Richmond - time for a rebuild?

[BigVic]

It reminds me a lot of Hawthorn adding Mitchell and O'Meara. They even got one bounce back year where it all fell into place and they made top 4. But 6 years later they had to move those guys on and start again. And Hawthorn absolutely nailes some random late picks (Mitch Lewis and Newcombe) along the way, yet you still wouldn't wager on them being finals bound next year or even after that

The Hawks added in Vickery as part of that 2016 trade

 

[My Tilly]

For a start, our list cannot be horrible if it has basically won 3 flags and a minor Premiership. A lot of those players are past their best now but that was inevitable.

Lynch if he struggles will be new. He has never struggled yet and Richmond has only really seen elite performance from him. If his foot doesn't allow him to perform near his best then this is a chance to occur with any elite footballer, and it is just bad luck you cannot legislate for.

Richmond's list quality going forward will live or die to a large extent by the development of our young players, and our ability to find another couple of strong marquee salary players to join the likes of Bolton, Balta, Taranto and Hopper after the Lynch and Martin and Prestia contracts expire(the latter 2 after 2024, the former after 2025.) The club will no doubt be working on a marquee key forward and possibly a quality inside/outside mid as we speak.

In terms of the rest of the list, there is no real reason to be concerned about our deep pool of young players. They haven't had the greatest of seasons in 2023 for various reasons, but we look to have a potential marquee kpp in Gibcus. And the following list of young players 22 and below who have shown promise:

Ross, Ryan, Cumberland, Coulthard, Ralphsmith, Bauer, Rioli jnr, Sonsie, Banks, Brown, Clarke. This looks a decent contingent in terms of being able to fill out the 7-12 ranked players on our list as they mature.

So don't panic my friend, we have a couple of challenges like most clubs, but all will be well.

But you won a flag 3 seasons ago and have now missed finals twice in three years.

Ross is no different to Parfitt and Cumberland, Ralphsmith, Rioli, Ryan are battlers who wouldn't get games at any other clubs other than West Coast.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

Brisbane Lions played in 4 GFs in a row, winning 3 flags from 2001-2004. The following season they finished 11th. For the next 14 seasons, except for 2009, they finished well down the ladder. They were fortunate to find talented players and form them into a premiership winning unit. Trouble is, while they were enjoying their success, they weren't able to draft quality juniors, and eventually all their senior players retired at the same time.

Hawthorn went through a similar period after their 3-peat, haven't played finals since 2018. Clarko understood he would lose a nucleus of the team all at once and tried weeding out senior players and bringing in younger ones. It didn't work, and now Mitchell is pretty much starting afresh.

I can see Richmond going through a similar period in the next couple of years. West Coast are in a similar position. Rebuilding takes courage, skill, and a lot of good fortune. Most football supporters don't understand this and just choose to ridicule, using the hackneyed old phrase "tanking". The bottom line is, somebody has to be near the bottom of the table, only the poorly run clubs are there for lengthy periods of time.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

But you won a flag 3 seasons ago and have now missed finals twice in three years.

Ross is no different to Parfitt and Cumberland, Ralphsmith, Rioli, Ryan are battlers who wouldn't get games at any other clubs other than West Coast.

Making conclusive judgements on how good players are aged 18 19 20 21 22 is a notoriously perilous pursuit.

In 2016 David King described Richmond, along with Carlton, as having the two worst lists in the AFL. Once Richmond's list was finalised after the 2016 season, cue players coming from absolutely nowhere to be crucial parts of our 3 flags in the next 4 years...Castagna, Butler, Broad, Lambert, Short, Graham, McIntosh, Bolton and even players like Astbury weren't exactly winning rave reviews. Those, bar Graham and Bolton had already been on the list in 2016, and along with Grimes, Edwards, Townsend, Grigg, Houli were not rated at all. And our stars were also criticised broadly for not delivering. Not too many of those players looked much to write home about in their first 4-5 years or more in the system.

If you look through other successful teams you will see a very similar picture. How many of Geelong's 2022 flag team looked above the ordinary up to the age of 22?

