Strategy Geelong 2024 best 22/23

[CHAWKTS]

If I was nitpicking I'd say "likely" means the same as "probable" and there can't be 26 probable players in the best 23.

I'd probably just lock in the 19 or 20 certainties/probables and then have the last few spots split into a "scrapping for spots".

Here's my attempt, based on form or expectation of form as the season progresses (MCs perspective more than mine, perhaps just a sprinkle of how I see it added). I've tried to do a pecking order within categories too:

Certain/almost certain

Dangerfield
Cameron
Stewart
Miers
Holmes
Stengle
Zuthrie
Kolo
O Henry
Duncan
J Henry
Close
Bruhn
Blicavs
SDK

A decent chance

Hawkins
Bowes
Cam Guthrie

50/50 (rucks)

Conway
Stanley

Scrapping for last 4 spots

O'Connor
Parfitt
Atkins
Clark
Mullin
Rohan
Tuohy

Smokies

Neale
Mannagh
Hardie
Humphries
Knevitt
O'Sullivan

Of course if they pull the trigger on dropping/managing a few out of form players, then smokies playing well can shift things.

The "decent chance"ers need to find form to stay in. I think Atkins and Parfitt are somewhat back with the pack now. O'Connor is valued but I don't think he in undroppable.

Hawkins is only in "decent chance" in case things don't improve or get worse, in which case Neale still is a shot at displacing him. But I still see that as unlikely this year.

Probably a simply way to show it. All good except you left our man Dempsey off the list. Where does he fit?

Also interesting. In your scrap we have a lot of similar types which I assume is why they are scrapping!

 

[Mr Meow]

Probably a simply way to show it. All good except you left our man Dempsey off the list. Where does he fit?

Also interesting. In your scrap we have a lot of similar types which I assume is why they are scrapping!

Bloody hell, it's impossible to do these things without leaving somebody off!

There is always a chance Dempsey's form drops off a cliff but otherwise, I really believe he'll maintain his spot because he has shown good output both at half forward and on the wing. So he's in my near certainty/probably group (edited in now), leaving only 6 spots for the decent chance/scrappers to fight for.

The onus is on players like Bowes, O'Connor and Atkins to perform well or they really will feel pressure on their spots. The older ones Scott will likely keep giving more leeway, but even that will have its limits. Blicavs by second ruck capabilities and versatility should be fine. Guthrie, Hawkins, Tuohy and Rohan can't really afford to be flat for too long and I'd like to think we are phasing past at least a couple of these options by end of season.

 

[Lana]

FB Henry De Koning Z.Guthrie
HB Stewart Kolodjashnij Duncan
C Tuohy Holmes Dempsey
HF Cameron Neale Miers
FF Stengle Hawkins Rohan
Fol Conway Bowes Dangerfield
Int Guthire Bruhn Blicavs Close

Left out Atkins, Blicavs as the 6th inside mid/2nd ruck. alternative Blicavs to the wing Tuohy out and Atkins as the last inside mid.

Cameron as a High leading KPF, means we don't need Blicavs on the wing for an outlet kick. Chose Rohan over O.Henry. Neale as a better size match for other teams intercepting talls over O.Henry.

Guthrie over O'Connor, I want as many good users behind the ball, we'll miss the running power but a stronger midfield should protect our defence from being as vulnerable. Better ball movement will mean that when we do defend we'll be doing from further up the ground.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

FB Henry De Koning Z.Guthrie
HB Stewart Kolodjashnij Duncan
C Tuohy Holmes Dempsey
HF Cameron Neale Miers
FF Stengle Hawkins Rohan
Fol Conway Bowes Dangerfield
Int Guthire Bruhn Blicavs Close

Left out Atkins, Blicavs as the 6th inside mid/2nd ruck. alternative Blicavs to the wing Tuohy out and Atkins as the last inside mid.

Cameron as a High leading KPF, means we don't need Blicavs on the wing for an outlet kick. Chose Rohan over O.Henry. Neale as a better size match for other teams intercepting talls over O.Henry.

Guthrie over O'Connor, I was as many good users behind the ball, we'll miss the running power but a stronger midfield should protect our defence from being as vulnerable. Better ball movement will mean that when we do defend we'll be doing from further up the ground.

Rohan is not best 22.
Nor is tuohy who is the most obvious out.

 

[allrighty]

Here's how I see it. Hard to leave a few out TBH.

A couple of changes to the above team. Moved the chess pieces a little, with Close in, Rohan sub, Mannagh and Atkins on the pine. I'm thinking Atkins might come into it when the pace is off the game a bit like last week. Sadly I am not convinced Hawk is in there on current form but we shall see. If not OH would get a run.

