Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Arr0w]

quoting a post from 3 months ago is some form dude, well done

You complaining about old posts being quoted or being tagged, rich

 

[SSSSSS]

Genuine question, why would I be provoked by a bunch of Hawks supporters circle jerking each other as a “told you so” when at the time of writing was correct.

Imagine saying you’re not fat when your 125kg, and then losing 45kg and saying, see, told you so

Seriously man, get a grip and get over yourself.

I have put my hand up and said things look vastly different now than at time of initial post. But hey, you do you



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Nice melt.

 

[tommyk72]

Montagna's brain is cooked from too many head knocks and nose beers.

A 10 year rebuild? Regardless of which club you are talking about what a brain dead thing to say.

I mean he is from St Kilda. 10 year rebuild would be optimistic...

 

[Dewyyyyy]

A lot of showboating in this thread (that I'm all for all things considered), but I still don't think we are anywhere near a finished product.
Got a handful of players in the VFL currently who look like they could be long-term prospects, too.

Hawthorn will likely make finals, and are still well off being at their best.

Wait till some of the talent kicks on in Ward, Mackenzie, MacDonald, Watson, Ginnivan, Dear etc.

Raw right now and still performing well, even Day, Newcombe and co have more growing power to become stars, it’s a scary prospect, including more draftees, free agents.

Including a guy like Will McCabe of course, who we haven’t seen but is a smooth moving 197cm key defender to sort the CHB for the next decade.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

At the time of posting (April 17th), you had just recieved your 5th loss in a row. Can you blame any normal, rational person for thinking Hawthorn were going to be a chance at finals? No way


Credit, where credit is due, Mitchell has done a good job and has got them playing a good honest brand of football. One that would stack up in finals

It’s the way people went about it. I think it was Bartel who said despite the 0-5 start that the method and talent was there to quickly turn around and rise within 2024 and beyond.

Suggesting otherwise was silly because as Brad Scott says, people can be too result focused, as important as it is, process leading to that is the most important component.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Except they are still missing a few key elements. No big forwards really that are going to worry anybody and when the pressure is up, smalls generally don't do as well as talls.

They are flying but not the finished package and not ready to contend. Making finals will help though getting experience.

Chol has been awesome in 2024, he’s always had the talent to be a top liner it was just an application issue. Gunston is still a good plug and play experience piece and Dear has shown good talent. It’s a little sad that Mitch Lewis cannot get back till mid or late 2025, but with Scaife who is also talented and awaiting an opportunity the cupboard isn’t completely bare, and sides have won flags with worse spines forward of centre (Melbourne & Collingwood for example).

 

[Purple Suit]

Chol has been awesome in 2024, he’s always had the talent to be a top liner it was just an application issue. Gunston is still a good plug and play experience piece and Dear has shown good talent. It’s a little sad that Mitch Lewis cannot get back till mid or late 2025, but with Scaife who is also talented and awaiting an opportunity the cupboard isn’t completely bare, and sides have won flags with worse spines forward of centre (Melbourne & Collingwood for example).

Chol has been reasonable but is 27 so not likely to get that much better. Journeymen rarely improve at that age and turn into a top liner.

Lewis is always injured, Gunston is old and I have barely seen or heard of the others.

You are going to have to fix it. The sides you talk about with similar tall forwards were 1 flag wonders in changing eras. Excitement and drive only get you so far till teams come up with game plans to stop you.

 

[sr36]

Exactly. It was a ****ing stupid take by Montagna, but even worse was that he couldn’t identify that we had the talent, it just was not performing at all well.

Bartel could.

It wasn't a stupid take. Early this year, you looked good things to clock up year 6 out of the finals. I hope you make them as you're a fun team to watch, but it's still a fair chance that you'll miss (without looking at the fixture).

 

[Gavin Excell]

Chol has been awesome in 2024, he’s always had the talent to be a top liner it was just an application issue. Gunston is still a good plug and play experience piece and Dear has shown good talent. It’s a little sad that Mitch Lewis cannot get back till mid or late 2025, but with Scaife who is also talented and awaiting an opportunity the cupboard isn’t completely bare, and sides have won flags with worse spines forward of centre (Melbourne & Collingwood for example).