Richmond has quietly gotten 223 games combined into our players 22yo or less at this point in time, all of those games at Richmond. Geelong's corresponding figure is well below this, around 150 games, (counting just games played at Geelong, and around a similar level if you count Henry's and Bruhn's games elsewhere) Your Geelong system games are mainly concentrated into 2 players, DeKoning and Holmes.

Some of our youngsters won't amount to much, but there is no reason not to believe that several should become very good players, and we have 12 players 23yo or younger who have played at least 10 games of AFL football. Geelong has 4.

We just need to wait to see how these guys turn out. But at the point people start calling them all spuds, you can just about bet a load of them will then go on to prove their doubters wrong.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I would say Richmond needed 2 bigger bodied mature inside mids for sure. Next year Hopper may get a good run and Taranto has issues and getting the second guy will look sensible. The fact they knew each other and were used to playing together and they were affordable just made it a no-brainer for mine.

Even if it turns out Hopper never plays so well with us, this is not something you could be expected to foresee given his record. In 2016 Richmond spent 1st, 2nd and 3rd round draft picks on Prestia, Caddy and Nankervis. Getting Prestia and Caddy who had played together probably had certain benefits to those two players, but also in attracting Lynch later, who they had played with. After that experience I can't really see how Richmond should be refusing to get Hopper and Taranto as a job lot. It won't work out every time, but it is a sound strategy to deploy imo.

Fair enough personally feel you only needed one and then head to the draft for best available mid

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Brisbane Lions played in 4 GFs in a row, winning 3 flags from 2001-2004. The following season they finished 11th. For the next 14 seasons, except for 2009, they finished well down the ladder. They were fortunate to find talented players and form them into a premiership winning unit. Trouble is, while they were enjoying their success, they weren't able to draft quality juniors, and eventually all their senior players retired at the same time.

Hawthorn went through a similar period after their 3-peat, haven't played finals since 2018. Clarko understood he would lose a nucleus of the team all at once and tried weeding out senior players and bringing in younger ones. It didn't work, and now Mitchell is pretty much starting afresh.

I can see Richmond going through a similar period in the next couple of years. West Coast are in a similar position. Rebuilding takes courage, skill, and a lot of good fortune. Most football supporters don't understand this and just choose to ridicule, using the hackneyed old phrase "tanking". The bottom line is, somebody has to be near the bottom of the table, only the poorly run clubs are there for lengthy periods of time.

Richmond from their first flag year 2017 onwards have taken the following picks to the draft and gotten players that remain at the club:

2017 25 Balta, 63 Miller, Rookie Baker

2018 43 Ross

2019 21 Dow, 43 Cumberland, 46 Ralphsmith, 54 Nyuon MSD Pickett

2020 40 Ryan, F/S @ 51 M Rioli Jnr, Supplementary period Mansell

2021 9 Gibcus, 17 Brown, 28 Sonsie, 29 Banks, 30 Clarke

2022 MSD Bauer, 49 Smith, 55 Green, Rookie Campbell, Rookie Young, SP Bradtke

2023 MSD Coulthard, Trezise

Only Pickett 27 and Young 24 were older than 21 when drafted to the club in that period.

So maybe compare that with what the Hawks and Lions did coming through their dynasties before you are too damning.

Richmond also drafted in that time:

17 Higgins(traded at player request) 20 Coleman-Jones(traded at player request), 20 Collier-Dawkins(delisted) and several others drafted with later picks who have been delisted, Naish, English, Turner, Martyn, as well as Sydney Stack of course.

I know from looking at this before this is a lot different to what Brisbane and Hawthorn did. Richmond are likely to end up with about 12 long term AFL level players out of that lot.

 

[juss]

Brisbane Lions played in 4 GFs in a row, winning 3 flags from 2001-2004. The following season they finished 11th. For the next 14 seasons, except for 2009, they finished well down the ladder. They were fortunate to find talented players and form them into a premiership winning unit. Trouble is, while they were enjoying their success, they weren't able to draft quality juniors, and eventually all their senior players retired at the same time.

