Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

[Vader]

An interesting analysis of the election:
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...n-election-get-things-done-if-you-want-to-win

The general take is that the Federal mess contributed about 1-2% of the 6% swing towards the ALP. That seems reasonable. It was definitely A factor, but it wasn't THE factor which determined the election. The ALP's record of achievement was a much more significant factor, but both factors contributed.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

We had the kerfuffle about Pesutto potentially losing his seat on Saturday night.

The interesting seat is Werribee. Tim Pallas held this seat prior to the election on a very safe margin of 15.3%. The ABC election mini-site says that there's been a 3.9% swing towards the Liberals and that Pallas is set to retain his seat.

But if you look at the first preference votes, Joe Garra is actually in second place behind Pallas and ahead of the Liberals' candidate, Gayle Murphy. The ABC has Pallas on 14,775 first preference votes, Joe Garra on 6,891 first preference votes, Gayle Murphy (Libs) 5,584 first preference votes, Rachel Carling-Jenkins (independent) 1,980 first preference votes, and Jay Dessi (Greens) on 1,978 first preference votes.

Speers tweeted earlier today that Garra is a chance of an upset. Provided that he finishes ahead of Murphy on the first preference votes, Pallas might be in some trouble.

 

[Contra Mundum]

This result is amazing - shows if all you have got is negative you can't win. Try to get my head around the Eastern Suburbs (12% swing in Malvern!) got to be Turnbull related. Greens "poor me" post election gives me this shits. Right Wing Identity politics, race baiting. culture wars on curriculum and law and order can only take you so far - trouble is someone like Sukkar and Tudge will take it as a signal to double down

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

This result is amazing - shows if all you have got is negative you can't win. Try to get my head around the Eastern Suburbs (12% swing in Malvern!) got to be Turnbull related. Greens "poor me" post election gives me this shits. Right Wing Identity politics, race baiting. culture wars on curriculum and law and order can only take you so far - trouble is someone like Sukkar and Tudge will take it as a signal to double down

The Greens in general have been deeply disappointing.

In the ACT Labor are proposing entryist legalisation of Canibus, which is supposed to be Greens policy.

Already the Greens are throwing up their arms, sayong they will have to consider the legislation and maybe add amendments, which typically means an effort to torpedo the bill, umming and awwing about legal complications etc.

You could take this as them not wanting to give Labor a win and putting their own petty political gain ahead of good policy, but just as likely is the fact that the party has reoriented towards middle class wowsers/boomer NIMBYs under DiNatale.

You say it in Melbourne with their efforts to block new public housing. They did so under the guise of selling public land to fund public housing not being the perfect answer.

But really it was the Greens working hand in hand with wealthy locals who didn't want new public housing period. They nearly teamed up with the Libs again to block a needed railyard upgrade. They are also positively paranoid about so called socialists in the party and are reflexively trying to purge left factional members in Vic.

 

[Hawk Dork]

Really reading the play. The ****in sucks will be on board soon

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Says people have switched off Murdoch's propoganda has lost its power

 

[Hoops]

We had the kerfuffle about Pesutto potentially losing his seat on Saturday night.

The interesting seat is Werribee. Tim Pallas held this seat prior to the election on a very safe margin of 15.3%. The ABC election mini-site says that there's been a 3.9% swing towards the Liberals and that Pallas is set to retain his seat.

But if you look at the first preference votes, Joe Garra is actually in second place behind Pallas and ahead of the Liberals' candidate, Gayle Murphy. The ABC has Pallas on 14,775 first preference votes, Joe Garra on 6,891 first preference votes, Gayle Murphy (Libs) 5,584 first preference votes, Rachel Carling-Jenkins (independent) 1,980 first preference votes, and Jay Dessi (Greens) on 1,978 first preference votes.

Speers tweeted earlier today that Garra is a chance of an upset. Provided that he finishes ahead of Murphy on the first preference votes, Pallas might be in some trouble.

Didn't know Rachel CJ was running as an independent.

Like Prahran the interest now is in who's comes in 2nd and 3rd, wish we had those numbers.

Edit. Also, Garra doesn't have to finish in front of Murphy in first preference votes, just in front on preferences, whether they come from RCJ, the Greens or any other voters

 

[Bunk Moreland]

 

[Pessimistic]

Anything to add, Goldensky?

