Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

AFL draft wrap with a focus on Miles Bergman: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/27383231/afl-draft-wrap-bergman-marking-prowess-the-rise

 

[bigmikles089]

Smith is in my intercepting category but can negate. He's on the tallish side at 189cm, but can play smaller if needed. Probably not my first choice to take super speedy smalls though.

Does Smith play down back for Gippsland or does he float into the middle?

He's averaging 21 touches in the NAB league so is he just rebounding off half back or actually setting up in the midfield?

 

[Halways]

Hey KM

Have you heard anything reports back about the Rostrevor V Sacred Heart Intercol on the weekend in Adelaide ? Specifically how Taheny went ?

 

[Knightmare]

Does Smith play down back for Gippsland or does he float into the middle?

He's averaging 21 touches in the NAB league so is he just rebounding off half back or actually setting up in the midfield?

Plays mostly as an undersized key defender. Has no trouble getting his hands on the footy. He's gets his hands on him.

Hey KM

Have you heard anything reports back about the Rostrevor V Sacred Heart Intercol on the weekend in Adelaide ? Specifically how Taheny went ?

Haven't heard.

Had my hands full on the weekend with APS v AGSV, U17s (Country v NSW/ACT and Metro v QLD) and the Herald Sun Shield final which I watched the replay of.

Happy to listen to reports if anyone was a the game or watched through the footage.

 

[Coathanger]

"Smith is a big lad who can take a grab but it's unclear whether he gets picked.

He's one where recruiters will look at him and think he's dominating because he's bigger and stronger than anyone else. Recruiters will interject he needs more tricks and will need to get faster and cover more ground to be someone they'd consider as more than a rookie.

Last year we had similar players in Hugo Munn and Hudson Garoni who were just as good who got overlooked. And from last year's draft they're the two Smith is most comparable to. So he's far from a lock."

Thanks for that summary, do you think the Hawks will take Harrison Pepper as a NGA in the main draft?

 

[Knightmare]

"Smith is a big lad who can take a grab but it's unclear whether he gets picked.

He's one where recruiters will look at him and think he's dominating because he's bigger and stronger than anyone else. Recruiters will interject he needs more tricks and will need to get faster and cover more ground to be someone they'd consider as more than a rookie.

Last year we had similar players in Hugo Munn and Hudson Garoni who were just as good who got overlooked. And from last year's draft they're the two Smith is most comparable to. So he's far from a lock."

Thanks for that summary, do you think the Hawks will take Harrison Pepper as a NGA in the main draft?

Pepper I wouldn't take in the national draft. He's more a rookie for mine.

 

[Snake Charmer]

Trading Places - SNAKES ANNUAL TRADING GAME VERSION 4.0

Adelaide - Mr MysteryGuest Brisbane - reggie Carlton - thetradesman Collingwood - Snake Charmer Essendon - Two Planks Fremantle - Geelong - Gold Coast- Prochard123 Greater Western Sydney - Drew23 Hawthorn - Melbourne - Thetrader15 North Melbourne - Port Adelaide - goldcoastsun Richmond - St...

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Hey we have a trade game about to start if anyone is keen. Still 6 spots left

 

[kickthething]

If a bid hasn't been made on Green by the time Sydney pick, I'd be advising Sydney to bid. He's an ideal successor to Josh Kennedy through the mids. It probably wouldn't take Green long until he became Sydney's best midfielder. I really like Parker and Heeney is good when he goes through there. But Green is a flat out beast and about as good of a genuine primary ball winner as you'll find in any draft. He's too good to pass up.

This is spot on in imo. Green is the deal pick for the Swans and would not guarantee a match from the Giants either. Would be the best fit, perhaps followed by Young given the depletion of the defensive stocks. I dont think there are too many better at reading the ball than Young, and then using it to some effect.

 

[VanDemonxx]

Knightmare do you think Anderson can be a genuine threat up forward in the AFL next year? Similar to Stephenson for Collingwood last year?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare do you think Anderson can be a genuine threat up forward in the AFL next year? Similar to Stephenson for Collingwood last year?

That's my belief. Anderson I consider better than Stephenson. Anderson is the more damaging ball user and possesses greater ball winning capabilities. Like Stephenson he hits the scoreboard in bunches. Anderson won't be on as good of a team as Stephenson, but if he was, he'd be doing as much or more from season one.

 

[vozzon]

Hey Knightmare, what are your thoughts on Port Adelaide's father son picks in Mead/Burgoyne this year and Schofield next year. Was thinking port may be in a position to trade in players or trade up the draft if they have an idea on where the players may attract bids, eg with the crows and pick 3 (for our 2019 1st and 2nd rounder and 2020 1st rounder). We will still cover the father son bid while also getting an early pick.

Any other options port could have to take advantage of the situation.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, what are your thoughts on Port Adelaide's father son picks in Mead/Burgoyne this year and Schofield next year. Was thinking port may be in a position to trade in players or trade up the draft if they have an idea on where the players may attract bids, eg with the crows and pick 3 (for our 2019 1st and 2nd rounder and 2020 1st rounder). We will still cover the father son bid while also getting an early pick.

Any other options port could have to take advantage of the situation.

Mead will be big on late first or second round. He's a good mid.

Burgoyne I consider unlikely to be picked.

Schofield next year is another good one and early indications are he could go in a similar range to Mead this year.

Port probably should hold next years picks for now, but this year's second round pick probably is worth trading with a bid probably not coming long before that. Could be used in a pick upgrade/downgrade or a trade for a player.

 

[weltschmerz]

Almost a year on, is there a team you think really won last year's draft? Obviously Richmond got a real star in Stack for nothing, and Port's three have all exceeded expectations I think.

