Autopsy Roast & toast vs St Kilda, changes for Brisbane, Thursday June 29

Best vs Saints


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boltons good but there's only one of him
In: Pickett, Hopper
Out: Ralphsmith, Ryan, Clarke, MRJ

fb- Grimes-Young-Vlastuin
hb- Rioli-Balta-Short
c- Ross-Taranto-Kmac
hf- Dusty-Riewoldt-Bolton
ff- Pickett-Miller-Baker
r- Nank-Bolton-Hopper

I/C- Broad-Graham-Cotchin-Prestia
Sub- MRJ
 

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Couple had shots where previously they would have looked around for a better option. Dusty's poster from 50 for example. Reckon this is something that Mini has changed.
Thank god for that. So many potential shots on goal turned into either turn overs or stoppages that get rebounded out.

Possibly also why Shorty is taking these long bombs now suddenly? Its a 'low' % chance from 55 (not lately for Short tho) but it still is a scoring opportunity. We don't need every shot to be 30m out directly in front.

At a guess from the outside with literally no knowledge of how either coaches work, possibly the team was a little over coached? You see teams get indecisive when that happens which we looked incredibly so. Seems overall we're playing on instinct a bit more?
 
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Kane Cornes dislikes this.
He'll just ignore all those stats and just point to the 59% Disposal Efficiency (The same as Dusty's btw who also played in the middle this week).

Bloke is an attention-seeking flog who would argue Taranto is a crap player even after he won our Club B&F, the Brownlow and a flag, if it got him more air time. :rolleyesv1:
 
Context for mine, Both the saints goal
Celebrations happened when the game was still very early and king in particular tried to rough up Balta like a genuine flog
Our boys never pull that type of s**t
Do they celebrate? Yes but with team mates
Vlaustins was still very early? Was like mid 3rd quarter.

And I gotta disagree with that, we absolutely have done that type of shit. Lynch for sure has haha.
 
Just watching the replay this morning (currently late in the 3rd quarter) and a couple of things to note:

Grimes & Macca who were both under the pump a fair bit this year, both had cracking games. Hard and tough/desparate in the contest particularly in the 2nd/3rd qtr.

Jack Ross' side step is becoming elite. He belongs at the level now.

Loved all the obvious ones: Taranto, Cotch & Dusty (both in beast mode), Vlas, Balta, Bolton, Bakes. You could really name all 22...

Geez we got absolutely stiff by the umps, I mean whats new, but each week is another level lower. Prestia's out of bounds being called deliberate when Jack was on the boundary line as it went out is just one of the many absurd calls against us.
 
Just watching the replay this morning (currently late in the 3rd quarter) and a couple of things to note:

Grimes & Macca who were both under the pump a fair bit this year, both had cracking games. Hard and tough/desparate in the contest particularly in the 2nd/3rd qtr.

Jack Ross' side step is becoming elite. He belongs at the level now.

Loved all the obvious ones: Taranto, Cotch & Dusty (both in beast mode), Vlas, Balta, Bolton, Bakes. You could really name all 22...

Geez we got absolutely stiff by the umps, I mean whats new, but each week is another level lower. Prestia's out of bounds being called deliberate when Jack was on the boundary line as it went out is just one of the many absurd calls against us.
paying attempted torps in the wet as OTF was just blatant cheating.
 

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Went to the game with my son. First game for ages. Had great seats near the interchange - awesome viewing. Sat in the rain for the second half but didn't care one-bit. With the play happening right in front of us you could see the effort in the boys eyes. Their demeanor and calculated aggression could only be described as fiercely determined.
The Maurice free against was ridiculous, he couldn't have tried harder to avoid forceful contact. Reckon the supporters lost their s**t after that and questioned everything. Some more parochial than others, I may have contributed there.

Was an absolutely awesome vibe in the 4th quarter and I'm giving a shout out to Miller who was fantastic. Very composed and he really looked like a seasoned player. I was happy for him and the rest of the boys. They all dug in so deep it was just amazing to watch.