FB Henry De Koning Z.Guthrie
HB Stewart Kolodjashnij Duncan
C Holmes Bruhn Dempsey
HF Cameron Neale Miers
FF Stengle Hawkins Close
Fol Conway Bowes Dangerfield
Int Guthrie, Mannagh, Blicavs, Atkins, Rohan (sub)

 

[Lana]

Rohan is not best 22.
Nor is tuohy who is the most obvious out.

I provided my rational

 

[CHAWKTS]

FB Henry De Koning Z.Guthrie
HB Stewart Kolodjashnij Duncan
C Tuohy Holmes Dempsey
HF Cameron Neale Miers
FF Stengle Hawkins Rohan
Fol Conway Bowes Dangerfield
Int Guthire Bruhn Blicavs Close

Left out Atkins, Blicavs as the 6th inside mid/2nd ruck. alternative Blicavs to the wing Tuohy out and Atkins as the last inside mid.

Cameron as a High leading KPF, means we don't need Blicavs on the wing for an outlet kick. Chose Rohan over O.Henry. Neale as a better size match for other teams intercepting talls over O.Henry.

Guthrie over O'Connor, I want as many good users behind the ball, we'll miss the running power but a stronger midfield should protect our defence from being as vulnerable. Better ball movement will mean that when we do defend we'll be doing from further up the ground.

As you posted separately - thanks for laying out your rationale. I have a different view on some (below) but that is what makes the world go around. In the end the final best 23 will depend I think on the performance of those where we have different views. I am projecting (as are you I suppose) where I think the evidence will be in 10 weeks - all of them will get a shot to make their case.

My assumption is that Rohan and 2E will go like Higgins and Dal in 2022. Played a fair amount in first half of season and then “hung around” in the second half filling in with injury and managing and ended up being (pretty good) backups if needed. Both of those guys were in our best 22 in 2021 and were liked by coaching staff but were squeezed out…

So for mine I take out Rohan and 2E and put in O Henry and Atkins. I am on the fence on whether Neale cracks the best 23 alongside Hawk and Jezza. If they didn’t pick Neale I think that opens up spot for MOC or Mullin as utilities. We could of course go for Clark instead - but the midfield starts to get pretty cramped.

In the end it seems like we have a “core” 20 emerging and the last 3 spots being fought for between some old and emerging players (2E, Rohan, Atkins, Clark, MOC, Mullin, Neale). Personally I think O Henry is part of that core 20 but understand why others have different view (

 

[Lana]

As you posted separately - thanks for laying out your rationale. I have a different view on some (below) but that is what makes the world go around. In the end the final best 23 will depend I think on the performance of those where we have different views. I am projecting (as are you I suppose) where I think the evidence will be in 10 weeks - all of them will get a shot to make their case.

My assumption is that Rohan and 2E will go like Higgins and Dal in 2022. Played a fair amount in first half of season and then “hung around” in the second half filling in with injury and managing and ended up being (pretty good) backups if needed. Both of those guys were in our best 22 in 2021 and were liked by coaching staff but were squeezed out…

So for mine I take out Rohan and 2E and put in O Henry and Atkins. I am on the fence on whether Neale cracks the best 23 alongside Hawk and Jezza. If they didn’t pick Neale I think that opens up spot for MOC or Mullin as utilities. We could of course go for Clark instead - but the midfield starts to get pretty cramped.

In the end it seems like we have a “core” 20 emerging and the last 3 spots being fought for between some old and emerging players (2E, Rohan, Atkins, Clark, MOC, Mullin, Neale). Personally I think O Henry is part of that core 20 but understand why others have different view (

I broke the squad down to around 27 selectable players, so we in a good position for depth. Both Tuohy and Rohan are on the bubble, but if we're trying to squeeze every mm out of the team cause we need it right now they're in. We're playing extra mids, I think we'll shorten the rotations for finals. When there isn't 15 weeks of a season to go we can ramp up their game time from 65% to 75%

There was an article on the AFL website about wingman and the importance of off ball movement that isn't captured in the DT-esque stats. I think Rohan personifies the concept. And while Tuohy doesn't accumulate like he used to but he still hits his marks when it is his turn.

I think Rohan and O.Henry are complete opposites, I'm firm in my position that a player can accumulate goals without necessarily adding impact. I call it the Josh Jenkins Phenomena. There are two version of Rohan, neither really accumulate much of the ball but one of them "Super Rohan" has impact, moves with speed, hits packs of players. I want all Geelong players to succeed but it'll be while before I rate O.Henry. I don't care if he has 20 goals from 10 games. He is better then last year at the off the ball stuff but opposition clubs are really taking advantage of him to set up an extra tall behind the ball. With Hawkins on his last legs, it just accentuates the problem. Cameron has to roam for the two of them.

