Geographically, sure. In culture, it's extremely different. The only place in SEQ I'd argue is similar in culture to Byron is somewhere like Maleny.
Qld Queensland State Election 2024
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We all know the truth.
It bad when the other side uses it. When it's our side, it's a smart tactic.
South east queensland has heaps of places that are wildy care free, deeply anti vaxer and have an unusual affinity for purple crystals just like byron. Maleny, mt tamborine, numerous parts of the gold coast (pretty much most of the gold coast outside of surfers and broadbeach). And that doesnt even count the areas that voted greens at the last federal election in brisbane.
Plus pretty much most of the people living in the byron shire and visiting the byron shire are ex south east queenslanders.
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Its a scare campaign if its not their policy but the other party is pretending it is.
You dont have to knock it on the head (we all know the fringes in both parties dont like things knocked on the head even though in reality we all know it aint happening). There simply isnt a big enough religious vote to unwind abortion policy in any state in australia.
The policies are the ones they are running on. I.e. mostly on anti crime. And not wasting billions building stadiums and then tearing them down again for the olympics.
The one area which labor should of really focused on was nuclear plants.
The qld libs might not be campaigning on nuclear plants but given the fed libs are and planning on putting two in south east qld then labor really should of pushed this hard. We all know the qld libs arent going to fight against the fed libs when push comes to shove.
The qld libs might not be campaigning on nuclear plants but given the fed libs are and planning on putting two in south east qld then labor really should of pushed this hard. We all know the qld libs arent going to fight against the fed libs when push comes to shove.
Educated people know more about their SUBJECT than other people. There are educated people in this World who I wouldn't believe if they told me the time.
I've met more than my share of ( Tertiary ) educated morons. A common theme with many is they seem to think they're the smartest person in the room.
And I do have a Tertiary education. Don’t conflate education with intelligence. In many cases it’s just persistence.
And in the ALP context I mentioned above, I definitely believe it to be a bad thing.
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- Dec 7, 2001
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not politically though, straight lnp for years.
I feel like the stereotype of Byron, and Greens voters, being "deeply anti-vaxer" is severely overblown. The Greens were staunchly pro-vax and pro-lockdown all through the pandemic. Those who are anti-vax tend to be quite militant about it, and I imagine they'd have chosen to give their first preference to one of the numerous fringe anti-vax parties instead.
In Richmond, the electorate Byron Bay is in, in 2022 the Libertarians (formerly Liberal Democrats), One Nation, UAP and HEART (formerly IMOP) all ran, all of whom were anti-vax to varying degrees, plus three independents, which may have included at least one anti-vax candidate. But the primary votes of all of these candidates combined was still less than the Greens primary.
On top of which, a very large amount of the anti-vax crowd came from right-wing conspiracists who never voted Greens to begin with. Byron has some of those too, just like everywhere else.
Maleny yes, Tamborine Mountain yes, but these places are not that big, nowhere near the scale of Byron and surrounds.
But the Gold Coast? What on earth? Most of the Gold Coast outside of those areas is solidly LNP-voting suburbia. The retirees who live there by and large do not tend to be hippies.
Malent and Tamborine Mountain are very different beasts to the inner city. They're full of elderly tree changer environmentalists, rather than young inner-city professionals with a big focus on social and economic justice in addition to environmental issues. They are two groups who arrived at the same political destination from different starring points.
Got sources to support that conclusion?
No, Labor did exactly the right thing in a political sense. Abortion is a much more emotive issue and represents a bigger weakness in the LNP armour than nuclear energy. Opinion polls show the public are a lot less anti-nuclear than they used to be, but everyone outside of hardcore religious people (a dwindling percentage) are in favour of abortion being legal.
And it works as a scare campaign because people take one look at America where conservatives are making people's lives worse to play out their culture war, and a small part of their mind wonders if our conservatives would do the same if they had the chance. And the LNP not coming out with a strong denial instantly has turned a spark into a flame.
Where, Maleny? The seats it's in vote LNP overall but Maleny itself voted Greens on primaries and ALP by two party preferred in 2022.
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I think the problem is some act like they're superior and talk down to the less educated.
And the LNP, federally, have had a very good view of how to COUNTER that particular scare campaign.
