Oppo Camp Non Geelong football (AFL) discussion 2024, Part 2

[Vdubs]

Remove the margin from 07, and what's the average?

Since 2000,
2000 Ess Mel 60
2001 Bris Ess 26
2002 Bris Coll 9
2003 Bris Coll 50
2004 Port Bris 40
2005 Syd WCE 4
2006 WCE Syd 1
2007 Gee Port 119
2008 Haw Gee 26
2009 Gee StK 12
2010 Coll StK 56
2011 Gee Coll 38
2012 Syd Haw 10
2013 Haw Freo 15
2014 Haw Syd 63
2015 Haw WCE 46

average winning margin excluding 2007, 30 points
average winning margin including 2007, 36 points

Since the pre-finals Bye,
2016 WB Syd 22
2017 Rich Ade 48
2018 WCE Coll 5
2019 Rich GWS 89

2020 Rich Gee 31

2021 Melb WB 74

2022 Gee Syd 81
2023 Coll Bris 4
2024 Bris Syd 60

As said before, average winning margin since prefinals bye introduced, 46 points

Why not introduce MCG tenants v interstate teams ?
Since 2000, only applicable to Haw GF' s pre the bye,
->Ave winning margin 41 points
If we include Geelong 07,
->Ave winning margin 61 points

Since the prefinals bye,
->Ave winning margin 55 points

 

[cats_09]

So AC/DC want the G next year for round 1 which would force the AFL to host all Melb games at Marvel.

Wonder who will win.

AC/DC

 

[Vdubs]

Papley or Zorko to become a Premiership player ?

Can we just cancel the game ?

BOTH the sort of players we would LOVE if they were Cats players

 

[Munich]

AC/DC

The turf takes longer than a week to get back to "normal" after something of that magnitude.

I think it'll create some issues.

 

[Cataholic]

BOTH the sort of players we would LOVE if they were Cats players

Papley? No.

I'd be embarrassed.

 

[cats_09]

The turf takes longer than a week to get back to "normal" after something of that magnitude.

I think it'll create some issues.

It’ll totally create issues

I went to Adelaide for our round 2 clash with the Crows, and while over there I did the rooftop walk of Adelaide Oval - more than 12 months on and you could still see the large section of the oval they had to replace following the Ed Sheeran concert in March 23 and the stage placement

We saw at the MCG how the turf didn’t look right following Ed Sheeran playing there, but it seemed to recover quicker than AO

It’ll be interested to see what happens, but thinking the MCG owners will go with who’ll make them more money

 

[cats_09]

Papley? No.

I'd be embarrassed.

There’s some opposition players that you “hate”, but they’d be easy to love as Gelong players

and then there’s Papley

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

This relates to the recent discussion on the timing of the finals bye

This is the logic way to do it but it’s not changing any time soon from what Andrew Dillion said on SEN the other day.

 

[iameviljez]

Since 2000,
2000 Ess Mel 60
2001 Bris Ess 26
2002 Bris Coll 9
2003 Bris Coll 50
2004 Port Bris 40
2005 Syd WCE 4
2006 WCE Syd 1
2007 Gee Port 119
2008 Haw Gee 26
2009 Gee StK 12
2010 Coll StK 56
2011 Gee Coll 38
2012 Syd Haw 10
2013 Haw Freo 15
2014 Haw Syd 63
2015 Haw WCE 46

average winning margin excluding 2007, 30 points
average winning margin including 2007, 36 points

Since the pre-finals Bye,
2016 WB Syd 22
2017 Rich Ade 48
2018 WCE Coll 5
2019 Rich GWS 89

2020 Rich Gee 31

2021 Melb WB 74

2022 Gee Syd 81
2023 Coll Bris 4
2024 Bris Syd 60

As said before, average winning margin since prefinals bye introduced, 46 points

Why not introduce MCG tenants v interstate teams ?
Since 2000, only applicable to Haw GF' s pre the bye,
->Ave winning margin 41 points
If we include Geelong 07,
->Ave winning margin 61 points

Since the prefinals bye,
->Ave winning margin 55 points

Honestly, I don't think it changes all that much. It just comes down to how well matched the teams are.