Atkins was the right guy for the job in 2022. With Selwood in there still extracting the ball we needed to extra defensive mindness to cover for the aggression of Guthrie, Danger and Selwood. But now we need guys who can win the ball and spread he isn't the guy who can do that to a high standard. Parfitt is out for the same reason. There are some intangible gaps between those two. But we'll be better when they are forced out by better players

O'Connor a solid Jack of all trades with high tier athleticism. it be interesting to see if he played at VFL level if he would standout from the group or play down to the level. In any given week one of our oldies is bound be in there repair show which will keep him in. Covers a lot ground between the arcs. I'm hoping if we clean up our ball movement we'll care less about it, there isn't as much end to end running when you score goals.

We could try Humphries but it might just be a young Z.Guthrie situation.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I provided my rational

I saw the rationale but i disagree.
Tuohy is cooked and can barely play 4 games in a row he will fall out come finals like older players of previous years.

Rohan is not quite as cooked but hes in his last year and hes off his best. Hes not having henry dropped for him and his chances of being best 22 left when dempsey emerged.

 

[CHAWKTS]

I broke the squad down to around 27 selectable players, so we in a good position for depth. Both Tuohy and Rohan are on the bubble, but if we're trying to squeeze every mm out of the team cause we need it right now they're in. We're playing extra mids, I think we'll shorten the rotations for finals. When there isn't 15 weeks of a season to go we can ramp up their game time from 65% to 75%

There was an article on the AFL website about wingman and the importance of off ball movement that isn't captured in the DT-esque stats. I think Rohan personifies the concept. And while Tuohy doesn't accumulate like he used to but he still hits his marks when it is his turn.

I think Rohan and O.Henry are complete opposites, I'm firm in my position that a player can accumulate goals without necessarily adding impact. I call it the Josh Jenkins Phenomena. There are two version of Rohan, neither really accumulate much of the ball but one of them "Super Rohan" has impact, moves with speed, hits packs of players. I want all Geelong players to succeed but it'll be while before I rate O.Henry. I don't care if he has 20 goals from 10 games. He is better then last year at the off the ball stuff but opposition clubs are really taking advantage of him to set up an extra tall behind the ball. With Hawkins on his last legs, it just accentuates the problem. Cameron has to roam for the two of them.

Atkins was the right guy for the job in 2022. With Selwood in there still extracting the ball we needed to extra defensive mindness to cover for the aggression of Guthrie, Danger and Selwood. But now we need guys who can win the ball and spread he isn't the guy who can do that to a high standard. Parfitt is out for the same reason. There are some intangible gaps between those two. But we'll be better when they are forced out by better players

O'Connor a solid Jack of all trades with high tier athleticism. it be interesting to see if he played at VFL level if he would standout from the group or play down to the level. In any given week one of our oldies is bound be in there repair show which will keep him in. Covers a lot ground between the arcs. I'm hoping if we clean up our ball movement we'll care less about it, there isn't as much end to end running when you score goals.

We could try Humphries but it might just be a young Z.Guthrie situation.

Again. Well thought out logic but I have a different view on Henry vs Rohan. Not that I don’t appreciate the “Super Rohan” but I am of the view (could be wrong) that we will see that version very rarely. Same with 2E. If we get 80-90% of their best then they could keep pushing into the best 23 if we are still in mix to win. If they are 60-70% then I think we have better options. Too early to tell yet i think as we have seen both versions this year!

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I saw the rationale but i disagree.
Tuohy is cooked and can barely play 4 games in a row he will fall out come finals like older players of previous years.

Rohan is not quite as cooked but hes in his last year and hes off his best. Hes not having henry dropped for him and his chances of being best 22 left when dempsey emerged.

I agree on tuohy but Rohan plays a different role to Henry and it's one that makes the whole team better. Henry we do need to get games into for the future but if you're trying to win a game at all costs tomorrow I ain't playing Henry.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I agree on tuohy but Rohan plays a different role to Henry and it's one that makes the whole team better. Henry we do need to get games into for the future but if you're trying to win a game at all costs tomorrow I ain't playing Henry.

I get that but the upside with henry is undeniable and rohan is in his last year. Thats not a call i see the coaches making unless rohan starts impacting more than he is.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I get that but the upside with henry is undeniable and rohan is in his last year. Thats not a call i see the coaches making unless rohan starts impacting more than he is.

Yeah sure but the question is best 22 not best 21 and a kid we expect to overrake some one soon.