Thing I have noticed about Hawks is the small forward brigade which may also be a reflection of trends in the competition. Its fair to say the value of good small forwards appears much higher than say 5 years back

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Chol has been reasonable but is 27 so not likely to get that much better. Journeymen rarely improve at that age and turn into a top liner.

Lewis is always injured, Gunston is old and I have barely seen or heard of the others.

You are going to have to fix it. The sides you talk about with similar tall forwards were 1 flag wonders in changing eras. Excitement and drive only get you so far till teams come up with game plans to stop you.

Saying his age is one thing but talent wise he has more levels than what he is at now, may get there may not. But silly to dismiss that as a chance.

Lewis injury sucks, Gunston is old but still decent, Dear has been one of the main forwards with Chol recently (10-1) or something with him playing. Scaife MSD pick who has been good at VFL level and a 20 year old KPF.

The fact is this off season will be a huge focus on building the list, which starts from key position, forward in particular, especially with Lewis injured.

Melbourne, Collingwood, even the Dogs of 16. Shown that you just need a key forward or two who can do a role, if you have the talent through the middle, defensively or smalls, which are more important overall. Key position does matter, but ends up being more for longevity or sustained success, which will be an off-season focus.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Thing I have noticed about Hawks is the small forward brigade which may also be a reflection of trends in the competition. Its fair to say the value of good small forwards appears much higher than say 5 years back

Yep, would say Hawthorn have one of the best small forward groups in the comp.

Moore, MacDonald, Ginnivan, Watson and Breust is a mosquito fleet

 

[NetworkNerd]

Hawthorn will likely make finals, and are still well off being at their best.

Wait till some of the talent kicks on in Ward, Mackenzie, MacDonald, Watson, Ginnivan, Dear etc.

Raw right now and still performing well, even Day, Newcombe and co have more growing power to become stars, it’s a scary prospect, including more draftees, free agents.

Including a guy like Will McCabe of course, who we haven’t seen but is a smooth moving 197cm key defender to sort the CHB for the next decade.

Assuming we beat the crows this week, we would really need to win one of the GWS or Carlton games to have a realistic chance.

14 wins should be safe. 13 with a poor percentage may not be enough

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Assuming we beat the crows this week, we would really need to win one of the GWS or Carlton games to have a realistic chance.

14 wins should be safe. 13 with a poor percentage may not be enough

Collingwood game turning into a % booster has helped, Richmond and North last two games means two opportunities for more %, which means 13 wins could be realistic. 14 would be a lock. Which would only need 2 of Crows, GWS and Carlton. Crows likely, GWS a chance as is Carlton and only need one. Both sides been out of form recently too.

 

[Vindicater]

Some noise now starting about their small forwards and frees drawn.

Will be interesting to see if that grows louder and we start to see umpires adjust (on purpose or unintentionally) to that.

Teams will certainly adjust which could actually help Hawthorn as it will make it easier for their smalls to break tackles and keep the ball moving.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Some noise now starting about their small forwards and frees drawn.

Will be interesting to see if that grows louder and we start to see umpires adjust (on purpose or unintentionally) to that.

Teams will certainly adjust which could actually help Hawthorn as it will make it easier for their smalls to break tackles and keep the ball moving.

It was said all summer “good luck trying to tackle Hawks smalls, they will challenge you”.

We all know what Ginnivan does, but it’s almost impossible to tackle Watson, because of how damn small he is.
He will consistently get taken high.

 

[Vindicater]

It was said all summer “good luck trying to tackle Hawks smalls, they will challenge you”.

We all know what Ginnivan does, but it’s almost impossible to tackle Watson, because of how damn small he is.
He will consistently get taken high.

I reckon Watson will get hard done by alot as his career goes on. He already flops alittle bit and umpires will start giving defenders alittle leniency against him due to his height.

 

[Philhawk]

I reckon Watson will get hard done by alot as his career goes on. He already flops alittle bit and umpires will start giving defenders alittle leniency against him due to his height.

Problem is, he’ll get hard done by twice a game and just due to his sheer height, will still draw 2 more in the same game.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Except they are still missing a few key elements. No big forwards really that are going to worry anybody and when the pressure is up, smalls generally don't do as well as talls.

They are flying but not the finished package and not ready to contend. Making finals will help though getting experience.

