FACEOFF – Round 10 – Carlton Blues vs. Mighty Adelaide Crows, MCG
VS
Crows 4-4 WWLBW
Blues 3-5 WWLWB
It’s quite difficult to be objective coming into the game this week after what happened last Thursday, so take what I say with a pinch of salt – I may be a little over excited!
There is a decent history between these two clubs, particularly those matches played in Melbourne. There are certainly a couple of highs and lows. One of those that really sticks in my mind was Round 22, 2009 at Etihad.
Burton takes a “solid” mark, while sitting on Tippet’s head. I think he’s still stuck in orbit.
That game was incredibly high scoring. Looking back on it, it’s hard not to get nostalgic - Knights, Porplyzia and Tippet each kicked 4 goals, and Bernie kicked 3 in a BOG performance. We ended up winning 27.14 (176) to 16.8 (104), a massive 11 goal thrashing in a 43 goal game.
Round 5, 2013, MCG
Of course, we all know what happened in this game last year. After the highs of 2012 we all expected big things in 2013. The Crows started the year in shaky fashion, and I remember going to watch the game at the MCG, hoping for a steadying win. Carlton themselves went into the game after a difficult start to the year, and from memory the bookies considered the odds pretty even. Seeing big Tex hobble off the ground in the arms of the medical staff was probably the lowest point of the season for me, and the game turned out to be a season defining loss.
I considered not putting this picture in, but that mullet is just too glorious.
2014
Back to the present, and we’ve got a real blockbuster game on our hands here. Both Carlton and Adelaide share the dubious honour of being the only sides to lose to Melbourne in 2014 [EDIT: Damn Richmond, I thought that was a good starter…]. If you’ve just come out from under a rock (but somehow understand that Melbourne are a rabble) that should give you an indication of just how bad the start for both these clubs has been.
Having said that, both Carlton and the Crows have been (roughly) on the right track since both starting 0-3. Both clubs won their last match, although Carlton are coming off the bye, so their win was 2 weeks ago in a plucky showing against the Saints. Not much needs to be said about the Crows last win, but if beating Collingwood is our Dr Jekyll, then losing to Melbourne was definitely our Mr Hyde (come to think of it, after our ferocity and physicality against Collingwood, perhaps that metaphor should be the other way around…).
I think there’s something in the water at Carlton…
For Eddie Betts, this week will also be his first game against his old club. Hopefully he can have a few words in the ear of his old mate Bryce, and espouse the virtues of his new home…
The Teams:
ADELAIDE CROWS
B Kyle Hartigan, Ben Rutten, Luke Brown
HB Brodie Smith, Daniel Talia, Matthew Jaensch
C Rory Sloane,Scott Thompson, David Mackay
HF Sam Kerridge, Josh Jenkins, Charlie Cameron
F James Podsiadly, Taylor Walker, Eddie Betts
FOL Sam Jacobs, Patrick Dangerfield, Richard Douglas
I/C Brodie Martin, Rory Laird, Matthew Wright
SUB Matt Crouch
I’m guessing no changes for the Crows
CARLTON
B Sam Rowe, Michael Jamison, Simon White
HB Dennis Armfield, Andrew Walker, Zach Tuohy
C Andrejs Everitt, Kade Simpson, Sam Docherty
HF Mitch Robinson, Levi Casboult, Marc Murphy
F David Ellard, Lachie Henderson, Chris Yarran
FOL Robert Warnock, Bryce Gibbs, Dale Thomas
I/C Troy Menzel, Dylan Buckley, Brock McLean
SUB Jeff Garlett
Carlton’s winning side from round 8. Waite, Judd and Carrazzo may be available, all of whom are automatic inclusions if fit.
Our Forward line vs Carlton’s defence
The Crows forward line looks great on paper, but we do seem to really have to work hard to generate scoring shots. Carlton’s defence may well benefit if Waite comes back into the side, which may release Henderson into their backline. That said, defence is Carlton’s weakest area of the ground, and our trio of talls could cause some real havoc if our midfield is quick enough to isolate them 1-on-1. Jenkins is in a good patch of form, Podsiadly provides a great contest and now seems to have remembered how to take a mark, and Tex could do anything.
This will be a good test for Betts and Cameron, who will be critical in limiting Carlton’s run from half back.
The battle of the midfields
As always, the game will be won in the midfield. The Blues have some class here – clearances is one of the few areas they have a positive differential in. Simpson and Gibbs have been in pretty decent form this year, and have been drivers in Carlton’s wins. If Judd and Carrazzo come back in Carlton will be almost back to full strength in the middle (missing Kruezer).