 

[Farm Boy]

This result is amazing - shows if all you have got is negative you can't win. Try to get my head around the Eastern Suburbs (12% swing in Malvern!) got to be Turnbull related. Greens "poor me" post election gives me this shits. Right Wing Identity politics, race baiting. culture wars on curriculum and law and order can only take you so far - trouble is someone like Sukkar and Tudge will take it as a signal to double down

LOL. PMSL. It actually goes to show that the more negative the better. All I have seen the past two weeks is Labor ads potting Liberal - both federally and locally. It made me about as sick as the rorts-for-votes did, actually, no, but it did make me sick. Vic State Labor are about as pathetic as Tony Abbott. They are cancer. Matthew Guy is the very last person the Liberals needed to lead. He is a man of shifting values and no substance at all. You do not put such a weak person up against Daniel Andrews. Andrews is a strong leader. He will lead at any cost. He is just like Abbott and he is just like Putin. There are justifications for everything they do - according to their die hard supporters.

 

[Hoops]

Benambra might also fall to an Independent as they haven't called it yet despite Liberal V Labor 2PP being 59.3% V 40.7% after more than 80% of the vote being counted.
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2018/BenambraDistrict.html

 

[eth-dog]

LOL. PMSL. It actually goes to show that the more negative the better. All I have seen the past two weeks is Labor ads potting Liberal - both federally and locally. It made me about as sick as the rorts-for-votes did, actually, no, but it did make me sick. Vic State Labor are about as pathetic as Tony Abbott. They are cancer. Matthew Guy is the very last person the Liberals needed to lead. He is a man of shifting values and no substance at all. You do not put such a weak person up against Daniel Andrews. Andrews is a strong leader. He will lead at any cost. He is just like Abbott and he is just like Putin. There are justifications for everything they do - according to their die hard supporters.

So I take it you've missed all the Free TAFE and Level Crossing removal ads they've run about what they've done in Government? I'm not even a Labor voter and I can see how bullshit your argument is. The President of the Libs even says otherwise.

 

[Hornberger]

Benambra might also fall to an Independent as they haven't called it yet despite Liberal V Labor 2PP being 59.3% V 40.7% after more than 80% of the vote being counted.
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2018/BenambraDistrict.html

Based on how to vote cards, seems a bit of a long shot. SFFP put Liberals at 2. The almost get the Liberal candidate to 50%.

 

[Farm Boy]

So I take it you've missed all the Free TAFE and Level Crossing removal ads they've run about what they've done in Government? I'm not even a Labor voter and I can see how bullshit your argument is. The President of the Libs even says otherwise.

Was Andrew's accused of indirectly killing people? Guy was. I don't even like Matt Guy, I think he is a parasite and I largely agree with critics pointing out his flaws (too many to mention and I do agree he is shady - I have always agreed with others on that). But if we are going to talk negative ads, Labor accused Guy of political manslaughter. That is right. Apparently, due to cuts in ambulances, people have died and therefore Matt Guy is a murderer. And you have the nerve and audacity to tell me that criticisms about free TAFE and Level crossing ads compare to that, LOL.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I personally think it's both. People were happy with what Labor did and at the same time don't like where the Libs are heading both at State and Federal level.

Agreed. Generally speaking people who actually thought about their vote swung towards Labor because they preferred Labor's track record and policy announcements. People who didn't think about their vote probably went for Labor because of the Coalition circus in Canberra over the past couple of years. Maybe something like 80/20 in favour of State Government and opposition issues. Scomo, Dutton and co. didn't cost them the election, but they didn't help and they certainly had a role to play in the incredible swings to Labor in traditionally safe Liberal seats in the east and southeast.

 

[eth-dog]

Was Andrew's accused of indirectly killing people? Guy was. I don't even like Matt Guy, I think he is a parasite and I largely agree with critics pointing out his flaws (too many to mention and I do agree he is shady - I have always agreed with others on that). But if we are going to talk negative ads, Labor accused Guy of political manslaughter. That is right. Apparently, due to cuts in ambulances, people have died and therefore Matt Guy is a murderer. And you have the nerve and audacity to tell me that criticisms about free TAFE and Level crossing ads compare to that, LOL.

