Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Definitely Taylor. Can't believe he fell so low. Think he'll be quite similar to Caleb Daniel in making his low selection look quite silly.

Having seen Ned Long linked to Hawthorn in a couple of Phantom Drafts inside the top 30, I cannot believe we snagged him as a rookie.

Knightmare why do you believe Long fell so low considering he was highly rated by some observers?

I'm so happy with Hawthorns haul. Genuinely think Josh Ward and Connor MacDonald will develop into players like Zach Merrett and Mitch Duncan respectively. Sam Butler adds some X-factor and looks a fantastic potential long-term replacement for Luke Breust. Serong also has great upside so landing him in the 50's was great business as well.

Such little exposure with Long I feel like is the issue and will see him rated lower in club rankings compared to where he might otherwise have been, with clubs no doubt having a greater level of confidence in a lot of those others they've seen more, feeling more committed to them and having a higher level of conviction in a lot of them as a result. It's just the three games in the NAB League. I can't top of mind recall him appearing in any other meaningful games. He wasn't in the AFL Academy game, and I don't believe top of mind he was in any of the Metro v Country games either.

Hawthorn have drafted well this year. Newcombe and Callow during the MSD. Long as a rookie is great. Ward best available and great value, so much so I've for a long time weighed even whether he's better than Callaghan, he's certainly has the higher floor of the two. Butler and MacDonald both suitable for where they were picked.

MacDonald and Long sort of alike had that lesser exposure with very small sample sizes in the NAB League, though MacDonald at least appeared at state level.

 

[Sphynx]

I can't say I'm in as fortunate of a position to re-watch NAB League games as it sounds like you are, as the games this year sadly aren't on YouTube for the draft enthusiasts in the public to enjoy replays of - which for the other competitions I have continued to look back at in the leadup to the draft. I have though in my wisdom with all the state games saved and re-watched those.

In looking back over my notes and reviewing his stats, the statement I will retract is around his contested work, with his contested possessions dramatically higher than I thought they would be in % terms. The game of his I most recently reviewed and this is the last picture of his play I have in mind is of his Metro v Country trial where he was taking some strong marks and a meaningful threat on the lead i50 and after Darcy was that next best avenue to goal + set up a few. His contested numbers 9cp/8up surprise me as it felt like a much less contested game from him. And looking at his NAB League game stats, again, and I'm surprised in checking the stats, and it's largely due to how little ball he finds, but he actually wins more than 50% contested. So my initial comments were completely wrong around the contested side to his game.

Most of the TAC Cup games are available on the Herald Sun website for free still. Surely as a draft expert you know this? or are you basing your opinions off single games you have seen someone?

Curtis’ 4.4 for the Jets against the undefeated Dragons is an example of a game you can still watch right now.

 

[Sphynx]

So instead of complaining about other people who are putting in the effort why don't you contribute something if you know so much about the players.

Souup is a massive contributor to this website.

You may not of heard of him because he doesn’t do 3.5hr clips or tweets self congratulatory statements all the time, but he picked the first 3 North picks dead on prior to the draft. Bangers and eDPS wil certainly back up his knowledge.

 

[Knightmare]

Most of the TAC Cup games are available on the Herald Sun website for free still. Surely as a draft expert you know this? or are you basing your opinions off single games you have seen someone?

Curtis’ 4.4 for the Jets against the undefeated Dragons is an example of a game you can still watch right now.

Most TAC Cup games? I'm not sure how games from years ago would help me in assessing this years draft talent?

Herald Sun briefly had matches of the round, and those were available on replay. Once the NAB League season concluded I promptly unsubscribed as I'm not a supporter of paywall websites. I've seen each game on there and taken detailed notes from all those games that were on the site. Did they upload all the other games that were streamed on the NAB League ap or just what they already had on there? As this year was an u19 competition rather than an u18 competition, there wouldn't be any point going back now to re-subscribe, as there is nothing to gain with the draft done, but it would be interesting if they did that so that the average person can go back and review those games they were either unable to attend or watch live.

