Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

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So you'd do it without anything going back?
Even though the gap is equivalent is a pick around 53.
The points are just not a guiding factor.

In the past:
  • moving from 3 to 2 saw pick 15 change hands plus some later pick shuffles
  • moving from 6 to 4 saw a future pick that ended up as 8 change hands
In this draft, where 2 gets you the last of the ''top tier'' draftees, moving up from 7 to 2 would require 15 and IMHO something else, with nothing going back to Richmond. It's just the price. Ignore the points, but if you cannot, look at past examples - the buyer (Richmond) has to pay several hundred points in premium to move to the pointier end.

And no, I wouldn't make the trade personally, I'd just take Callaghan. But who knows what the GWS list management team will do - they might consider it with a bigger strategy in mind than I can envisage.
 
The points are just not a guiding factor.

In the past:
  • moving from 3 to 2 saw pick 15 change hands plus some later pick shuffles
  • moving from 6 to 4 saw a future pick that ended up as 8 change hands
In this draft, where 2 gets you the last of the ''top tier'' draftees, moving up from 7 to 2 would require 15 and IMHO something else, with nothing going back to Richmond. It's just the price. Ignore the points, but if you cannot, look at past examples - the buyer (Richmond) has to pay several hundred points in premium to move to the pointier end.

And no, I wouldn't make the trade personally, I'd just take Callaghan. But who knows what the GWS list management team will do - they might consider it with a bigger strategy in mind than I can envisage.
So Suns pick probably more gettable than Giants?
 
If you don't want to pay as much of a premium, possibly so. Not being a Suns fan, I would find it harder to gauge what they may accept, although I would have thought 7 & 15 would still have been around the mark for #3, perhaps just not with any extra.
I don't mind if Tigers fail at moving up, means we're a good chance to get Ward maybe, but really depends what you guys do with Pick 2
 
Suns should take Ward with their pick, if Tiges don't move up, but may take Gibcus, so yeah, Hawks probably do get Ward, which would be a good result.

Think Ward suits us best.

Rachele is a sneaky chance if Ward is gone. Mitchell mentioned on a podcast recently that he wants players with elite traits in particular areas rather than players that are just good at everything. Wingard is probably the only player on our list capable of providing X-factor through the midfield and up forward. Rachele could potentially offer that too.
 
Think Ward suits us best.

Rachele is a sneaky chance if Ward is gone. Mitchell mentioned on a podcast recently that he wants players with elite traits in particular areas rather than players that are just good at everything. Wingard is probably the only player on our list capable of providing X-factor through the midfield and up forward. Rachele could potentially offer that too.
I think Rachele attracts interest from a few clubs in the top 10 despite seemingly falling down many draft orders, particularly Adelaide and Hawthorn. The commentary around both clubs seems to have been way too focused on the size of the midfielders they should be trying to bring in, but what matters more than that in my opinion is the style of player. I can see both clubs being very attracted by Rachele's x-factor and attacking flair both through the midfield up forward.

If he does slip passed those two, Richmond and St Kilda both make sense to me as well.
 
Knightmare

As always thanks for all your work educating supporters

Just a couple of questions more related to GWS from your article


You don't see a need for a KPD with Buckley and Keefe likely to miss at least half the season each returning from ACL's and Keefe and Davis likely to retire at the end of 2022?
The recruitment of Swans Reid would be good but I dont see the need with the club likely to go with a 2 ruck policy for next year with none proven and unlikely to play the whole season and if needed for certain games or reasons Sproule can come in to play a fwd/ruck role (Not in the class of Reid) and I dont see how the club fits him in from a salary cap point of view

Callaghan is the perfect fit for the club with his outside game the potential to complement the inside game already on the list

What would you think the trade value of Finlayson would be without having actual amounts of his salary but thinking it is between 300-400k
I would think a pick around 50 would be around the mark, higher if a couple of clubs are interested
 
Bloody hell...
JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF
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JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF
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JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF
JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF
JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF JHF
and yet I keep coming back for more!!!
North need something to look forward too
I hope for the their sake he becomes the star that they hope he will be before requesting a trade back to SA.
You know go home factor and all, might turn him into a couple of 1sts in a few years.
In all seriousness I hope he goes alright for them. And if you believe everything said he is going to be a franchise player who will take them too the promised land. And maybe they are right but is a whole lot of commentary on a junior
 

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An interesting one and it really depends on who it is the Suns like in this draft. If the Suns see guys at 6 and 8 who they would take at 3, that may well be a question they ask of Fremantle.

If I have pick 3, and I mention this in my list needs piece on ESPN, I'm taking Ward. He's a safe pick and will be an incredible midfielder for a long time is my projection. A lot of those in that next group down, I don't rate meaningfully higher than those who could be available in the teens.



I'd love both and would target both personally.

To choose though.

For immediate performance Skinner.

Over the long run and if you don't want to risk someone with an injury history Schlensog.



I do my best to be a generalist. I want to know across AFL/NAB League/VFL/SANFL/WAFL as much as I can about everyone playing at those levels.

I take a strong interest in state league play and place a high premium on good state leagues. I've had more time this year to assess state leaguers than I would in the normal season with less NAB League play given the lockdowns.

Leek Alleer is the best of the bunch as a key defender. Blake Schlensog and Sam Skinner also look great as key defenders. Sandover Medalist Bailey Rogers I'm a big wrap for as a mid who can also push forward. Tyrone Thorne I like despite being tiny. Lots of good overagers, with Jack Avery my personal favourite as a 3rd tall defender, though there are others also featuring on my draft board.

Knightmare I also really like Jack Avery. Wondering if you feel he may be able transition into a hard running tall winger style role? If he could, he would make a very good defensive intercepting wingman?
 
Cool there is speculation floating on Trade radio that North is not in love with JHF.
Rendell thinks Zoohar and Lazzario play for North.
Wouldn't really consider anything spoken on the show regarding North to be factual.
 
Knightmare

As always thanks for all your work educating supporters

Just a couple of questions more related to GWS from your article


You don't see a need for a KPD with Buckley and Keefe likely to miss at least half the season each returning from ACL's and Keefe and Davis likely to retire at the end of 2022?
The recruitment of Swans Reid would be good but I dont see the need with the club likely to go with a 2 ruck policy for next year with none proven and unlikely to play the whole season and if needed for certain games or reasons Sproule can come in to play a fwd/ruck role (Not in the class of Reid) and I dont see how the club fits him in from a salary cap point of view

Callaghan is the perfect fit for the club with his outside game the potential to complement the inside game already on the list

What would you think the trade value of Finlayson would be without having actual amounts of his salary but thinking it is between 300-400k
I would think a pick around 50 would be around the mark, higher if a couple of clubs are interested
Last thing we need is a spud like Sam Reid
 
Rendell thinks Zoohar and Lazzario play for North.
Wouldn't really consider anything spoken on the show regarding North to be factual.
What sprang to mind was North list management passing around rumour to drum up interest for the 1st pick. I think they are trying to see if they can get 3x top ten picks. That would well and truely be a win in my opinion.
 
Knightmare I also really like Jack Avery. Wondering if you feel he may be able transition into a hard running tall winger style role? If he could, he would make a very good defensive intercepting wingman?
I don't get why clubs are so harsh on overagers. expecting an 18yo to be professional is a bit of a struggle in my opinion.

Tom Stewart and Luke Ryan sprang to mind as a consumate pro as a mature draftees. I think Avery can go the same way if he improves his tank and 1 on 1.
 
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