Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?

[dazbroncos]

I still think we'll make Finals and due to ladder position (5-8) we'll make the semi finals weekend so 1 -2 finals for us feels right.

Good but just not good enough - and thats ok given what we have to work with curently.

But im all for getting Finals into Bruhn, Ollie Henry, Bowes, Neale, Mannagh, Dempsey, Humphries, Clohesy.

If we miss the 8 then it will be a wasted year - that Finals pressure and step up in level will be good for them to experience.

If we have 4 weeks of our best we can do it but thats highly highly optimistic.

GO Catters

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I still think we'll make Finals and due to ladder position (5-8) we'll make the semi finals weekend so 1 -2 finals for us feels right.

Good but just not good enough - and thats ok given what we have to work with curently.

But im all for getting Finals into Bruhn, Ollie Henry, Bowes, Neale, Mannagh, Dempsey, Humphries, Clohesy.

If we miss the 8 then it will be a wasted year - that Finals pressure and step up in level will be good for them to experience.

If we have 4 weeks of our best we can do it but thats highly highly optimistic.

GO Catters

More than anything getting that taste of finals sets expectations. Huge win if we can get a finals appearance into the guys who've never been there - Dempsey, Humphries, Neale, Henry, maybe a game for Bowes/Clark/Clohesy

Cannot be understated what a win it is to get finals under the belt while in list transition

 

[catempire]

Results have been a little odd, but there is still a group of teams that are in contention and those that are not. Geelong are definitely in the latter.

I would be pleasantly surprised if we won a final.

Geelong are no chance of winning the Flag.

I am not normally a pessimist but this side is a long way off those Geelong sides that fell apart (pre 2022) in finals in years past.

So what will happen this year could be ugly if by some chance we fall into 4th.

I actually think it has been a decent year. We have found a few players and competed well. The disappointing aspect has probably been too many games for Tuohy etc when we could have fast tracked development but overall been a positive season. Clark and Conway for different reasons been a little disappointing. They are both crucial for our overall list build.

This is it for me.

I think they’ve actually managed Tuohy pretty well. He has been “managed” out half a dozen times. If we picked our finals team right now he wouldn’t be in it.

Conway is the biggest disappointment. That kind of injury for a player of his size is terribly concerning.

Uncovering Humphries and the progression of Holmes (wins the Carji?), Dempsey, Bruhn and Neale are all reasons for optimism. Mannagh another good find. I’m confident Clark will be a long term player.

Ultimately we are just a bit unbalanced. If we land Bailey Smith, which seems likely, we can start to get the midfield back in order next year.

 

[BigVic]

Cats can go all the way from 3rd. Sorry for everyone else

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Cats can go all the way from 3rd. Sorry for everyone else View attachment 2069481

Mate you're fishing in the dead sea here

 

[cats_09]

Cats can go all the way from 3rd. Sorry for everyone else View attachment 2069481

The fishing expeditions stop now

As a reminder, here's the warning I gave you on July 15




Final warning - it's time for you to move on, and not interested in seeing further contributions from you in this thread

 

[Klink]

In a normal year id 100 % agree with you but i think you have underestimated how bad the standard of the top 8 is this year. The results show it. We absolutely (if we play like we were at the start of the year and thats a big IF) could win 3-4 and the flag. Any of the 8 teams can this year.

Love the positivity as always PO, and you're right about the top 8 standard and the evenness of the competition. But I think you're overestimating our own capabilities.

We have lost 3-games in Geelong this year (nearly 4 after falling over the line against very average opposition that got crushed on their home deck by 10-goals last week by a team outside the 8). We have been crushed by the Dogs and Blues and their dominant midfields and key forwards.

Right now we will get absolutely demolished by Brisbane and the Dogs. They're a fair way ahead of us and buiding at the right time. We just fell over the line against a very poor team in what should of been a percentage booster.

I know the Lions have had a history of stinking it up in finals as you've alluded to, but last year has shown they're ready to turn the corner. Came back from 5-goals down in the prelim which showed great resilience and were leading in the GF with 3 minutes to go against an MCG tennant with a huge following. Previous Lions outfit would have wilted and gone quietly in that prelim, but they galvanised and with a bit of luck beat the Pies.