I think Henry could well and truly be a better option if we knew how to use him but we don't

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Yeah sure but the question is best 22 not best 21 and a kid we expect to overrake some one soon.

I think Henry could well and truly be a better option if we knew how to use him but we don't

Henry will be a great option once hawkins retires you watch and see. A lot will change.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Rohan is not best 22 and is done.
Tuohy is done.
Duncan is sadly close to cooked for speed. I would drop him but mc probably wont.
Neale is not ready and structurally the extra tall unbalances us. Id only play him when hawk doesnt play. This is hawks last year so neale will get chances next year.
Mullin will be decent eventually but is not ready (today exposed this). We may have to play him given lack of other small defenders-we wont go back to bews which means we would have to put atkins or connor back there full time if we drop mullin.

Bowes has his flaws but is best 22 for his midfield contest work.
Atkins the same.
Clark is probably not best 22 at this stage but i can see why they are persisting with him as he will be very good once he has strength and endurance.
The team desperately needs speed which it lacks. Its a pity mannagh will have played no footy for 3 weeks as he is the type of dynamic player we need.
Oconnor is very marginal but might stay because of the oconnor issue.
Guthrie probably needs to roll through hbf at times
Danger needs to come back straight after the bye and cameron needs to be fwd none of this wing nonsense.
Stanley is cooked he should only play the games conway needs a rest.
Blitz is needed for structure (2nd ruck issue) but he is slowing down and quicker mids will burn him
Sdk doesnt look right but i dont think you can drop him unless you try jeka and im not sure if that works. Cos isnt ready.
I would actually try stewart in the midfield to see if we can get around the tagging issue.
Holmes needs to be midfield to get around our lack of depth there.

With that in mind:
B: Kolo Henry oconnor
Hb: zuthrie SDK stewart
C: Holmes Cuthrie Dempsey
HF: Close Cameron Miers
F: Stengle Hawkins Ohenry
R: Conway Dangerfield Bruhn
B: Blicavs Atkins Bowes Duncan
S: Mannagh (i think hes the ideal impact sub but i get not everyone agrees)

Mullin (parfitt i think is just marking time til he leaves at end of year) Clark and potentially neale are your next 3 in (since we wont play hardie).
I wouldnt bother going back to rohan or tuohy

I personally would get radical and try humphries for carlton but im unsure if we will.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Henry will be a great option once hawkins retires you watch and see. A lot will change.

Well, all I know is that you can't teach height and he's trying to play taller than he is

 

[rapidfire7]

I reckon the absolute certainties to retire/be moved on at the end of the season are Bews, Tuohy, Duncan, Hawkins and Stanley.

Danger, Guthrie (and possibly Rohan) for one more.

Blicavs for a couple.

 

[you pick one]

Right now:

B: Z.Guthrie De Koning Kolodjashnij
HB: Stewart J.Henry Holmes
C: Duncan C.Guthrie Blicavs
HF: Close Cameron Miers
F: Stengle Hawkins O.Henry
R: Stanley Dangerfield Bowes
Int: Bruhn O’Connor Parfitt Dempsey
Sub: Atkins

Which, from last night’s side, is C.Guthrie for Clark and Stanley for Conway.

Still think Rohan will make a run for it and Tuohy will get chances to stake a claim.

Only one like but Atkins in for C.Guthrie and Rohan sub would have got you two.

 

[DanA]

I reckon the absolute certainties to retire/be moved on at the end of the season are Bews, Tuohy, Duncan, Hawkins and Stanley.

Danger, Guthrie (and possibly Rohan) for one more.

Blicavs for a couple.

I’d put Rohan on the certainty list and shift Duncan and Touhy on a likely list. Guthrie is unlikely due to contract but maybe we do some kind of settlement as he hasn’t really played for two years now. Blicavs feels very unlikely.

 

[allrighty]

This thread did not age so well did it?
I'm not even sure what I posted up there somewhere or other and cbf looking.

But the weekend has thrown a few spanners in the works.
Of course the weather helped us I think, but it's the same for both teams.
Danger tidied up the MF to some extent, and allowed Axe and Bowes ("the weapons") to get much more active.
The Neale and Rohan dynamic changed the forward line completely from the last couple of months.
Touhy was very good and the two newbies in Knevitt and Humphries belonged.
Dempsey was BOG again and SDK was good enough and is gaining confidence.
Jenry, Stew and Blitz all gaining confidence.
Mannagh and Clohesy smashing it in the 2s.

So where do we go from here?

Both Stanley and Conway injured so who rucks?
If SDK rucks then who plays on the monster forwards?
Can our older players keep up the momentum?

Hard to see any of the younglings - Neale, Knevitt and Humphries - getting dropped.
How do we get Mannagh in?
For Clark?