It shouldn't take any more than 1 sentence.
And it REALLY shouldn't be hard to sort out the "Ultra-Christians" within the machine.
For instance - "Do you want to win? Or would you prefer to give yourselves a chance of alienating 50% of the population and shooting ourselves in the foot over what should NOT be an issue".
- Jan 12, 2008
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Up until now, I've refrained from offering my two cents because 1) I was busy with work and 2) sentiment on the ground was seemingly changing quickly, contradicting polls from even two weeks ago.
My thoughts:
1) I noted back in January that unless the ALP was perceived as uniquely crappy (ala Bligh 2012), the LNP ran a very good campaign (Borbidge), or at least had a candidate with a sound urban reputation (Newman), the QLD ALP would hold on. I still think they have a decent chance of holding on.
2) Are the ALP perceived as uniquely crappy? Maybe in certain regional areas (Townsville/Ipswich/Rockhampton/Mackay), but certainly not in Brisbane from what I've seen, with many on the ground not feeling the 'baseball bat' sentiment. In my (admittedly safe ALP) suburban seat (Sandgate), I've seen ALP posters around the place, but no LNP ones. Steven Miles has also implemented some policies (50 cent fares) which have helped Brisbane's residents deal with cost-of-living issues.
Winning elections in QLD is difficult if you cannot crack Brisbane, and Crisafulli IMO hasn't done that.
3) I thought that the LNP actually had the right idea - run a small-target campaign exploiting a culture of complaint - but the execution's flawed because 1) the complaint relates to youth crime, which resonates with many regional Queenslanders - understandably because the ALP have ostensibly not taken regional youth crime seriously - but not all regional Queenslanders, and generally not Brisbanites, 2) Crisafulli has been wedged on the abortion issue, which will hurt him among Brisbane women and 3) Miles has IMO run a much better campaign, appearing more avuncular than the apparently aloof Crisafulli. This contrasts 1995, when Borbidge ran rings around Goss.
4) This election has many similarities to the 2019 federal election - the opposition start in a commanding position, but fumble the ball while the incumbent gains momentum.
5) Like everyone else, I see a large swing to the LNP occurring, but concentrated in certain regional areas, since the sentiment in Cairns seemingly contrasts Townsville, Mackay or even Rockhampton. Said swing will also occur in seats the LNP already holds. Just like 1995, except 1) Brisbane has grown since in relative terms, and 2) Borbidge ran a better campaign than Crisafulli. Although the anti-Crisafulli swing will largely affect Brisbane's ALP seats, so this cuts both ways.
6) In 1995, Goss held more seats, but OPV probably exacerbated the swing he experienced. While I expect a large overall swing against the ALP, compulsory preferential voting should lessen its effects. Moreover, Queenslanders loathed Keating, and that hurt Goss. Albo isn't exactly popular in QLD, but he isn't a hate figure.
7) The Greens will preference the ALP more aggressively because they don't want Crisafulli and his potentially anti-abortionist platform in power. 85/15 to 90/10 seems right. However, they've lacked political and strategic sense (harassing incoming voters by making questionable claims - "Greens invented Medicare!"). In an urban seat like McConnell, that'll just strengthen the ALP's position and erode your overall PV, Greenies.
8) ON have apparently performed better by not advocating for open borders like they did in 2020, and Hanson dislikes Crisafulli. ON PVs will flow towards him, but not by as much as Crisafulli would like.
9) The KAP are wildcards. They clearly don't like the LNP, for they brought that whole abortion debate into issue. Moreover, they've only preference LNP over ALP for pragmatic reasons in the Townsville seats, correctly reasoning that the locals disliked the ALP more. Some have said that the ALP plan to run dead and let KAP fight the LNP directly, especially since some of the locals haven't quite forgiven Crisafulli for going to the Gold Coast.
10) QLD polls are unreliable, and seat polls are even more so. The momentum, and feeling on the ground, makes me think that the ALP will outperform the final Newspoll - especially since the prospect of an LNP minority government with ON/KAP support would not thrill Brisbane voters (nor myself). Admittedly, an ALP government with GRN support would appall the regionals, and might get the LNP over the line in 2028 if they pick the right candidate (Schrinner?).
