FaceOff: Round 12: Adelaide Vs Hawthorn

[James23]

hawthorn is a good bet IMO

 

[Brownie_30]

We have to go with Bock against Franklin, AA CHB against AA CHF.

Franklin's only weakness, apart from occasional inaccuracy, is that he rarely goes the other way. A rebounding Bock can hurt them as long as we use the ball well and don't turn it over.

Sorry to intrude on your board, but that is the one thing that Franklin has done really well this year. He lays more tackle than Brown, Fevola, Pavlich and Riewoldt. Franklin's defensive pressure layed on two goals on satuday night. Roughead isn't bad defensively either (Franklin averages 2.4 Tackles per game Roughead 1.9, Jonathon Brown is 0.9, Pav 1.4, Fev 1.8 and Riewoldt is 0.6 to give a comparison). He has a tendancy to be over eager when defending and give away free kicks but that stops your momentum rebounding in any event.

The one you can exploit is Boyle, if I were the Crows I'd play Bock on him and tell him to run, the hawks will try and keep boyle away from Franklin and Roughead. Personally I'd have Stevens on Franklin, if you keep the other 5 forwards quiet - which imo your backline can easily do - Franklin cant win it on his own. When teams triple team franklin they lose.

Anyway good luck, I'm not that confident this weekend.

 

[Roughie]

Likely Hawthorn Team:

B: Ellis, Gilham, Brown
HB: Birchall, Croad, Ladson
C: Bateman, Mitchell, Young
HF: Osborne, Franklin, Williams
FF: Rioli, Roughead, Boyle
C: Taylor, Hodge, Lewis

INT: Clarke, Renouf, Morton, Kennedy

Possible Changes:

Hawthorn comes in with numerous injury concerns. Already suffering from a depleted list, the Hawks have question marks over Chance Bateman, and the ruck duo of Simon Taylor and Robert Campbell. The ruck concern left Brent Renouf forcefully pulled out of Box Hill Queens Birthday Clash in the risk of injuring himself. It is likely that one of the duo will miss whether its Simon Taylor with a serious gash across the knee that left him in hospital overnight, or Robert Campbell’s AC Joint concern. Bateman suffered what looked to be a severe cork to the leg late in the 4th Quarter against Essendon.

The only change I can see is Renouf in and most likely Robert Campbell out.


The Backline:

The Hawthorn defence has a tough job coming against the Adelaide forward line. I would think Clarkson and co. would be thanking their lucky stars that the inform Brett Burton is out. The match ups would most likely see Brown now going to the dangerous Simon Goodwin, with Croad going on big Tippet, and Gilham matching up against the strong marking Porplyzia. In the past Adelaide have seemed to target Stephen Gilham in their attack, especially in the Elimination final last season. Gilham is the weak link in the backline, and will most likely be exploited by pace on Porplyzia but it seems as a likely match up.

Hawthorns defence thrives on slowing the ball down and getting numbers behind play, the team will need it against the hard leading Crows as their midfield has the ability to put it down their forwards throats at all opportunities.



In The Midfield

Hawthorn will breathe a bit easier with the return of Hodge, as the crows big bodied engine room tends to out muscle our midfield. Missing Sewell will hurt as he is just effective when playing an attacking role as with a negating role. Lewis will have to play a Port Adelaide like game to really support Hodge and Mitchell in their endeavours to reign supreme in the clearance department.

Hawthorn is one of the best scoring off clearance teams in the league, and I suspect the crows will look to slow down this department. We could see the centre get messy and I do not expect many clean centre breaks.

With the likely hood that atleast one of our starting duo will miss, Renouf will most likely come into what I believe as the best young ruck duo on the league in Maric and potentially Griffin. These boys play well above their age, and are not to be sneezed at. Clarkson will hope that one of the rucks can get up for the match and hopefully out body the young crows duo.

Scott Thompson is someone the hawks would have looked to tag with Brad Sewell, but with Sewell out expect hawthorn to come out with an attacking midfield in Hodge, Lewis and Mitchell. I do not expect any defensive roles played in the midfield, all head to head action. Clarkson will most likely let the midfield ‘duke it out’ and evaluate match ups from there. Thompson has the ability to go forward and hurt Hawthorn, and defensive depth is some where we really struggle. The bulldogs made hawthorn look 2nd rate because of their ability to utilize multiple options and attack the slower Stephen Gilham, look for Neil Craig to really exploit this facet of the hawks game.

