Richmond - time for a rebuild?

[Foucault1989]

Ummm.... Richmond have been here before. Gold coast came to the AFL in 2011 and had most of the 1st round in 2010.

Richmond drafted lots of kids in the 2007-2009 drafts.

Tassie comes into the AFL in 2028. So they will get the majority of the 1st round picks in 2027.

Richmond went nuts in this 2024 trade period and got lots of 1st and 2nd rounders.

I expect the same again in 2025.

You've replied to a post I made on April 13th twice in the past week where this off season highlighted the importance of a fast aggressive rebuild prior to Tassie coming in. Obviously on April 13th 2024 I was not able to predict the outcomes of the 2024 off season in terms of how many players were traded out, but there you go...

 

[Lsta062]

Richmond supporters being "quietly optimistic" about 2025 is interesting, I hope that optimism is for another #1 pick

So what? Every spoon side probably had supporters thinking they’ll jump up. We’re no different to any other club where some people choose to be optimistic.

I personally think we’ll get another spoon, but what’s the harm in being optimistic instead?

 

[Taper]

Ummm.... Richmond have been here before. Gold coast came to the AFL in 2011 and had most of the 1st round in 2010.

Richmond drafted lots of kids in the 2007-2009 drafts.

Tassie comes into the AFL in 2028. So they will get the majority of the 1st round picks in 2027.

Richmond went nuts in this 2024 trade period and got lots of 1st and 2nd rounders.

I expect the same again in 2025.

Do you think Yze is the right coach to lead Richmond to their next premiership?

 

[Freomaniac]

Do you think Yze is the right coach to lead Richmond to their next premiership?

You want my brutally honest opinion?

I think yze will hang around for 2 or 3 or 4 seasons. He will be part of the rebuilding phase. So unlikely they will win a flag under him.

Unless Yze is allowed to coach in 2025, 2026 where tigers finish bottom 4 then in 2027 they have improved to get 10 or 11 wins

 

[Grrr]

Do you think Yze is the right coach to lead Richmond to their next premiership?

How would anyone know given the circumstances of last year. I think this year will be a better indication of what he is like as a coach. The players seem to like him.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Well take the injury out, because we have acknowledged that injury hits and we are in big trouble.
Lynch, Prestia, Vlastuin, Taranto, Short, Balta, Nankervis, Broad and Hopper are all proven players. 7 of them have multiple premierships.

Those were the 9 I was thinking of.

Ross, Mansell, Ralphsmith were good players last year, Ross stuffed by injury but he has been a good player for a while.

The fact you're naming these 3 as 10-12 on your entire list says it all.

I quite like Mansell but he's currently an ok small forward who can play a role. He'd need to improve a lot to be a top 12 player in a competitive team.

Ross and Ralphsmith would be lucky to get a game at many clubs and are exactly the types I think Richmond would be hoping to replace with more talented youngsters.

 

[Grrr]

You want my brutally honest opinion?

I think yze will hang around for 2 or 3 or 4 seasons. He will be part of the rebuilding phase. So unlikely they will win a flag under him.

Unless Yze is allowed to coach in 2025, 2026 where tigers finish bottom 4 then in 2027 they have improved to get 10 or 11 wins

I think he has an opportunity to make a statement about playing style and personnel this season. Last year he took on a successful side and had to honour those players that gave Richmond the success they had, some of them did not deserve it or were on the way out, and no doubt he knew it. He could not come in and make sweeping changes because he would have risked losing the players.

Big change of personnel, the only way is up, big injection of youth is always a boost for the older players. Seem how he goes during the year.

 

[Grrr]

Those were the 9 I was thinking of.



The fact you're naming these 3 as 10-12 on your entire list says it all.

I quite like Mansell but he's currently an ok small forward who can play a role. He'd need to improve a lot to be a to 12 player in a competitive team.

Ross and Ralphsmith would be lucky to get a game at many clubs and are exactly the types I think Richmond would be hoping to replace with more talented youngsters.

Most Richmond posters are pretty buoyant about Ross and Ralphsmith so no they are not the ones in question. Ross lost the year to injury so hard judge him but he has improved every year and is finally back in the middle of the ground where he started so well.

