Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[zookota123]

Bailey Smith - Xavier/Sandringham
Will go top 10.
McGrath v3.0
A. Brayshaw v2.0
Not enough weapons or hurt factor for you, but he will be on stage this time next year.
Bookmark it.

Sam Walsh is the one I'm getting very excited for next year. Jye Caldwell isn't too bad either. My brother did state boxing with him, he is a very talented and athletic kid who needs to be looked at.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Bailey Smith - Xavier/Sandringham
Will go top 10.
McGrath v3.0
A. Brayshaw v2.0
Not enough weapons or hurt factor for you, but he will be on stage this time next year.
Bookmark it.

I hear you blokes have a couple of others that might be on the stage too? Some tall kids?

 

[HedgeFund]

I hear you blokes have a couple of others that might be on the stage too? Some tall kids?

Maybe

If there are any other programs who want a couple of kids around 195cm tall, we are open to offers.

Currently running with 4 over 200cm and another 5 over 195cm in the squad. All are actually talented footy players as opposed to “converts” from basketball.

Ridiculous.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Maybe

If there are any other programs who want a couple of kids around 195cm tall, we are open to offers.

Currently running with 4 over 200cm and another 5 over 195cm in the squad. All are actually talented footy players as opposed to “converts” from basketball.

Ridiculous.

Without a glance, probably Bendigo might be worth a call . I mean, Warde at 189cm did well this year but... I guess they've got the Grace brothers. But traditionally short. The Rebels will be a bit taller now after the rolled with 188 + 189cm defenders.

What a tough life it is having multiple KPP/ruck options.

 

[HedgeFund]

What a tough life it is having multiple KPP/ruck options.

Even better when they kick set shots at the critical moments of big games (I think I can crack joke about that now )

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Even better when they kick set shots at the critical moments of big games (I think I can crack joke about that now )

Fair few fist pumps in your box after the mark thanks to Fox Footy camera work. Lucky you kept a straight face though. It happens, hate to be in Joel's shoes but he's not the first and won't be the last. Now he's on the Swans list he can make a good fist of it.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare, what were the knocks on Thomas Murphy from Dandenong? Looking at his numbers, highlights and testing I just can't see why he'd slip to pick #4 in the rookie draft. His kicking is ridiculous, he's quick, apparently has great endurance, averaged about 19 touches a game in the TAC cup, played VFL footy, and shows great courage with his marking from what I've seen. Just seems strange that he'd still be available??

He's a good overager and a good rookie pick. Great intercept mark. Capable 1v1. He's a good mover - has pace and agility and takes on the game and can get around players - good evasiveness. Has some smarts. He's a long kick but can lack consistency and is prone to blasting it long rather than lowering his eyes and finding the best target.

Hey Knightmare,

How would you rate Harrison Jones and Changkuoth Jiath?

Jones - good ball winner and productive but lacks an x-factor.

Jiath - raw and athletic. Decent tackler. Has some good moments here/there. But hasn't put it all together.

Not drafted not rookied (Power Ranking)

Butts (20)
Cassidy Parish (29)
Thompson (34)
Schloithe (45)

They've all got cases and I consider the group unlucky to be overlooked.

Best intercept mark (Butts), best first possession winner at stoppages (Parish), highest work rate and on field leader (Thompson) and best immediate mature age midfielder in the draft (Schloithe).

Is it rare to see so many on the board so early? Feels like we're about to be treated to some outstanding talent next year

The top 3/4 is properly outstanding. Lukosius, Rankine, Hill, King. I'm see an unusual amount of special up the pointy end of the draft. So I sense you are right, that we will be treated to a strong draft in 2018.

