Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Dewyyyyy]

I'd like him at the Pies. But you're going to be ridiculously well stocked with the additions. Barrass, Battle and Sicily - tick - done.

In terms of what you've listed there, Battle plays Sicily's role and Sicily who zones off protects the air and sets up with his fantastic leg pushes out a runner. You will have added to your aerial strength big time with this list. But you've had to take out someone more suited to protect the ground and who gets on his bike and spreads the field for your transition. As a Pies fan, I'd be very happy for you to go that way. You've negatively impacted your transition and made our smalls more dangerous, as you've either got an extra in the air or you've got a tall tracking and competing at ground level against smalls.

Sicily is barely if even 190cm. He can play and does the general defender role.

Everything through him, intercept, ball use from d50, run, can go forward, he isn’t going to be playing KPD.

Battle has and does play as a key defender, Barrass is a true key defender and Scrimshaw has been elite all year as a CHB, Battle as the third with Sicily.

The fact is, I don’t see where the runner is going out? Weddle to a wing and still playing defense at times, Amon/Impey still there + depth in Seamus and B MacDonald. Both of Scrimshaw, Sicily run and distribute as does Hardwick. The only changes would be Frost out for Barrass and Weddle to a wing for Battle.

Frost has been told he has a role which is what’s interesting as he may still play KPD with Battle as a forward instead.

But i don’t get where you’re coming from with a “runner” going out, the side benefits from true key defenders, a strong aerial presence and are still elite by foot and elite runners.

The side will be one of the flag favourites in 2025.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

You're still salty Rioli was a better player than Shane Edwards I see

Afl coaches do not agree with your statement

This has long been resolved, do some research

What are you talking about blaisee? Edwards received 210 coaches votes in his 303 games (0.7 per game). Rioli received 280 votes in 189 games (1.65 per game). More in total and more than twice as good on a per game basis.

According to your favourite metric, that makes Rioli twice the player Edwards was. So, which coaches would take Edwards again, and on what basis?

I've also been here long enough to remember when you tried to argue Tambling was better than Franklin (well into their careers).

 

[sr36]

Sicily is barely if even 190cm. He can play and does the general defender role.

Everything through him, intercept, ball use from d50, run, can go forward, he isn’t going to be playing KPD.

Battle has and does play as a key defender, Barrass is a true key defender and Scrimshaw has been elite all year as a CHB, Battle as the third with Sicily.

The fact is, I don’t see where the runner is going out? Weddle to a wing and still playing defense at times, Amon/Impey still there + depth in Seamus and B MacDonald. Both of Scrimshaw, Sicily run and distribute as does Hardwick. The only changes would be Frost out for Barrass and Weddle to a wing for Battle.

Frost has been told he has a role which is what’s interesting as he may still play KPD with Battle as a forward instead.

But i don’t get where you’re coming from with a “runner” going out, the side benefits from true key defenders, a strong aerial presence and are still elite by foot and elite runners.

The side will be one of the flag favourites in 2025.

Height doesn't matter - Sicily zones off to intercept mark - and is brilliant at it. I think you'll be one of the flag favourites too. It will be interesting if you're right - if you play all 4 aerialists, it'll make you a different team - you'll have one hell of defensive wall to lock it in and be bloody hard to kick through. But there will be a ground level and transition cost. You can't change the balance in terms of aerialists without there being a roll on effect.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Chol - pretty poor finals series - is he best 22 next year

 

[Blackhawk42]

With the system purring - are you going to change the mix of roles to one less runner? Are you going to play Scrimshaw in a running role? Battle? Play Sicily, the best intercept defender in the league, up forward?

I wouldn't be changing the structure, or playing guys like Battle and Scrimshaw as runners ahead of the runnersyou've got. Nor would I be moving Sicily forward - except when you're chasing a lead.

Something or someone has to give to add a new KPD and an intercept defender into the team. I think the system is killing it, so that's the last thing I'd touch, so it'd be someone.

What would you do?

B. Hardwick Barass Impey
HB. Scrimshaw Battle Amon
C. Weddle
HF. Sicily

Frost, Gunston and Jiath (who are essentially being replaced in this scenario) become depth players.

This is just a scenario however.

We have a whole pre-season between now and then.

Sicily as a forward option feels like a no-brainer with Lewis out and Gunston ageing. Someone can correct me, but it was written on our board that he played 7 quarters up forward this season and kicked 8 goals. Could have quite easily had 3 in the final quarter of a semi-final and won us the game as well.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Chol - pretty poor finals series - is he best 22 next year

Topped our goal kicking this year.
Lewis missing most of next season with an ACL.

No doubt.

A poor finals series doesn't detract from the great season he had. One of the best forward 50 pressure players in the AFL (as a tall) to go along with 37 goals.
Was never recruited to be the number 1 guy but stood up when he needed to.