11) Should the LNP win, Borbidge being propped up by ON and Joh-era types badly undermined his government and his subsequent election performance, and Crisafulli will suffer the same. Queenslanders have permanent interests, not permanent friends, and that includes ON and KAP.
12) Who wins? I've usually found that when a party is just about expected to win/retain power despite the opposition enjoying strong momentum, the opposite occurs, especially given QLD's penchant for hard swings despite their classic conservatism. The LNP's saving grace are that there are many regional seats potentially in play (and I'm not sure how much momentum Miles has generated up there), that this poll result is poorer for the incumbent than the other two examples were, Crisafulli is technically an urban candidate, and that the seat swing issue affects both sides.
13) I dislike seat-by-seat polling, but I'll weigh in because there are many apparently in play (bold = likely LNP win, italics = possible LNP win, underline = likely ALP retain:
Ipswich West
The LNP win was in a by-election, when anti-ALP sentiment was far more negative, so I'd expect the ALP to take this one back, since Ipswich is an ALP stronghold. Ipswich does have a crime problem, though.
Bundaberg
Yep, even Springborg won this one.
Nicklin
This seat is filled with retirees and is held on a razor-thin margin. That said, the electorate's MP is apparently popular, but the LNP should still win this.
Hervey Bay
2020 was an anomaly. The retiree vote will decide this one.
Caloundra
Ditto.
Barron River
The significant Green presence offsets the ON presence. Moreover, the anti-ALP sentiment in Cairns is not nearly as strong as in Townsville/Mackay/Rockhampton. Borbidge did win this seat in 1995, but he ran a better campaign than Crisafulli, and also didn't abandon them for the Gold Coast. Northern Queenslanders are even more parochial than Brisbanites and so don't appreciate betrayal. So the LNP have a 25% chance of winning.
Townsville
But to KAP or LNP?
Thurginowa
Ditto.
Mundingburra
Ditto.
Redlands
Another Springborg seat, and formerly led by Andrew Laming of federal LNP 'fame'.
Aspley
Could go either way. Apparently, Bridgeman Downs has been cold, but not hostile. Not that encouraging, but not a sure loss, either.
Pumicestone
Not sure why the LNP would run a young, non-white girl in an electorate with plenty of white retirees who often vote ON? They'd find Ali King more relatable. And the beach bum crowd won't care about her, either. Nor did Pumicestone vote for Springborg in 2009.
Cairns
An ALP stronghold, and they've explicitly distanced themselves from Townsville/Mackay/Rockhampton.
Keppel
Traditional ALP stronghold; would depend on how much the youth crime thing has resonated there.
Redcliffe
Some Adelaide dude thought this could fall, but Yvette D'Ath is a popular MP. Shows how important local knowledge can be.
Mackay
Could fall despite being a traditional ALP stronghold, but healthcare seemingly matters more to their voters than youth crime...and Crisafulli has lost momentum. If QLD voters aren't sure, they're not voting for you.
Pine Rivers
Said Adelaide dude listed this seat, but I can't figure out why. Dutton would be better known in Pine Rivers than before, but that doesn't mean they'll vote in Crisafulli.
Capalaba
Said Adelaide dude strikes again.
Mansfield
The LNP have about a 25% chance of winning. Borbidge won this seat in 1995, and Springborg reduced the margin in 2009. The abortion stuff might appeal since this is a 'bible-beat' seat, but I think cost-of-living matters more, and the margin should be too large for a sputtering Crisafulli campaign to overcome.
Gaven
It's close, but I favour the ALP. Scanlon is apparently a well-regarded member, and supposed LNP-supporting locals outright fighting with Crisafulli over cuts to health isn't a promising sign.
Springwood
Said Adelaide dude strikes again. This was lost to Borbidge in 1995, but that was down to the Logan Highway issue. Youth crime has been an issue, but Crisafulli otherwise hasn't run a strong enough campaign to dislodge an ALP safe seat.
Rockhampton
Two weeks ago, I would have said yes. Youth crime has been an issue here, but again I think healthcare might be a bigger one. And Rockhampton has been an ALP stronghold, so if there's enough doubt, then they won't change.
Everton
A possible smoky for the ALP, given that the MP is a known socon on a narrow margin. The abortion stuff might actually hurt him. Still between 25-30% chance.