I believe I am objective. Seeing Fremantle receive a D+ for their draft efforts should give a West Coast supporter a warm fuzzy feeling. It doesn't because that rating is wrong and indefensible. Fremantle got the draft right. They nailed picks 2 (Brayshaw) & 5 (Cerra) which gives them an automatic B. Their next pick was 44 and they chose Hugh Dixon. From my perspective HD was always going to be the huge value selection for anyone that took him after the first round. I saw him play live 3 times through the year in Div2 and Div1 U/18 Championships. I had seen vision of his TSL senior games post the U/18 Championships. Everything I saw has been supported by data. Dixon had the highest % of contested possessions to possessions in the U/18 Div 1 when playing for the Allies. His disposal efficiency was still very high. He kicked 9 goals in 4 games for the Allies and was far from a stationary "full forward" often playing up the ground. He gave off numerous goals when I saw him play and undoubtedly he was a match winner against Vic Metro kicking 3 and being directly involved in another 4. His return to the TSL after the Championships saw him take his game to another level week by week. My spies told me he was training hard and getting fit and his last 2 TSL games of the year showed hard work was paying off. He played up the ground and through the middle in both games, but still managed to kick 5 goals against Glenorchy, where he had an ex AFL listed opponent, and 3 goals against Hobart. Yet, it was the way he did it. Good in the air and super clean on the ground. He goes to the All Stars game and gives 4 goals off in the first half before been swung down back in the second half and doing very well. I am a big wrap for Jarrod Brander and not disappointed West Coast snared him at 13 at all. Yet if you are talking value, how on earth could Dixon not be considered good value at 44 if Brander went at 13 and Allen at 21? Fremantle at this point have absolutely nailed the draft with picks 2,5 and 44. They are on an A (or more). They finish off with some later needs based picks, several which I rate, but somehow you give them a D+. Sorry, throw your power rankings out, they are wrong. Overhaul your methods of analysis. Think twice about giving subjective assessments which fly in the face of popular opinion unless you have reasons which prove it is highly likely to be wrong. Popular and expert (recruiters) opinion will usually be correct. In this case it is. I am with the dockers - did I just say that - they nailed the draft and scored an A. Just my opinion. You have the reasons for it.

Is Brayshaw a good pick? At 2 I don't consider him a good pick at 2. LDU, Dow, Cerra and Fogarty in my view are all clearly better and are in another tier. Balta I also feel is a better talent. In that next tier down, I have Brayshaw following Naughton, and only just in front of Higgins, H.Clark, Stephenson, Bailey, Coffield, Constable and Allen, all of whom I believe should be in the same conversation with Brayshaw.

Fremantle with picks 2+5 missed the opportunity to secure LDU, who may be the best in the draft, and he could have been paired with either Cerra or D.Fogarty, depending on which way North would have gone with pick 4 in that scenario.

I wouldn't disagree with someone who claimed that Cerra and Brayshaw can both have long careers. Cerra is one of the top tier midfielders this year. Brayshaw can be a 200 gamer, and perhaps a future leader, but I fully expect several of the players featuring after him will far exceed his output and impact at the senior level. If things go right with Brayshaw, I expect a career outcome not dissimilar to Luke Ball, albeit less talented and advanced than Ball was early career pre-injury. As with Ball in 2001, Judd/Swan/Ablett/Mitchell/Bartel/Dal Santo/Kelly/Montagna are some who had stronger careers. While the you can comfortably halve those names who will achieve that status from this draft, Brayshaw's standing in this draft I predict will be similar to Ball's from 2001 where he's a fine player, but just not who they could/should have had.

Dixon at 44 I don't like for value either. He is one I viewed as a late/rookie choice and he went sooner than he should have. He's has genuine football smarts and plays an unselfish brand of football which I appreciate from a big. He's also a very capable mark. Fine at ground level. But his lack of athleticism, speed and endurance is concerning for someone picked mid-draft. My theory with key forwards is, you only draft elite or projected elite players by position or you pass. Dixon is one of those many passes for mine.

With regard to Brander. I don't like the value of that selection for West Coast either (he is not worth a first round choice on the back of his inconsistent performances and inconsistent marking in 2017). It is West Coast's other choices that save the draft in my view. Allen and Ryan are strong picks where they were taken for mine. Ainsworth maybe a touch early, but Petrucelle solid where taken.

I'm regularly right about those who I believe have gone too early. There are a lot of players taken early in the first round I did not approve of going so high: Josh Schache and Sam Weideman I though was taken too early. Same goes for: Paul Ahern, Corey Ellis, Nathan Freeman, Ben Lennon, Jon O'Rourke, WHE, Buntine, Sumner, Gorringe, L.Cook and Tape for some top of mind, if you take the time to go through my drafts over the years.

How would Lukosious (sp) compare to Jack Darling who also looked like being a beast at a young age, yet hasn't really developed into much more than a good 2nd option?

