Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

I actually think Kemp will also be gone by the time Sydney pick. I reckon they'll take Serong.

With a lot of smaller types coming through Sydney's Academy Serong I think Sydney will stay away from. Or at least they should. He just doesn't make sense with Gulden (172cm) and Campbell (178cm) coming next year through their Academy.

They could even consider Thorne (175cm) this year through their Academy, though perhaps more as a rookie.

 

[VanDemonxx]

Hi Knightmare

if GC get their PP (which it seems they will ) It seems Melbourne will take Young or Ash with pick 3
Who suits Melbourne's needs better? I know Young is an elite kick but does he have enough speed to play wing at AFL level next year?
How's Ash's kicking?

Getting the sense that Young is rated higher than Ash.
Cheers

 

[Bring back Bas]

Hi Knightmare

if GC get their PP (which it seems they will ) It seems Melbourne will take Young or Ash with pick 3
Who suits Melbourne's needs better? I know Young is an elite kick but does he have enough speed to play wing at AFL level next year?
How's Ash's kicking?

Getting the sense that Young is rated higher than Ash.
Cheers

It may be a blessing in disguise for Melbourne if Gold Coast receive pick 2 as a priority pick. Although it sounds like Anderson is the obvious selection at pick 2, Melbourne is probably the only team in the competition that doesn't need that type of player. Their inside mid stocks are excellent and you also have the medium marking forward position well covered with Petracca and Melksham.

If Melbourne do go into the draft with pick 2, I'm sure that they take the best available player which would be Anderson by the sound of it, but someone like Ash would be such a perfect fit for them. The best outcome may be that they have pick 2 taken away and are forced into taking Ash or Young.

How big exactly is the gap between Anderson and the next kid?

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

It may be a blessing in disguise for Melbourne if Gold Coast receive pick 2 as a priority pick. Although it sounds like Anderson is the obvious selection at pick 2, Melbourne is probably the only team in the competition that doesn't need that type of player. Their inside mid stocks are excellent and you also have the medium marking forward position well covered with Petracca and Melksham.

If Melbourne do go into the draft with pick 2, I'm sure that they take the best available player which would be Anderson by the sound of it, but someone like Ash would be such a perfect fit for them. The best outcome may be that they have pick 2 taken away and are forced into taking Ash or Young.

How big exactly is the gap between Anderson and the next kid?

I also think pick 3 will thrive from having zero expectations placed upon them whereas Anderson would have been under quite a lot of scrutiny from our fans.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare

if GC get their PP (which it seems they will ) It seems Melbourne will take Young or Ash with pick 3
Who suits Melbourne's needs better? I know Young is an elite kick but does he have enough speed to play wing at AFL level next year?
How's Ash's kicking?

Getting the sense that Young is rated higher than Ash.
Cheers

Ash is the better fit for Melbourne for mine because he has both the kicking but then also the speed and really high level line breaking capabilities.

Ash is a really nice kick. Has the vision, but can deliver low, hard daggers. So kicking is absolutely a strength, though Young edges him for kicking only slightly with his work under pressure of an elite level.

Young seems to be rated more highly in clubland, same with Serong, but Ash is one on my board I rate a bit higher than others have him.

In Melbourne's position I'd even consider moving down to a pick around pick 10, or as low as I can go while feeling confident I can get Gould. Then get Gould + something else whether it's a player or another pick. That way you've got your high level kicking defender and you've got the chance to add another worthwhile piece to the mix as an extra.

It may be a blessing in disguise for Melbourne if Gold Coast receive pick 2 as a priority pick. Although it sounds like Anderson is the obvious selection at pick 2, Melbourne is probably the only team in the competition that doesn't need that type of player. Their inside mid stocks are excellent and you also have the medium marking forward position well covered with Petracca and Melksham.

If Melbourne do go into the draft with pick 2, I'm sure that they take the best available player which would be Anderson by the sound of it, but someone like Ash would be such a perfect fit for them. The best outcome may be that they have pick 2 taken away and are forced into taking Ash or Young.

How big exactly is the gap between Anderson and the next kid?

Anderson, Rowell and Green for mine have a fair bit of separation between them and the field. Missing out on Anderson isn't a good outcome. It's like missing out on De Goey, knowing who he is today, for someone like Adam Saad. Saad is nice and a difference maker, but he's not on the level of a De Goey.

Through the draft. Go get the best guy there.