I don't expect Chatsworth and even Clayfield to fall, because their members have a strong personal vote and Tim Nicholls is apparently relatively pro-choice?
Mirani doesn't really count because the KAP would support LNP in minority government, anyway. I don't like the Greens' chances in McConnell because they're apparently not making the best impression, but even if they won there (and in Cooper), they'd support the ALP in a minority government anyway.
The ALP has a 75% chance of winning at least 36 seats, with the Greens maybe taking Cooper. I think their chance of winning 37-456 seats is above 25%. The LNP has a 75% chance of winning at least 42 seats, assuming I haven't badly misread the Townsville seats, or that there's no last-minute change caused by Crisafulli's floundering.
This looks like another 1995 election - e.g. involving the incumbent being hurt by key issues in certain seats, alongside mean reversion. However, while the incumbent has the momentum this time, the LNP still have a better chance of forming government. I'd say a 70% chance though, not the 85%+ chance that it looked like being even two weeks ago, if only because both Miles and Crisafuli could receive swings in the wrong seats. Make no mistake though, this election is pretty tightly contested, and if I was Crisafulli, I'd be nervous.
I would appreciate Borisdog weighing in, and I must thank everyone who read this novella.
My thoughts:
1) I noted back in January that unless the ALP was perceived as uniquely crappy (ala Bligh 2012), the LNP ran a very good campaign (Borbidge), or at least had a candidate with a sound urban reputation (Newman), the QLD ALP would hold on. I still think they have a decent chance of holding on.
2) Are the ALP perceived as uniquely crappy? Maybe in certain regional areas (Townsville/Ipswich/Rockhampton/Mackay), but certainly not in Brisbane from what I've seen, with many on the ground not feeling the 'baseball bat' sentiment. In my (admittedly safe ALP) suburban seat (Sandgate), I've seen ALP posters around the place, but no LNP ones. Steven Miles has also implemented some policies (50 cent fares) which have helped Brisbane's residents deal with cost-of-living issues.
Winning elections in QLD is difficult if you cannot crack Brisbane, and Crisafulli IMO hasn't done that.
3) I thought that the LNP actually had the right idea - run a small-target campaign exploiting a culture of complaint - but the execution's flawed because 1) the complaint relates to youth crime, which resonates with many regional Queenslanders - understandably because the ALP have ostensibly not taken regional youth crime seriously - but not all regional Queenslanders, and generally not Brisbanites, 2) Crisafulli has been wedged on the abortion issue, which will hurt him among Brisbane women and 3) Miles has IMO run a much better campaign, appearing more avuncular than the apparently aloof Crisafulli. This contrasts 1995, when Borbidge ran rings around Goss.
4) This election has many similarities to the 2019 federal election - the opposition start in a commanding position, but fumble the ball while the incumbent gains momentum.
5) Like everyone else, I see a large swing to the LNP occurring, but concentrated in certain regional areas, since the sentiment in Cairns seemingly contrasts Townsville, Mackay or even Rockhampton. Said swing will also occur in seats the LNP already holds. Just like 1995, except 1) Brisbane has grown since in relative terms, and 2) Borbidge ran a better campaign than Crisafulli. Although the anti-Crisafulli swing will largely affect Brisbane's ALP seats, so this cuts both ways.
6) In 1995, Goss held more seats, but OPV probably exacerbated the swing he experienced. While I expect a large overall swing against the ALP, compulsory preferential voting should lessen its effects. Moreover, Queenslanders loathed Keating, and that hurt Goss. Albo isn't exactly popular in QLD, but he isn't a hate figure.
7) The Greens will preference the ALP more aggressively because they don't want Crisafulli and his potentially anti-abortionist platform in power. 85/15 to 90/10 seems right. However, they've lacked political and strategic sense (harassing incoming voters by making questionable claims - "Greens invented Medicare!"). In an urban seat like McConnell, that'll just strengthen the ALP's position and erode your overall PV, Greenies.
8) ON have apparently performed better by not advocating for open borders like they did in 2020, and Hanson dislikes Crisafulli. ON PVs will flow towards him, but not by as much as Crisafulli would like.