Is the scope for improvement far greater?

They're very different. Darling was more physically advanced and was a beast. He was an extremely early bloomer and is also shorter - both factors that saw him have an impact right away, but have limited his growth compared to some of his later blooming peers.

Lukosius is different. He's not playing the way he is because he is taller or stronger than everyone. He has the complete game but then has the otherworldly endurance of N.Riewoldt. I fully expect he'll be one of the premier key forwards in the competition in time - injuries permitting.

 

[year of the cat]

Sam Walsh is the one I'm getting very excited for next year. Jye Caldwell isn't too bad either. My brother did state boxing with him, he is a very talented and athletic kid who needs to be looked at.

Looks like he'll be an absolute gun. Would love to see him in the hoops.

 

[Dave06]

KM - thoughts on the Pies rookie picks? Like the look of the two new lads and seems that Hine & co have targeted character whilst filling list needs. Do you rate them? Mihocek in particular seems genuinely ready to go

Oxley we obviously committed to but seems an odd one to recycle given we now appear flush with lighter bodied utililities, along with his injury which I’m led to believe will hamper him for as long as his career lasts

 

[The Grover]

Bailey Smith - Xavier/Sandringham
Will go top 10.
McGrath v3.0
A. Brayshaw v2.0
Not enough weapons or hurt factor for you, but he will be on stage this time next year.
Bookmark it.

Agree he is a gun

 

[Happy Mastenator]

I believe I am objective. Seeing Fremantle receive a D+ for their draft efforts should give a West Coast supporter a warm fuzzy feeling. It doesn't because that rating is wrong and indefensible. Fremantle got the draft right. They nailed picks 2 (Brayshaw) & 5 (Cerra) which gives them an automatic B. Their next pick was 44 and they chose Hugh Dixon. From my perspective HD was always going to be the huge value selection for anyone that took him after the first round. I saw him play live 3 times through the year in Div2 and Div1 U/18 Championships. I had seen vision of his TSL senior games post the U/18 Championships. Everything I saw has been supported by data. Dixon had the highest % of contested possessions to possessions in the U/18 Div 1 when playing for the Allies. His disposal efficiency was still very high. He kicked 9 goals in 4 games for the Allies and was far from a stationary "full forward" often playing up the ground. He gave off numerous goals when I saw him play and undoubtedly he was a match winner against Vic Metro kicking 3 and being directly involved in another 4. His return to the TSL after the Championships saw him take his game to another level week by week. My spies told me he was training hard and getting fit and his last 2 TSL games of the year showed hard work was paying off. He played up the ground and through the middle in both games, but still managed to kick 5 goals against Glenorchy, where he had an ex AFL listed opponent, and 3 goals against Hobart. Yet, it was the way he did it. Good in the air and super clean on the ground. He goes to the All Stars game and gives 4 goals off in the first half before been swung down back in the second half and doing very well. I am a big wrap for Jarrod Brander and not disappointed West Coast snared him at 13 at all. Yet if you are talking value, how on earth could Dixon not be considered good value at 44 if Brander went at 13 and Allen at 21? Fremantle at this point have absolutely nailed the draft with picks 2,5 and 44. They are on an A (or more). They finish off with some later needs based picks, several which I rate, but somehow you give them a D+. Sorry, throw your power rankings out, they are wrong. Overhaul your methods of analysis. Think twice about giving subjective assessments which fly in the face of popular opinion unless you have reasons which prove it is highly likely to be wrong. Popular and expert (recruiters) opinion will usually be correct. In this case it is. I am with the dockers - did I just say that - they nailed the draft and scored an A. Just my opinion. You have the reasons for it.

I think you accidentally selected west coast as the team you support when you are obviously a freo fan. Don't stress though it's an accident that could happen to anyone

 

[Knightmare]

KM - thoughts on the Pies rookie picks? Like the look of the two new lads and seems that Hine & co have targeted character whilst filling list needs. Do you rate them? Mihocek in particular seems genuinely ready to go

Oxley we obviously committed to but seems an odd one to recycle given we now appear flush with lighter bodied utililities, along with his injury which I’m led to believe will hamper him for as long as his career lasts

Appleby is a solid get as a shutdown defender. He's best in the draft at that (of the u18s). With his performance against Kayle Kirby (kept him to just the one goal) and first round key forward Jarrod Brander (1 goal and 4 disposals) among his best work, which is impressive for a 186cm, 80kg defender. Not much of a rebounder or intercepter and probably not all that dissimilar to a young Jackson Ramsay when he arrived at the club, though with the capacity to take bigger and stronger opponents.