Enough musing for me for now.
The most important thing for us is to get over the line next weekend vs the P&Ws.

 

[Baudolino]

FB J.Henry Blicavs Z.Guthrie
HB Humphries Kolodjashnij Duncan
C Tuohy Holmes Dempsey
HF Close Neale Miers
FF Stengle Cameron Rohan
Fol SDK Dangerfield Stewart
Int C.Guthrie Bowes Bruhn Atkins
Sub: O.Henry

Notes:

• Our midfield sucks so I think we need to use Stewart through there to give us some solidity. Holmes continues to play more through midfield rather than off the HBF for the same reason.
• Blicavs has the height to play on the monster talls, which is something we need anyway with SDK in the ruck, and it could be a decent circuit breaker for him to move out of the midfield given the mediocre year he's been having.
• SDK rucks 80% game time, Blicavs and Neale offer a chop out for the other 20% of the time.
• We need better ball users and/or line-breaking speed off the HBF, especially with Holmes moving to the middle. I'd give Humphries the whole rest of the season for this reason. He's a silky user by foot and makes good decisions. He's also far more AFL-ready than other kids on our list who have been given games (i.e. Clark).
• If Cam Guthrie isn't able to recapture his All Australian best as a midfielder, then move him to the HBF rotations, where his composure and ball use will be assets.
• Rohan is a mandatory selection imo, he's too valuable to the cohesion of our forward structure. Ollie Henry can be substitute, coming on the ground for Rohan if he's not firing or as additional firepower if we're behind.
• No more Roaming Jez. Keep him inside 50 for the majority of the game and let him be the gun forward he is.

 

[year of the cat]

B: Humphries, De Koning, J.Kolo
HB: Z.Guthrie, J.Henry, T.Stewart
C: Dempsey, Bruhn, Knevitt
HF: Close, Cameron, Miers
F: Stengle, Neale, Rohan

Foll: Blicavs, Dangerfield, Holmes

Int: Duncan, Atkins, Bowes, Mannagh

Sub Tuohy

 

[CHAWKTS]

This thread did not age so well did it?

Too right. It was only a few weeks ago I was predicting that Rohan and 2E were going to be our Higgins and Dal from 2022! I feel like David King…

To my defence…I knew both of them at their best could be best 22 but not convinced that they can keep it up week in week out…so maybe we do need more than 1 game (against a fraudulent top 4 team!) before we completely change and have them back in the best 23?

I also think 2E in the backline is much much better than on the wing as he has been going. The system was such that he was often the spare and he played that role well. He is an excellent kick out of the backline.

And Rohan did what Rohan can - I would like to see it 3-4 games before I fully embrace it….but I hope I do see it because if he is doing that each week we are a much better version of ourselves

 

[Mr Meow]

Too right. It was only a few weeks ago I was predicting that Rohan and 2E were going to be our Higgins and Dal from 2022! I feel like David King…

To my defence…I knew both of them at their best could be best 22 but not convinced that they can keep it up week in week out…so maybe we do need more than 1 game (against a fraudulent top 4 team!) before we completely change and have them back in the best 23?

I also think 2E in the backline is much much better than on the wing as he has been going. The system was such that he was often the spare and he played that role well. He is an excellent kick out of the backline.

And Rohan did what Rohan can - I would like to see it 3-4 games before I fully embrace it….but I hope I do see it because if he is doing that each week we are a much better version of ourselves

Agree on Tuohy. We should only play him as a loose defender doing what he did on Saturday. Him, Duncan and Humphries give us some of that drive we need from back there. Plus it releases Holmes and/or Stewart to midfield when we need them there.

 

[allrighty]

Too right. It was only a few weeks ago I was predicting that Rohan and 2E were going to be our Higgins and Dal from 2022! I feel like David King…

To my defence…I knew both of them at their best could be best 22 but not convinced that they can keep it up week in week out…so maybe we do need more than 1 game (against a fraudulent top 4 team!) before we completely change and have them back in the best 23?

I also think 2E in the backline is much much better than on the wing as he has been going. The system was such that he was often the spare and he played that role well. He is an excellent kick out of the backline.

And Rohan did what Rohan can - I would like to see it 3-4 games before I fully embrace it….but I hope I do see it because if he is doing that each week we are a much better version of ourselves

I had Touhy out but Rohan as sub/borderline.

Like you I don't want to jump to conclusions too soon, but I like what I saw and in the twos as well. The ones looked like they were refreshed and had some urgency, intent and mongrel back.

Stating the obvious but roaming Jez vs CHF Jez is a no brainer. 2.3 could have had 5-6