Anderson is great as a forward. But he doesn't have to be played forward. It's more like with a Dusty or Danger where you can play them one-out, and they'll destroy you. Or you can play them through the midfield and watch them dominate. Anderson has not only the ball winning capabilities but is a damaging ball user and has some explosiveness. He's number one on my draft board for a reason.

 

[curnow inferno]

Hi KM, im sure youve touched on this previously however just wanted to see if you agree with some carlton officials who claim that apart from the top 2 this year (and academy picks) that no other player would have been top 10 last year and the rest of top 10 this year will be very even? Or are they just saying this to justify stocker trade?


And as an add-on, would you prefer pick 8 + stocker or pick 3 in this draft? (Or if gold coast get a PP, maybe one pick further) without putting too much thought in to it, roughly whereabouts do you think stocker would fit in in this year’s draft?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, im sure youve touched on this previously however just wanted to see if you agree with some carlton officials who claim that apart from the top 2 this year (and academy picks) that no other player would have been top 10 last year and the rest of top 10 this year will be very even? Or are they just saying this to justify stocker trade?

And as an add-on, would you prefer pick 8 + stocker or pick 3 in this draft? (Or if gold coast get a PP, maybe one pick further) without putting too much thought in to it, roughly whereabouts do you think stocker would fit in in this year’s draft?

I'm all about Anderson/Green (Academy)/Rowell this year. After those guys, I view everyone else as a clear tier down.

There are probably a few this year who could displace Chayce Jones from last year's top 10 and I'd say the same of Tarryn Thomas, but they're the only two who went earlier than I felt they should have last year, and who would be beat by some of this year's prospects.

Stocker I fit at 17 in my power rankings last year and would rate him around the same this year. With this draft after around 15 more comparable to last year's. I'm not seeing a huge difference between pick 3 and 8 this year assuming GWS match bids on Green. If GWS didn't match bids on Green, I'm taking Green over Stocker and pick 8. Assuming bids matched, it's largely a wash and I'd even edge slightly towards saying advantageous to Carlton getting those two first rounders.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Brady Rowles: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...inebreaker-brady-rowles-likened-damaging-crow

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Interesting to see Young and Ash being given extended runs in midfield over recent weeks. Who of the two would you think most likely to make it as a midfielder at AFL level?

 

[Mofra]

Smith has absolutely no upside when it comes to his conditioning. Walsh is more ready this year not because of better preparation but because he's a far better athlete and prospect. Simple as that.

Bailey Smith is coming off a very limited pre-season, so does have a fair bit of upside in conditioning and getting the KMs in the legs (his achilles took a long time to heal properly). The arguments are moot really, Walsh with win the RS award and Bulldog fans are wrapped with Smith.

 

[Knightmare]

Interesting to see Young and Ash being given extended runs in midfield over recent weeks. Who of the two would you think most likely to make it as a midfielder at AFL level?

Young can play through the midfield and did a fair bit earlier in the season but in the Dandenong games I've been watching of late he's been used back. Ash on the other hand has been used more through the midfield.

On the outside I like Ash a lot more. In contested situations while I enjoy the evasion and agility of Ash, I feel more confident in Young's contested ball winning capabilities.

 

[windows1]

Walsh will be better than prime Hannebery. Walsh is a more reliable kick and a more complete footballer.



Walsh will get stronger and expand his ball winning capabilities. And being light and already a strong ball winner is a good indication that that will be a key strength. I agree he can stand up through tackles and that's an asset. What I'm not seeing is that burst of a Judd or that impact per possession Judd provides.

Walsh could be of similar quality to Selwood, though again slightly behind for mine with my expectations of Walsh forward of centre and as a leader not as high.

Expectations forward of centre and as a leader? Selwood is a 0.5 a game career goal kicker. I’ll eat my hat if Walsh doesn’t match that. As a leader? He will match Selwood. Go to a game next year. Watch him closely. Watch him go HARD when it is his turn. Back back into contests. LIFT when the game is on the line. At his age!! Watch him run hard to create numbers at a contest when no one else can. Push back hard then double up and go forward. He cuts open play with slalom running. He already stands up in tackles and gets the ball off easily. His pace is easily better than Gaff. He will be a 30+ possession a game, 15 contested, 15 goal a year, 8 time AA. Ie: he will only have to improve slightly to achieve that.

