Preview Fremantle v Hawthorn - Elimination Final, Subiaco, Sat 4 September 3.20pm Changes and Discussion

[Pessimistic]

whitex for endurance - but Hodge can play the HBF

hooper to allow brown to play back

Petersen for the 3rd man up option - kill the ruck and we kill the lack of around the ground pace. but his endurance isnt quite up there - wheres hooper finished strongly



Whos next ? Guerra - kick ins and good on a small forward

 

[MuzzHawk]

I think it's St kilda or Geelong.

That would be correct. Winner of our game plays loser Saints and Cats. Winner of that game would then play the winner of the Pies and Bulldogs game.

 

[Pie eyed]

I was under the impression that a win against the Pies got your blokes a home final?
What happened there?

 

[Off The Couch]

I was under the impression that a win against the Pies got your blokes a home final?
What happened there?

It also was dependent on the lions beating Sydney and I don't think there were many that thought that would occur.

 

[Gene Simmons]

Interestingly Clarko said that Shoey, Shiels & Ladson would all be in the mix.

Reading between the lines, do we have injury concerns that we don't know about? Which players from Saturday would make way for any of the above 3?

 

[hawker11]

Interestingly Clarko said that Shoey, Shiels & Ladson would all be in the mix.

Reading between the lines, do we have injury concerns that we don't know about? Which players from Saturday would make way for any of the above 3?

I don't think it points to any injury concerns, it would be more of a motivator to all players placed on the fringe of the side.

There is also the cloud over Osbourne with the MRP...

 

[Gene Simmons]

I don't think it points to any injury concerns, it would be more of a motivator to all players placed on the fringe of the side.

There is also the cloud over Osbourne with the MRP...

Good old MRP!! In that worst case scenario if Ossie was suspended, I think he would be the one making way for Hodge.

 

[Henry Jr]

Couldn't see anyone who played at BoxHill yesterday making their way into the side this week.

 

[whiteTiga2k]

Well

Match-ups i'm thinking it will be

Sewell on Mundy
Changa to Hill
Gibbo to Pavlich

Without Ballantyne is a massive PLUS for us!

WE SHOULDN'T LOSE!

 

[Off The Couch]

Well

Match-ups i'm thinking it will be

Sewell on Mundy
Changa to Hill
Gibbo to Pavlich

Without Ballantyne is a massive PLUS for us!

WE SHOULDN'T LOSE!

Crowley in for them is huge - expect him to go to either hodge or mitchell and annoy the absolute crap out of them - his idea of tagging is completely different from that of the likes of cornes or ling

 

[prattsta]

Selection will depend on the Freo line-up as much as ours.

The fact we can release Rioli into the midfield is a bonus, but I think it comes down to whether we believe Roberton, Broughton, Hayden and/or J. Van Berlo either individually or collectively pose as big a rebounding offensive weapon to Freo as O'Brien does for the Pies.

I think they don't, Roberton runs laterally as much as directly up the ground, whilst Hayden often coughs the balls up and loves to kick 30m chips rather than 55m bombs like Harry. The other two tend to stick back with McPharlin and Grover as the stay at home defenders.

Duffield would be Fremantle's main rebounding defender. He's averaging 8.4 R50 per game which is second in the AFL and he has a total of 185 which puts him first by a fair way. To put that in perspective, Guerra is the next best with just 148 from the same number of games.

Pretty fair call on Hayden, his form has been a bit patchy this year. Though I'd say he loves to run 25m first - usually without bouncing - then kick a short 30m pass. That way if he turns it over he's miles out of position . The Fremantle defense does operate a lot better with him around though. I think it's the 'wily old veteran' effect...

Broughton has been rotating through the midfield a fair bit of late and hasn't been as much of a stay at home defender since Barlow went down. We needed to find an extra 30 disposals somewhere I guess. It'll all depend on the defensive match-ups though. I'd expect either Van Berlo or Broughton will be given the job on Rioli as they can both run through the middle if needed. Ibbotson would be another option I suppose.

Hodge, Burgoyne, Sewell, Mitchell, Rioli, Ellis, Lewis, Bateman, Young.

Mundy, Hill, Suban, Duffield, Hasleby, McPhee, Morabito, Ibbotson.

There's a considerable gap in midfield class and we need to consolidate this early. If Freo are forced to move Pavlich in there then that is a huge plus for us.

Changa to Hill. McPhee will probably go to Hodge. The rest will be head to head.

The worry is Sandilands and Johnson. Michael Johnson is in good form and is going forward and kicking goals. Renouf and Skipper need to compete hard otherwise our midfield class advantage could be cancelled out.

Since Barlow went down Pavlich has been spending the majority of his time in the middle already. Whereas Hasleby only gets involved in stoppages when they are inside the forward 50. It seems backwards but that's the way it is.

Crowley will come back into the side this week (30 disposals and 7 goals in the WAFL on the weekend is pretty hard to ignore) and spend as much time on-ball as he does up forward. Which is a positive inclusion for us - it certainly doesn't make up for Ballantyne going down though.

Ibbotson spends the majority of his time as a defender these days.