Ralphsmith would pretty unanimously be our most improved last season, or thereabouts. He was everyones whipping boy before that but changed a lot of minds last season. He is in everyone posters 22 on our board.

But yes, that is only another 3 that I named because the others are young and have done well from limited opportunity but you can't know what will happen for another year. Could be another Cumberland eh.

 

[Freomaniac]

How would anyone know given the circumstances of last year. I think this year will be a better indication of what he is like as a coach. The players seem to like him.

Well you know the club more than Me.

Again , give Yze a full 3 seasons to judge him

 

[GC2015]

Richmond - time for a rebuild?

The answer is obviously yes and the Tigers have clearly committed to that now. Richmond will likely be the ones having the last laugh in a few years from now when Tasmania enter the league and getting your hands on top end talent will be very difficult for multiple years. Mid-ladder teams that are hesitant to commit to a rebuild like Essendon are going to regret it when Richmond jump back up the ladder with a young & talented list in a few years from now and the Bombers are still stuck in the same rut they've been in for the last decade or so.

Look at what Hawthorn did when they committed to the rebuild for a few years after their most recent successful period and now they have one of the most exciting young lists in the league that is definitely capable of winning flags in the future. The same can be said about virtually every premier in recent times like Brisbane, Collingwood, Melbourne (Geelong is the one exception). That's what you need to do to have a real shot at winning flags in this league and Richmond understand that it's their turn to spend a few years towards the bottom of the ladder in order to get back to where they want to be.

Short term pain, long term gain.

 

[Wojcinski]

So what? Every spoon side probably had supporters thinking they’ll jump up. We’re no different to any other club where some people choose to be optimistic.

I personally think we’ll get another spoon, but what’s the harm in being optimistic instead?

Richmond set the all-time league record for losses in a season with 21 in 2024, they lost a number of their best 22 in the off-season and have replaced them with draftees. The plan may work out well, but 2025 isn't a time for optimism for the teams on-field results

 

[Lars27]

Richmond - time for a rebuild?

The answer is obviously yes and the Tigers have clearly committed to that now. Richmond will likely be the ones having the last laugh in a few years from now when Tasmania enter the league and getting your hands on top end talent will be very difficult for multiple years. Mid-ladder teams that are hesitant to commit to a rebuild like Essendon are going to regret it when Richmond jump back up the ladder with a young & talented list in a few years from now and the Bombers are still stuck in the same rut they've been in for the last decade or so.

Look at what Hawthorn did when they committed to the rebuild for a few years after their most recent successful period and now they have one of the most exciting young lists in the league that is definitely capable of winning flags in the future. The same can be said about virtually every premier in recent times like Brisbane, Collingwood, Melbourne (Geelong is the one exception). That's what you need to do to have a real shot at winning flags in this league and Richmond understand that it's their turn to spend a few years towards the bottom of the ladder in order to get back to where they want to be.

Short term pain, long term gain.

Essendon have gone to the draft for quite awhile now. In the past five drafts they have taken seven top 13 picks, and five second rounders. We also traded Stringer out, and traded for extra first and 2nd round picks in 2025. Doesn't sound like a team trying to maximize for short term success to me. Sure we could have traded a couple of senior players that could of got us some currency, but there were not many obvious choices. No way we trade our captain Merrett, or one of our only good forwards in Langford. So that doesn't really leave many senior players worth much currency. Parish is the only obvious one, but he has been injured a lot in recent seasons.

 

[randyzany]

You have to be concerned that the lack of a veteran presence or at least seasoned (5 seasons of more) players could negatively impact how their young draftees will develop. I think that a lack of guidance played a major role in why the Gold Coast struggle to this day; the lack of good club culture that is established and maintained but the older playing group could completely derail the playing group for anywhere between 5 to 10 years.

Will be interesting to see how things pan out for the Tiggers in the next couple of years.