 

[9874123]

Hey Knightmare, in your Sam Flanders rational you note his consistency through the second half of the season, both through the champs and the NAB League, but you list consistency as one of his weaknesses. Is this something that he has been working on but still isn't to a good level, or are you just seeing it as a consistent patch that doesn't necessarily mean he can become a consistent player in the AFL.

Cheers

 

[Mutineer]

Knighta interested on your take on Trent Rivers....played mainly back at the Championships but reading some articles from the West he's been going pretty well when playing on the ball. Firstly where do you see him playing in the AFL, personally I fancy it would be very tempting for clubs to develop him as an on baller with his size for that role seen as an advantage these days. Any chance he will still be on the table at the Crows' 2nd pick?

 

[Knightmare]

Expectations forward of centre and as a leader? Selwood is a 0.5 a game career goal kicker. I’ll eat my hat if Walsh doesn’t match that. As a leader? He will match Selwood. Go to a game next year. Watch him closely. Watch him go HARD when it is his turn. Back back into contests. LIFT when the game is on the line. At his age!! Watch him run hard to create numbers at a contest when no one else can. Push back hard then double up and go forward. He cuts open play with slalom running. He already stands up in tackles and gets the ball off easily. His pace is easily better than Gaff. He will be a 30+ possession a game, 15 contested, 15 goal a year, 8 time AA. Ie: he will only have to improve slightly to achieve that.

2013/2014 Selwood proved effective forward of centre. Hasn't otherwise spent much time there. But it's within his capabilities. Will Walsh have a 30 goal year? If he does then I'll be giving him credit for that being a component to his game.

Will Walsh become one of the two best leaders in the game? Will he surpass Cripps as a leader? I'd say that's too early to say. Particularly on a team that is still developing.

Walsh has excellent endurance and has the work rate, but he's not fast. If we're talking about sprinting speed, his speed is only average.

Hey Knightmare, in your Sam Flanders rational you note his consistency through the second half of the season, both through the champs and the NAB League, but you list consistency as one of his weaknesses. Is this something that he has been working on but still isn't to a good level, or are you just seeing it as a consistent patch that doesn't necessarily mean he can become a consistent player in the AFL.

Cheers

Consistency of Flanders has been better through the midfield through the second half of the season and that's something probably from the U18 Champs he started. I love most what he does forward of centre, with his early 2018 play what I've enjoyed most. But he's also very good through the midfield. So whoever drafts him gets that dual position player and someone ideally suited to play mostly forward and rotate through the midfield and have an impact in smaller minutes.

Knighta interested on your take on Trent Rivers....played mainly back at the Championships but reading some articles from the West he's been going pretty well when playing on the ball. Firstly where do you see him playing in the AFL, personally I fancy it would be very tempting for clubs to develop him as an on baller with his size for that role seen as an advantage these days. Any chance he will still be on the table at the Crows' 2nd pick?

Could do either. A lot like him as a ball winning mid and I lean that way also. Suitable for selection in the second round. Unclear whether there at the Crows pick, but could be one for consideration if there.

 

[FAITH]

norwood is my local club and talk from there is Hamish will take Dylan Stephens with our first pick.
he is also a massive fan of luke jackson, so the serong/kepm/ash rumors to crows are false.

 

[Mutineer]

norwood is my local club and talk from there is Hamish will take Dylan Stephens with our first pick.
he is also a massive fan of luke jackson, so the serong/kepm/ash rumors to crows are false.

If Ogilvie's that heavily into Stephens then we'll be trading down because no way is Stephens pick 3 in this draft and it would be crazy to spend pick 3 on him when we would still get him and another late 1st round pick into the bargain for pick 3.

 

[FAITH]

If Ogilvie's that heavily into Stephens then we'll be trading down because no way is Stephens pick 3 in this draft and it would be crazy to spend pick 3 on him when we would still get him and another late 1st round pick into the bargain for pick 3.

We will have essentially pick 5 this year, he's seen as a definite top 10.
Watched him closely for the redlegs and I don't see much difference between what polec produced for the eagles in draft year and what Stephens did this year.

 

[9874123]

Consistency of Flanders has been better through the midfield through the second half of the season and that's something probably from the U18 Champs he started. I love most what he does forward of centre, with his early 2018 play what I've enjoyed most. But he's also very good through the midfield. So whoever drafts him gets that dual position player and someone ideally suited to play mostly forward and rotate through the midfield and have an impact in smaller minutes.

