Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[Balony_pony16]

Yeah definitely, personally I think Brodie looks the goods, and i'd have him ahead of Oliver at this stage, Parish v McGrath is super close though.

I just think that if Brodie & Oliver lined up on each other at the same age and over time that it would be Brodie that would have his hands full. I think it has been a long time since a player like Oliver has come along that is so explosive at the contested ball yet so clean. I will admit being a bit of a Oliver fanboy though haha...but I personally think Oliver has all the tools to become a Michael Voss clone

 

[Knightmare]

G'day Knight,
Was just wondering what your thoughts at this stage are about ash krakouer and josh Hannon getting drafted?

Neither appear realistic chances given neither received a national or state combine invite.

Both are fine TAC Cup players though that's a different thing to being picked up through the draft.

Krakauer will have a hard time getting drafted due to the quantity of midfielders and small forwards this year.

Hannon on the other hand is a reasonable tall but with talls it's all about superiority of talent by position and there are other talls I favour.

Both and to a greater extent Hannon I wouldn't mind seeing receive another year in the TAC Cup to develop as they're good enough to continue their footballing. But to be drafted, you have to be among the better few by position, and neither are.

So which rays players do you believe? (possibly an order of chance to land on a list)

--Should be picked--
1. Battle
2. Poholke
--More likely than not picked--
3. McCarthy
4. Morrish
5. Alsop
--Possible but against the odds picks--
6. De Wit
7. Fowler

Knightmare I dont know if you've done this before, but how would you compare this years draft with last years? From the looks of it I think last years draft looks a bit better overall in the top end, but this draft is a lot deeper.

Just my casual eyes would say something like; im going to ignore Academy picks,

1-2 Weitering & Schache
3-5 McLuggage, Brodie, McGrath
6-11 Francis, Parish, Weideman, Oliver, McKay, Curnow
12-13 SPS, Ainsworth
14-20 2017 5-9 range
20-25 2016 10-15 Range
25-35 2017 10-20 Range

So on etc etc.

And then, considering that, how do you compare next years draft? I have always been against comparing future drafts as its impossible to say, look at how much Macreadie has dropped this year or how high McGrath has bolted in the past 10 weeks or so, it so volatile, but how do you feel about it?

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I don't think you're far off the mark (excluding academy players). SPS + Ainsworth I'd expect would fit in the 6-11 range based on club views as to where they would be picked, perhaps after Parish or if not then after Oliver at least.

But that's a rough feel for the top end.

It's made over-complicated by clubs having differing list needs which can distort things so it's not a practical breakdown looking much further down the draft.

Perhaps in hindsight when we know where all these guys have been picked, a breakdown of this nature could be easier to do as we're still not sure how this year will go with trade week still to come and movement of multiple inside the top 10 picks expected this year.

I like these comparsions and will be interested in how Knightmare rates the 2 drafts. But Oliver is a exceptional contested ball player that I think would be very high in the current draft, and Parish is just so skillful compared to McGrath.

My own personal power rankings always differs somewhat to the eventual draft order.

eg. Last year I had
1. Hopper
2. Oliver
3. Weitering (in hindsight would be my clear number one - looking frankly like a once in a generation key defender)

I continue to stand my the strength of my evaluation of Hopper and Oliver as those two top midfielders but even now there are a lot of players I rate very differently to where they were drafted last year, and likely where those in this years draft will be picked this year.

McGrath who may push for pick 1-3 for eg. may all things said and done be my 3rd highest rated Sandringham Dragon (with Setterfield and Taranto for me currently equal with McGrath).

 

[hicksyshawks]

Neither appear realistic chances given neither received a national or state combine invite.

Both are fine TAC Cup players though that's a different thing to being picked up through the draft.

Krakauer will have a hard time getting drafted due to the quantity of midfielders and small forwards this year.

Hannon on the other hand is a reasonable tall but with talls it's all about superiority of talent by position and there are other talls I favour.

Both and to a greater extent Hannon I wouldn't mind seeing receive another year in the TAC Cup to develop as they're good enough to continue their footballing. But to be drafted, you have to be among the better few by position, and neither are.