 

[GC2015]

Essendon have gone to the draft for quite awhile now. In the past five drafts they have taken seven top 13 picks, and five second rounders. We also traded Stringer out, and traded for extra first and 2nd round picks in 2025. Doesn't sound like a team trying to maximize for short term success to me. Sure we could have traded a couple of senior players that could of got us some currency, but there were not many obvious choices. No way we trade our captain Merrett, or one of our only good forwards in Langford. So that doesn't really leave many senior players worth much currency. Parish is the only obvious one, but he has been injured a lot in recent seasons.

Didn't necessarily suggest the Bombers were prioritising short term success. I think Essendon's biggest problem is their unwillingness to bottom out and that's costing them the ability to bring in genuine future stars of the competition through the draft. Worsfold said as much in his final press conference as coach when he let the media know that the old Essendonians running the club didn't have the patience required to build a premiership list. Seems to me that a lot of them are still in the old mentality that they can just go and steal star players from other clubs instead of doing the hard yards themselves e.g. their pursuit of Ben King a few years back. Unless you get incredibly lucky through trading/free agency (see Dangerfield to Geelong) then you're just not going to get the talent you need to jump up into flag contention without having recently spent some time in the bottom 4.

Brisbane were bottom 4 in 2018. Melbourne were bottom 4 in 2019. Collingwood were bottom 4 in 2021. Geelong is the one recent premiership team that was able to buck that trend and it was only because they got very lucky with Dangerfield and all the flow on effects that came with recruiting him. From what I can tell, Essendon aren't really in the running for any big free agents/trade targets and I don't think they have any highly talented F/S picks coming through any time soon either. So that leaves one option in my mind - they need to commit properly to a list rebuild through the draft and that means bottoming out for a few years like Richmond are right now.

 

[tiger_tough]

Richmond set the all-time league record for losses in a season with 21 in 2024, they lost a number of their best 22 in the off-season and have replaced them with draftees. The plan may work out well, but 2025 isn't a time for optimism for the teams on-field results

Actually GWS also lost 21 matches in 2013 pal

Its also a nothing stat.There have been quite a few winless seasons in AFL history and 1 and 2 win seasons in the last couple of decades.

 

[Lars27]

Didn't necessarily suggest the Bombers were prioritising short term success. I think Essendon's biggest problem is their unwillingness to bottom out and that's costing them the ability to bring in genuine future stars of the competition through the draft. Worsfold said as much in his final press conference as coach when he let the media know that the old Essendonians running the club didn't have the patience required to build a premiership list. Seems to me that a lot of them are still in the old mentality that they can just go and steal star players from other clubs instead of doing the hard yards themselves e.g. their pursuit of Ben King a few years back. Unless you get incredibly lucky through trading/free agency (see Dangerfield to Geelong) then you're just not going to get the talent you need to jump up into flag contention without having recently spent some time in the bottom 4.

Brisbane were bottom 4 in 2018. Melbourne were bottom 4 in 2019. Collingwood were bottom 4 in 2021. Geelong is the one recent premiership team that was able to buck that trend and it was only because they got very lucky with Dangerfield and all the flow on effects that came with recruiting him. From what I can tell, Essendon aren't really in the running for any big free agents/trade targets and I don't think they have any highly talented F/S picks coming through any time soon either. So that leaves one option in my mind - they need to commit properly to a list rebuild through the draft and that means bottoming out for a few years like Richmond are right now.

You mentioned hawthorn too, but if anything they are a good example that you don't always need to bottom out. They didn't spend a single first round pick on the entire top 10 of their b&f last year. I think Day makes it easily when fit - pick 13. I think they only have one top 5 pick and that's Watson, who looks good. DBG was pick 6 - delisted. Ward a similar pick and not a clear best 22 player.
I get your point regarding Essendon not having enough top end talent and I agree. But I think our rebuild needs to be more like Hawthorn's than Richmond's. We have enough talent that we don't need to completely bottom out, imo.

 

[Freomaniac]

Actually GWS also lost 21 matches in 2013 pal

Its also a nothing stat.There have been quite a few winless seasons in AFL history and 1 and 2 win seasons in the last couple of decades.

This is also true. North Melbourne posted a 1 win and 21 loss record in 1972. Made a grand final in 1974 and flag in 1975.