 

[northeasttiger]

Hi Knightmare thanks for your work this season.

You marked Richmond heavily for their picks but was this on the assumption that we were drafting to stay in the premiership window?

Look at our picks through the lens of a rebuild and see what your mark would be?

 

[Kangas_11]

So instead of complaining about other people who are putting in the effort why don't you contribute something if you know so much about the players.

Tell me you haven't read any of Souup's posts without saying it explicitly.

 

[Jack Richards]

Knightmare who do you feel is the best player not taken in the draft that is likely to be taken in the SPP period

 

[2Fabulous]

Hi Knightmare, who’s your early #1 favourite for 2022 draft?

 

[scoman]

Condon chose an AIS Basketball Scholarship and made the decision earlier in the month that he'll chase his basketball dreams instead.

Condon won't be the first or last to chose basketball over footy. We'll get more of that over coming seasons.

Any knowledge if this is effecting the normally quite reasonable production line of Queensland talls. Do you know of any? There has been very little on the horizon for a couple of years now in our academy. I know basketball is huge in the school's at the moment especially private.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare thanks for your work this season.

You marked Richmond heavily for their picks but was this on the assumption that we were drafting to stay in the premiership window?

Look at our picks through the lens of a rebuild and see what your mark would be?

Purely and simply if you compare my top-75 power rankings (see on YouTube full rankings beyond the top-20 I have on ESPN), Richmond took the players they took higher than I rated them. That was what I graded based on.

Whether Richmond needed to go for say mature agers over juniors, I don't think that's necessarily the case. I think Richmond's premiership window has probably closed to be realistic, so starting to bring in the best possible youth while you still have a good number of your premiership players still there I think is fine and not a basis I would have this year marked Richmond down on.

Knightmare who do you feel is the best player not taken in the draft that is likely to be taken in the SPP period

Have a video dropping tomorrow on this very topic with my top-10 to miss. But for my #1, Kade Dittmar. Great for WA during the Champs through the midfield and seeing the level of his contested ball winning and how lively and energetic he is around stoppages as that bigger body, he really shouldn't have been overlooked.

Hi Knightmare, who’s your early #1 favourite for 2022 draft?

Ashcroft is unbelievable. Brisbane F/S. He's my early favourite and will be hard to pass.

Any knowledge if this is effecting the normally quite reasonable production line of Queensland talls. Do you know of any? There has been very little on the horizon for a couple of years now in our academy. I know basketball is huge in the school's at the moment especially private.

I don't following the younger age groups as closely as others do, with my focus being on AFL/NAB League/SANFL/WAFL/VFL, and of those younger age groups in QLD, my knowledge is of those who are of draft age, but there haven't been historically all that many talented sports people in Queensland who choose footy, and same goes with NSW being states where the talent aren't as engaged or focused on footy for the most part, with their focus more-so on other sports comparatively.

I can say in Victoria though, there are in the younger age groups knowing a few talented young footballers that there are a number of them choosing basketball over footy. I might get one such name on my YouTube channel at some point next year.

And that's going to happen when you have yearly 2k games, and no AFL games for a few years and the quality of the games is uncompetitive, and we've got the growing American culture moving to Australia and merging more than in generations past with our own.

 

[Knightmare]

How not to trade. The greatest Sinn committed during the 2021 AFL Offseason:

We all know the trade: Port Adelaide moving up two spots to secure Josh Sinn after trading their 2022 2nd round selection to make it happen. And that's following the Ladhams trade during the trade period to move up four spots.

Point of discussion: If you were the ultimate decision maker for Port Adelaide or Geelong in the case of their draft day trade with the Dogs. Would there be anything you would have done differently?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qygMPEItKGo

 

[Pie 4 Life]

How not to trade. The greatest Sinn committed during the 2021 AFL Offseason:

We all know the trade: Port Adelaide moving up two spots to secure Josh Sinn after trading their 2022 2nd round selection to make it happen. And that's following the Ladhams trade during the trade period to move up four spots.