 

[Cataholic]

There’s some opposition players that you “hate”, but they’d be easy to love as Gelong players

and then there’s Papley

Yep

 

[Vdubs]

Papley? No.

I'd be embarrassed.

He's a good bloke. Off the field, quite humble. Used to come to our workplace off season as he was originally from Gippsland Victoria

 

[And_ROOS]

There’s some opposition players that you “hate”, but they’d be easy to love as Gelong players

and then there’s Papley

Papley, Ballantyne, Milne and Crowley. The Mt Rushmore of "thank **** they were never at my club".

 

[cats_09]

What’s with sports broadcasters and not getting the basics right - even when it’s been pointed out he’s wrong about 2022 and the Swans just never being favorites for the clash, he’s keeps doubling down by creating his own odds for them that week…apparently they started $1.80 favs against us

 

[Biggy_Boy]

I don’t think the winning margin is the issue. It’s the disadvantage it thrusts on the top 4 teams that’s the issue. Particularly the winners of the qualifying finals.

It's definitely changed how the finals series plays out. That's for sure. From a fan engagement and therefore broadcasting perspective, though not necessarily competitive standpoint, I can see why they changed it.

For quite a while, the finals series had played out in fairly standard fashion. The top 4 teams played the QFs, the QF winners got the break, the QF losers went on to beat the elim final winner and then lost the prelim to the QF winner. In a lot of cases, teams that finished top 4 and won the first QF were in the GF, except for a few rare exceptions.

From 2007-2015:
18 top 4 teams made the GF (all of them)
17 QF winners made the GF
1 QF loser made the GF
4 top 4 sides went out in straight sets
0 teams made the GF from outside top 4

Since the introduction of the bye in the same time frame:
14 top 4 teams have made the GF
10 QF winners have made the GF
4 QF losers have made the GF
8 top 4 sides have gone out in straight sets
4 teams have made the GF from outside top 4

It's definitely achieved what was likely the AFL objective of making the finals series seem like less of a formality in how it transpired. It's now much harder to predict what will happen. It is also clear that top 4 does not confer the same advantage as it did previously, though it still provides the optimal path to a GF. What is for sure is that you're in a precarious position if you lose that QF as we're almost averaging one straight sets exit per year. I would say the pre-finals bye does a lot to bridge the gap between the inferior of the top 4 and the superior of the next 4, making these basically 50/50 contests.

It is true, too, that finishing top 4 and wining the QF is no longer a golden ticket. It's much more likely that either the QF loser will continue on through the semis and beat you in a prelim or one of the elim finals winners will storm through. Based on current history, if you finish top 4 and win the QF, you're basically 50/50 to make the GF. Is that a fair reward commensurate with that achievement?

You don't want to throw games at any time of the year, especially finals. However, going forward, I think we will come to de-emphasize the value of a top 4 finish and even winning the first QF. Finishing top 6 would seem to offer just about as good a chance to ultimately make the GF, and what's more important is timing your run and managing your players. Finishing 5th and timing your run so you peak in finals, which is what Brisbane did, is going to be better than coming into finals in the top 2 with the wheels wobbling as was the case with Port and even Sydney.

The finals do seem much closer now, and even more random in how they play out. In two consecutive games, Brisbane were a few 50/50 moments away from being knocked down but they get through them to smash the Swans on their way to a flag. That made for compelling viewing. Is it fair that after a 23-game season, the placement that the side has played for doesn't really matter?

I do feel like prior to the introduction of the bye with the current finals system, more often than not, we got the two best teams of the year in the GF playing for the flag. I'm not so sure if that's the case anymore.

 

[Gunf]

The number 1 reason by a very long way and maybe even the only one was betting agencies crying at teams resting players in the final round and messing with the odds.