Hawthorn went through a similar period after their 3-peat, haven't played finals since 2018. Clarko understood he would lose a nucleus of the team all at once and tried weeding out senior players and bringing in younger ones. It didn't work, and now Mitchell is pretty much starting afresh.

I can see Richmond going through a similar period in the next couple of years. West Coast are in a similar position. Rebuilding takes courage, skill, and a lot of good fortune. Most football supporters don't understand this and just choose to ridicule, using the hackneyed old phrase "tanking". The bottom line is, somebody has to be near the bottom of the table, only the poorly run clubs are there for lengthy periods of time.

Sensible post.

The system is geared towards pulling the top sides down eventually and boosting the bottom sides up. It doesn't always play out that way, but sometimes it does.

If Richmond now have our turn at the bottom for a few years (as you said someone has to occupy the bottom spots) then so be it.

Any supporter in the land would take that if offered 3 flags in 4 years, and I'd much rather be doing time at the bottom after a successful period than after no success (e.g. North Melbourne or countless other clubs).

I do think we need a rebuild, it's already beginning and I imagine we'll see further steps taken at the end of 2023 that help accelerate it.

How long it takes is anyone's guess, but it's a pretty natural part of the AFL life cycle.

 

[old55]

From a post I made in another thread ...

I think it's safe to say that everyone on the Richmond list 29yo and older won't be playing in their next flag, that's everyone older and including Vlastuin. They are losing a lot of talent there.

Richmond have a decent crop of 23-28yo: Nankervis, Short, Hopper, Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Bolton and Balta, but apart from Bolton, none of them are match-winners like Martin, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Lynch and Rance.

Their 18-23yos don't inspire any confidence. Even Geelong have a much better 18-23yo crop with De Koning, Bruhn, O.Henry, Holmes, Conway and Clark vs Richmond who honestly have no-one in that age range that I would swap for any of those Geelong players.

 

[BF Tiger]

Three flags, and now we take our medicine.

Paying what we will for Hopper isn’t the issue. Hopper is a proven player whereas pick 5, 6 or 7 is always speculative.

We’ve had eight of the past 10 years playing finals. That’s seen all our draft picks be late in each round.

 

[Thomas Erdody]

Richmond have a decent crop of 23-28yo: Nankervis, Short, Hopper, Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Bolton and Balta, but apart from Bolton, none of them are match-winners like Martin, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Lynch and Rance.

Besides me no one on BigFooty would've called Rance a match-winner at 23yrs old.

But I knew Rance was a future match-winner when he wasn't. It's like some people have never heard of improvement lol!

I'm telling ya Balta is a match-winner already, is our team as good now as it was when Rance was 23? No.

 

[tiger_tough]

From a post I made in another thread ...

I think it's safe to say that everyone on the Richmond list 29yo and older won't be playing in their next flag, that's everyone older and including Vlastuin. They are losing a lot of talent there.

Richmond have a decent crop of 23-28yo: Nankervis, Short, Hopper, Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Bolton and Balta, but apart from Bolton, none of them are match-winners like Martin, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Lynch and Rance.

Their 18-23yos don't inspire any confidence. Even Geelong have a much better 18-23yo crop with De Koning, Bruhn, O.Henry, Holmes, Conway and Clark vs Richmond who honestly have no-one in that age range that I would swap for any of those Geelong players.

LOL get ya hand off it Daryl. Bit of perspective please. Nearly all those guys have stepped into a far superior Cats side over the last 3 seasons compared to ours who have scraped into finals once and missed twice so obviously it is easier to have an impact.