--Should be picked--
1. Battle
2. Poholke
--More likely than not picked--
3. McCarthy
4. Morrish
5. Alsop
--Possible but against the odds picks--
6. De Wit
7. Fowler



I don't think you're far off the mark (excluding academy players). SPS + Ainsworth I'd expect would fit in the 6-11 range based on club views as to where they would be picked, perhaps after Parish or if not then after Oliver at least.

But that's a rough feel for the top end.

It's made over-complicated by clubs having differing list needs which can distort things so it's not a practical breakdown looking much further down the draft.

Perhaps in hindsight when we know where all these guys have been picked, a breakdown of this nature could be easier to do as we're still not sure how this year will go with trade week still to come and movement of multiple inside the top 10 picks expected this year.



My own personal power rankings always differs somewhat to the eventual draft order.

eg. Last year I had
1. Hopper
2. Oliver
3. Weitering (in hindsight would be my clear number one - looking frankly like a once in a generation key defender)

I continue to stand my the strength of my evaluation of Hopper and Oliver as those two top midfielders but even now there are a lot of players I rate very differently to where they were drafted last year, and likely where those in this years draft will be picked this year.

McGrath who may push for pick 1-3 for eg. may all things said and done be my 3rd highest rated Sandringham Dragon (with Setterfield and Taranto for me currently equal with McGrath).

Reece Piper???

 

[Knightmare]

Reece Piper???

Another state screening invite. Could fit 6-8 on that list.

 

[coniglio_number1]

Will shane Nelson finally be drafted?

 

[Knightmare]

Will shane Nelson finally be drafted?

An AFL opportunity for Nelson is long overdue.

Not a state combine invite so looking unlikely.

It would have to be a Sam Dwyer situation with Nelson where he is picked up as a ready made situational selection with a view to fill a need now.

 

[jakemelksham17]

Love your work knightmare, this might be a bit off topic but in hindsight how would rank the 2015 draftees, it looks as though weitering is shaping up to be possibly the best player in the draft whilst players like parish and even a Francis might be pushing for a top five ranking. What are your thoughts mate?

 

[Knightmare]

Love your work knightmare, this might be a bit off topic but in hindsight how would rank the 2015 draftees, it looks as though weitering is shaping up to be possibly the best player in the draft whilst players like parish and even a Francis might be pushing for a top five ranking. What are your thoughts mate?

You have to change your order every year as you see more, players develop and others don't.

As a quick (revised) top 15 I'd go with:
1. Jacob Weitering
2. Jacob Hopper
3. Clayton Oliver
4. Callum Mills
5. Joshua Schache
6. Matthew Kennedy
7. Darcy Parish
8. Eric Hipwood
9. Harrison Himmelberg
10. Josh Dunkley
11. Brayden Fiorini
12. Ryan Clarke
13. Aaron Francis
14. Rhys Mathieson
15. Darcy Tucker

 

[briztoon]

Knightmare I dont know if you've done this before, but how would you compare this years draft with last years? From the looks of it I think last years draft looks a bit better overall in the top end, but this draft is a lot deeper.

Just my casual eyes would say something like; im going to ignore Academy picks,

1-2 Weitering & Schache
3-5 McLuggage, Brodie, McGrath
6-11 Francis, Parish, Weideman, Oliver, McKay, Curnow
12-13 SPS, Ainsworth
14-20 2017 5-9 range
20-25 2016 10-15 Range
25-35 2017 10-20 Range

So on etc etc.

And then, considering that, how do you compare next years draft? I have always been against comparing future drafts as its impossible to say, look at how much Macreadie has dropped this year or how high McGrath has bolted in the past 10 weeks or so, it so volatile, but how do you feel about it?


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Cal Twomey rated his combined top 10 from this years and last years draft a one or two episodes ago.
Cals top 4 were all 2015 draftees, with McCluggage coming in at 5th as the first 2016 draftee. Can't remember the order from memory, but it 5 from each year. It was either top 7 or top 8 for all the 2015.

If you follow the media draft analysts, there's not even a consensus top 3 yet. McCluggae is almost unanimous as number 1. Otherwise one analyst will have Brodie at 2 while another will have Bowes at 2. Some one will have McGrath at 2 and Ainsworth at 4, while another has them the other way around, and then the both have Bowes and Brodie at different spots in the top 5 as well.

 

[briztoon]

Knightmare, wondering if the rise of Jack Scrimshaw in to top 5 to 10 range might be the result of people looking for the next Bontempelli and seeing stuff that may not be there, or may not be up to the abilities/skills of Bont.