Mihocek has been playing good footy in the VFL for some years now. Was unlucky to be overlooked in his draft year. He's a slow and undersized key defender, but he is a terrific intercept mark, strong 1v1 and a fairly good ball user. Depth Collingwood no doubt conceded they needed after the offseason departures of x4 KPPs.

 

[Dave06]

Appleby is a solid get as a shutdown defender. He's best in the draft at that (of the u18s). With his performance against Kayle Kirby (kept him to just the one goal) and first round key forward Jarrod Brander (1 goal and 4 disposals) among his best work, which is impressive for a 186cm, 80kg defender. Not much of a rebounder or intercepter and probably not all that dissimilar to a young Jackson Ramsay when he arrived at the club, though with the capacity to take bigger and stronger opponents.

Mihocek has been playing good footy in the VFL for some years now. Was unlucky to be overlooked in his draft year. He's a slow and undersized key defender, but he is a terrific intercept mark, strong 1v1 and a fairly good ball user. Depth Collingwood no doubt conceded they needed after the offseason departures of x4 KPPs.

Appreciate the response mate.

On that description Mihocek sounds like Dunn mkII. Could do a lot worse (I’m an unashamed fan of big Dunny)

 

[Danger in Texas]

Knightmare thoughts on Caldwell for next year? IMO he could well go top 5, has the class, goal kicking and ball winning ability needed to succeed at a high level I reckon, seems to be quite the balanced mid too

 

[Knightmare]

Appreciate the response mate.

On that description Mihocek sounds like Dunn mkII. Could do a lot worse (I’m an unashamed fan of big Dunny)

Similar enough both in game and quality. Mihocek is one who can come in for Reid or Dunn as needed down back, and play near Dunn quality football.

Knightmare thoughts on Caldwell for next year? IMO he could well go top 5, has the class, goal kicking and ball winning ability needed to succeed at a high level I reckon, seems to be quite the balanced mid too

Caldwell I included in my top 20 prospects for next year (see page one). Early signs positive - wins it, has the skills, hits the scoreboard. There is plenty to like.

Top five I'm not prepaired to claim with Caldwell, and I'm not even sure top 10 just yet. That top five is flat out special. Lukosius, Rankine, Hill, maybe M.King though he is one I can see dropping some next year. B.Williams I rate as a genuine top five prospect but being a ruckman is sure to go later (for mine he is the best ruck prospect since Grundy at the same stage). Blakey is sure to go high and may go top 5. Some might make a case for T.Thomas. There is a lot.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Caldwell I included in my top 20 prospects for next year (see page one). Early signs positive - wins it, has the skills, hits the scoreboard. There is plenty to like.

Top five I'm not prepaired to claim with Caldwell, and I'm not even sure top 10 just yet. That top five is flat out special. Lukosius, Rankine, Hill, maybe M.King though he is one I can see dropping some next year. B.Williams I rate as a genuine top five prospect but being a ruckman is sure to go later (for mine he is the best ruck prospect since Grundy at the same stage). Blakey is sure to go high and may go top 5. Some might make a case for T.Thomas. There is a lot.

Fair enough. Can see Lukosius, Rankine, Walsh, M King all going top 5 next year - that's the elite tier IMO (Blakey and B King stiff). Caldwell is very close to that group on talent from what I've seen, he's got quite a complete game. Reckon Curtis Taylor might surprise, too.

Can you see Hill dropping, due to his size?

 

[Snake_Baker]

I'm regularly right about those who I believe have gone too early. There are a lot of players taken early in the first round I did not approve of going so high: Josh Schache and Sam Weideman I though was taken too early. Same goes for: Paul Ahern, Corey Ellis, Nathan Freeman, Ben Lennon, Jon O'Rourke, WHE, Buntine, Sumner, Gorringe, L.Cook and Tape for some top of mind, if you take the time to go through my drafts over the years.