 

[Knightmare]

Almost a year on, is there a team you think really won last year's draft? Obviously Richmond got a real star in Stack for nothing, and Port's three have all exceeded expectations I think.

Top of mind.

Richmond won it over the preseason with Stack. And add Ross to that and they've done well.

Port will be satisfied with their x3 first rounders.

Gold Coast once they get Rankine into the side should be proven one of the winners and next year that should look more obvious.

Western Bulldogs should prove to be a winner and next year that should look more obvious headlined by the success Smith and West will respectively have.

 

[foodles05]

Hey Knightmare, what are your thoughts on Port Adelaide's father son picks in Mead/Burgoyne this year and Schofield next year. Was thinking port may be in a position to trade in players or trade up the draft if they have an idea on where the players may attract bids, eg with the crows and pick 3 (for our 2019 1st and 2nd rounder and 2020 1st rounder). We will still cover the father son bid while also getting an early pick.

Any other options port could have to take advantage of the situation.

They've got another really good prospect in their academy. Lachie Jones. Has awesome acceleration and power and already kicks is 55 plus. Not as touted as some of the others in next years draft from SA but has talent to burn. Port have done very well.

 

[Comeonden]

Who do crows take at pick 3?

 

[briztoon]

Who do crows take at pick 4?

FTFY.

 

[Knightmare]

Who do crows take at pick 3?

I'd big on Tom Green firstly. Assuming GWS match.

Lachlan Ash I like and would be my choice. Hayden Young will receive strong consideration here. Same with Caleb Serong.

 

[manny100]

After watching Essendon demolish Freo last night it quickly became apparent that a priority pick will not help GC. Essendon have risen to the finals from the depths of despair in quick time on the back of trading good players in. That is what the AFL need to do to help GC. Assist getting some ready made good players into the club. They already have pick 1 plus another 1st rounder plus Rankine to play next season. Get some good quality ready mades and we should see a quick improvement.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

After watching Essendon demolish Freo last night it quickly became apparent that a priority pick will not help GC. Essendon have risen to the finals from the depths of despair in quick time on the back of trading good players in. That is what the AFL need to do to help GC. Assist getting some ready made good players into the club. They already have pick 1 plus another 1st rounder plus Rankine to play next season. Get some good quality ready mades and we should see a quick improvement.

Essendon were only as bad as GC because the whole senior team was suspended.

 

[Knightmare]

After watching Essendon demolish Freo last night it quickly became apparent that a priority pick will not help GC. Essendon have risen to the finals from the depths of despair in quick time on the back of trading good players in. That is what the AFL need to do to help GC. Assist getting some ready made good players into the club. They already have pick 1 plus another 1st rounder plus Rankine to play next season. Get some good quality ready mades and we should see a quick improvement.

Essendon aren't a team I'd be modelling anything on. While they're set to make the finals, if you go off the strength of play indicator that is team % Essendon are really only the 12th best side in the competition.

I agree with you that what Gold Coast need is players to help them rise. That's what Sydney built their premierships on. After Hawthorn's 2008 premiership, their following premierships were in large part on the back of opposition talent they secured.

The trick will be making Gold Coast a destination club for players to join or giving them reason to join. And unless there is some kind of concession the AFL make - perhaps an inflated salary cap or something along those lines, it's going to be hard for them to build.

Gold Coast really need to get smart with how they pay their players. They need to ensure they overpay no one, paying everyone either at market or less than market cost to be able to build a relevant club. This way they're won't run into salary cap problems where they're going to need to move talent to remain under the cap, and they also have the room to attract rival talent. I'd be looking to compliment this with noted veteran leaders. Brisbane got Hodge, why shouldn't Gold Coast aggressively make a play for Joel Selwood and Trent Cotchin? They're in need of that calibre of leader to help their youth develop and establish a culture where talent will want to stay and where talent will develop.

 

[Lore]

if you go off the strength of play indicator that is team % Essendon are really only the 12th best side in the competition.

Fair enough not modelling anything on Essendon, but do you really put that much stock in percentage? It's gone up and down like a yoyo for a few clubs in the last few weeks.

 

[Knightmare]

Fair enough not modelling anything on Essendon, but do you really put that much stock in percentage? It's gone up and down like a yoyo for a few clubs in the last few weeks.

For strength of play, I do consider % as best indicator and a better indicator than wins/losses or ladder position (which has more of a relationship to a team's draw than actual true strength of play). I also consider % from a predicting standpoint a better indicator than eventual ladder positions as to what is likely to happen.

Take our top 2 sides this year. Geelong last year finishing 8th at the end of the H+A season with a % of 131.6% which was the second highest % only following Richmond last year. Similarly Brisbane in 15th were a better side than Western Bulldogs and Fremantle who were both ahead of them. Sydney in 6th weren't the 6th best team last year with a lower % than both GWS and Geelong who were behind them.

So absolutely I do put that much stock into %. And that's no disrespect to Essendon, I've just developed this view over a number of years and made the same comments re ladder/% this time last year.

I believe the AFL Prospectus at some stage has also covered this and made the same conclusion and did a study over a number of seasons looking at whether % was a better indicator of team strength both on that season and as a future predictor.

 

[Bay Giant]

This is spot on in imo. Green is the deal pick for the Swans and would not guarantee a match from the Giants either. Would be the best fit, perhaps followed by Young given the depletion of the defensive stocks. I dont think there are too many better at reading the ball than Young, and then using it to some effect.

You’re living in a fantasy land if you don’t think that the Giants do not match any bid on Green.

Fantasy.

 

[weltschmerz]

Hey Knightmare: say it’s draft day, you’re the Gold Coast Suns with pick 1, and it’s time to put your draftee’s name down. Who is it? Anderson? And would you make a different choice for any other team?