9) The KAP are wildcards. They clearly don't like the LNP, for they brought that whole abortion debate into issue. Moreover, they've only preference LNP over ALP for pragmatic reasons in the Townsville seats, correctly reasoning that the locals disliked the ALP more. Some have said that the ALP plan to run dead and let KAP fight the LNP directly, especially since some of the locals haven't quite forgiven Crisafulli for going to the Gold Coast.
10) QLD polls are unreliable, and seat polls are even more so. The momentum, and feeling on the ground, makes me think that the ALP will outperform the final Newspoll - especially since the prospect of an LNP minority government with ON/KAP support would not thrill Brisbane voters (nor myself). Admittedly, an ALP government with GRN support would appall the regionals, and might get the LNP over the line in 2028 if they pick the right candidate (Schrinner?).
11) Should the LNP win, Borbidge being propped up by ON and Joh-era types badly undermined his government and his subsequent election performance, and Crisafulli will suffer the same. Queenslanders have permanent interests, not permanent friends, and that includes ON and KAP.
12) Who wins? I've usually found that when a party is just about expected to win/retain power despite the opposition enjoying strong momentum, the opposite occurs, especially given QLD's penchant for hard swings despite their classic conservatism. The LNP's saving grace are that there are many regional seats potentially in play (and I'm not sure how much momentum Miles has generated up there), that this poll result is poorer for the incumbent than the other two examples were, Crisafulli is technically an urban candidate, and that the seat swing issue affects both sides.
13) I dislike seat-by-seat polling, but I'll weigh in because there are many apparently in play (bold = likely LNP win, italics = possible LNP win, underline = likely ALP retain:
Ipswich West
The LNP win was in a by-election, when anti-ALP sentiment was far more negative, so I'd expect the ALP to take this one back, since Ipswich is an ALP stronghold. Ipswich does have a crime problem, though.
Bundaberg
Yep, even Springborg won this one.
Nicklin
This seat is filled with retirees and is held on a razor-thin margin. That said, the electorate's MP is apparently popular, but the LNP should still win this.
Hervey Bay
2020 was an anomaly. The retiree vote will decide this one.
Caloundra
Ditto.
Barron River
The significant Green presence offsets the ON presence. Moreover, the anti-ALP sentiment in Cairns is not nearly as strong as in Townsville/Mackay/Rockhampton. Borbidge did win this seat in 1995, but he ran a better campaign than Crisafulli, and also didn't abandon them for the Gold Coast. Northern Queenslanders are even more parochial than Brisbanites and so don't appreciate betrayal. So the LNP have a 25% chance of winning.
Townsville
But to KAP or LNP?
Thurginowa
Ditto.
Mundingburra
Ditto.
Redlands
Another Springborg seat, and formerly led by Andrew Laming of federal LNP 'fame'.
Aspley
Could go either way. Apparently, Bridgeman Downs has been cold, but not hostile. Not that encouraging, but not a sure loss, either.
Pumicestone
Not sure why the LNP would run a young, non-white girl in an electorate with plenty of white retirees who often vote ON? They'd find Ali King more relatable. And the beach bum crowd won't care about her, either. Nor did Pumicestone vote for Springborg in 2009.
Cairns
An ALP stronghold, and they've explicitly distanced themselves from Townsville/Mackay/Rockhampton.
Keppel
Traditional ALP stronghold; would depend on how much the youth crime thing has resonated there.
Redcliffe
Some Adelaide dude thought this could fall, but Yvette D'Ath is a popular MP. Shows how important local knowledge can be.
Mackay
Could fall despite being a traditional ALP stronghold, but healthcare seemingly matters more to their voters than youth crime...and Crisafulli has lost momentum. If QLD voters aren't sure, they're not voting for you.
Pine Rivers
Said Adelaide dude listed this seat, but I can't figure out why. Dutton would be better known in Pine Rivers than before, but that doesn't mean they'll vote in Crisafulli.
Capalaba
Said Adelaide dude strikes again.
Mansfield
The LNP have about a 25% chance of winning. Borbidge won this seat in 1995, and Springborg reduced the margin in 2009. The abortion stuff might appeal since this is a 'bible-beat' seat, but I think cost-of-living matters more, and the margin should be too large for a sputtering Crisafulli campaign to overcome.