Point of discussion: If you were the ultimate decision maker for Port Adelaide or Geelong in the case of their draft day trade with the Dogs. Would there be anything you would have done differently?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qygMPEItKGo

You realise Essendon were going to take Sinn if they didn't trade up right? Are you suggesting they just don't trade up and accept a player they rate lower on their boards?

By doing the trade Port Adelaide prefer Sinn to the player they would have received with their next selection had they not traded, and a future second next year, which will likely be in the 30s.

I understand your point of moving up multiple times, but if they believe Sinn is clearly the best on their board, why would they not take that chance, especially when they are only giving away a likely late second rounder on top of getting the one they want?

 

[Knightmare]

You realise Essendon were going to take Sinn if they didn't trade up right? Are you suggesting they just don't trade up and accept a player they rate lower on their boards?

By doing the trade Port Adelaide prefer Sinn to the player they would have received with their next selection had they not traded, and a future second next year, which will likely be in the 30s.

I understand your point of moving up multiple times, but if they believe Sinn is clearly the best on their board, why would they not take that chance, especially when they are only giving away a likely late second rounder on top of getting the one they want?

In other words you would have gone the same route as Port Adelaide?

As per in the video. It's a lot to give up.

In: Josh Sinn + Syd 2022 3rd
Out: Ladhams, Sheldrick and 2022 2nd

I didn't like the Ladhams trade firstly for such an inconsequential trade up as he's capable at AFL level and for mine can be a long term piece. Then the second trade is a lot to move up just two spots. Put the sum of the parts together, and it's certainly on paper not pretty.

You'd be wanting to view Sinn as a top-5 player in the draft to be able to justify all that given up.

My personal approach would have been entirely contrasting.

If I had to trade Ladhams for a pick/picks and couldn't get back a player as part of the deal that would help my best-22 get better, I'd have looked to add more picks, with a view towards a larger involvement inside the first and second round instead of just moving up an insignificant number of spots. And in the scenario, let's say Sinn was my preferred pick and I knew he wouldn't be there, I'd still rather move down and capitalise on clubs having their own targets and wanting to move up for them, getting better value that way.

It's such an even draft that I'd be letting all the clubs know, if you want to move up a few spots, the picks I'm holding I'm willing to move down if you make it worth my while either in the way of another second round pick or some worthwhile 2022 pick because of the evenness of this draft and not really missing out on much if your most preferred player isn't there.

*I'm just reading this now, but Essendon had planned Hobbs over Sinn making the trade unnecessary in the end: https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/11/25/why-the-bombers-were-so-delighted-to-draft-hobbs/
*That is unless West Coast would have taken Hobbs or Sinn instead of Chesser had they not moved back.

 

[Chris25]

I understand your point of moving up multiple times, but if they believe Sinn is clearly the best on their board, why would they not take that chance, especially when they are only giving away a likely late second rounder on top of getting the one they want?

If you want a player, go get that player. More teams should show that confidence.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

In other words you would have gone the same route as Port Adelaide?

As per in the video. It's a lot to give up.

In: Josh Sinn + Syd 2022 3rd
Out: Ladhams, Sheldrick and 2022 2nd

I didn't like the Ladhams trade firstly for such an inconsequential trade up as he's capable at AFL level and for mine can be a long term piece. Then the second trade is a lot to move up just two spots. Put the sum of the parts together, and it's certainly on paper not pretty.

You'd be wanting to view Sinn as a top-5 player in the draft to be able to justify all that given up.

My personal approach would have been entirely contrasting.

If I had to trade Ladhams for a pick/picks and couldn't get back a player as part of the deal that would help my best-22 get better, I'd have looked to add more picks, with a view towards a larger involvement inside the first and second round instead of just moving up an insignificant number of spots. And in the scenario, let's say Sinn was my preferred pick and I knew he wouldn't be there, I'd still rather move down and capitalise on clubs having their own targets and wanting to move up for them, getting better value that way.