Despite their big name players, I’m not sold on Carlton’s midfield. They never seem to quite produce the results you might expect. Daisy Thomas has probably not met what they hoped he would produce, and you wouldn’t expect Judd and Carrazzo to really dominate their first games back from injury.
In previous years Carrazzo has been their go-to tagger and is able to hurt teams the other way, so it will be interesting to see if Carlton does tag Dangerfield. Danger seems to be dealing with tags more easily in recent matches (most notably against McCaffer, who’s claimed a few big scalps this year), so Carlton will need to get on top of Danger if they want to come out on top in the midfield.
Overall I think we should win this battle. I would expect Jacobs to continue putting the ball where we want it, and I think going in unchanged will be to our advantage.
Our defence vs. Carlton’s forward line
This is where the question marks come up for me. If we do go in unchanged, as I expect we will, then we will have 3 tall defenders (Truck, Tails and Kartigan), to match up on Waite (if he comes back), maybe Henderson, and then to cover one resting tall. I think there’s a significant risk of us being too tall and slow in the backline.
Brown is coming off a good game on Elliott, but he doesn’t have the speed to cover Yarran. Jaensch might be able to keep up with Yarran, but despite his huge defensive improvements, I wouldn’t be confident with that match up either.
I don’t think we match up that well against Carlton’s forward line, and I think this is a bit of a liability. It may not matter that much if our midfield dominates, but we’re wide open to speedy counter attacks off half back.
Our mercuriality
The final big question is which Crows side will turn up. Was last Thursday’s match the start of something good for the Crows? Or was that just a short term reaction from a team smarting from a poor loss? Things will look pretty dire if we go back to playing like we did for the first 7 rounds of the competition, and if we do Carlton could well capitalise on our defensive mismatches with quick transitions off half back. On the other hand, if we can produce anything like the effort we brought against Collingwood, we should win comfortably.
The Verdict
I think we’re on a bit of a high ebb at the moment, coming off a great win against our bogey side Collingwood, and with the return Tex, of our spiritual leader. It may be blind optimism, but I think we’ll continue the form and effort we saw against Collingwood this week.
Crows by 24 points.
Crows 4-4 WWLBW
Blues 3-5 WWLWB
It’s quite difficult to be objective coming into the game this week after what happened last Thursday, so take what I say with a pinch of salt – I may be a little over excited!
There is a decent history between these two clubs, particularly those matches played in Melbourne. There are certainly a couple of highs and lows. One of those that really sticks in my mind was Round 22, 2009 at Etihad.
Burton takes a “solid” mark, while sitting on Tippet’s head. I think he’s still stuck in orbit.
That game was incredibly high scoring. Looking back on it, it’s hard not to get nostalgic - Knights, Porplyzia and Tippet each kicked 4 goals, and Bernie kicked 3 in a BOG performance. We ended up winning 27.14 (176) to 16.8 (104), a massive 11 goal thrashing in a 43 goal game.
Round 5, 2013, MCG
Of course, we all know what happened in this game last year. After the highs of 2012 we all expected big things in 2013. The Crows started the year in shaky fashion, and I remember going to watch the game at the MCG, hoping for a steadying win. Carlton themselves went into the game after a difficult start to the year, and from memory the bookies considered the odds pretty even. Seeing big Tex hobble off the ground in the arms of the medical staff was probably the lowest point of the season for me, and the game turned out to be a season defining loss.
I considered not putting this picture in, but that mullet is just too glorious.
2014
Back to the present, and we’ve got a real blockbuster game on our hands here. Both Carlton and Adelaide share the dubious honour of being the only sides to lose to Melbourne in 2014 [EDIT: Damn Richmond, I thought that was a good starter…]. If you’ve just come out from under a rock (but somehow understand that Melbourne are a rabble) that should give you an indication of just how bad the start for both these clubs has been.
Having said that, both Carlton and the Crows have been (roughly) on the right track since both starting 0-3. Both clubs won their last match, although Carlton are coming off the bye, so their win was 2 weeks ago in a plucky showing against the Saints. Not much needs to be said about the Crows last win, but if beating Collingwood is our Dr Jekyll, then losing to Melbourne was definitely our Mr Hyde (come to think of it, after our ferocity and physicality against Collingwood, perhaps that metaphor should be the other way around…).
