Review Good/Bad vs St Kilda, R9 2023

[Rory Walkerfield]

I think we can all agree is our overall team development has moved quicker than we expected and no coincidence that a number of players have reached the 50+ game mark and amazing how injection of two “A” graders into the side.

Our first round picks - Milera, Fogarty, Jones, Thilthorpe, Pedlar, Rachele, Michalanney, Rankine - not a bad group.

You forgot Smith and Doedee who are both firsts. And Rankine and McHenry.

That’s more than half the side yesterday. First round picks make a massive difference.

 

[Crow till I die]

I think we can all agree is our overall team development has moved quicker than we expected and no coincidence that a number of players have reached the 50+ game mark and amazing how injection of two “A” graders into the side.

Our first round picks - Milera, Fogarty, Jones, Thilthorpe, Pedlar, Rachele, Michalanney, Rankine - not a bad group.

Think what might have been had we nailed the McAsey pick now that we are seeing the fruits of the picks we nailed..A Caleb Serong or Will Day in addition to what we have and it would have been almost a complete midfield set up

 

[ABAB]

Think what might have been had we nailed the McAsey pick now that we are seeing the fruits of the picks we nailed..A Caleb Serong or Will Day in addition to what we have and it would have been almost a complete midfield set up

Or had McAsey developed into the elite KPD he was projected to be in his draft year, good recruiting by Hamish as Murray is showing this development which McAsey should have.

 

[Golumless]

I only watched the reply but wasn’t specifically looking for his disposal was just a gut feel after the game.
However I did see a clip on 360 where he should have got done holding the ball but tex swooped and kicked a goal, wonder if that was called a goal assist.

It probably did, seeing Keays likely got given a handball to explain away that not being a HTB call.

 

[FR0GGY]

It probably did, seeing Keays likely got given a handball to explain away that not being a HTB call.

I’d love to know how many people they have recording the stats per game, seems so many things they have to be looking for at each contest.

 

[1990crow]

Think what might have been had we nailed the McAsey pick now that we are seeing the fruits of the picks we nailed..A Caleb Serong or Will Day in addition to what we have and it would have been almost a complete midfield set up

Normally takes longer for players to make an impact too.
Soligo, Pedlar, Rachele, Michalanney, Murray, Hinge all have minimal games but are playing like experienced players.

Once we get Thilthorpe and someone like Worrell having an impact we could go to another level.

 

[CrowBloke]

Bad luck to whoever makes way for Murray and/or Worrell this week

As it happens, it'll be Doedee (concussion).

 

[Jack McKraken]

Very different role for Murphy. In previous seasons, especially until the end of 2021, he mostly played as a (fairly poor) small forward. He's played a lot more around the midfield and half forward this year, and all his stats are up except goals and tackles, since he's playing further from goal. In particular he's getting more of the ball, particularly more uncontested ball, and winning more clearances. His role is really not to kick goals - his attempts on goal are also down 50% from this time last year.

His pressure game is easily the best at our club, and I think you're underrating that a lot. It's just not true that you can easily get someone else to come in and do that just as well as Murphy. If you made a compilation of the best chases/tackles/smothers for the club for the season I reckon half of them would be Murphy. Lifts the whole side.

He is also a nice kick inside 50, as evidenced by his goal assists record. Will never be a superstar but I reckon he'd be top 10 in the B&F at this stage, nowhere near losing his spot.

Good analysis, also borne out by his heat map for Sunday’s game.

 

[jackster83]

Yeh, only 5 AFLCA Coaches' votes from yesterday.

Laird is the one who has been abnormally quiet recently.

Hasn't been awful but just not as prolific by his standards.

Not sure if it's the calf or the tags he's been copping, or just taking a bit of a back seat to Dawson.

 

[Coopers]

I think we can all agree is our overall team development has moved quicker than we expected and no coincidence that a number of players have reached the 50+ game mark and amazing how injection of two “A” graders into the side.

Our first round picks - Milera, Fogarty, Jones, Thilthorpe, Pedlar, Rachele, Michalanney, Rankine - not a bad group.