You said that "All I saw was Labor ads potting Liberals". I pointed out that the ALP had ads running about how they introduced free TAFE and their infrastructure plans. And having listened to commercial radio 8 hours a day for 4 days a week (where, in case you're unaware, have to run 5 minutes of political advertising an hour over an election campaign) I think I would be across most of the political ads, given I've heard a bit under 3 hours a week of them for the past month.

Also that ad was pointing out that Matthew Guy was a direct part of cutting funding to ambulence services, which lead to increased response times. Also, the LNP ran an ad pretty much saying the same thing with "gang violence rising" (despite statistics saying otherwise) and that "people are afraid to walk the streets" (which is bullshit).

You make a bullshit claim that all the ALP did was run attack ads, and then justify it with saying that the ALP accused Guy of killing people and twist my words of Andrews running positive ads that makes your claims bullshit, because they are.

 

[Vicky Park]

I've been waiting to see the Greens slide for some time. Having regularly witnessed them bullying staffers, and debating and voting on proposals at my local Council, and being aghast at the hypocrisy of some of their decisions - made to appease inner Melbourne residents who mouth platitudes about the environment and social justice, but dont actually want anything to change around them.

The cynicism they showed in my seat at the last Federal election, by paying people of African appearance to hand out how to vote cards on the day - one of whom when pressed admitted he was not a member of the party and had been in the country two weeks!

And now we are learning more about their less than perfect culture.

Many of my friends vote Green in the forlorn, if naive belief, that they are the party of integrity and the saviours of the planet. If only that were the case.

 

[ClokesShankedIt]

This result is amazing - shows if all you have got is negative you can't win. Try to get my head around the Eastern Suburbs (12% swing in Malvern!) got to be Turnbull related. Greens "poor me" post election gives me this shits. Right Wing Identity politics, race baiting. culture wars on curriculum and law and order can only take you so far - trouble is someone like Sukkar and Tudge will take it as a signal to double down

Where can I digest this greens whinging...which shows and do they have a podcast? I like listening to the greens after a bad election for them. They typically demand preferences off the majors but have a habit of not providing much back in return.

 

[Farm Boy]

You said that "All I saw was Labor ads potting Liberals". I pointed out that the ALP had ads running about how they introduced free TAFE and their infrastructure plans. And having listened to commercial radio 8 hours a day for 4 days a week (where, in case you're unaware, have to run 5 minutes of political advertising an hour over an election campaign) I think I would be across most of the political ads, given I've heard a bit under 3 hours a week of them for the past month.

Also that ad was pointing out that Matthew Guy was a direct part of cutting funding to ambulence services, which lead to increased response times. Also, the LNP ran an ad pretty much saying the same thing with "gang violence rising" (despite statistics saying otherwise) and that "people are afraid to walk the streets" (which is bullshit).

You make a bullshit claim that all the ALP did was run attack ads, and then justify it with saying that the ALP accused Guy of killing people and twist my words of Andrews running positive ads that makes your claims bullshit, because they are.

No, there is no justifying Labor's implication that Matt Guy is indirectly killing people. But, I am not surprised, and I am not surprised even in the slightest. When Daniel Andrews leads a party - this is what you get. When Abbott led the Liberals, a similar tale - toxic and rusted on supporters will justify it. I will say this again. No matter what the excuse, there is NO justification for the Labor ads accusing Guy of killing people. Now, lets put this in context as well, I initially replied to you having a whinge about the Liberals running the most negative ads, and perhaps their ads were negative. But their ads were nothing in comparison to the negative ads that the Andrews government ran. Andrews ran ads that were typical of the type of person he is. He will win at any costs and he does not care. I hate him like I hate Abbott and Putin, they are all cut from the same cloth. They will justify anything, and turns out so will their supporters, case in point - yourself.

 

[ClokesShankedIt]

I've been waiting to see the Greens slide for some time. Having regularly witnessed them bullying staffers, and debating and voting on proposals at my local Council, and being aghast at the hypocrisy of some of their decisions - made to appease inner Melbourne residents who mouth platitudes about the environment and social justice, but dont actually want anything to change around them.

The cynicism they showed in my seat at the last Federal election, by paying people of African appearance to hand out how to vote cards on the day - one of whom when pressed admitted he was not a member of the party and had been in the country two weeks!