I am looking forward to seeing Chance Bateman and Van Berlo clash. If “Changa” gets up this week, we could see a power running match up between these two wingers. Bateman is the hardest worker in the Hawthorn line up, and runs harder then any other player in our team, it will be interesting to see Van Berlo match him in this department. But if Bateman doesn’t pay the respect needed on the young crow, we could see Van Berlo’s class decimate us the other way.

The midfield clash will be tough, physical, and relentless. The crows will look to out body and out work Hawthorn as they did late last season, as the hawks play a pure attacking role out of the centre with no defensive roles.


Up Forward

Hawthorns forward line are simply relying on the Twin Towers, in Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead. Last week Tim Boyle made a return for no impact in the game, but this was purely from the Lance Franklin show displayed on an inexperienced Essendon defence. Unfortunately for ‘Buddy’ his goals wont come so easy this week. Franklin will most likely begin with Nathan Bock standing him, who I rate highly. As Jarryd Roughead will match up on Ben Rutten. Tim Boyle will force the match up of Bassett, and Rioli should get Johncock. The Adelaide defence are experts at rebounding, and look for ‘Stiffy’ to feature a lot on this rebounding as he works Rioli both ways. I expect Michael Osbourne to line up on McLeod. Unfortunatly it seems when Osbourne plays a defensive role, he hasn’t hurt his opposition by converting goals. But when Osborne can play purely as a forward flank he has the ability to chip in with a few goals.

Hawthorn can not expect week in and out for only Roughead and Franklin to figure on the score sheets, both guys are in great form sitting 1st and I believe 5th on the Coleman race. But Hawthorn really needs Rioli, Williams, Boyle and Osborne to feature on the scoring sheet. Also look for Clinton Young, and Hodge to try hurt the crows going forward. The Hawks will need multiple avenues to goal, against a strong crows defence.

The Main Men

For Hawthorn it starts in the rucks. The two headed monster of Campbell and Taylor have been incredible this year and depending on injury these guys need to be in their best form. When these ruck men give our midfield first use we are nearly unstoppable as seen against Port Adelaide and in the 2nd half vs Essendon.

Luke Hodge is also vital to our hopes in getting a win. Sam Mitchell had a tough game last week and for the past few has had some close attention. Hodge will need to play his best to give our forwards best use. He is our best kick in the team and we will need Hodges laser beam like left foot spearing as many kicks possible on to the twin towers chest.

But the most important player of this game is Lance Franklin’s left foot. The team looks to this guy, and why wouldn’t you? But when Buddy isn’t kicking straight the team over persists in getting him the football and it can turn out hurting the team more than benefiting it.


Summary

This game will be won and lost in the midfield. The Hawks will have to give their forwards first option and quick ball movement to hurt this experienced defence. Hawthorn must win the physical departments of this game, and not let our younger and lighter bodies (Young, Ellis, Morton) be knocked around as we saw in R14 2007. Clarkos Cluster must be on its most disciplined as it is vital our weak defence is helped out by getting numbers back and slowing the ball movement.

RECENT RESULTS

2008 R4 Hawthorn 3.4 8.5 14.8 17.12 (114) def. Adelaide 2.2 5.5 8.7 10.10 (70) York Park
2007 EF Hawthorn 4.3 8.7 10.10 15.15 (105) def. Adelaide 7.4 10.7 12.12 15.12 (102) Docklands
2007 R14 Adelaide 4.2 8.6 11.10 15.12 (102) def. Hawthorn 1.1 3.3 4.4 4.7 (31) Football Park
2006 R15 Adelaide 2.3 5.6 10.9 16.13 (109) def. Hawthorn 2.3 4.5 8.6 11.7 (73) Football Park
2005 R15 Hawthorn 4.4 4.7 5.7 10.8 (68) def. by Adelaide 2.0 4.2 12.3 12.6 (78) York Park


This game looks to be an absolute ripper, and with numerous injury concerns over the hawks this once already hard game looks even more difficult with question marks over our ruck duo and Chance Bateman. I believe with Hodge returning last week, the relentlessness and leadership he brings to the team will see Hawthorn lift in the midfield against this experienced crows out fit. If Hawthorn is to succeed it must win the centre duel.

Hawthorn by 13 points

 

[kaij10]

My prediction: Crows by 11 pts, Buddy held to 2 goals.