That's good to hear, I have a mate who has worked with him at Gippy who is very bullish about his future. Carlton is likely to trade their pick but if they don't do you think he'd be around that mark on draft night, and how do you think he'd fit at the blues.

I personally think he'd be a great fit, living mostly down the forward half of the ground and later increasing his midfield exposure as Murph and Ed continue to age.

 

[mighty_sainters]

KM,

If you were the saints and went to the draft with pick 5 who would be your choice to suit our needs?

 

[Munnez]

Hi Knightmare
What range do you expect Luke Jackson to go in. Think he might be a good fit for the Dogs. Used primarily as a KPD who can give English a chop out as second ruck

 

[Knightmare]

norwood is my local club and talk from there is Hamish will take Dylan Stephens with our first pick.
he is also a massive fan of luke jackson, so the serong/kepm/ash rumors to crows are false.

If Stephens is rated that highly Adelaide can drop back a few picks to get him.

We will have essentially pick 5 this year, he's seen as a definite top 10.
Watched him closely for the redlegs and I don't see much difference between what polec produced for the eagles in draft year and what Stephens did this year.

I saw Polec in his draft year as the much more damaging player. Has that extra penetration and hurt factor to him. Though Stephens finds more of it. Stephens if you want an SA comparison I look at more like a James Aish as that highly productive junior who doesn't have the weapons of the better prospects this year. He's fairly quick and has a neat left foot, but there are many guys who are more explosive and more damaging ball users.

That's good to hear, I have a mate who has worked with him at Gippy who is very bullish about his future. Carlton is likely to trade their pick but if they don't do you think he'd be around that mark on draft night, and how do you think he'd fit at the blues.

I personally think he'd be a great fit, living mostly down the forward half of the ground and later increasing his midfield exposure as Murph and Ed continue to age.

Hard worker from what I hear. Somewhat of a man-child being physically developed a lot earlier and probably as a result not quite having the same upside, or at least as he had to this year, work harder to get as much improvement out of his game as his peers.

I'd liken Flanders to a Christian Petracca or 2018 Josh Caddy. That's the sort of player he looks like assuming he is used more as a forward.

KM,

If you were the saints and went to the draft with pick 5 who would be your choice to suit our needs?

Depends who is there. Lachlan Ash I'm a fan of and would be leaning towards with that pick. Breaks games open with his run and kicking.

Otherwise Will Gould I feel is underrated and I'd with a pick around that range more than willingly move down to get Gould + something else.

Hi Knightmare
What range do you expect Luke Jackson to go in. Think he might be a good fit for the Dogs. Used primarily as a KPD who can give English a chop out as second ruck

Jackson is one who continues to creep up my draft board. I think he could be a first round pick. Anywhere pick 5 onwards he could land. There is talk that as high as Adelaide at 3 he could receive consideration. It's really strange to me because we haven't had a ruckman taken inside the top 10 since Billy Longer in 2011. Jackson isn't as good as Grundy was at the same age or stage, and is considerably shorter as a sub 200cm ruckman, so it seems like a new trend for clubs to go earlier again on ruckman, I guess given the relative scarcity of good ruckmen to come through recent drafts.

 

[FAITH]

not sure how much of Norwood you've seen this year, but he's been breathtaking at times.

his carnival form wasn't great though.

 

[Knightmare]

not sure how much of Norwood you've seen this year, but he's been breathtaking at times.

his carnival form wasn't great though.

What specifically have you liked of Stephens at Norwood?

From watching his U18 Champs he projects to me as something like a Ben Johnson but without the allergy to winning his own ball.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

I'm all about Anderson/Green (Academy)/Rowell this year. After those guys, I view everyone else as a clear tier down.

There are probably a few this year who could displace Chayce Jones from last year's top 10 and I'd say the same of Tarryn Thomas, but they're the only two who went earlier than I felt they should have last year, and who would be beat by some of this year's prospects.

Stocker I fit at 17 in my power rankings last year and would rate him around the same this year. With this draft after around 15 more comparable to last year's. I'm not seeing a huge difference between pick 3 and 8 this year assuming GWS match bids on Green. If GWS didn't match bids on Green, I'm taking Green over Stocker and pick 8. Assuming bids matched, it's largely a wash and I'd even edge slightly towards saying advantageous to Carlton getting those two first rounders.

It's su lucky there is an Academy, Green would never have heard of AFL without one