 

[Gollo]

You have to change your order every year as you see more, players develop and others don't.

As a quick (revised) top 15 I'd go with:
1. Jacob Weitering
2. Jacob Hopper
3. Clayton Oliver
4. Callum Mills
5. Joshua Schache
6. Matthew Kennedy
7. Darcy Parish
8. Eric Hipwood
9. Harrison Himmelberg
10. Josh Dunkley
11. Brayden Fiorini
12. Ryan Clarke
13. Aaron Francis
14. Rhys Mathieson
15. Darcy Tucker

Jade Gresham??? Been immense since rd 10, pushing into the midfield as well. I'd have him easily top 10. Rated him from the beginning.

 

[Knightmare]

Cal Twomey rated his combined top 10 from this years and last years draft a one or two episodes ago.
Cals top 4 were all 2015 draftees, with McCluggage coming in at 5th as the first 2016 draftee. Can't remember the order from memory, but it 5 from each year. It was either top 7 or top 8 for all the 2015.

If you follow the media draft analysts, there's not even a consensus top 3 yet. McCluggae is almost unanimous as number 1. Otherwise one analyst will have Brodie at 2 while another will have Bowes at 2. Some one will have McGrath at 2 and Ainsworth at 4, while another has them the other way around, and then the both have Bowes and Brodie at different spots in the top 5 as well.

I don't consume other Australian sports media (unless people point out - hey look here) so I concede I am oblivious to Cal's combined top 10 rating from last years and this years draft. I much prefer consuming American sports and take inspiration from several different US media people.

My early feel is McCluggage and McGrath are probably going top two. Bowes, Brodie, Ainsworth and SPS likely follow in some order. Then someone like Taranto could push up into that group pretty easily or Marshall if a club needs a key forward. The issue this year is clubs with top 10 picks are open to trading and several of those picks look set to move hands. So any phantom draft completed now will look very different after trade week with clubs rating these players differently due to the evenness up the top end.

Knightmare, wondering if the rise of Jack Scrimshaw in to top 5 to 10 range might be the result of people looking for the next Bontempelli and seeing stuff that may not be there, or may not be up to the abilities/skills of Bont.

A few bigfooty posters have been thinking about Scrimshaw given his height as a next Bontempelli but having watched Scrimshaw this year, he does not share Bontempelli's contested ball game or explosiveness which makes him a contrasting player. I haven't discussed this topic with any other recruiters but I can't imagine any would be thinking of Scrimshaw in this context.

He may feature somewhere around pick 10 on the basis of the hurt factor he has at his height - kicking long off one or two steps and finding meaningful targets, navigating through traffic with some clever sidesteps and timely changes of direction, intercepting off hb etc.

Jade Gresham??? Been immense since rd 10, pushing into the midfield as well. I'd have him easily top 10. Rated him from the beginning.

I was thinking about Graham at 15, eventually settling for Tucker given the strength of his form this season.

Smalls (sub 180cm mids particularly) generally have limited upside. They start their careers quickly typically making them low risk and often good value picks, not needing to learn how to play at their height, being more used to their bodies and knowing how to play in their bodies. But then they don't have that same development coming later on to reach more extreme heights as you often see with the likes of a Bontempelli who as a junior still was growing into his body and with each season continues to work it out a little more so that he can use his dynamic power more effectively, while his physical and athletic development continues.

 

[briztoon]

Smalls (sub 180cm mids particularly) generally have limited upside. They start their careers quickly typically making them low risk and often good value picks, not needing to learn how to play at their height, being more used to their bodies and knowing how to play in their bodies. But then they don't have that same development coming later on to reach more extreme heights as you often see with the likes of a Bontempelli who as a junior still was growing into his body and with each season continues to work it out a little more so that he can use his dynamic power more effectively, while his physical and athletic development continues.

Great observation. Do think much of Ainsworth's and McGrath's success is down to being more physically developed at their height and used to their bodies?
And do you think they'll plateau pretty early in their careers in the AFL.

I've been pretty down on Brodie and Bowes compared to most (and to a lesser extent McCluggage - but much of my concern with McCluggae centres around the physicality of the AFL and whether his frame can carry an extra 7-8kg's.), as my concern centres around their lack of speed and power, compared to Ainsworth and McGrath who appear to attack the ball harder and have that extra speed to break away from the contest or create early separation.