And now we are learning more about their less than perfect culture.

Many of my friends vote Green in the forlorn, if naive belief, that they are the party of integrity and the saviours of the planet. If only that were the case.

Can you imagine what they would be saying if the libs ran a candidate who had rapped about committing rape?

 

[nobbyiscool]

LOL. PMSL. It actually goes to show that the more negative the better. All I have seen the past two weeks is Labor ads potting Liberal - both federally and locally. It made me about as sick as the rorts-for-votes did, actually, no, but it did make me sick. Vic State Labor are about as pathetic as Tony Abbott.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...n-election-get-things-done-if-you-want-to-win

If there is one message for any government, state or federal, from Saturday’s result, it is this: people will overlook your shortcomings if you tackle problems that matter to them.

Andrews said he would remove 25 in his first term, and he removed 29. Work on the $11bn Melbourne Metro Tunnel is underway, another visible reminder of stuff happening across a city straining to cope with record population growth.

He’s built schools, upgraded hospitals, restored funding to Tafe. On Monday, his first act as premier was to release the tender documents for the North East Link, the “biggest road project in our state’s history”.

I'm going to ignore the hysterical and hyperbolic second half of your post Farm Boy and address the first half with the quote from the Guardian article.

I try not to be too "I told you so" after elections, but I'll make an exception for you - I said all along that there have been positive ads for the Government all over Victoria for most of the last 4 years. The thing about infrastructure (and it amazes me that it took Governments so long to realise this) is that every time you're stuck at a level crossing; every time you're on a train replacement bus; every time you're stuck in a traffic jam on the Tulla cos of widening works; every time a tram can't get down St Kilda Road... it's a positive advertisement for the government. Because you aren't simply showing people an ad that most will tune out from anyway - you're giving them a lived experience that burns into their psyche and makes them think "this delay sucks, but **** me we need the infrastructure, I'm glad we're doing it, and I can't wait til it's done cos my life is going to be better for it."

I remember an episode of Hollowmen where the PM wanted a building in Canberra's Parliamentary Triangle with his name on it (which is all to accurate a reflection of how most politicians think) - but true legacy is the Metro Tunnel, or the 29 level crossings that are already gone, or the open spaces around those level crossings, or the improved travel times on the Tulla. Without having a single politicians name on any of it, these things are all a living, breathing monument and a positive advertisement for the Andrews government.

I feel like we're about to experience a massive, long overdue boom in infrastructure spending across the country, because politicians are going to start realising what Andrews and his government/advisers realised over 4 years ago, and they're going to realise that with a AAA credit rating and interest rates at an all time low, you cannot possibly lose on infrastructure at the moment.

I can't wait til Metro Tunnel is built. I can't wait til the suburban loop starts, and I'd desperately love to work on that project. I can't wait to see how much better our city moves with the various major roads projects ongoing. I can't wait til the level crossings near my house are gone. I can't wait til North East link is built. And no, I'm not a Labor acolyte - it's the first time I've voted Labor since the ACT election in 2012 (and I've had plenty of by-elections in that time too!) - I'm just one of the millions that recognises great government, and I happen to be someone that also recognises the brilliance of the politics.

 

[Maggie5]

No, there is no justifying Labor's implication that Matt Guy is indirectly killing people. But, I am not surprised, and I am not surprised even in the slightest. When Daniel Andrews leads a party - this is what you get. When Abbott led the Liberals, a similar tale - toxic and rusted on supporters will justify it. I will say this again. No matter what the excuse, there is NO justification for the Labor ads accusing Guy of killing people. Now, lets put this in context as well, I initially replied to you having a whinge about the Liberals running the most negative ads, and perhaps their ads were negative. But their ads were nothing in comparison to the negative ads that the Andrews government ran. Andrews ran ads that were typical of the type of person he is. He will win at any costs and he does not care. I hate him like I hate Abbott and Putin, they are all cut from the same cloth. They will justify anything, and turns out so will their supporters, case in point - yourself.

Can you link one of the ads where Andrews accused Guy of murder as I must have missed it.

- but true legacy is the Metro Tunnel, or the 29 level crossings that are already gone, or the open spaces around those level crossings, or the improved travel times on the Tulla. Without having a single politicians name on any of it, these things are all a living, breathing monument and a positive advertisement for the Andrews government.