It's such an even draft that I'd be letting all the clubs know, if you want to move up a few spots, the picks I'm holding I'm willing to move down if you make it worth my while either in the way of another second round pick or some worthwhile 2022 pick because of the evenness of this draft and not really missing out on much if your most preferred player isn't there.

I don't think you can just simplistically say that as an individual whether or not you would do it. There are plenty of factors to the process, and you make the best decision at the time.

What I'm saying is, if they rate Josh Sinn far higher than anyone else on the board at that point, why would they settle for taking someone else. At the end of the day, the let's say Port finish top four so they're looking at that 33-36 range. Sydney is hard to judge for next year, but we'll say 8th for example. That is Sinn + 33 for Sheldrick + 26 on the night.

Ladhams is a completely different scenario and is hard to compare when it comes to list management. We've seen the likes of Adam Treloar the the Pies bungle last year, we've seen veterans go out for cheap (Mitchell, Hodge etc.), plenty of players leave for various reasons. So the whole Ladhams scenario would not come into the recruiters minds.

At the end of the day, they go into the AFL Draft looking to bring the best possible talent in. Much like Collingwood did last year after a disaster trade period. They were able to do a number of live trades and trade out their first rounder (which copped grief) but still brought in players they believed could impact, and we've seen how they have done.

I think it's a reasonable enough assumption to think that if Sinn was their far and away best player, knowing that the club before them would take him, they'd be happy to trade up.

As I said, I see your reasoning, but much like the Pies last year, and clubs before them, you have to make the most of your draft hand regardless if the trade period does not go your way, or as planned. Sinn suits their gamestyle, so I think it's a good fit for them.

 

[Brian McGee]

How not to trade. The greatest Sinn committed during the 2021 AFL Offseason:

We all know the trade: Port Adelaide moving up two spots to secure Josh Sinn after trading their 2022 2nd round selection to make it happen. And that's following the Ladhams trade during the trade period to move up four spots.

Point of discussion: If you were the ultimate decision maker for Port Adelaide or Geelong in the case of their draft day trade with the Dogs. Would there be anything you would have done differently?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qygMPEItKGo

What were your thoughts at the time on Brisbane trading a second rounder to move up 1 spot to get Devon Robertson? And can you be sure that west coast wouldn’t have traded with another team that was happy to trade up to get Hobbs, thus leaving Essendon to take sinn and port to take someone they weren’t as keen on?

 

[Knightmare]

If you want a player, go get that player. More teams should show that confidence.

Maybe I'm the Moneyball guy, but I'd play the odds and go the mathematically sounder route. Given the evenness this year, my convictions would be on playing the numbers.

It should be the obvious play to go for more good picks and move down a little to make it happen, rather than pay a price premium by wanting to move up like everyone else goes.

Being a contrarian and doing the opposite of the market tends whether you're playing the markets or assessing football talent to be the best opportunity.

Follow everyone else and you're never getting outsized returns.

 

[Knightmare]

What were your thoughts at the time on Brisbane trading a second rounder to move up 1 spot to get Devon Robertson? And can you be sure that west coast wouldn’t have traded with another team that was happy to trade up to get Hobbs, thus leaving Essendon to take sinn and port to take someone they weren’t as keen on?

I was supportive of Brisbane's move up for Robertson at that time, seeing him as a superior value choice at the time, though maybe I shouldn't have been and that's actually a trade I've been thinking a fair bit about a fair bit since, as it was really too much to give up.

West Coast pre-draft were talking to a few teams about moving back, so had Port Adelaide not agreed to the trade, they very well could have struck a trade with one of the teams a little further back, as they were having those conversations.

 

[Chris25]

So Port did the right thing by not following everyone else who stood still. Glad we can finally agree on something.

 

[Brian McGee]

I was supportive of Brisbane's move up for Robertson at that time, seeing him as a superior value choice at the time, though maybe I shouldn't have been and that's actually a trade I've been thinking a fair bit about a fair bit since, as it was really too much to give up.