-De Koning did **** all until his 3rd season of footy. Josh Gibcus looked great as a 1st year KPD last year but was injured all this season. If you asked 100 neutral fans who they'd take after each players 1st year 99 of them would say Gibcus. Let's see how he goes next season but I'd say he'd lock down a KPP position in his 3rd year as SDK did.
-Bruhn has been okay in his 3rd year, nothing special. Tyler Sonsie is statistically nearly identical when compared to Bruhn over their short careers despite only being in his 2nd season and being injured this pre-season. Their VFL stats are also pretty much identical too.
-Ollie Henry and Noah Cumberland are also nearly identical statistically @ AFL level. Noah is a year older but lost a year to an ACL. Very similar statistically @ VFL too.
-Max Holmes I'll give you that one. Sam Banks is tracking well for a 2nd year. Jack Ross statistically much the same as Holmes since he locked down a wing spot this season but is a couple of years older.
-Conway. Who? Hasn't even played a game. Samson Ryan is a couple of years older but only 1 more year in the system as he was a mature age beanpole project player. Better @ VFL level and has shown some great signs @ AFL level and still quite raw.
-Clarke. I guess. Just okay at VFL level in his 1st year but highly rated junior.

It's pretty clear to anyone that has watched Richmond for a couple of years that some of Dimmas and Dimma mkII's favorites are being gifted games due to their history rather than their current performance. Mainly for this reason I'm hoping Mini doesn't get the top job and we can get some fresh eyes that will give games on merit.

Yes we overpaid for Hopper but we also underpaid for Taranto who has been great. While Dimma was our head coach, McQualter was our midfield coach and neither of them prioritized winning clearance and stoppage work at all. I'm hoping the next coach will do so. Bolton, Hopper, Taranto, Prestia SHOULD compete with any side at the coal face, but they dont currently.

Tom Lynch will be a huge asset to get back into the side next year.

The next coach will (hopefully) conjure up a gameplan that suits this current group rather than what worked 3-7 years ago.

How much can we expect from a team that has their checked-out coach walk out on them mid-season? Disappointing year over all but a bit of an asterisk year as far as I'm concerned. Has any team made finals or even improved on the year before when a coach has left halfway through a season? I doubt it.

 

[My Tilly]

LOL get ya hand off it Daryl. Bit of perspective please. Nearly all those guys have stepped into a far superior Cats side over the last 3 seasons compared to ours who have scraped into finals once and missed twice so obviously it is easier to have an impact.

-De Koning did * all until his 3rd season of footy. Josh Gibcus looked great as a 1st year KPD last year but was injured all this season. If you asked 100 neutral fans who they'd take after each players 1st year 99 of them would say Gibcus. Let's see how he goes next season but I'd say he'd lock down a KPP position in his 3rd year as SDK did.
-Bruhn has been okay in his 3rd year, nothing special. Tyler Sonsie is statistically nearly identical when compared to Bruhn over their short careers despite only being in his 2nd season and being injured this pre-season. Their VFL stats are also pretty much identical too.
-Ollie Henry and Noah Cumberland are also nearly identical statistically @ AFL level. Noah is a year older but lost a year to an ACL. Very similar statistically @ VFL too.
-Max Holmes I'll give you that one. Sam Banks is tracking well for a 2nd year. Jack Ross statistically much the same as Holmes since he locked down a wing spot this season but is a couple of years older.
-Conway. Who? Hasn't even played a game. Samson Ryan is a couple of years older but only 1 more year in the system as he was a mature age beanpole project player. Better @ VFL level and has shown some great signs @ AFL level and still quite raw.
-Clarke. I guess. Just okay at VFL level in his 1st year but highly rated junior.

It's pretty clear to anyone that has watched Richmond for a couple of years that some of Dimmas and Dimma mkII's favorites are being gifted games due to their history rather than their current performance. Mainly for this reason I'm hoping Mini doesn't get the top job and we can get some fresh eyes that will give games on merit.

Yes we overpaid for Hopper but we also underpaid for Taranto who has been great. While Dimma was our head coach, McQualter was our midfield coach and neither of them prioritized winning clearance and stoppage work at all. I'm hoping the next coach will do so. Bolton, Hopper, Taranto, Prestia SHOULD compete with any side at the coal face, but they dont currently.

Tom Lynch will be a huge asset to get back into the side next year.