What I really liked about Andrews when he went through the things he intends to do is, I heard him say: "I know I won't be around to cut the ribbon on many projects but they need doing ".

 

[eth-dog]

No, there is no justifying Labor's implication that Matt Guy is indirectly killing people. But, I am not surprised, and I am not surprised even in the slightest. When Daniel Andrews leads a party - this is what you get. When Abbott led the Liberals, a similar tale - toxic and rusted on supporters will justify it. I will say this again. No matter what the excuse, there is NO justification for the Labor ads accusing Guy of killing people. Now, lets put this in context as well, I initially replied to you having a whinge about the Liberals running the most negative ads, and perhaps their ads were negative. But their ads were nothing in comparison to the negative ads that the Andrews government ran. Andrews ran ads that were typical of the type of person he is. He will win at any costs and he does not care. I hate him like I hate Abbott and Putin, they are all cut from the same cloth. They will justify anything, and turns out so will their supporters, case in point - yourself.

More spin and putting words in my mouth. I wasn't whinging about Liberals putting out negative ads, I was pointing out that the Andrews government were running positive ads, something that seems to have gone over your head. You can justify it to yourself however you like but comparing Andrews to Putin and Abbott? This is what people expect from the fanatical right.

Oh and FWIW, I'm not an ALP voter. So keep trying. It's entertaining.

 

[Farm Boy]

More spin and putting words in my mouth. I wasn't whinging about Liberals putting out negative ads, I was pointing out that the Andrews government were running positive ads, something that seems to have gone over your head. You can justify it to yourself however you like but comparing Andrews to Putin and Abbott? This is what people expect from the fanatical right.

Oh and FWIW, I'm not an ALP voter. So keep trying. It's entertaining.

Those on the fanatical right love Abbott and Putin about as much as you love Daniel Andrews. If you read anything that I'd written you'd understand that it could be left, right, or otherwise, but individuals like Andrews, Abbott and Putin - they justify anything. They all have their believers. You are an Andrew's believer, but I bet if the label was on the other party you'd be quick to criticise similar tactics. I never said you were an ALP voter, but anyone who justifies Andrew's negative Matthew Guy ads is hardly an unbias participant in this discussion.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

It's looking like pre polling has heavily favoured the libs, a lot of those eastern seats that were called to the ALP are now comfortable for the libs or have been brought back to the in doubt category. They will gain ringwood, box hill and burwood by my calculations but the others will stay liberal imo. So instead of a bloodbath the Andrew's government will be win comfortably 53-54 to 30 or something like that.

The number of seats is one thing. But when you're in opposition, you've had four years to plan your tactics, you've had cheerleaders in the biggest daily paper and the biggest commercial radio station (I believe) and you fail to gain a seat, lose plenty and have eye popping swings against you in basically every seat that was held by Liberal or Labor, that's a bloodbath. A failure across the board by everyone responsible for making decisions for the Victorian Liberal Party.

"Our team did a great job, they ran a terrific campaign..." you simply can't believe that if you're a Liberal member or supporter. Matthew Guy's speech on Saturday night was a bit like a Chris Scott press conference following a poor performance: you understand why he can't tell it like it is, but you seriously hope he's not that deluded behind closed doors.

That it looks like they'll hold Hawthorn and Brighton by the skin of their teeth is irrelevant. Those seats were never expected to be tight and they nearly lost them, including to a pretty clear 'anyone but Liberal' candidate in Brighton.

 

[Chameleon75]

I've been waiting to see the Greens slide for some time. Having regularly witnessed them bullying staffers, and debating and voting on proposals at my local Council, and being aghast at the hypocrisy of some of their decisions - made to appease inner Melbourne residents who mouth platitudes about the environment and social justice, but dont actually want anything to change around them.

The cynicism they showed in my seat at the last Federal election, by paying people of African appearance to hand out how to vote cards on the day - one of whom when pressed admitted he was not a member of the party and had been in the country two weeks!

And now we are learning more about their less than perfect culture.

Many of my friends vote Green in the forlorn, if naive belief, that they are the party of integrity and the saviours of the planet. If only that were the case.

Small L liberals on bikes