Ron Barrassi coached the demons from. 1981 to 1985. Won like 35 games in that 5 year period.

They had a 1 win season in that period. Eventually made that prelim final In 1987 and grand final in 1988

 

[GC2015]

You mentioned hawthorn too, but if anything they are a good example that you don't always need to bottom out. They didn't spend a single first round pick on the entire top 10 of their b&f last year. I think Day makes it easily when fit - pick 13. I think they only have one top 5 pick and that's Watson, who looks good. DBG was pick 6 - delisted. Ward a similar pick and not a clear best 22 player.
I get your point regarding Essendon not having enough top end talent and I agree. But I think our rebuild needs to be more like Hawthorn's than Richmond's. We have enough talent that we don't need to completely bottom out, imo.

Hawthorn have done a great job of trading in B grade players in their prime like Impey, Amon, Ginnivan, Chol etc and combining them with the younger high end draft picks has allowed them to get into the bottom half of the top 8. The next step is for some of those young guys to become A graders and that's when Hawthorn will be legitimately challenging for flags again. Give it some time and the top 10 of Hawthorn's BnF count will definitely contain top 10 picks like Watson and Mackenzie. They're still young at the moment and are yet to take the mantle.

We don't really know what Richmond's rebuild is going to look like from here. They may do exactly the same thing as Hawthorn and in a year or two after they've gathered a good crop of high enddraftees and then start trading in established B graders to lead the young guys until they're ready to take the mantle and become the A graders of the club. My club just did the same thing by bringing in a highly experienced/successful B grader in Rioli to help lead the young guys for a few years until they're ready. It's a proven model that usually works and one that Essendon should definitely consider if they want to contend for a flag in the next decade.

 

[Grrr]

Richmond set the all-time league record for losses in a season with 21 in 2024, they lost a number of their best 22 in the off-season and have replaced them with draftees. The plan may work out well, but 2025 isn't a time for optimism for the teams on-field results

How was this a plan. They left us, not the other way round. We delisted on or two players that is all, the rest wanted out for one reason or another. Richmond did not instigate the 'plan' but made the best of it.

 

[Grrr]

Hawthorn have done a great job of trading in B grade players in their prime like Impey, Amon, Ginnivan, Chol etc and combining them with the younger high end draft picks has allowed them to get into the bottom half of the top 8. The next step is for some of those young guys to become A graders and that's when Hawthorn will be legitimately challenging for flags again. Give it some time and the top 10 of Hawthorn's BnF count will definitely contain top 10 picks like Watson and Mackenzie. They're still young at the moment and are yet to take the mantle.

We don't really know what Richmond's rebuild is going to look like from here. They may do exactly the same thing as Hawthorn and in a year or two after they've gathered a good crop of high enddraftees and then start trading in established B graders to lead the young guys until they're ready to take the mantle and become the A graders of the club. My club just did the same thing by bringing in a highly experienced/successful B grader in Rioli to help lead the young guys for a few years until they're ready. It's a proven model that usually works and one that Essendon should definitely consider if they want to contend for a flag in the next decade.

Rioli a B grader, you have no idea what you have just picked up. He is a gun and easily one of the best half backs in the league. You'll be eating your words this season I would think.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Hawthorn have done a great job of trading in B grade players in their prime like Impey, Amon, Ginnivan, Chol etc and combining them with the younger high end draft picks has allowed them to get into the bottom half of the top 8. The next step is for some of those young guys to become A graders and that's when Hawthorn will be legitimately challenging for flags again. Give it some time and the top 10 of Hawthorn's BnF count will definitely contain top 10 picks like Watson and Mackenzie. They're still young at the moment and are yet to take the mantle.

We don't really know what Richmond's rebuild is going to look like from here. They may do exactly the same thing as Hawthorn and in a year or two after they've gathered a good crop of high enddraftees and then start trading in established B graders to lead the young guys until they're ready to take the mantle and become the A graders of the club. My club just did the same thing by bringing in a highly experienced/successful B grader in Rioli to help lead the young guys for a few years until they're ready. It's a proven model that usually works and one that Essendon should definitely consider if they want to contend for a flag in the next decade.