 

[crowman_23]

Sorry to intrude on your board, but that is the one thing that Franklin has done really well this year. He lays more tackle than Brown, Fevola, Pavlich and Riewoldt. Franklin's defensive pressure layed on two goals on satuday night. Roughead isn't bad defensively either (Franklin averages 2.4 Tackles per game Roughead 1.9, Jonathon Brown is 0.9, Pav 1.4, Fev 1.8 and Riewoldt is 0.6 to give a comparison). He has a tendancy to be over eager when defending and give away free kicks but that stops your momentum rebounding in any event.

The one you can exploit is Boyle, if I were the Crows I'd play Bock on him and tell him to run, the hawks will try and keep boyle away from Franklin and Roughead. Personally I'd have Stevens on Franklin, if you keep the other 5 forwards quiet - which imo your backline can easily do - Franklin cant win it on his own. When teams triple team franklin they lose.

Anyway good luck, I'm not that confident this weekend.

I think you've summed it up pretty well. Problem is it's a huge call to say if we can keep the other four forwards quiet. Rutten has struggled on Roughead before, Mark Williams can cause headaches if he's on song, though he seemed to play more up the ground on the weekend if I'm not wrong? Boyle shouldn't be a major issue, and of course ther's Buddy. Ususally our back are very effective because they're not only good one on one but they help each other out so much, make it more one on one and I think some could struggle a bit. If Bassett plays he has been pretty prdinary the last few weeks.

And when all that's said and done we have to prevent your midfielders and half backs from running down and kicking goals. Hodge is a master at sneaking forward and kicking multiple goals.

 

[Youknowhim]

Hi Guys, Im new to this forum,followed the crows all my life...Love the way the boys are going so far but the test will be against those Hawkers this week...If we get off to a good start we should stick with em' and get the 4 points...
Anyway Ill talk to you all soon im sure...

Billy...

 

[cmndstab]

Great work on the write-up Roughie


At the start of the year I picked Hodge to be the best player in the comp this year and I still feel that it's only injuries that have prevented it from happening so far. He always mashes up the Crows so I'm not looking forward to watching him run riot over us but it should be a brilliant game.

Hawthorn by 12 for my money but I'll still pick the Crows in the footy tips because I'm an idiot like that

 

[noddy]

Great work on the write-up Roughie


At the start of the year I picked Hodge to be the best player in the comp this year and I still feel that it's only injuries that have prevented it from happening so far. He always mashes up the Crows so I'm not looking forward to watching him run riot over us but it should be a brilliant game.

Hawthorn by 12 for my money but I'll still pick the Crows in the footy tips because I'm an idiot like that

Sewell is a big loss for the Hawks plus no Craford & if Shirl's can do a job on Hodges we are half way there.

Just hope that we don't over-do the "Buddy-must-be-stopped-show" & forget about their other forward options.


Crows to win on the last kick of the game.

 

[PCORF]

Its a massive game for us. Both teams want this one really bad. I expect it to be a physical war out there, lotsa bumps and bruises. There's almost no way of stopping Lance Franklin these days so its up to our midfield to play their guts out. Our forward line rotation has improved this year in some ways.

The game can go any way. It all depends who kicks to the Northern end in the final quarter. Also we have our own home crowd and when we are down in games this crowd can really start making some serious noise. The team that gets the most scoring shots is likely to win the game.

Its a hard one to predict. Feels very much like the same as the 2005 qualifying final against St Kilda when I tipped the Saints to win that game mainly due to the fact I was worried.

Hawks by 15 if they kick to Northern End in final quarter.

Crows to come from behind and win by 8 points if they kick to Northen End, a bit like the "home" showdown last year.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

The more I think about it the more confident Im starting to feel. Only reason why is surely the Great Man Buddy is going to have an ordinary game at some stage this year and why not against Adelaide at Aami on a saturday night.... Poor logic I know, but with Sewell, Guerra, Crawford out and Bateman and there rucks in doubt there probably isnt a better time to get them than now..... Crows By 40 points....... Buddy only 4

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The more I think about it the more confident Im starting to feel. Only reason why is surely the Great Man Buddy is going to have an ordinary game at some stage this year and why not against Adelaide at Aami on a saturday night.... Poor logic I know, but with Sewell, Guerra, Crawford out and Bateman and there rucks in doubt there probably isnt a better time to get them than now..... Crows By 40 points....... Buddy only 4

1.7 against Richmond earlier this season.