Farkin Awesome win fot the Chimp!!!!
I'm looking forward to " Confident Miller" the big guy who aggressively attacks in air contests and punches clear or uses two hands to mark. An observation is that his foot skills markedly improve when he more positive / confident in his aerial work. Huge upside for the team.
 
No Soldo please Bojangles17 as he’s too slow for what we need. Unfortunately Our power CHF in Benjamin Miller will need to do another team sacrificing stint.
Its obvious to me, with Marlion back, Miller just plays Ryans role.
 
I knew the free kick count has been shit, but looking at which players get them it looks even worse.

Frees for.
Backline: Grimes got 2, Broad 2, Young 1, Short 1, Balta 1, Rioli 1.
Midfield: Martin 1, Cotchin 1, Bolton 1. 3 total to our mids.
Forward: Rewioldt 1.

Taranto, Cotchin, Prestia, Martin and Bolton had a combined 66 contested possessions, 31 clearances and 26 tackles and landed a massive 3 frees between them. How do the oppositions teams suddenly became so careful and perfect against us? We used to always be on the bottom of the free kick count and everyone its because we don't play first the ball which leads to frees. Well now what?

Thats 66 times they are in contested possessions when they won the ball + all the times where you are in and under but don't get a possession. In all those times they basically were never taken high? Pushed in the back? Held without it? And same for tackles. 26 tackles and basically no Saints players dropped it at any point?

Last week was the same. Those 5 got 2 frees total for their combined 65 contested, 30 clearances and 16 tackles
 
I knew the free kick count has been s**t, but looking at which players get them it looks even worse.

Frees for.
Backline: Grimes got 2, Broad 2, Young 1, Short 1, Balta 1, Rioli 1.
Midfield: Martin 1, Cotchin 1, Bolton 1. 3 total to our mids.
Forward: Rewioldt 1.

Taranto, Cotchin, Prestia, Martin and Bolton had a combined 66 contested possessions, 31 clearances and 26 tackles and landed a massive 3 frees between them. How do the oppositions teams suddenly became so careful and perfect against us? We used to always be on the bottom of the free kick count and everyone its because we don't play first the ball which leads to frees. Well now what?

Thats 66 times they are in contested possessions when they won the ball + all the times where you are in and under but don't get a possession. In all those times they basically were never taken high? Pushed in the back? Held without it? And same for tackles. 26 tackles and basically no Saints players dropped it at any point?

Last week was the same. Those 5 got 2 frees total for their combined 65 contested, 30 clearances and 16 tackles

Great analysis
 
Thank god for that. So many potential shots on goal turned into either turn overs or stoppages that get rebounded out.

Possibly also why Shorty is taking these long bombs now suddenly? Its a 'low' % chance from 55 (not lately for Short tho) but it still is a scoring opportunity. We don't need every shot to be 30m out directly in front.

At a guess from the outside with literally no knowledge of how either coaches work, possibly the team was a little over coached? You see teams get indecisive when that happens which we looked incredibly so. Seems overall we're playing on instinct a bit more?
Something has changed slightly as they look more free in the mind but one thing that hasn't changed yet under mini is the blowing of leads, 3rd straight week now and even though we have won all of them it's so damn frustrating, i want us to demolish teams.

vs GWS: lead by 29 pts 3m in 2nd qtr, concede the next 4 goals to lead by 2 pts at 22m in 2nd qtr.
vs Freo: lead by 36 pts 21m in 3rd qtr, concede the next 6 out of 7 goals to lead by 7 pts at 4m in 4th qtr.
vs StK: lead by 25 pts 18m in 3rd qtr, concede the next 3 goals to lead by 6 pts at 29m in 3rd qtr. ( also a 4 goal head start to saints )

But it's been a theme all year in almost all games where we either get a good lead then shut up shop allowing the oppo back into the game or we give up a 1st qtr head start to the opposition and need to work back into it. As Tiges1229 puts it, Jekyll and Hyde within a game.
 