 

[sr36]

B. Hardwick Barass Impey
HB. Scrimshaw Battle Amon
C. Weddle
HF. Sicily

Frost, Gunston and Jiath (who are essentially being replaced in this scenario) become depth players.

This is just a scenario however.

We have a whole pre-season between now and then.

Sicily as a forward option feels like a no-brainer with Lewis out and Gunston ageing. Someone can correct me, but it was written on our board that he played 7 quarters up forward this season and kicked 8 goals. Could have quite easily had 3 in the final quarter of a semi-final and won us the game as well.

You'll certainly have options. You could use Sicily like Bombers used to use Hirdy in the second half of his career. I wouldn't be changing his role though - in his current role, he's just about the most valuable player in the league.

 

[hawkman]

Topped our goal kicking this year.
Lewis missing most of next season with an ACL.

No doubt.

A poor finals series doesn't detract from the great season he had. One of the best forward 50 pressure players in the AFL (as a tall) to go along with 37 goals.
Was never recruited to be the number 1 guy but stood up when he needed to.

And he is our 2nd centre square ruck

 

[Gavin Excell]

Topped our goal kicking this year.
Lewis missing most of next season with an ACL.

No doubt.

A poor finals series doesn't detract from the great season he had. One of the best forward 50 pressure players in the AFL (as a tall) to go along with 37 goals.
Was never recruited to be the number 1 guy but stood up when he needed to.

Is he best 22?

 

[Blackhawk42]

Is he best 22?

Absolutely.

Even if he isn't in form, it would be too risky to rely on Gunston and Dear as the only talls.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Absolutely.

Even if he isn't in form, it would be too risky to rely on Gunston and Dear as the only talls.

Mitchell Lewis back would change things?

 

[Blackhawk42]

Mitchell Lewis back would change things?

Depends. He was best 22 all this season, even when Lewis played.

I don't expect we'll see Lewis at all in 2025 though personally.

I also can't predict the future.
Dear, Scaife and Ramsden might become superstars in one off-season and force Chol out of the side for all we know.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Depends. He was best 22 all this season, even when Lewis played.

I don't expect we'll see Lewis at all in 2025 though personally.

I also can't predict the future.
Dear, Scaife and Ramsden might become superstars in one off-season and force Chol out of the side for all we know.

Really out all.2025 Lewis?

What's his injury status?

 

[Blackhawk42]

Really out all.2025 Lewis?

What's his injury status?

Only gut feel.

If he recovers well then he could be the final piece to a premiership tilt if the side look like a top 4 fancy late in the season.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Height doesn't matter - Sicily zones off to intercept mark - and is brilliant at it. I think you'll be one of the flag favourites too. It will be interesting if you're right - if you play all 4 aerialists, it'll make you a different team - you'll have one hell of defensive wall to lock it in and be bloody hard to kick through. But there will be a ground level and transition cost. You can't change the balance in terms of aerialists without there being a roll on effect.

Just because you’re good in the air doesn’t mean you can’t be good at ground level or can’t be fast. It’s an odd concept you’re going with, which is why I brought it up.

Barrass true KPD and is an exception. Brilliant defender and aerially. Battle can defend, go forward and is athletic at ground level. Weddle goes to a wing, Sicily and Scrimshaw brilliant aerially and at ground level aswell as kicks + Amon and Impey from 2024 as true small and running defenders. Hardwick too good defensively and good offensively with his kicking.

The balance is and will be fine.

 

[sr36]

Just because you’re good in the air doesn’t mean you can’t be good at ground level or can’t be fast. It’s an odd concept you’re going with, which is why I brought it up.

Of course you can be all those things, but if you're zoning off to mark aerial balls, you're not covering a small or getting to the balldrop and if you're part of the main structure behind the ball - which the aerial defenders are, you're not usually doing that much transition running - hence the higher minutes those guys usually play as they don't run as much as they keep the structure behind the ball.

Perhaps Mitchell can pull off something different, but Bruzzy for example plays both tall or small for us - but he doesn't play both roles at the same time and when he's playing tall, he's keeping his defensive shape and not outlet running much. So there will most likely be a change of structure and roles in order to play all 4. Put perhaps Sicily is going to play as a swingman. Or perhaps you'll be looking to lock it iforward more with a stronger aerial structure. You'll have options. I just don't like a 4 primarily aerialists structure - and it is how they all play best.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

I don't think Hawthorn will have any issue adding Barass/Battle. If those two replace Gunston/Breust in the 22, there's a net increase in running potential, with a significant boost in on-field flexibility and positional/tactical coverage.

There's rumours Frost is looking elsewhere, but if he can be convinced to stay, I see him playing small and releasing Hardwick forward.