Mitch Lewis does worry teams he just can't get on the park there's a difference. This time next year we could have him not far away from returning and a guy called Jasper Skaife who's got a ready-made body for AFL part of the best 22. That's not including Dear or Chol. Dear has already shown quite a bit for an 18 year old who's to say he doesn't take another step next year and be a really dangerous presence for us. Silly call to say we have nobody that opposition's fear. You blokes absolutely shit yourselves when Sicily went down there 2 weeks ago with a busted shoulder.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Assuming we beat the crows this week, we would really need to win one of the GWS or Carlton games to have a realistic chance.

14 wins should be safe. 13 with a poor percentage may not be enough

I keep hearing poor percentage but we're now not far from the others around us when it comes to percentage and ahead of Essendon. All it takes is a belting win or a belting loss and you either lose ground or gain ground. We made up 5 percent in 1 game. That can easily happen to the others with better percentages. 13 most likely will be enough if we win by enough in those games to keep the percentage ticking over and not lose by more than 4-5 goals if we can help it. Can not concede heavy defeats from here on in.

 

[hawkman]

I keep hearing poor percentage but we're now not far from the others around us when it comes to percentage and ahead of Essendon. All it takes is a belting win or a belting loss and you either lose ground or gain ground. We made up 5 percent in 1 game. That can easily happen to the others with better percentages. 13 most likely will be enough if we win by enough in those games to keep the percentage ticking over and not lose by more than 4-5 goals if we can help it. Can not concede heavy defeats from here on in.

Need to really get our percentage above Port's

 

[sr36]

Some noise now starting about their small forwards and frees drawn.

Will be interesting to see if that grows louder and we start to see umpires adjust (on purpose or unintentionally) to that.

Teams will certainly adjust which could actually help Hawthorn as it will make it easier for their smalls to break tackles and keep the ball moving.

It's a really tough one for the AFL - the Ginni drop or arm raise is easier to handle as you can just not pay it as it's not particularly dangerous if you allow those ones to go high, but the way Moore and Watson in particular stay hunched over and drive their head at the tackler is really dangerous - you've got to get the tackler to pull back or it could get ugly, but you can only do it with a free - and you don't want to encourage it by giving them a free.

 

[Vindicater]

It's a really tough one for the AFL - the Ginni drop or arm raise is easier to handle as you can just not pay it as it's not particularly dangerous if you allow those ones to go high, but the way Moore and Watson in particular stay hunched over and drive their head at the tackler is really dangerous - you've got to get the tackler to pull back or it could get ugly, but you can only do it with a free - and you don't want to encourage it by giving them a free.

If the AFL really wanted to stamp it out they would call Moore and Watson for headbutting.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Need to really get our percentage above Port's

There's every chance the Blues give them a touchup tomorrow night. Even a 5 goal loss and us winning by the same margin puts it neck a neck.

 

[SSSSSS]

It's a really tough one for the AFL - the Ginni drop or arm raise is easier to handle as you can just not pay it as it's not particularly dangerous if you allow those ones to go high, but the way Moore and Watson in particular stay hunched over and drive their head at the tackler is really dangerous - you've got to get the tackler to pull back or it could get ugly, but you can only do it with a free - and you don't want to encourage it by giving them a free.

To be fair with the Wiz he's about 4 feet tall and it's going to be hard for anybody 6 foot+ (the vast majority of AFL players) to lay a legitimate tackle on him, especially when he goes so low and hard at the ball. He's fearless for a little guy.

It's a sport for all shapes and sizes so I don't mind the little guys getting some advantage. All the clever small forwards have it up their trickbag these days.

 

[sr36]

To be fair with the Wiz he's about 4 feet tall and it's going to be hard for anybody 6 foot+ (the vast majority of AFL players) to lay a legitimate tackle on him, especially when he goes so low and hard at the ball. He's fearless for a little guy.

It's a sport for all shapes and sizes so I don't mind the little guys getting some advantage. All the clever small forwards have it up their trickbag these days.

I'm a Watson fan. I think he'll be a star of the game. I've got nothing against players playing for frees. Umpires should be well and truly on top of the Ginni style ones by now and just not pay them - really should be treated like a fend and paid holding the ball. Driving bent over at the tackler is another story and is indeed courageous - it's nuts though - really dangerous - and needs to go - the question is how to umpire it?