Gaven
It's close, but I favour the ALP. Scanlon is apparently a well-regarded member, and supposed LNP-supporting locals outright fighting with Crisafulli over cuts to health isn't a promising sign.
Springwood
Said Adelaide dude strikes again. This was lost to Borbidge in 1995, but that was down to the Logan Highway issue. Youth crime has been an issue, but Crisafulli otherwise hasn't run a strong enough campaign to dislodge an ALP safe seat.
Rockhampton
Two weeks ago, I would have said yes. Youth crime has been an issue here, but again I think healthcare might be a bigger one. And Rockhampton has been an ALP stronghold, so if there's enough doubt, then they won't change.
Everton
A possible smoky for the ALP, given that the MP is a known socon on a narrow margin. The abortion stuff might actually hurt him. Still between 25-30% chance.
I don't expect Chatsworth and even Clayfield to fall, because their members have a strong personal vote and Tim Nicholls is apparently relatively pro-choice?
Mirani doesn't really count because the KAP would support LNP in minority government, anyway. I don't like the Greens' chances in McConnell because they're apparently not making the best impression, but even if they won there (and in Cooper), they'd support the ALP in a minority government anyway.
The ALP has a 75% chance of winning at least 36 seats, with the Greens maybe taking Cooper. I think their chance of winning 37-456 seats is above 25%. The LNP has a 75% chance of winning at least 42 seats, assuming I haven't badly misread the Townsville seats, or that there's no last-minute change caused by Crisafulli's floundering.
This looks like another 1995 election - e.g. involving the incumbent being hurt by key issues in certain seats, alongside mean reversion. However, while the incumbent has the momentum this time, the LNP still have a better chance of forming government. I'd say a 70% chance though, not the 85%+ chance that it looked like being even two weeks ago, if only because both Miles and Crisafuli could receive swings in the wrong seats. Make no mistake though, this election is pretty tightly contested, and if I was Crisafulli, I'd be nervous.
I would appreciate Borisdog weighing in, and I must thank everyone who read this novella.
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- Jan 12, 2008
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Courier Mail exit poll of 2000 voters showing a Labor majority...
QLD exit polls are none too reliable.
Wait for the real poll.
This has the sniff of an upset.
Wouldn't be the first time that a crime-heavy platform bombs.
Wouldn't be the first time that a crime-heavy platform bombs.
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Crime is down, but CCTV footage of crimes is up.
Ring cameras on sale at Bunnings is the main driver of this narrative.
Ring cameras on sale at Bunnings is the main driver of this narrative.
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Laura Norder campaigns often don't work, but I think they would get a solid majority if they ran a competent campaign regardless. Not on the level of 2012 - this ALP government wasn't as bad as Bligh's government, nor does Crisafulli enjoy Newman's then-reputation in Brisbane.
Maybe speaking too soon, but this feels a bit like Trump vs Hillary, or even 2019 - the favourite gives the underdog a window, and the underdog goes through it. Though that often doesn't happen so you can't call the underdog favourites from the off because too much needs to go right.
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What's your evidence?
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Those are juvenile crime stats. But if you want to pretend crime in QLD is down, then just look at these stats
Queensland Crime Statistics - Queensland Police News
An interactive graphic display of Queensland Crime Statistics. myPolice news, alerts, videos and community information from the Queensland Police Service.
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Those are juvenile crime stats. But if you want to pretend crime in QLD is down, then just look at these stats
Queensland Crime Statistics - Queensland Police News
An interactive graphic display of Queensland Crime Statistics. myPolice news, alerts, videos and community information from the Queensland Police Service.mypolice.qld.gov.au
I live in QLD and have done heaps less crime this year.
Here's the first graph on your link lol
Bundaberg called for the ALP.
LNP looking short of majority at this rate - far too many seats they should be picking up tracking poorly.
ALP seem to be copping some punishment in outer Brisbane, but not enough to drop anything.
LNP looking short of majority at this rate - far too many seats they should be picking up tracking poorly.
ALP seem to be copping some punishment in outer Brisbane, but not enough to drop anything.
Libs already playing down chances of win on ABC. their polling must be bad. This loss still won't convince them that going right won't win.
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