Hurts me to think that Gallucci and Macasey should be in there too

 

[Coopers]

Laird is the one who has been abnormally quiet recently.

Hasn't been awful but just not as prolific by his standards.

Not sure if it's the calf or the tags he's been copping, or just taking a bit of a back seat to Dawson.

Hillarious that that's both true, and he's still 15th in the league for disposals.

 

[kirky]

Hurts me to think that Gallucci and Macasey should be in there too

Not all draft picks and even first rounders make it. It was unfortunate we had a couple back to back which didn’t work out.

 

[kirky]

Laird is the one who has been abnormally quiet recently.

Hasn't been awful but just not as prolific by his standards.

Not sure if it's the calf or the tags he's been copping, or just taking a bit of a back seat to Dawson.

Don’t necessarily see it as a problem, it forces others to step up.

 

[CrowBloke]

It probably did, seeing Keays likely got given a handball to explain away that not being a HTB call.

When it happened on Sunday I thought it was htb, luckily not called. Keays seemed to have prior opportunity.
I watched the highlights replay at 1/4 speed four times and I couldn't tell if Keays handballed or not.
It might have been one of those ball-dislodged-in-the-tackle calls.

(Edit: watching the AFL replay; slo-mo view of Keays from Eastern-side angle shows he got half a fist on the ball = handball, play on, looks like)

Either way, play on was called and Tex pounced like a younger, smaller man and snapped well.
Walker, who is now equal 6th in the Coleman, doesn't look tired or slow and is on track for a 45-50 goal season. Where are his critics now?
<<crickets chirping>>

 

[CrowBloke]

I think we can all agree is our overall team development has moved quicker than we expected

I am really surprised (happily), especially after the first 2 rounds. I was worried we could be 3-7 after 10 rounds.
The footy we've played in the PA, Carlton and Saints wins has been great to watch; irresistible.
Shades of 2017 but more even contributions.

 

[kirky]

I am really surprised (happily), especially after the first 2 rounds. I was worried we could be 3-7 after 10 rounds.
The footy we've played in the PA, Carlton and Saints wins has been great to watch; irresistible.
Shades of 2017 but more even contributions.

And I’d also say that with the likes of Rankine, Soligo etc they have much better cleaner execution, Soligo particularly.

 

[CrowBloke]

Just started watching the game replay.
Referencing the Saints' 2023 defensive record, one of the commentators (Brereton?) said: "It must be a horrible feeling going out there thinking you're going to be hard-pressed to kick goals...".

2.5 hours later, 19.7

 

[Brasher]

Good analysis, also borne out by his heat map for Sunday’s game.
View attachment 1688741

Crazy heat map for a left footer...suggests he is straightening up our forward 50 entries.

 

[Golumless]

I am really surprised (happily), especially after the first 2 rounds. I was worried we could be 3-7 after 10 rounds.
The footy we've played in the PA, Carlton and Saints wins has been great to watch; irresistible.
Shades of 2017 but more even contributions.

The one thing that's been very eye catching to me is just how much we are smothering the ball. Especially when we're playing well at the moment.

In a way we seem more locked in than 2017, but lacking that consistent, brutal punch that side had.

 

[Golumless]

Not all draft picks and even first rounders make it. It was unfortunate we had a couple back to back which didn’t work out.

Not only that, but a team who can't develop from the 2nd round onwards has a snowball hope in hell of winning a premiership.

Sure, you need to hit on the first round picks, but you also need to be filtering out the picks that don't quite live up to the billing with talented options.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Re. Riley Thilthorpe starting in the ruck each quarter

Nicks: "That's where we have elite leaders. So we had a conversation through the week with Riley and his ability to start a game off, impact the game early and I sat down with Reilly O'Brien

43

Reilly O'brien

Age

29

Ht

202cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.4

4star

K

5.9

2star

HB

8.5

5star

CL

1.6

4star

HO

23.8

5star

D

14.4

3star

K

5.9

2star

HB

8.5

4star

CL

1.6

4star

HO

23.8

5star

D

12.6

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

7.8

5star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

24.8

5star

and asked how do you feel about this and ROB was a massive supporter of it."