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I knew the free kick count has been s**t, but looking at which players get them it looks even worse.

Frees for.
Backline: Grimes got 2, Broad 2, Young 1, Short 1, Balta 1, Rioli 1.
Midfield: Martin 1, Cotchin 1, Bolton 1. 3 total to our mids.
Forward: Rewioldt 1.

Taranto, Cotchin, Prestia, Martin and Bolton had a combined 66 contested possessions, 31 clearances and 26 tackles and landed a massive 3 frees between them. How do the oppositions teams suddenly became so careful and perfect against us? We used to always be on the bottom of the free kick count and everyone its because we don't play first the ball which leads to frees. Well now what?

Thats 66 times they are in contested possessions when they won the ball + all the times where you are in and under but don't get a possession. In all those times they basically were never taken high? Pushed in the back? Held without it? And same for tackles. 26 tackles and basically no Saints players dropped it at any point?

Last week was the same. Those 5 got 2 frees total for their combined 65 contested, 30 clearances and 16 tackles
Alright this is actually something ****y when looking at total frees across the league. I don't think theres even actually been a conspiracy with the umpires trying to make a team lose, but looking at these stats its hard to think they don't umpire teams differently.

Taranto is 1st in the league for disposals, 3rd for contested disposals. 4th in the league for tackles, sitting 316th in the league for frees for.
He has 190 total contested touches and 98 tackles and has got 9 FREES. 9! in 14 games.

Adam Cerra has 34 frees for the season. Taranto, Prestia, Cotchin and Martin have a COMBINED 30 frees.

Not that the same contested possessions should lead to the same frees, but players that are wining the ball in close generally have a higher chance of getting infringed on. This is the top 20 contested ball winners with Richmond main midfielders.

PlayerContested Disposals Frees forContested touches per free
Cerra149344.4
Mitchell157266
Rowell186276.9
Newcombe145216.9
Serong181267
Dunkley184267.1
Butters155217.4
Laird180237.8
Neale189247.9
Cripps206219.8
Oliver157169.8
Bont1981811
Worpel1611411.5
Crouch1641411.7
Bolton1411112.8
Martin115814.4
Libba1761214.7
Kelly1741115.8
Cotchin97616.2
Prestia117716.7
Green1881117.1
Petrecca1801018
Taranto190921.1
Anderson166627.7
 
Missy Higgins is 20% more likely to get a free kick since clearing off to Moorabbin.
Taranto the opposite with a much larger percentage

Last year he has 25 touches, 9.7 contested and 4.8 tackles and got 1.7 frees per game.
This year he has 32 touches, 13.6 contested and 7 tackles and gets 0.6 frees per game.

How does a players numbers go up by 30%-45% in areas that should lead to winning frees, yet his frees for drop by 64%? Clearly its not just the type of players he is, he used to win frees. Has he changed the way he plays in such a way that he no longer gets infringed on?
 
Taranto the opposite with a much larger percentage

Last year he has 25 touches, 9.7 contested and 4.8 tackles and got 1.7 frees per game.
This year he has 32 touches, 13.6 contested and 7 tackles and gets 0.6 frees per game.

How does a players numbers go up by 30%-45% in areas that should lead to winning frees, yet his frees for drop by 64%? Clearly its not just the type of players he is, he used to win frees. Has he changed the way he plays in such a way that he no longer gets infringed on?
Don’t know if you have gone into the umps board but one of our posters made a thread asking about why we get ****ed by the umps so regularly

A Hawks poster made an interesting point (not verified)
But said the training footage the umps use for free kicks featured mostly Richmond and Hawthorn infringements and Geelong and Dogs received in the footage

I have no idea how true this is but if it’s true it could absolutely play a role in subconsciously influencing decisions around these teams and interesting enough Hawks and Richmond are two of the sides mostly on the bad side of the free kick counts and we all know the opposite for the dogs

Cats are middle of the table

Would love to know if it’s true
 

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Autopsy Roast & toast vs St Kilda, changes for Brisbane, Thursday June 29

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