Like us in 2022, it doesn't take much to turn it around. We had some pretty horrendous finals series outcomes between 2014 - 2019. Past results aren't always the best indicator for future outcomes in this sport.

I think Lions are raging favourites; only Dogs (or Blues if they can get their act together) can stop them IMO.

 

[dazbroncos]

Cats can go all the way from 3rd. Sorry for everyone else

If you havent been told already, you are done here.

Dont come back.

Go Fish the main board or the Pies board for likes and laughs.

GO Catters

 

[CHAWKTS]

Love the positivity as always PO, and you're right about the top 8 standard and the evenness of the competition. But I think you're overestimating our own capabilities.

We have lost 3-games in Geelong this year (nearly 4 after falling over the line against very average opposition that got crushed on their home deck by 10-goals last week by a team outside the 8). We have been crushed by the Dogs and Blues and their dominant midfields and key forwards.

Right now we will get absolutely demolished by Brisbane and the Dogs. They're a fair way ahead of us and buiding at the right time. We just fell over the line against a very poor team in what should of been a percentage booster.

I know the Lions have had a history of stinking it up in finals as you've alluded to, but last year has shown they're ready to turn the corner. Came back from 5-goals down in the prelim which showed great resilience and were leading in the GF with 3 minutes to go against an MCG tennant with a huge following. Previous Lions outfit would have wilted and gone quietly in that prelim, but they galvanised and with a bit of luck beat the Pies.

Like us in 2022, it doesn't take much to turn it around. We had some pretty horrendous finals series outcomes between 2014 - 2019. Past results aren't always the best indicator for future outcomes in this sport.

I think Lions are raging favourites; only Dogs (or Blues if they can get their act together) can stop them IMO.

all of that makes sense....BUT...we aren't playing them "right now"...we will meet them maybe in 5-6 weeks from here which is frankly an eternity (swans and Carlton were certain GF 6 weeks ago...Brisbane was trying to claw back...Bevo and Hinkly was not going to last the season!!)...

I think more than ever it is a matter of holding on week by week and trying to be there. Might not happen but I would not be surprised if Crows beats the Dogs and burst the bubble...Port could also lose the showdown... but I do agree that Brisbane have that Cats 22 feel about them (but even then we almost got done in the preliminary).

My confidence is fragile for sure...and I suspect could be crushed next week if have a bad loss in Free (which you would bet will happen) - but if we do manage to make top 4 we could just as well win first week away and everything changes based on 1 game!

 

[Kitcat]

all of that makes sense....BUT...we aren't playing them "right now"...we will meet them maybe in 5-6 weeks from here which is frankly an eternity (swans and Carlton were certain GF 6 weeks ago...Brisbane was trying to claw back...Bevo and Hinkly was not going to last the season!!)...

I think more than ever it is a matter of holding on week by week and trying to be there. Might not happen but I would not be surprised if Crows beats the Dogs and burst the bubble...Port could also lose the showdown... but I do agree that Brisbane have that Cats 22 feel about them (but even then we almost got done in the preliminary).

My confidence is fragile for sure...and I suspect could be crushed next week if have a bad loss in Free (which you would bet will happen) - but if we do manage to make top 4 we could just as well win first week away and everything changes based on 1 game!

We almost got done in the QF. We won the Preliminary by 12 goals against Brisbane.
I agree anything can happen this season and we just have to get the best ladder position we can for the finals campaign.
If we could beat Freo, we then have 3 winnable games that would put us close to 2nd.

 

[Kitcat]

We almost got done in the QF. We won the Preliminary by 12 goals against Brisbane.
I agree anything can happen this season and we just have to get the best ladder position we can for the finals campaign.
If we could beat Freo, we then have 3 winnable games that would put us close to 2nd.

2 winnable games.