You're an excellent poster, and clearly very savvy even about teams other than your own.

But you're in for a very pleasant surprise as a Suns fan if you think Dan Rioli is only a B-grader. He's a triple-premiership and B&F winning indigenous leader of men who is currently at the top of his game.

Dimma knows this better than anyone.

 

[Dr Tigris]

Well take the injury out, because we have acknowledged that injury hits and we are in big trouble.
Lynch, Prestia, Vlastuin, Taranto, Short, Balta, Nankervis, Broad and Hopper are all proven players. 7 of them have multiple premierships.

Ross, Mansell, Ralphsmith were good players last year, Ross stuffed by injury but he has been a good player for a while.


The others are fringe of course because they are just starting. Campbell looks ready to really make and impression. Brown has plenty of talent. Lefau was good before injury. Plenty of others look good, some of them will come on like all clubs.

We have 26 players in that category or just beginning. That is a lot.

What Grrr said.

The team can compete with probably another 10-12 teams, if fit and in form. Being fit has been unliekly for years now. In form is .. not an always thing.

By being able to compete I would say that doesn't mean win. It means being capable of winning. So if things go well the Tigers will be an annoying team to play for most clubs.

What I would expect is that the team will play some good games and play a fair number of poor games. A few injuries, eespecially to Lynch and thigns are likely to get hairy. There is a lot more potential downside than upside for the Tigers this season.

But if the club aims more at development than wins, which I expect, then a few games are likley to be lost by playing younger players and doing some experimentation. However, I hope for a mroe competitive team than 2024.

 

[Lars27]

Hawthorn have done a great job of trading in B grade players in their prime like Impey, Amon, Ginnivan, Chol etc and combining them with the younger high end draft picks has allowed them to get into the bottom half of the top 8. The next step is for some of those young guys to become A graders and that's when Hawthorn will be legitimately challenging for flags again. Give it some time and the top 10 of Hawthorn's BnF count will definitely contain top 10 picks like Watson and Mackenzie. They're still young at the moment and are yet to take the mantle.

We don't really know what Richmond's rebuild is going to look like from here. They may do exactly the same thing as Hawthorn and in a year or two after they've gathered a good crop of high enddraftees and then start trading in established B graders to lead the young guys until they're ready to take the mantle and become the A graders of the club. My club just did the same thing by bringing in a highly experienced/successful B grader in Rioli to help lead the young guys for a few years until they're ready. It's a proven model that usually works and one that Essendon should definitely consider if they want to contend for a flag in the next decade.

But it is not their 'high end' picks that have allowed them to get into the eight. It is mostly a core of players that Hawthorn have got outside of the first round. Their entire B&F top 15 are players they got outside of the first round beside Weddle, who was pick 18. Watson is their only 'high end'/top 5 draft pick. Mackenzie the only other top 10 pick in the best 22. I think Hawthorn is a perfect example that you don't need to 'bottom out' to build a very strong side.
If some of the young players at Essendon can develop such as Durham, Caddy, Kako, Reid, Tsatas, Roberts etc. and we nail our two firsts this year, we are getting closer to the required talent.

 

[Lsta062]

Richmond set the all-time league record for losses in a season with 21 in 2024, they lost a number of their best 22 in the off-season and have replaced them with draftees. The plan may work out well, but 2025 isn't a time for optimism for the teams on-field results

For the club leaders maybe. They could damage the club with unfound optimism.

But supporters are supporters. As long as they know that finishing last again is nothing out of the ordinary considering our list, then I don’t mind the optimism. I know from experience that expecting a bad season doesn’t make the season any less disappointing anyway. The optimistic bunch aren’t missing out on much anyway.

 

[Freomaniac]

Rioli a B grader, you have no idea what you have just picked up. He is a gun and easily one of the best half backs in the league. You'll be eating your words this season I would think.

True. Same with the dockers trading in Shai Bolton.

I don't mind him. I have no Doubt what he brings to the dockers team. It's what we traded picks wise is what concerned me