Bateman seems to be confident of being right to play. Crawf is touch and go, and to be truthful, he isn't the player he used to be. He has knee tendonitis, which is a week by week proposition and I think the club has been ultra-cautious with him to get him fully fit. He'll probably miss this week and come back when the Hawks are playing in Melbourne again. However, Stuart Dew should be available for selection which should offset the loss of Brent Guerra. The knock-on effect is that Grant Birchall should become a more effective player. Hodge will be better for the run against the Bombers (only played 64% of game time) and will be looking to stamp his mark on the contest.

There was nothing in Lewis' supposed jumper-punch. The Essendon player went down under perceived contact. Lewis didn't even make contact. Taz just needs to keep his head in and curb his aggression because giving away soft goals from 50 metre penalties is just stupid.

To be honest, I don't think we've played a game this season where we've had our best six midfielders available. To be where we are given the number of injuries and suspensions (yes, self-inflicted) is very good.

I expect that Neil Craig won't be as dumb as Matthew Knights and will try to block Franklin's space in the forward line by dropping a man back to provide a chop-out. Thus, the game is tailor-made for the likes of Mark Williams, Jarryd Roughead and Tim Boyle to make their contributions on the scoreboard if their men are preoccupied with being the second or third man up against Franklin.

Michael Osborne and Cyril Rioli will provide important forward line pressure to try to stop the rebound of McLeod and Johncock from the back line, though I wouldn't be surprised to see Tim Clarke go to Andrew McLeod and try to shut down his run.

I really rate Adelaide and I'm apprehensive about this game (still have nightmares of the last time we played at AAMI Stadium). We've given our opponents over the last fortnight a start and last weekend we were good enough to reel them in and eventually run over the top of them. However, I suspect that if Adelaide gets off to a flyer, then we'll struggle to get back into the contest.

 

[Harry Yorkie]

Its a massive game for us. Both teams want this one really bad. I expect it to be a physical war out there, lotsa bumps and bruises. There's almost no way of stopping Lance Franklin these days so its up to our midfield to play their guts out. Our forward line rotation has improved this year in some ways.

The game can go any way. It all depends who kicks to the Northern end in the final quarter. Also we have our own home crowd and when we are down in games this crowd can really start making some serious noise. The team that gets the most scoring shots is likely to win the game.

Its a hard one to predict. Feels very much like the same as the 2005 qualifying final against St Kilda when I tipped the Saints to win that game mainly due to the fact I was worried.

Hawks by 15 if they kick to Northern End in final quarter.

Crows to come from behind and win by 8 points if they kick to Northen End, a bit like the "home" showdown last year.

As this game is going to be decided by the toss of the coin and i've never been to Adelaide can you tell me which way is north on my TV, would that be to the left or right of screen?

 

[ams4crows]

the left

and for some unforgodsaken reason if we we need to get over the line in a despreate win we normaly go to the north in the last well all of our best come backs or hard fought wins we seem to be kicking that end last.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I expect that Neil Craig won't be as dumb as Matthew Knights and will try to block Franklin's space in the forward line by dropping a man back to provide a chop-out. Thus, the game is tailor-made for the likes of Mark Williams, Jarryd Roughead and Tim Boyle to make their contributions on the scoreboard if their men are preoccupied with being the second or third man up against Franklin.

I can definitely see this taking place. The Crows had a lock out training session today, perhaps practicising for the mother of all floods on Saturday night.

If both teams are able to play fast, direct, precise football there is no way we have the firepower up forward to compete. I can see us squeezing over the line in an ugly slog though.

 

[Brownie_30]

I think you've summed it up pretty well. Problem is it's a huge call to say if we can keep the other four forwards quiet. Rutten has struggled on Roughead before, Mark Williams can cause headaches if he's on song, though he seemed to play more up the ground on the weekend if I'm not wrong? Boyle shouldn't be a major issue, and of course ther's Buddy. Ususally our back are very effective because they're not only good one on one but they help each other out so much, make it more one on one and I think some could struggle a bit. If Bassett plays he has been pretty prdinary the last few weeks.

And when all that's said and done we have to prevent your midfielders and half backs from running down and kicking goals. Hodge is a master at sneaking forward and kicking multiple goals.

In all fairness Roughie had one good game on Rutten and Rutten is, in my opinion, the best defensive fullback in the comp.

Willo has been playing up the ground, played quite well on the weekend. If he has 10 kicks he will lay on or score 5 goals, such a beautiful kick with a great football brain.