 

[Klink]

all of that makes sense....BUT...we aren't playing them "right now"...we will meet them maybe in 5-6 weeks from here which is frankly an eternity (swans and Carlton were certain GF 6 weeks ago...Brisbane was trying to claw back...Bevo and Hinkly was not going to last the season!!)...

I think more than ever it is a matter of holding on week by week and trying to be there. Might not happen but I would not be surprised if Crows beats the Dogs and burst the bubble...Port could also lose the showdown... but I do agree that Brisbane have that Cats 22 feel about them (but even then we almost got done in the preliminary).

My confidence is fragile for sure...and I suspect could be crushed next week if have a bad loss in Free (which you would bet will happen) - but if we do manage to make top 4 we could just as well win first week away and everything changes based on 1 game!

All very logical. My expectations are low personally, I think if we can win one final, it's been a great year.

We're very fortunate to barrack for such a great club, and the fact we're still in the mix is testament to the great management of this organisation.

Hope is a wonderful thing

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Results have been a little odd, but there is still a group of teams that are in contention and those that are not. Geelong are definitely in the latter.

I would be pleasantly surprised if we won a final.

Geelong are no chance of winning the Flag.

I am not normally a pessimist but this side is a long way off those Geelong sides that fell apart (pre 2022) in finals in years past.

So what will happen this year could be ugly if by some chance we fall into 4th.

I actually think it has been a decent year. We have found a few players and competed well. The disappointing aspect has probably been too many games for Tuohy etc when we could have fast tracked development but overall been a positive season. Clark and Conway for different reasons been a little disappointing. They are both crucial for our overall list build.

Disagree. Everyone said syd were certs now they are off the rails.
Carlton were everyones 2nd pick now they might barely make the 8.
A month ago the dogs were losing to north and everyone wanted to sack bevo. Now they are flying.
Freo are supposedly dominating then they are losing to teams like essendon.
Gws are probably the best team on paper but their form is all over the shop.
Port are equally inconsistent and have ken which will mean they wont go all the way.
Bris are the only ones with any consistent form but a soft ish draw flatters them and their finals record in recent years shows they cant be trusted.

The only certainty is that theres no certainty who will win it this year. I doubt we will on probabilities but its absolutely do able that we can.
Whoever flukes a really good month will.

 

[Klink]

Results have been a little odd, but there is still a group of teams that are in contention and those that are not. Geelong are definitely in the latter.

I would be pleasantly surprised if we won a final.

Geelong are no chance of winning the Flag.

I am not normally a pessimist but this side is a long way off those Geelong sides that fell apart (pre 2022) in finals in years past.

So what will happen this year could be ugly if by some chance we fall into 4th.

I actually think it has been a decent year. We have found a few players and competed well. The disappointing aspect has probably been too many games for Tuohy etc when we could have fast tracked development but overall been a positive season. Clark and Conway for different reasons been a little disappointing. They are both crucial for our overall list build.

Good post. I feel some teams have gone to a new level (Brisbane, Dogs and maybe even Port), I don't think we can get to the level of the first two mentioned. I'm still expecting Port to fall over, and every chance we can roll them in an EF.

It's been a weird year but there are a couple of teams starting to separate themselves from the rest. We of course beat the Dogs and Lions earlier this year, however, it is as CS continually says "It's not who you play, it's when you play them."

I'd be rapt if we played Port or Carlton in an EF and knocked them out. That would be fun. Can't see us winning four finals (assuming we don't make top 4), which potentially might include multiple interstate trips..

 

[Play it Sam]

I must admit to being overly invested in the fate of other teams.
You can tow the party line of we must win and not worry about other results, but that's now a misnomer with the closeness of ladder positioning. It's all going to be co-dependant.
Every game is spent barracking for the team that advantages us best, and hoping the games are close to prevent percentage boosts. Also searching for the bonus of Dawks losses if it doesn't affect us.
That's huge fun for the next few weekends, testing the mathematical skills over a glass of wine.