Defence:
Barass plays deepest, taking the opposition #1 KPF (replacing Frost, Blanck still injured)
Battle/Scrimshaw take 2nd/3rd Talls (Battle replaced Weddles late season role, releasing Weddle further up the field).
Frost replaces Hardwick as defensive lockdown small (Hardwick goes forward).
Sicily remains 4th tall/loose interceptor and distributor.
Impey, Amon remain our main rebounding HBF's, with support from D'Ambrosio drifting back from his wing.

Hardwick is still available to switch back if two shutdown smalls are needed, or simply to switch with Battle/Sicily going forward.
When Blanck recovers, I expect he will only be depth now, alongside Serong, Mitchell, etc.

Attack:
Hardwick replaces Breust as the deepest (small) target forward.
Weddle replaces Gunston as the 3rd tall
Chol remains 2nd KPF, 2nd Ruck
Dear remains #1 KPF (Lewis still injured)
Watson, Moore, Ginnivan, Macdonald remain the best small forwards group in the game.

Breust and/or Gunston remain as depth, off the bench or (most likely) as the sub. Weddle brings so much more run than Gunston - him running the wings as 3rd KPF will be a feature next year IMO. If even more marking power is required up front, there is potential for Battle/Sicily to swing forward, swapping with Hardwick.

When Lewis recovers, I expect Hawthorn will shuffle down - Dear to 2nd KPF, Chol to 3rd KPF/2nd Ruck. Weddle can then replace one of the HFF group, releasing MacDonald/Moore into the midfield rotations.

In that setup, whilst carrying an extra tall to 2024, there won't be Gunston/Breust offering virtually zero movement. The freedom to have Weddle run off HFF will help combat the lack of marking power around the ground - plus the reduced pressure on interchanges likely means an extra midfielder running off the bench too, as injury/form coverage comes from other areas of the field. It will be a very hard side to break into, with most roles filled by others on field, and the "23rd man" just being the next best player.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Of course you can be all those things, but if you're zoning off to mark aerial balls, you're not covering a small or getting to the balldrop and if you're part of the main structure behind the ball - which the aerial defenders are, you're not usually doing that much transition running - hence the higher minutes those guys usually play as they don't run as much as they keep the structure behind the ball.

Perhaps Mitchell can pull off something different, but Bruzzy for example plays both tall or small for us - but he doesn't play both roles at the same time and when he's playing tall, he's keeping his defensive shape and not outlet running much. So there will most likely be a change of structure and roles in order to play all 4. Put perhaps Sicily is going to play as a swingman. Or perhaps you'll be looking to lock it iforward more with a stronger aerial structure. You'll have options. I just don't like a 4 primarily aerialists structure - and it is how they all play best.

Most if not all defenders drop off their men nowadays to play third man up when it’s their time to go, some do it more than others but most do.

The way hawthorn ran it this year is how it’ll be ran. 3 key talls, versatility being key with Sicily as the fourth and general defender floating. The three were Scrimshaw and Frost as the CHB and FB then Weddle rotating.

This will be the same with Barrass, Scrimshaw and one of Battle, Weddle or Frost with Battle fwd? Frost dropped? Weddle wing.

Hardwick - Barrass - Impey
Sicily - Scrimshaw - Amon

Battle off the bench

Weddle wing.

 

[Dipper]

I'd like him at the Pies. But you're going to be ridiculously well stocked with the additions. Barrass, Battle and Sicily - tick - done.

In terms of what you've listed there, Battle plays Sicily's role and Sicily who zones off protects the air and sets up with his fantastic leg pushes out a runner. You will have added to your aerial strength big time with this list. But you've had to take out someone more suited to protect the ground and who gets on his bike and spreads the field for your transition. As a Pies fan, I'd be very happy for you to go that way. You've negatively impacted your transition and made our smalls more dangerous, as you've either got an extra in the air or you've got a tall tracking and competing at ground level against smalls.

Barrass comes in for Frost, Battle for Weddle who moves forward.

Same system, same ratio of smalls/ talls at the back.

Weddle free to either run a wing or play off the half forward line.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I don't think Hawthorn will have any issue adding Barass/Battle. If those two replace Gunston/Breust in the 22, there's a net increase in running potential, with a significant boost in on-field flexibility and positional/tactical coverage.

There's rumours Frost is looking elsewhere, but if he can be convinced to stay, I see him playing small and releasing Hardwick forward.

Defence:
Barass plays deepest, taking the opposition #1 KPF (replacing Frost, Blanck still injured)
Battle/Scrimshaw take 2nd/3rd Talls (Battle replaced Weddles late season role, releasing Weddle further up the field).
Frost replaces Hardwick as defensive lockdown small (Hardwick goes forward).
Sicily remains 4th tall/loose interceptor and distributor.
Impey, Amon remain our main rebounding HBF's, with support from D'Ambrosio drifting back from his wing.

