List Mgmt. Contracts, trades, draft - 2022 superstar edition

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I don't believe we have a pick there. I assume next year we will have another top 5-ish pick. Cutting it fine considering we probably need a gun KPF as well.

Also, there will be that player between 5 and 15. Probably just one though. How do you know which one? The answer is we don't and nor do the clubs. That's why that top 3 pick is so important - you have much better odds of guessing correctly.
So the Top 3 pick is so important but Bont (pick 4) and Oliver (pick 4) fall outside your stated odds. Are they anomalies or does your standard deviation or bell curve factor them in or were they just guesses outside the norm? Would you still take Brett Delidio over Buddy in 2004, Mark Murphy over Josh Kennedy (WCE), Bryce Gibbs over Jack Reiwoldt etc etc. I understand that hindsight is a wonderful thing but I also believe that some recruiters are better than others at identifying talent even if it is later in the draft. I don't believe West Coast current recruiting staff have that capability even with a Top 3 pick. I'd welcome them splitting our 1st pick if it meant getting Hewitt and someone like Vic Metro's McKenzie.
 

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So the Top 3 pick is so important but Bont (pick 4) and Oliver (pick 4) fall outside your stated odds. Are they anomalies or does your standard deviation or bell curve factor them in or were they just guesses outside the norm? Would you still take Brett Delidio over Buddy in 2004, Mark Murphy over Josh Kennedy (WCE), Bryce Gibbs over Jack Reiwoldt etc etc. I understand that hindsight is a wonderful thing but I also believe that some recruiters are better than others at identifying talent even if it is later in the draft. I don't believe West Coast current recruiting staff have that capability even with a Top 3 pick. I'd welcome them splitting our 1st pick if it meant getting Hewitt and someone like Vic Metro's McKenzie.
I used top 3 for no other reason than we will probably have pick 3. To win a flag you need those top end players. It's very hard to do it without. These players typically come at the pointy end of the draft. So when you have top 3 or top 5 pick and want to spend it on KPD, you sort have to consider where you're then going to get the top end mid and KPF. We should have another top 5 pick next year, but you're still cutting your chances in half. The further back in the draft you go, the harder it is to guess the right player.

As for recruiters, I'd like to see the track records of some of the guns and who they are choosing where.

As for our recruiters, I'm not as negative as most others. We just haven't had a top 10 pick for 10 years. Brander was dumb. We also seem to be doing the "we don't have a pick high enough to get a starting mid ( in u18 champs) so we'll go a mid who is playing flank because he's good enough to be a starting mid". A lot of the second and third rounders haven't worked. You'd expect to uncover a gem or two and I don't think we have.

But, happy for you to provide the track record of some gun recruiters who can beat the index. I'm particularly interested in the ones who can consistently pick the correct KPFs, because the correlation between gun at 18 and gun at 22 often isn't there.
 
So the Top 3 pick is so important but Bont (pick 4) and Oliver (pick 4) fall outside your stated odds. Are they anomalies or does your standard deviation or bell curve factor them in or were they just guesses outside the norm? Would you still take Brett Delidio over Buddy in 2004, Mark Murphy over Josh Kennedy (WCE), Bryce Gibbs over Jack Reiwoldt etc etc. I understand that hindsight is a wonderful thing but I also believe that some recruiters are better than others at identifying talent even if it is later in the draft. I don't believe West Coast current recruiting staff have that capability even with a Top 3 pick. I'd welcome them splitting our 1st pick if it meant getting Hewitt and someone like Vic Metro's McKenzie.


I do love Boyd, Watts, and Shache. Too early for JUH?
 
This draft not sure that level of quality is there. It is a difficult draft to follow with all the covid breaks etc over the past two years. We are seeing u18 championships at least and there is more football being played.

You are assuming that at pick 3 (Ashcroft to Lions assumed top 2) we will on average get access to at A+ elite mid. My view is the mid we aremore than happy to draft will be there at pick 5.

And if he isnt Busslinger looks like a really nice pick up at 5. Or Hewett or Clark or Tsatis.
I'm also sceptical about the strength and depth of this draft. And there's not really any KPFs at this stage.

If we decided on Hewitt and knew we could get him at 5, I'm okay with it. But the scenario is unlikely as too many moving parts have to coincide. Trading out for a Robertson or Bruhn and pick 10-15 is not an option IMO and I'm pretty confident the club won't go down that route.
 
Exact same feeling I got. Even though I'm pretty sure he has said this season will be his last, I think he'll go one more. He's still going at 2 goals per game. I wouldn't be surprised if Hurn goes another too.
Your feelings are not what’s important powder puff!
Kennedy has already said he’s not playing on next year that means he’s not playing on next year.
Are you dumb or something?
 
And they have better information about 20 to 23 year olds which is completely different to 17 and 18 year olds who for many are still growing during the 2 years run up to the draft
Not to mention afl and nfl are apples and oranges when it comes to talent identification.