 

[Mr Meow]

I must admit to being overly invested in the fate of other teams.
You can tow the party line of we must win and not worry about other results, but that's now a misnomer with the closeness of ladder positioning. It's all going to be co-dependant.
Every game is spent barracking for the team that advantages us best, and hoping the games are close to prevent percentage boosts. Also searching for the bonus of Dawks losses if it doesn't affect us.
That's huge fun for the next few weekends, testing the mathematical skills over a glass of wine.

Nah that's normal us mere mortals (supporters) naturally have a big interest in other club's results.

With the players and coaches you can argue it's a distraction and therefore they are better off not obsessing over it. But we aren't them.

 

[Play it Sam]

Nah that's normal us mere mortals (supporters) naturally have a big interest in other club's results.

With the players and coaches you can argue it's a distraction and therefore they are better off not obsessing over it. But we aren't them.

Too true. But there's a reason I love some of the BF numbers boffins to chart it for us. IBM SPSS was my nemesis.
Including your good self of course.

 

[Mr Meow]

I’m keen to see what we do this week, but I’ll say 2-2, dropping Freo, St.K= 14-9, 6-7th

And now?

 

[Vdubs]

And now?

Fwiw, owaat, but that was an orgasmic win

 

[Play it Sam]

And now?

Not sure what's worse, the eternal optimist or the constant pessimist.
I'm paid to be the former, it's a hard (but happy) habit to break.
Vdubs is a realist, so spares himself disappointment.

 

[Mr Meow]

Not sure what's worse, the eternal optimist or the constant pessimist.
I'm paid to be the former, it's a hard (but happy) habit to break.
Vdubs is a realist, so spares himself disappointment.

Nah Vdubs even admits he is deliberately pessimistic as far as offering "devil's advocate" opinions on why each team may beat us or be better than us. More so than pure realism.

I'm not so optimistic as to really declare us premiership favourites at any stage since 2011. I just don't think we're rubbish, and when we are in flow we can be competitive. Our application has simply been flakey the last couple of years - hence choppy form lines.

Still, to be sitting in the top 4 at this stage is a remarkable effort for what I'd call a decent enough but flawed list. And of course it's only flawed as we haven't had top draft picks for an age while we have a dozen great players reaching the end of their career after a bunch have already parted.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Bc gws port freo and wbd all play each other in the run home if we win both our games 64 pts should get us 4th at worst.
(Bris wbd and freo now cant finish ahead of us if we win both games)
IF we gain enough % in the next 2 weeks we will probably finish just ahead of port and gws and get 2nd spot but it will be tight.
Getting a margin at marvel next week is crucial.

 

[Cataholic]

Where are we at next week....lose Bruhn, get SDK?

 

[Play it Sam]

Nah Vdubs even admits he is deliberately pessimistic as far as offering "devil's advocate" opinions on why each team may beat us or be better than us. More so than pure realism.

I'm not so optimistic as to really declare us premiership favourites at any stage since 2011. I just don't think we're rubbish, and when we are in flow we can be competitive. Our application has simply been flakey the last couple of years - hence choppy form lines.

Still, to be sitting in the top 4 at this stage is a remarkable effort for what I'd call a decent enough but flawed list. And of course it's only flawed as we haven't had top draft picks for an age while we have a dozen great players reaching the end of their career after a bunch have already parted.

As Danger said they're still learning and building. They gutzed out that win, probably did them more good than thrashing the purple, given the limitations that came about. You're right, it's all about flow, so I'm hoping we get a settled team in the next two weeks- the inclusion of Humphries and Mannagh, the return of Bowes, means they are still finding balance and experience, but should be cherry ripe soon.

 

[Play it Sam]

Bc gws port freo and wbd all play each other in the run home if we win both our games 64 pts should get us 4th at worst.
(Bris wbd and freo now cant finish ahead of us if we win both games)
IF we gain enough % in the next 2 weeks we will probably finish just ahead of port and gws and get 2nd spot but it will be tight.
Getting a margin at marvel next week is crucial.

Thanks for that- love it spelled out about now.
Eternal optimist here- but even I know STK have the capacity to upset us (and only us)
As an avid ladder watcher I hope we pulverise them.