I think there’s something in the water at Carlton…
For Eddie Betts, this week will also be his first game against his old club. Hopefully he can have a few words in the ear of his old mate Bryce, and espouse the virtues of his new home…
The Teams:
ADELAIDE CROWS
B Kyle Hartigan, Ben Rutten, Luke Brown
HB Brodie Smith, Daniel Talia, Matthew Jaensch
C Rory Sloane,Scott Thompson, David Mackay
HF Sam Kerridge, Josh Jenkins, Charlie Cameron
F James Podsiadly, Taylor Walker, Eddie Betts
FOL Sam Jacobs, Patrick Dangerfield, Richard Douglas
I/C Brodie Martin, Rory Laird, Matthew Wright
SUB Matt Crouch
I’m guessing no changes for the Crows
CARLTON
B Sam Rowe, Michael Jamison, Simon White
HB Dennis Armfield, Andrew Walker, Zach Tuohy
C Andrejs Everitt, Kade Simpson, Sam Docherty
HF Mitch Robinson, Levi Casboult, Marc Murphy
F David Ellard, Lachie Henderson, Chris Yarran
FOL Robert Warnock, Bryce Gibbs, Dale Thomas
I/C Troy Menzel, Dylan Buckley, Brock McLean
SUB Jeff Garlett
Carlton’s winning side from round 8. Waite, Judd and Carrazzo may be available, all of whom are automatic inclusions if fit.
Our Forward line vs Carlton’s defence
The Crows forward line looks great on paper, but we do seem to really have to work hard to generate scoring shots. Carlton’s defence may well benefit if Waite comes back into the side, which may release Henderson into their backline. That said, defence is Carlton’s weakest area of the ground, and our trio of talls could cause some real havoc if our midfield is quick enough to isolate them 1-on-1. Jenkins is in a good patch of form, Podsiadly provides a great contest and now seems to have remembered how to take a mark, and Tex could do anything.
This will be a good test for Betts and Cameron, who will be critical in limiting Carlton’s run from half back.
The battle of the midfields
As always, the game will be won in the midfield. The Blues have some class here – clearances is one of the few areas they have a positive differential in. Simpson and Gibbs have been in pretty decent form this year, and have been drivers in Carlton’s wins. If Judd and Carrazzo come back in Carlton will be almost back to full strength in the middle (missing Kruezer).
Despite their big name players, I’m not sold on Carlton’s midfield. They never seem to quite produce the results you might expect. Daisy Thomas has probably not met what they hoped he would produce, and you wouldn’t expect Judd and Carrazzo to really dominate their first games back from injury.
In previous years Carrazzo has been their go-to tagger and is able to hurt teams the other way, so it will be interesting to see if Carlton does tag Dangerfield. Danger seems to be dealing with tags more easily in recent matches (most notably against McCaffer, who’s claimed a few big scalps this year), so Carlton will need to get on top of Danger if they want to come out on top in the midfield.
Overall I think we should win this battle. I would expect Jacobs to continue putting the ball where we want it, and I think going in unchanged will be to our advantage.
Our defence vs. Carlton’s forward line
This is where the question marks come up for me. If we do go in unchanged, as I expect we will, then we will have 3 tall defenders (Truck, Tails and Kartigan), to match up on Waite (if he comes back), maybe Henderson, and then to cover one resting tall. I think there’s a significant risk of us being too tall and slow in the backline.
Brown is coming off a good game on Elliott, but he doesn’t have the speed to cover Yarran. Jaensch might be able to keep up with Yarran, but despite his huge defensive improvements, I wouldn’t be confident with that match up either.
I don’t think we match up that well against Carlton’s forward line, and I think this is a bit of a liability. It may not matter that much if our midfield dominates, but we’re wide open to speedy counter attacks off half back.
Our mercuriality
The final big question is which Crows side will turn up. Was last Thursday’s match the start of something good for the Crows? Or was that just a short term reaction from a team smarting from a poor loss? Things will look pretty dire if we go back to playing like we did for the first 7 rounds of the competition, and if we do Carlton could well capitalise on our defensive mismatches with quick transitions off half back. On the other hand, if we can produce anything like the effort we brought against Collingwood, we should win comfortably.
The Verdict
I think we’re on a bit of a high ebb at the moment, coming off a great win against our bogey side Collingwood, and with the return Tex, of our spiritual leader. It may be blind optimism, but I think we’ll continue the form and effort we saw against Collingwood this week.
Crows by 24 points.