Taking that at face value, it's a huge positive if a senior player is willing to sacrifice his own game / step aside to help a younger player. It hasn't felt like that's been the case before. Previously senior players would only be shuffled aside from their preferred role begrudgingly, and only after an extended period of terrible performances.

 

[arrowman]

Its crazy though isnt it arrowman…
and therein lies the reason why i think it is just another bullshit stat..

So player 1 handballs to player 2 who handballs to player 3 who goals..

1 player gets a score involvement and 1 gets a goal assist!..

Bahahaha.. what an absolute load of meningless horseshit clearly thought up by fxxkn morons with boring lives..

Both player 1 and player 2 handballed the fxxkn ball and a goal was created from it.

Why treat the very same actions differently just because 1 occurs immediately before the goal is kicked?..

Like all stats they have their limitations (I mean, we argue about disposal efficiency all the time), but they're not total BS. This subject has caught my attention, so I'll bang on a bit...

Score Involvement: You are right to say that the further back in the chain you go, the less meaningful this stat becomes. Hitting a target off HBF for example gives you a tick for disposal efficiency, but after that you're just getting credit for your teammates' work further up the ground.

I think it becomes more meaningful when the play is closer to goal e.g. extracting the ball from a contest in the F50, handballing to a teammate who then handballs over the top to the goal kicker etc. I think some credit is due for that. (OK, you get credit for the contested possession or whatever.)

Which brings me to ask the question: I wonder how long scoring chains typically are? My guess is that a chain of more than 3-4 would be relatively uncommon. I'd like to see the stat for "length of scoring chains". It's a team stat more than an individual stat.

Goal Assist: I think this is pretty meaningful. It's a measure of the player's involvement in setting up a score: a quick handball in the F50, an accurate F50 entry etc. How many times have we bemoaned our mids' inability to lower their eyes and hit up targets? Those are valuable goal assists.

- And how many goals are "unassisted", i.e. the player gets their own ball and goals from it. The Pedlar extraction and goal that has been lauded in this thread is a good example. I'd suggest that not that many goals are "unassisted" but it would be interesting to see that stat.

 

[Vader]

Goal Assist: I think this is pretty meaningful. It's a measure of the player's involvement in setting up a score: a quick handball in the F50, an accurate F50 entry etc. How many times have we bemoaned our mids' inability to lower their eyes and hit up targets? Those are valuable goal assists.

- And how many goals are "unassisted", i.e. the player gets their own ball and goals from it. The Pedlar extraction and goal that has been lauded in this thread is a good example. I'd suggest that not that many goals are "unassisted" but it would be interesting to see that stat.

Unassisted goals would also include intercepts from opposition disposals, Tex taking the ball out of the ruck and slamming it on his boot, and (most common) players roving the front of a marking contest.

 

[arrowman]

This week's On The Couch he said Adelaide would definitely play finals and would give top 4 a shake. Definitely rates the current form.

I get nervous when commentators talk us up like that. Maybe it's just PTSD, but I think in general commentators tend to overstate the case "OMG how good are they?" and supporters (of rebuilding / middling clubs) tend to be more circumspect / sceptical.

PS speaking of the comments about Dawson's "down day" and still in the coaches' votes: I'd love to see the Brownlow and coaches' votes for each game, side by side, at the end of the season; it might make for interesting reading and many online debates.

 

[Golumless]

Like all stats they have their limitations (I mean, we argue about disposal efficiency all the time), but they're not total BS. This subject has caught my attention, so I'll bang on a bit...

Score Involvement: You are right to say that the further back in the chain you go, the less meaningful this stat becomes. Hitting a target off HBF for example gives you a tick for disposal efficiency, but after that you're just getting credit for your teammates' work further up the ground.

.

Considering how this game works, it tends to be the inverse. The ones closer to goal are getting credit for your work on the half back flank. After all, that's the usually the dispsoal in the chain that breaks an opposition defensive structure and allows for a scoring opportunity.

I imagine score involvements would usually count from the moment a play has started, so you wouldn't get too many more than 4-5 unless you're really overpossessing the ball... or your opposition are spuds and are letting you slowly chip it forwards until you get a shot.