on nailing the later picks rather than the Top 10.

We all know that's not true. Pick who you think are the top 50 players in the AFL and plot where they were taking in the draft. Pay more attention to newer players - they seem to be getting better at nailing the draft these days.

When you have aa top 5 pick, realistically, there's only 2-3 players to choose from. Making the odds on choosing correctly, higher. When you're in the boondocks of R2 and R3, you might have 10 players to choose from. And they're not as good. Much harder to guess well.

Do you think North and GC aren't coming? I don't know if they can win a flag, but they're coming.

 

[Obeanie1]

Very different players. Gaff, pre-draft, was busy collecting disposals in the back pocket and thrived in open space. Smith gets his disposals at the coalface and has excellent manoeuvrability in traffic, something Gaff has never possessed.

The comment was about being a safe pick. And being a high accumulator.

Gaff had question marks over his pace.

Jagga has them about can his game tranistion to AFL at his size. And that he isnt a damaging kick. Just gets lots of it.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Okay let's have a look at the data:

View attachment 2149950

List analysis: Which club has the most All-Australians, top-10 picks?

Which club has the most All-Australians, and which has the most top-10 picks?

www.afl.com.au

Successful list management appears to be focused on nailing the later picks rather than the Top 10.

The data isn't fully accurate. Brisbane for example have Lachie Neale, who they traded a top 10 pick for. Therefore should be counted as one. Sydney have Heeney who was a top 3 pick but they got at 18 due to the academy rules. I'm sure there are plenty of other examples.

 

[eaglevision]

Knowing that we were trading out Barrass and having pick 3, if you told me we would draft only Lindsay and Moraes, I would've called you insane.

Just another reflection of the genius of Matthew Clarke. FOS would have added the class to Harley and Jagga or Draper would have been perfect fits, particularly with this “forward half game”

Interesting crows don't take Draper.! If he has heard theyre not that into him, would we trade F1 for pick 4 and F3? I think in 4 yrs from now FOS and draper will be the 2 in this draft that will be flying.

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I still keep hearing they aren’t as big on him as most think but there’s no way Crows delay a mid by a year. Don’t even think they’d take Richmond’s F1 for pick 4, even with Sharp awaiting next year. In 10 years I’m confident we’ll all be saying FOS was the best player in this draft but Draper is the surest thing to make it as an AFL player.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Interesting crows don't take Draper.! If he has heard theyre not that into him, would we trade F1 for pick 4 and F3? I think in 4 yrs from now FOS and draper will be the 2 in this draft that will be flying.

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

It would be F1 plus F2 for pick 4

Future picks generally traded at a pretty big discount to cover the risk of a team doing a “Hawthorn”, no matter how unlikely it may seem

Probably takes our F1 and Hawks F1 to have any chance of getting a top 6 pick TBH

 

[We_The_West]

We all know that's not true. Pick who you think are the top 50 players in the AFL and plot where they were taking in the draft. Pay more attention to newer players - they seem to be getting better at nailing the draft these days.

When you have aa top 5 pick, realistically, there's only 2-3 players to choose from. Making the odds on choosing correctly, higher. When you're in the boondocks of R2 and R3, you might have 10 players to choose from. And they're not as good. Much harder to guess well.

Do you think North and GC aren't coming? I don't know if they can win a flag, but they're coming.

Looking at the data and the article below (yes, I'm aware it's from 3 years ago but still relevant analysis) it explains how there is only really a 20% chance that a top 10 pick turn into an All Australian.

How often do top 10 picks turn into All-Australian calibre players?

We've crunched the numbers, looking at 2005 to 2015.

www.sen.com.au

You want a champion team, not a team of champions. I'm not as phased with our lack of top 5 picks but what concerns me is that we used to hit the nail on the head with later and rookie picks (Waterman, McGovern) but we haven't unearthed too many gems in a while.

Tyrell Dewar is my bet for our next rookie star

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I’m confident we’ll all be saying FOS was the best player in this draft but Draper is the surest thing to make it as an AFL player.

And we lost access to both to get…Baker

 

[JoshWoodenSpoon]

Gunston and boondocks.

 

[We_The_West]

Happy Mastenator You could argue that 1st Rd picks are better saved to trade for established stars with a known value, rather than taking a risky punt on an 18 yr old who's still sipping their mother's milk

 

[pantskyle]

**** it, why not.
I don’t miss being 17 and not having a driveable car and catching two trains and two buses to write those up.

Highlight was being called a Freo spy once.

Mistaken for ep2018 ?

 

[squashface]

Cam’s latest rankings. Very interesting indeed.

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' October ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fourth Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

01: LEVI ASHCROFT.
02: FINN O'SULLIVAN.
03: HARVEY LANGFORD.
04: SAM LALOR.
05: JAGGA SMITH.
06: MURPHY REID.
07: SID DRAPER.
08: JOSH SMILLIE.
09: ALIX TAURU.
10: HARRY ARMSTRONG.
11: TOBIE TRAVAGLIA.
12: BO ALLAN.
13: LEONARDO LOMBARD.
14: ISAAC KAKO.
15: TAJ HOTTON.
16: XAVIER LINDSAY.
17: LUKE TRAINOR.
18: JOE BERRY.
19: JACK WHITLOCK.
20: JOBE SHANAHAN.
21: COOPER HYNES.
22: SAM MARSHALL.
23: MATT WHITLOCK.
24: JESSE DATTOLI.
25: JONTY FAULL.
26: HARRISON OLIVER.
27: TOM GROSS.
28: OLLIE HANNAFORD.
29: ALEX DODSON.
30: CHRISTIAN MORAES.

We won’t pick Hotton so going off that looks like Lindsay and Moraes.

Incredibly depressing reading

 

[eaglevision]

And we lost access to both to get…Baker

I’ve made my thoughts on Clarke and his decision making pretty clear. Our first choice midfield is 19yo Harley, an outside 30 year old trying to play inside and a 31 year old with a significant recent injury history all roving to a terrible ruckman.

Why would you want an elite extractor with the best footy IQ in the draft or an absolute pro who gets to every contest?

Next year we’re likely to trade or 1R and F1 for Warner and the year after those the Tassie draft compromise starts so where do the elite premiership mids come from?

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Happy Mastenator You could argue that 1st Rd picks are better saved to trade for established stars with a known value, rather than taking a risky punt on an 18 yr old who's still sipping their mother's milk

Agreed. For the right star.

I had issues with what we gave up for Kelly at the time, but I'm happy to give up a top 5 pick for Warner due to his age and extended performance.

 

[Cuzz09]

My thoughts:

We've missed our chance at a top 5 or so pick so keep what we've got and don't overpay and try and weasel back in now.



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