West Coast pre-draft were talking to a few teams about moving back, so had Port Adelaide not agreed to the trade, they very well could have struck a trade with one of the teams a little further back, as they were having those conversations.

I agree, and this was my point. Port obviously rated sinn significantly higher that whoever was next on the board. Wether this is right will play out in the coming years, but I have seen a lot of comments about it being a pointless trade, and I don’t agree with that. West coast could have had the same trade lined up as a back up plan with Richmond or Brisbane to get either of sinn or Hobbs, and if port didn’t pull the trigger then they would have ended up with neither. I would have been ok with this as I would have been happy to take Johnson, but our recruiters obviously saw it differently.

 

[Wce17]

Have a video dropping tomorrow on this very topic with my top-10 to miss. But for my #1, Kade Dittmar. Great for WA during the Champs through the midfield and seeing the level of his contested ball winning and how lively and energetic he is around stoppages as that bigger body, he really shouldn't have been overlooked.

According to a poster on the eagles board he has a back issue which is why he may have been overlooked. Same poster also said he will be a train on player over the preseason at the eagles in the hope of getting the last list spot we have open (Might have 2 if Sheppard calls it quits)

 

[Rusty Beam]

You realise Essendon were going to take Sinn if they didn't trade up right? Are you suggesting they just don't trade up and accept a player they rate lower on their boards?

Obviously Dodoro may have been fibbing or engaging in a bit of revisionist spin, but that’s not what his comments suggest. It implies Hobbs was always rated higher, they just didn’t expect him to be available.

“We had him ranked in the first six or seven [on our draft board],” Dodoro admitted at Marvel Stadium on Wednesday night.

“It’s quite funny because I said to Rob [Forster-Knight] today, I said ‘we’ve got to give this kid a call’, because the phone had rung a few times with a few clubs wanting our pick so I think word had got out he maybe, or someone was slipping through.

“It was a great surprise that he got through and I think he’s going to be a fabulous midfielder for us.”

 

[Knightmare]

So Port did the right thing by not following everyone else who stood still. Glad we can finally agree on something.

We couldn't be less in agreement, and you're not understanding my point at all.

Clubs pretty much universally wanted to move up, but other than West Coast, and the Dogs with the pick that would have been absorbed in the Darcy bid matching, no other clubs had any interest in moving down.

Moving down was the opportunity.

To move up, you're paying overs every time.

Being a contrarian is moving down when every club wishes to move up. And in such an even draft, it's an obvious play where you could move down for a profit and still ultimately be drafting the better player in the first place, or still get the player you targeted later on.

I agree, and this was my point. Port obviously rated sinn significantly higher that whoever was next on the board. Wether this is right will play out in the coming years, but I have seen a lot of comments about it being a pointless trade, and I don’t agree with that. West coast could have had the same trade lined up as a back up plan with Richmond or Brisbane to get either of sinn or Hobbs, and if port didn’t pull the trigger then they would have ended up with neither. I would have been ok with this as I would have been happy to take Johnson, but our recruiters obviously saw it differently.

Following on from this thought, and this is moving further down the hypotheticals, but did Port Adelaide in the end need to trade up in that Ladhams trade, to then be able to move up to West Coast's pick? West Coast wanted to move back for Chesser, and from that original pick the Power had, may well have been able to execute largely the same trade and still get the Eagles Chesser.

According to a poster on the eagles board he has a back issue which is why he may have been overlooked. Same poster also said he will be a train on player over the preseason at the eagles in the hope of getting the last list spot we have open (Might have 2 if Sheppard calls it quits)

Will be interesting to see how that goes and if he can get a list spot in the PSP.

 

[Chris25]

We couldn't be less in agreement, and you're not understanding my point at all.

It was a joke. I understand your point and I couldn’t disagree with you more.

 

[Knightmare]

It was a joke. I understand your point and I couldn’t disagree with you more.

As a point of curiosity, and Pie 4 Life gave his take, but would you have done both trades the same and picked Sinn in Port Adelaide's situation? If you would have changed a detail, which detail would you have done differently?