The next coach will (hopefully) conjure up a gameplan that suits this current group rather than what worked 3-7 years ago.

How much can we expect from a team that has their checked-out coach walk out on them mid-season? Disappointing year over all but a bit of an asterisk year as far as I'm concerned. Has any team made finals or even improved on the year before when a coach has left halfway through a season? I doubt it.

De Koning is 22 and played 41 games. At 204cm, these types usually peak around 130-150 games.

Fair to say we have a beauty on our hands.

Gibcus is a slender build defender only 196cm tall and been in the system for a couple of years.
Wouldn't be getting your hopes up.

As for Conway and Clark, don't worry, you will know their names all too well shortly. Both are going to be guns for a decade.

 

[smish]

I've seen this film before.

 

[Coach_Required]

People love predicting Doom & Gloom.

Sure, we have a few tough years ahead of us, but would I swap it for winning 3 flags in 4 years? No way in hell.

Everyone compared our trade (Taranto & Hopper trade) to the Hawks trade (JOM & Mitchell) but I reckon we are closer to the Hawks (Scully & Wingard trade) list wise. We did draft 5 kids (top 30 draft) the year before, too early to say if they will be busts or not.

I know Hawthorn still have a little bit to go but you can't deny they aren't looking promising atm.

Hawks are rebuilding their list nicely.

2018 - (finished 4th) picks 52 & 63 with Scully & Wingard (you could say that is us right now with Taranto & Hopper with no first round pick, we still have our 2nd and 3rd rounders though)
2019 - (finished 9th) picks 13,29,57 with Frost & Patton (we wont be finishing 9th next year, probably bottom 4)
2020 - (finished 15th) picks 6,29,35,46 Hartigan & Phillips
2021- (finished 14th) picks 7,23,26,53
2022- (finished 13th) picks 7,18,37,46,51
2023 - (currently 16th) pick 3* getting pick 3 the way they are currently playing will be a bonus for them.

It's been a ride, its what makes footy alluring. All I'll say to those teams at the top atm is hope to hell you take the chances while you can because you dont stay up forever.

 

[btdg]

Besides me no one on BigFooty would've called Rance a match-winner at 23yrs old.

But I knew Rance was a future match-winner when he wasn't. It's like some people have never heard of improvement lol!

I'm telling ya Balta is a match-winner already, is our team as good now as it was when Rance was 23? No.

Interestingly, when Rance was 23 ypur team finished 12th out of 18, but two of the teams were expansion GWS and Gold Coast.

It might be fair to say your team was almost exactly as good then as it is now.

The question is around improvement and how much this geoup has coming though. It still feels like a group at the end of something rather than the start...

 

[Nuggets73]

Can see this playing out like Hawthorn at the end of 2016, paying a premium for players, believing your list still has the talent to win a flag.
… Only time will tell, but I wouldn’t be banking on Richmond being a finals threat for many years to come - reckon they made a bad misstep overrating their list at the end of 2022.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

The picks given up for Hopper were pick 34 in the 2022 draft, and Richmond's 2023 first round pick. That pick is as likely as not to land at around pick 9. That is not giving up a top 5 pick. When all is said and done Richmond will have given up the value of around pick 7 or 8 for Hopper. Let's say the high pick is pick 8. Below is the history of pick 8's since 1990. Hopper is probably likely to end up playing about 240 AFL games. Now I am going to say 3 of the last 6 pick 8's turn out more valuable than Hopper in the long term. Would you agree Hopper is a more valuable player than at least about 25 of these last 33 pick 8's? That is before we consider that Richmond(and the world) would have been expecting to be giving up about pick 15(+34) when they made the trade. There is no doubt pick 8 would be a valuable pick, but you are probably looking realistically at about a 30% chance at best to get a player better than Hopper judging by the long history of the selection. And let's not forget Hopper fills an area of desperate need for Richmond.


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Richmond aren’t getting 12-15 years of the level you are holding Hopper at (his 2021 form). They will get 7 years of injury prone B grader who will most likely never be within the best 30 mids in the game again.