Measurables and athletic traits are absolutely indicative of how nfl prospects will pan out. Or at the very least indicative of which players are not worth high end picks.
 
As I understand it he’s not actually being played in the guts? He just smashed the under 18’s championship playing against his peers. For me I’d rather see him play seniors all year and us take him. He’ll learn a lot more against men than racking up meaningless touches at colts level.
Yep it's no cakewalk getting 15 possies off a half forward flank. Let alone in your first few senior WAFL games against blokes a lot older. And when you've also just had covid
 

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Hewitt really impressed for WA yesterday and i think possibly brought himself into or closer to that top bracket.
So if thats the case would it make more or less sense to split the picks? If the talent is fairly even I'd rather go a west aussie boy but if we split we may miss him if he's rated highly by other clubs.
I'd really like hagan too with one of our second rounders

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Hewitt really impressed for WA yesterday and i think possibly brought himself into or closer to that top bracket.
So if thats the case would it make more or less sense to split the picks? If the talent is fairly even I'd rather go a west aussie boy but if we split we may miss him if he's rated highly by other clubs.
I'd really like hagan too with one of our second rounders

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Hewett probably moved into the top 5 or 6 on that game. Out performed Sheezel and shaded Ashcroft. Looks like we can’t lose with pick 2. If Wardlaw is taken then Hewett will be available or vice versa, or perhaps both are available and we have a difficult choice. Busslinger looks like a very good player but is absolutely not in a position of most need for us.
 
Hewitt really impressed for WA yesterday and i think possibly brought himself into or closer to that top bracket.
So if thats the case would it make more or less sense to split the picks? If the talent is fairly even I'd rather go a west aussie boy but if we split we may miss him if he's rated highly by other clubs.
I'd really like hagan too with one of our second rounders

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Hewitt is in my top 3 and almost a certainty to be taken by WCE , the captain`s goal from the boundary was outstanding ..
 
Hewett probably moved into the top 5 or 6 on that game. Out performed Sheezel and shaded Ashcroft. Looks like we can’t lose with pick 2. If Wardlaw is taken then Hewett will be available or vice versa, or perhaps both are available and we have a difficult choice. Busslinger looks like a very good player but is absolutely not in a position of most need for us.
There's also Jefferson in the mix now too which helps us. North have plenty of midfielders and have a need for a KPF. A few more goals in the champs and North may take him.
 
Hewitt really impressed for WA yesterday and i think possibly brought himself into or closer to that top bracket.
So if thats the case would it make more or less sense to split the picks? If the talent is fairly even I'd rather go a west aussie boy but if we split we may miss him if he's rated highly by other clubs.
I'd really like hagan too with one of our second rounders

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Now if we're discussing second and third round picks from WA.

Hagan really 2 problems. He's mainly dominated against colts as an early developer. Two he is small. You can't attack his professionalism, attack on the ball, on the man or similar but 175cm as a primary mid these days is starting to get bit small as a mid. Can he play primarily as a pressure forward? Maybe. But I wouldn't draft him on that. I don't think his kicking has the penetration to be a lock down defender and he is even getting small for one of those even if he is very classy at it. Always gives it his all. Hagan's real problem is how recruiters see his height and how can he fashion his abilities into a role at AFL level because over the last couple of years he's been the most consistent WA player.

If he was there at our 3rd rounder i'd consider him depending who is on the board. I'd much rather Reuben Ginbey. Can WA please play him as a defender for a few games. Guy is a wrecking ball with amazing leadership and would probably try and tackle a truck if it had a ball caught in it's bull bar. Or if we're going to reach for a WA player I see a lot more upside in Jack Cleaver even though I don't think he plays mid at AFL level. (lock down mid sized defender, again great one on one, a great mark)

Now if Condon was to come out next year or the even 2 years after basketball and give footy a second chance I'd snap him up in a heartbeat. If he had chosen football it's likely he would have gone top 5 at worst top 10 this year. He's the ruck we needed but he chose basketball. If however he steps up next year in the NBL or in College in the US it's all over as he will be a basketball player and likely to get drafted. If he doesn't get NBA drafted we're in with a shot in a couple of years time. Another couple of years of basketball and could sign him as a Cat B player.
 
There's also Jefferson in the mix now too which helps us. North have plenty of midfielders and have a need for a KPF. A few more goals in the champs and North may take him.

Jefferson beat up a piss weak defence from WA with Busslnger required to play more as a rebounder or WA would have got destroyed. Jefferson in reality is maybe knocking in the top 15 with a couple more good games but I don't see him going any higher than that. We'll see how he goes against Vic Country later in the year.
 
Jefferson beat up a piss weak defence from WA with Busslnger required to play more as a rebounder or WA would have got destroyed. Jefferson in reality is maybe knocking in the top 15 with a couple more good games but I don't see him going any higher than that. We'll see how he goes against Vic Country later in the year.
North will take him then.

Who is the top KPF prospect this year? Once it gets to pick 7 and 8ish there's going to be a team that wants a KPF. Who are the options besides Lemmy and Scully?
 
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