Talk about pulling the trigger early. How about letting the bloke take the field before you write him off?

 

[bmaurizio]

Hi Knightmare , was happy with our haul in 2017 , Next year I hope for Lukosiuos to the Baggers can he become as good a player as our recent ex President ? , that would dream come true.
The other lad I've heard good things about is Hately,no sure if I've got it , would appreciate your insights . Are next year's top 10 good as the media reports ? Thanks

 

[Mighty_sainter]

Talk about pulling the trigger early. How about letting the bloke take the field before you write him off?

I'm honestly not sure how you can count freezer and ahern as taken to early when either has set foot on an afl field to an injury? It's pure luck

 

[The Grover]

Fair enough. Can see Lukosius, Rankine, Walsh, M King all going top 5 next year - that's the elite tier IMO (Blakey and B King stiff). Caldwell is very close to that group on talent from what I've seen, he's got quite a complete game. Reckon Curtis Taylor might surprise, too.

Can you see Hill dropping, due to his size?

I don't see Curtis Taylor being a early pick.

Watched him closely in the U17 all-star & had zero impact as a mid. Played better once moved to backline.

 

[Sin City]

Sam Walsh is the one I'm getting very excited for next year. Jye Caldwell isn't too bad either. My brother did state boxing with him, he is a very talented and athletic kid who needs to be looked at.

Walsh is a seriously talented midfielder. Imagine adding him to our future midfield of Cripps, Kennedy, Dow and SPS.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Walsh is a seriously talented midfielder. Imagine adding him to our future midfield of Cripps, Kennedy, Dow and SPS.

He's one I've been watching for 18 months now. He ticks nearly every box and because I had to get down to the real nitty gritty the one area I'm keen to see him improve is his disposal at full speed (which is hard for most to do well) because if he does that I might have to put ruckwork as an improvement haha

 

[Knightmare]

Fair enough. Can see Lukosius, Rankine, Walsh, M King all going top 5 next year - that's the elite tier IMO (Blakey and B King stiff). Caldwell is very close to that group on talent from what I've seen, he's got quite a complete game. Reckon Curtis Taylor might surprise, too.

Can you see Hill dropping, due to his size?

Hill has special talent. He may drop if he doesn't continue improving.

I'm expecting Hill to remain in demand though. Special talent with his pace/agility/skills. But then also has the ball winning down which suggests he can, despite his height, feature inside the top five, if he continues to improve.

Talk about pulling the trigger early. How about letting the bloke take the field before you write him off?

Irrespective of Ahern's injuries in recent years.

I had Ahern rated 28 in his draft year, 2014, in my power rankings.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmare-2014-phantom-draft.1081319/

Hi Knightmare , was happy with our haul in 2017 , Next year I hope for Lukosiuos to the Baggers can he become as good a player as our recent ex President ? , that would dream come true.
The other lad I've heard good things about is Hately,no sure if I've got it , would appreciate your insights . Are next year's top 10 good as the media reports ? Thanks

My top 20 prospects in case you missed it (Hately included): http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/21565075/knightmare-top-20-afl-draft-prospects-2018

Hately had a terrific U18 Champs. I don't have him top 10 at this point, but he has first round chances for 2018.

Lukosius can become another Nick Riewoldt. The game style and quality similarity is not unlike what Jonathon Brown was in comparison to Wayne Carey. Lukosius can be special.

Top 10 next year is looking as good as any in recent times, at this point. The top end need to keep developing, and often that doesn't happen as much as expected, but even if they don't, it's looking like an above average-strong draft.

Walsh is a seriously talented midfielder. Imagine adding him to our future midfield of Cripps, Kennedy, Dow and SPS.

While he still has the ball winning capabilities, he would add contrast with the outside run he can also provide.

 

[CatRiot]

Hey KM,

Which clubs do you think did the best for their relative picks in the National and Rookie Drafts?

 

[Snake_Baker]

Irrespective of Ahern's injuries in recent years.

I had Ahern rated 28 in his draft year, 2014, in my power rankings.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmare-2014-phantom-draft.1081319/

Irrespective of your "power rankings", the data set is still open and currently at zero, so you can't reach any logical conclusion. This is a very lazy analytical interpretation and it skews the integrity of the data.