I would take my chances at the draft for a 15 year player, and use the salary cap space elsewhere. FWIW if all results go the way of the favourite Richmond will hand over pick 6.

Taranto was a great recruit and one you would do again.

 

[smish]

People love predicting Doom & Gloom.

Sure, we have a few tough years ahead of us, but would I swap it for winning 3 flags in 4 years? No way in hell.

I’m guilty of being one predicting doom and gloom mate but agree 100% with this.

Anyone denying they would swap positions with Richmond fans after your recent success would be lying to themselves. Same goes with Hawthorn, West Coast, Geelong. It’s all worth it a hundred times over.

 

[Coach_Required]

I’m guilty of being one predicting doom and gloom mate but agree 100% with this.

Anyone denying they would swap positions with Richmond fans after your recent success would be lying to themselves. Same goes with Hawthorn, West Coast, Geelong. It’s all worth it a hundred times over.

Yeah, i dont take it too seriously. Some people's teams have never won a flag or won 1 flag in 30 years, 2 in 60 years. I always wondered how good it was to be a Hawks / Lions supporter 10/20 years ago, at least now I can somewhat understand.

It was bloody fantastic.

 

[tiger_tough]

De Koning is 22 and played 41 games. At 204cm, these types usually peak around 130-150 games.

Fair to say we have a beauty on our hands.

Gibcus is a slender build defender only 196cm tall and been in the system for a couple of years.
Wouldn't be getting your hopes up.

As for Conway and Clark, don't worry, you will know their names all too well shortly. Both are going to be guns for a decade.

I'm not disputing that SDK is a gun now. But no one expected the gigantic leap he took after his 2nd season. Gibcus was tracking beautifully for a 1st year kpd at afl level and was a higher rated junior. It's not an unrealistic comparison. He's been out since February with a hammy issue so can't judge him on this year. Not get our hopes up over our best young player? Why the **** wouldn't we get our hopes up over him?

Again I'm not putting down the cats kids. I reckon Judson Clarke will be a beauty for us long term. We shall see.

 

[Xtreme]

The Hawks added in Vickery as part of that 2016 trade

A very astute selection
He made our VFL team much better!

 

[Thomas Erdody]

It still feels like a group at the end of something rather than the start...

As it should when you consider those match-winners the Melbourne supporter named being at the end.

 

[Footy Smarts]

-Ollie Henry and Noah Cumberland are also nearly identical statistically @ AFL level. Noah is a year older but lost a year to an ACL. Very similar statistically @ VFL too.

****ing lol!

Which VFL stats are you looking at for Henry? He hasn't played a VFL game since moving to Geelong. He's been too busy playing AFL and is currently sitting 15th in the league's goal kicking.

And you think he's equivalent to Cumberland who can't cement a spot in Richmond's forward line without Lynch?

Hahahahahahahahahahaha.

 

[Mr Meow]

Main issue with the Hopper deal is was he the type that was needed? You hit Tarranto who is a mile better. Did you need another one?

No, they needed to get their Bartel type player from pick 5-8 this draft to join Taranto for the next 7 years. Prestia, Martin, Short and Bolton were a good enough support squad while that young gun developed. The Hopper acquisition was redundant.

 

[tiger_tough]

******* lol!

Which VFL stats are you looking at for Henry? He hasn't played a VFL game since moving to Geelong. He's been too busy playing AFL and is currently sitting 15th in the league's goal kicking.

And you think he's equivalent to Cumberland who can't cement a spot in Richmond's forward line without Lynch?

Hahahahahahahahahahaha.

These ones. Pretty ****ing similar wouldn't you say? so just to be clear you think he's not good yet they both average 1.5 goals per game at afl level? Henry one extra mark but less tackles amd goal assists. One plays for a far better side also.

Cumberland has never got a fair go under Dimma or Mini for some strange reason. I think that will change next year. He's also not a tall forward so lynch has nothing to do with it.

Also, don't be a ****ing dick