 

[avishka5]

You have to change your order every year as you see more, players develop and others don't.

As a quick (revised) top 15 I'd go with:
1. Jacob Weitering
2. Jacob Hopper
3. Clayton Oliver
4. Callum Mills
5. Joshua Schache
6. Matthew Kennedy
7. Darcy Parish
8. Eric Hipwood
9. Harrison Himmelberg
10. Josh Dunkley
11. Brayden Fiorini
12. Ryan Clarke
13. Aaron Francis
14. Rhys Mathieson
15. Darcy Tucker

Not rating cole anywhere near them but do you think he has the capability to become a midfielder at AFL level? I watched him a few times for EP (on tv) and his hands, composure and ability to move through traffic kinda excites me. Simpson started trying jackson nelson through the midfield midway through the year but i would rather see Cole developed into a mid. He also has a bit of pace and our midfield lacks pace.

 

[Knightmare]

Great observation. Do think much of Ainsworth's and McGrath's success is down to being more physically developed at their height and used to their bodies?
And do you think they'll plateau pretty early in their careers in the AFL.

I've been pretty down on Brodie and Bowes compared to most (and to a lesser extent McCluggage - but much of my concern with McCluggae centres around the physicality of the AFL and whether his frame can carry an extra 7-8kg's.), as my concern centres around their lack of speed and power, compared to Ainsworth and McGrath who appear to attack the ball harder and have that extra speed to break away from the contest or create early separation.

Ainsworth and McGrath are both by position freak athletes. Ainsworth has a ridiculous vertical and McGrath has the acceleration and vertical.

Ainsworth and McGrath both have the body size and compositions already where they feel somewhere closer to what they'll become compared to many of the other mids - Brodie, Setterfield, McCluggage etc who for me feel like they have greater growth. Ainsworth and McGrath can be round one, year one players and best 22 players who contribute well from season one. But who they'll be in five years time while very good and more certain. It depends on whether you want to take the chance on the potentially greater upside in some other types who have the height/body types that still have greater scope to grow and develop a fair bit.

If I'm looking at greatest season one impact. McGrath probably is that guy. For greatest career impact I'll go McCluggage given his production, mix of attributes and rate of improvement which all suggest he'll be close to if not as good as any in this draft.

Not rating cole anywhere near them but do you think he has the capability to become a midfielder at AFL level? I watched him a few times for EP (on tv) and his hands, composure and ability to move through traffic kinda excites me. Simpson started trying jackson nelson through the midfield midway through the year but i would rather see Cole developed into a mid. He also has a bit of pace and our midfield lacks pace.

Cole has had a reasonably good season off half back. He is a plausible midfielder but time and development will tell the story. Will need to improve his contested ball winning to take that step.

I'm probably with you that I'd keep Nelson back. I'm not sure yet where he best fits. Probably half back and see if he can establish himself there.

Cole similarly I'm not yet sure where he fits best. A trial through the midfield, something like Nelson this year might be worth seeing but overall I'd want some stronger bodies who can win it at the coalface around him if he is to spend any time through there.

 

[avishka5]

Cole has had a reasonably good season off half back. He is a plausible midfielder but time and development will tell the story. Will need to improve his contested ball winning to take that step.

I'm probably with you that I'd keep Nelson back. I'm not sure yet where he best fits. Probably half back and see if he can establish himself there.

Cole similarly I'm not yet sure where he fits best. A trial through the midfield, something like Nelson this year might be worth seeing but overall I'd want some stronger bodies who can win it at the coalface around him if he is to spend any time through there.

Yeah I think he has the ability to win his own ball. From what I saw so far, he never shy away from a contest and often went in and won it. He would make a better rotation through the middle than someone like a gaff or masten.

 

[avishka5]

is andrew related to Jordan gallucci?

 

[Gunstall555]

You have to change your order every year as you see more, players develop and others don't.

As a quick (revised) top 15 I'd go with:
1. Jacob Weitering
2. Jacob Hopper
3. Clayton Oliver
4. Callum Mills
5. Joshua Schache
6. Matthew Kennedy
7. Darcy Parish
8. Eric Hipwood
9. Harrison Himmelberg
10. Josh Dunkley
11. Brayden Fiorini
12. Ryan Clarke
13. Aaron Francis
14. Rhys Mathieson
15. Darcy Tucker

So no Burton?