 

[you pick one]

Piss the pre finals bye off and go back to the pre GF bye for me I had no problems with that.More important now with the concussion protocols.

 

[catswhiskers]

I’m just hoping for a good game. Neither team winning worries me.

Brissy winning is a win for the AFL.

Sydney have support from all over the place, plenty of people with clout and plenty, in southern NSW, who have played and loved AFL forever.

Brisbane, less so. With NRL GF between Vic based team and Sydney team all the positive " footy talk" in Brissy will be AFL.

AFL could not have orchestrated it better.







On SM-A156E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Cataholic]

He's a good bloke. Off the field, quite humble. Used to come to our workplace off season as he was originally from Gippsland Victoria

Fair enough, but I still wouldn't want him representing us with the way he carries on.

He'd be one of, if not THE, most disliked players going around atm.

I understand white line fever, but he'd do well to temper it a little with some of that off-field humility imo.

 

[you pick one]

Fair enough, but I still wouldn't want him representing us with the way he carries on.

He'd be one of, if not THE, most disliked players going around atm.

I understand white line fever, but he'd do well to temper it a little with some of that off-field humility imo.

Front running little shite stirrer you were right first time.

 

[The_Koulouriotis_Fan]

Since 2000,
2000 Ess Mel 60
2001 Bris Ess 26
2002 Bris Coll 9
2003 Bris Coll 50
2004 Port Bris 40
2005 Syd WCE 4
2006 WCE Syd 1
2007 Gee Port 119
2008 Haw Gee 26
2009 Gee StK 12
2010 Coll StK 56
2011 Gee Coll 38
2012 Syd Haw 10
2013 Haw Freo 15
2014 Haw Syd 63
2015 Haw WCE 46

average winning margin excluding 2007, 30 points
average winning margin including 2007, 36 points

Since the pre-finals Bye,
2016 WB Syd 22
2017 Rich Ade 48
2018 WCE Coll 5
2019 Rich GWS 89

2020 Rich Gee 31

2021 Melb WB 74

2022 Gee Syd 81
2023 Coll Bris 4
2024 Bris Syd 60

As said before, average winning margin since prefinals bye introduced, 46 points

Why not introduce MCG tenants v interstate teams ?
Since 2000, only applicable to Haw GF' s pre the bye,
->Ave winning margin 41 points
If we include Geelong 07,
->Ave winning margin 61 points

Since the prefinals bye,
->Ave winning margin 55 points

I’m being a pedant, but 2010 should be counted as a draw as the replay is an anomaly.

 

[Commando]

I’m being a pedant, but 2010 should be counted as a draw as the replay is an anomaly.

Technically the draw is the anomaly...

 

[The_Koulouriotis_Fan]

Technically the draw is the anomaly...

Not really, the draw result might be an anomaly because for a Grand Final there must be a winner and loser but for this particular statistical analysis the replay is the anomaly because, unlike the draw, it was played in completely different circumstances to the other one off Grand Finals.

2021 should also not be included in the analysis as it didn't feature a pre-finals bye but a pre-Grand Final bye instead.

And 2007 should absolutely be counted even if it sways the stats.

There have always been Grand Final blowouts in the AFL, the 90s was full of them, it's not the discussion to be had imho. The discussion should be if it actually negatively affects top 4 teams chances of winning the flag.

 

[cats_09]

 

[cats_09]

Thoughts on what Cornes is saying here?

 

[Footy Smarts]

Thoughts on what Cornes is saying here?

The club's only got themselves to blame. They allowed Dimma to run them into the ground with awful recruiting and development. Then most of the off-field staff have bailed.

They've played 4 years without winning a final and now the club is being forced into one of the deepest rebuilds ever seen. Why should Rioli waste the rest of his career or Bolton waste his best years at a basket case?

It's pretty funny seeing Dimma wander off to greener pastures and get no judgement for decisions he actually made while Rioli and Bolton are expected to suffer the consequences of his shit decisions.