Love Hodgy and he loves playing Adelaide could be the difference, but with Mitch having an injury(I think) and Bateman doubtful. And the others already out he will have a hard tag on him. But don't be fooled by the papers, Hodge is our best and most important player.

 

[rdhopkins2]

Should be a great game. Looking forward to it! In the meantime have been having a few laughs after work reading this page....lol...which one of u guys is responsible?

http://images.google.com.au/imgres?...es?q=port+power+choke&um=1&hl=en&cr=countryAU

 

[Mismatched]

Should be a great game. Looking forward to it! In the meantime have been having a few laughs after work reading this page....lol...which one of u guys is responsible?

http://images.google.com.au/imgres?...es?q=port+power+choke&um=1&hl=en&cr=countryAU

Haha, thats Gold

 

[MinerBoy]

Hawthorn by 11 points

I have a feeling it will be the Hawks in a close one or Adelaide by plenty.

I think a wet (dewy) Adelaide night, combined with our lack of recent good form and our unsettled line up through constant injuries, has us ready for our biggest loss for the season.

Hope I am wrong, but good luck all the same.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

1.7 against Richmond earlier this season.

Bateman seems to be confident of being right to play. Crawf is touch and go, and to be truthful, he isn't the player he used to be. He has knee tendonitis, which is a week by week proposition and I think the club has been ultra-cautious with him to get him fully fit. He'll probably miss this week and come back when the Hawks are playing in Melbourne again. However, Stuart Dew should be available for selection which should offset the loss of Brent Guerra. The knock-on effect is that Grant Birchall should become a more effective player. Hodge will be better for the run against the Bombers (only played 64% of game time) and will be looking to stamp his mark on the contest.

There was nothing in Lewis' supposed jumper-punch. The Essendon player went down under perceived contact. Lewis didn't even make contact. Taz just needs to keep his head in and curb his aggression because giving away soft goals from 50 metre penalties is just stupid.

To be honest, I don't think we've played a game this season where we've had our best six midfielders available. To be where we are given the number of injuries and suspensions (yes, self-inflicted) is very good.

I expect that Neil Craig won't be as dumb as Matthew Knights and will try to block Franklin's space in the forward line by dropping a man back to provide a chop-out. Thus, the game is tailor-made for the likes of Mark Williams, Jarryd Roughead and Tim Boyle to make their contributions on the scoreboard if their men are preoccupied with being the second or third man up against Franklin.

Michael Osborne and Cyril Rioli will provide important forward line pressure to try to stop the rebound of McLeod and Johncock from the back line, though I wouldn't be surprised to see Tim Clarke go to Andrew McLeod and try to shut down his run.

I really rate Adelaide and I'm apprehensive about this game (still have nightmares of the last time we played at AAMI Stadium). We've given our opponents over the last fortnight a start and last weekend we were good enough to reel them in and eventually run over the top of them. However, I suspect that if Adelaide gets off to a flyer, then we'll struggle to get back into the contest.

he still had 8 shots on goal which is a fair effort.... Surely one game he might just have 4. As for Dew, Im not convinced he is fit enough for AFL, he still has more rolls than a baker and I have never really rated him that highly anyway... I rate the Hawks as the best team in the league but if we are ever going to beat them it will be tomorrow night

 

[Geoffa32]

he still had 8 shots on goal which is a fair effort.... Surely one game he might just have 4. As for Dew, Im not convinced he is fit enough for AFL, he still has more rolls than a baker and I have never really rated him that highly anyway... I rate the Hawks as the best team in the league but if we are ever going to beat them it will be tomorrow night

"if it bleeds we can kill it"

 

[Buddyoath]

Good luck this week boys, should be a good game!! Not sure if we are going to win but just hope its close and there is a full house of you crow eaters... You need to shut down our running game and if you can do that i think you are a massive chance, anyway good luck sat night and for the rest of the year i dont mind the crows..... Go Hawks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Freddy Bassett]

"if it bleeds we can kill it"

" I aint got time to bleed"

 

[Crowman32]

Sounds like Croad may be in doubt for the Hawks.

 

[The Crows Truth]

ADELAIDE 1.90
HAWTHORN 1.88

current winning odds as per centrebet

i think the crows will move in to favourites here and start around 1.80 to win

the crows are now clear favourites to win and are paying 1.75

we need to win this game if we are a serious top 4 team