 

[Knightmare]

is andrew related to Jordan gallucci?

Don't know.

I'm not aware of any relationship with Andrew coming from the Calder region and Gallucci Eastern.

So no Burton?

Burton would be in the top 20 mix and probably just inside there. Not top 15 for mine. As a similarly sized general forward I'd take Charlie Curnow before Burton who also just missed my top 15.

 

[Gunstall555]

Don't know.

I'm not aware of any relationship with Andrew coming from the Calder region and Gallucci Eastern.



Burton would be in the top 20 mix and probably just inside there. Not top 15 for mine. As a similarly sized general forward I'd take Charlie Curnow before Burton who also just missed my top 15.

So you didn't watch Hawthorn vs Collingwood in round 23 then? Played Stratton's role in defence for us and played damn well. Kid will be a star and is up there with the best of this draft, wouldn't surprise me if he became the best of them.

 

[Knightmare]

So you didn't watch Hawthorn vs Collingwood in round 23 then? Played Stratton's role in defence for us and played damn well. Kid will be a star and is up there with the best of this draft, wouldn't surprise me if he became the best of them.

Played his role down back in that game but was hardly best on ground.

Overall he hasn't looked out of place and looks like he will have an AFL career.

He just hasn't struck me as a star yet. He rather looks like a component to a team.

 

[Gunstall555]

Played his role down back in that game but was hardly best on ground.

Overall he hasn't looked out of place and looks like he will have an AFL career.

He just hasn't struck me as a star yet. He rather looks like a component to a team.

I said he starred, I didn't say he was best on ground.

I find it interesting that you rate Curnow higher, from what I see Burton in a better mark, better kick, better vision - and is a leader. Curnow is not a leader and never will be.

That was Burton's 3rd game of AFL football ever against Collingwood. Burton had 13 weeks out with a plate being removed from his leg, first game back played well in defence, the second game back he kicked 3 goals 5 as a forward and was picked in the senior team and retained his spot for the rest of the year. Rarely do young players get that sort of run in the Hawthorn team, and this kid did it after not playing footy for 2 years, playing a couple of VFL games, missing 13 weeks and playing 2 more games.

He was considered a strong chance to go # 1 in the draft until he was struck down with injury. Would have definitely gone in the top 5.

 

[brian455]

Knightmare- who are your top 5 mature agers going into this draft?

 

[coniglio_number1]

I said he starred, I didn't say he was best on ground.

I find it interesting that you rate Curnow higher, from what I see Burton in a better mark, better kick, better vision - and is a leader. Curnow is not a leader and never will be.

That was Burton's 3rd game of AFL football ever against Collingwood. Burton had 13 weeks out with a plate being removed from his leg, first game back played well in defence, the second game back he kicked 3 goals 5 as a forward and was picked in the senior team and retained his spot for the rest of the year. Rarely do young players get that sort of run in the Hawthorn team, and this kid did it after not playing footy for 2 years, playing a couple of VFL games, missing 13 weeks and playing 2 more games.

He was considered a strong chance to go # 1 in the draft until he was struck down with injury. Would have definitely gone in the top 5.

HAWTHORN HAVE THE BEST PLAYERS EVER!!!!!!


Happy?

 

[footylover18]

I said he starred, I didn't say he was best on ground.

I find it interesting that you rate Curnow higher, from what I see Burton in a better mark, better kick, better vision - and is a leader. Curnow is not a leader and never will be.

That was Burton's 3rd game of AFL football ever against Collingwood. Burton had 13 weeks out with a plate being removed from his leg, first game back played well in defence, the second game back he kicked 3 goals 5 as a forward and was picked in the senior team and retained his spot for the rest of the year. Rarely do young players get that sort of run in the Hawthorn team, and this kid did it after not playing footy for 2 years, playing a couple of VFL games, missing 13 weeks and playing 2 more games.

He was considered a strong chance to go # 1 in the draft until he was struck down with injury. Would have definitely gone in the top 5.

so you come into KM thread, ask him a question and then proceed to shut down his answer. go start your own thread . noone cares what you think. perhaps start it on the Hawks board where u can all fap over your own players.