Hardwick is still available to switch back if two shutdown smalls are needed, or simply to switch with Battle/Sicily going forward.
When Blanck recovers, I expect he will only be depth now, alongside Serong, Mitchell, etc.

Attack:
Hardwick replaces Breust as the deepest (small) target forward.
Weddle replaces Gunston as the 3rd tall
Chol remains 2nd KPF, 2nd Ruck
Dear remains #1 KPF (Lewis still injured)
Watson, Moore, Ginnivan, Macdonald remain the best small forwards group in the game.

Breust and/or Gunston remain as depth, off the bench or (most likely) as the sub. Weddle brings so much more run than Gunston - him running the wings as 3rd KPF will be a feature next year IMO. If even more marking power is required up front, there is potential for Battle/Sicily to swing forward, swapping with Hardwick.

When Lewis recovers, I expect Hawthorn will shuffle down - Dear to 2nd KPF, Chol to 3rd KPF/2nd Ruck. Weddle can then replace one of the HFF group, releasing MacDonald/Moore into the midfield rotations.

In that setup, whilst carrying an extra tall to 2024, there won't be Gunston/Breust offering virtually zero movement. The freedom to have Weddle run off HFF will help combat the lack of marking power around the ground - plus the reduced pressure on interchanges likely means an extra midfielder running off the bench too, as injury/form coverage comes from other areas of the field. It will be a very hard side to break into, with most roles filled by others on field, and the "23rd man" just being the next best player.

I’d agree but I think my idea whilst similar slightly different.

Defensive structure:

Barrass - deepest defender (#1 KPD) replacing Frost
Scrimshaw - true CHB (#2), rotations with Battle
Battle - Third tall and KPD rotation (#3)
Sicily - General defender (floating)
Impey/Amon - Rebounding half backs.
Hardwick - lockdown small

Swingman capacity:
Battle, Sicily, Hardwick > FWD
Amon > Wing

Attacking structure:

Chol and Dear remain KPF, Weddle as a third tall and wingmen.
Ginnivan/Watson & MacDonald/Moorsmalls.

Lewis back in will shuffle Weddle more predominantly to a wing, MacDonald/Moore an opportunity for more CBA.

Whilst I’m at it.

Midfield structure:

Meek - RUC
Day/Newcombe/Ward/Worpel/Nash/Mackenzie main midfielders.

D’Ambrosio other winger.

Side to look something like.

Bolded = new player
Underlined = new role

R1 2025
Hardwick - Barrass - Impey
Sicily - Scrimshaw - Amon
D’Ambrosio - Day - Weddle
MacDonald - Dear - Moore
Ginnivan - Chol - Watson
Meek - Newcombe - Ward
Mackenzie - Nash - Worpel - Battle - Breust (sub)

Best 22 2025
Hardwick - Barrass - Impey
Sicily - Scrimshaw - Amon
D’Ambrosio - Day - Weddle
Moore - Lewis - MacDonald
Ginnivan - Dear - Moore
Meek - Newcombe - Ward
Chol - Nash - Worpel - Battle - Mackenzie (sub)

 

[sr36]

Most if not all defenders drop off their men nowadays to play third man up when it’s their time to go, some do it more than others but most do.

The way hawthorn ran it this year is how it’ll be ran. 3 key talls, versatility being key with Sicily as the fourth and general defender floating. The three were Scrimshaw and Frost as the CHB and FB then Weddle rotating.

This will be the same with Barrass, Scrimshaw and one of Battle, Weddle or Frost with Battle fwd? Frost dropped? Weddle wing.

Hardwick - Barrass - Impey
Sicily - Scrimshaw - Amon

Battle off the bench

Weddle wing.

That line up is excellent - if you are rotating them through the bench, but most KPD play 90+% game time, because they can, which gives the rest of the team more rotations. You're right and Mitchell will work something out, but it'll be different - all 4 together will make you fantastic at intercept and will work beautifully when it's a plus one in defence, but in trouble when the ball hits the deck or have one of them playing a role that isn't that suited to them, or Sicily swinging forward and back.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

That line up is excellent - if you are rotating them through the bench, but most KPD play 90+% game time, because they can, which gives the rest of the team more rotations. You're right and Mitchell will work something out, but it'll be different - all 4 together will make you fantastic at intercept and will work beautifully when it's a plus one in defence, but in trouble when the ball hits the deck or have one of them playing a role that isn't that suited to them, or Sicily swinging forward and back.

It just won’t happen where it doesn’t work. The structure is the exact same

Frost - Scrimshaw - Weddle - KPD
Sicily - GEN
Impey - Amon - RHB
Hardwick - Lockdown SD

Barrass - Scrimshaw - Battle - KPD
Sicily - GEN
Impey - Amon - RHB
Hardwick - Lockdown SD