Then again, with the high rotations our 'midfield' group goes about 16 deep. I'm sure Hawthorn is the same in this regard. In different areas of the ground different players will have different roles at stoppages. Pretty much all the flankers and forward pockets will be in there at some stage. If you're wondering- game on the line, scores equal, 30 seconds to go, who is lining up at the centre bounce?

C Hill - Pavlich - Suban
R Sandilands - Mundy - Crowley

Does that give Hawthorn the edge? Probably. Sandilands will be the equaliser though. Look at Carlton on the weekend. They were beaten 45 to 33 in the clearances. Given the Hawks are already ranked first in opposition clearances per game I'm confident we'll at least break even.

Our complete no-show in Tasmania makes it hard to tip. I'll go with the heart though - completely disregarding the Hawks finals experience - and say Freo by 11 points...

 

[spudmaster]

Was quite surprised that Freo were favourites when the betting odds were released...

I understand they finished higher than us; it's their home game + ground; they have had a longer break etc, but really?

I am not for a minute going into this match thinking 'thank goodness, we've got a week off' but nor would I have considered playing the underdog card either

 

[Hodgepodge]

WhiteX is too good defensively to be dropped imo. Reminds me of Hodge in that he is always running across and creating a 2 on 1.

Good as Peterson was last week I think he's the most expendable at this point.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

prattsta, thanks for your post.

Can't see you blokes kicking enough goals if Pav doesn't spend a large chunk of his time up forward.

Wouldn't surprise me if you rested a ruckman at FF to expose our lack of height down back and played Pav at CHF.

 

[Threadkilla]

WhiteX is too good defensively to be dropped imo. Reminds me of Hodge in that he is always running across and creating a 2 on 1.

Good as Peterson was last week I think he's the most expendable at this point.

On the last point - I tend to agree.
Think Hooper is offering a bit more at this stage (with only a question over his fitness I guess), and Whitecross is covering somewhat for Birch.
For mine:
In: Hodge
Out: Peterson

 

[Hodgepodge]

Stratton to Johnson if he plays forward

 

[spudmaster]

If we omit Peterson, who goes 3rd man up against Sandi? I feel his exceptional leap could be necessary.

 

[Freo Blood]

McPharlin usually does a reasonable job on Buddy from memory, not to say he won't cut loose though.
Who are your strongest runners now - I remember a game a couple of years ago when Bateman blew us away early with repeat running. Does he Burgoyne, Hodge, Mitchell still have a big tank these days. Young also does well over here from memory. Does Rioli go mid also, did he have injury concerns early in the season?
Hill started centre square for alot of the game last week - will be interesting if harvey does the same against the harder hawks mids.
I think you have clearly better/more experienced mids at this stage and that should get you over the line. Balla is a big loss. However there were signs that freo were taking the game on more against Carlton, hopefully we continue to do that and shake it up!!
Good game, cant wait.

 

[whiteTiga2k]

think cyrils tank has built us beautifully as the year has progressed.. and hodgey burgers and mitch have great tanks. Not to disgard Lewy and Sewell as well! I dunno about u guys... i mean i have heard a LOT of criticism about him... but i think Lewy has been great for us this year. He has had to play many different roles for us... but he has tried his heart out... and i think his flexibility will turn him into a star within the next 2 years!

Last time it was Tarrant that played on buddy. I think he is a better match for buddy then mcpharlin.

I seriously rate us this week... i hope we get our only interstate away match win this year this week! COME ON BOYS

 

[Hodgepodge]

Yeah Lewis has been alright. But the reason he's played different roles is because he wasn't doing anything in the midfield early in the season.

He could be a much better player than he currently is.

 

[Neville Bartos]

How did Leuenberger go against Sandilands? I think he's probably the most similar player to Renouf this year in that he's 21 yet still relatively raw and has a good leap and mobility around the ground.

According to Footywire, they went head-to-head (no Mitch Clark or Kepler/Zac Clarke etc.) in Round 7 at the Gabba where Sandilands won the hit-outs 27-19. Leuenberger had 15 touches, Sandilands 21 and a goal.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Lewis is probably 2nd only to Burgoyne (maybe 3rd to Hodge) at getting the clear tap from the ruck, avoiding a tackle and sprinting forward with the pill.

The few times he's been our #1 midfielders he's got 30+ touches, mostly damaging.

When he's in that role however, he doesn't put much defensive pressure on.

In times when our rucks are being beaten (like say the last 3 seasons), the negatives of his onball style outweight the positives more often than not.

In a game where our rucks will be dominated, we need an onball unit better served to deal with opposition taps to advantage.

That probably means Sewell (tagging), Mitchell (sharking), and a quicker, tagging style player - relying on rebound from defence, and run from the wings to compete.

Sandilands is THE most important player on the ground by some measure. If we can curb his influence, we should win the game. If he plays a ripper, it's a 50/50 shot at best.

 

[JustKickIt]

Wouldn't surprise me if you rested a ruckman at FF to expose our lack of height down back and played Pav at CHF.

Can't we rest ours at FB if that happens?

 

[SJT76]

Can't we rest ours at FB if that happens?

You fancy our chances of stopping Sandi like that? If he goes forward, we need to win the clearances and make him a non-issue.

 

[Hungry Hawk]

We would need backmen who are prepared to leave their man and attack the contest if Sandilands ends up forward. I know they are following instruction but Stratton seems to be instinctual and that is why he stands out.