Prediction Round 16, 2024: Changes vs Hawthorn

[MerryHell]

But that wasn’t your point. Your point was that he’s on the decline. You even posted some “key stats” to show he’s on the decline and explained those stats “in case you can’t read”.

But they didn’t demonstrate that, so you’ve abandoned it and said your argument was actually something else.

If you’re going to be a condescending jerk, be prepared to cop the consequences.

Sigh.

My first post was he is a turnover merchant. My second post was game stats, 5 turnovers from 16 disposals.

My third post was a key stat grab that suggested he is trending downwards. I then posted "I lazily grabbed the default key stats tab, because I thought it suggested he is trending down, but yeah I accept they don't reflect the stats that matter for his role."

You and others made the point he is having his best year.

I and others have made the point he is average at best.

Your version of this is I started with "witherdens having a terrible year". Not quite, hey?

You then decide to win your imaginary argument by call me a "condescending jerk" and that I need to "cop the consequences".

Take a breather mate.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Sigh.

My first post was he is a turnover merchant. My second post was game stats, 5 turnovers from 16 disposals.

My third post was a key stat grab that suggested he is trending downwards. I then posted "I lazily grabbed the default key stats tab, because I thought it suggested he is trending down, but yeah I accept they don't reflect the stats that matter for his role."

You and others made the point he is having his best year.

I and others have made the point he is average at best.

Your version of this is I started with "witherdens having a terrible year". Not quite, hey?

You then decide to win your imaginary argument by call me a "condescending jerk" and that I need to "cop the consequences".

Take a breather mate.

You left “in case you can’t read” out of your summary, I noticed. Doesn’t paint you in the best light? Makes you look a little condescending? A bit of a jerk?

 

[MerryHell]

You left “in case you can’t read” out of your summary, I noticed. Doesn’t paint you in the best light? Makes you look a little condescending? A bit of a jerk?

You left out I then wrote:
"... but I did have a pot at [someone else] about not being able to read, so lets call it even and move on."

You also ignore your revisionist work on my posts.

And then resort to name calling, not once, but double down that I deserved it. How does that paint you?

Seriously, take a breather, we are done here, you win, if that helps you sleep at night.

 

[BeeTee]

If Kelly and Sheed are available along with Reid, that will be 42 players to choose from!!! Kelly and Reid come straight back in for Hutchinson and then its anyone guess. Unless there is a mystery injury or they rest a senior player, it could be anyone of 6 players come out.

 

[Smotie2]

Hes a nice 8/9th defender at a club, first in line depth. He is a passable small defender or distributor, but not really good enough at anything to be in a good teams best 22

But he's statistically our best kicker in defence and better than cole and Duggan dont you know

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

And then resort to name calling, not once, but double down that I deserved it. How does that paint you?

As someone that doesn’t like people being jerks then trying to claim some sort of moral high ground, I hope.

And as a pain in the arse, but that’s not new.

 

[Smotie2]

As someone that doesn’t like people being jerks then trying to claim some sort of moral high ground, I hope.

And as a pain in the arse, but that’s not new.

 

[RookiePick]

MC needs to pull the trigger on Hutchi(n?)son. Either he plays from the opening bounce or hits the WAFL. They are going to cook the guys match fitness.

In fact I think our MC can just get in the bin. They have now made a rod for their own back by putting Allen straight into the firsts. Darling, Waterman, Allen and resting ruck is way too tall and frankly neither Darling or Waterman deserve to be omitted. They aren't going to drop Allen back now so we are stuck with an over-tall line-up.

Possibly they drop Bwilliams and that will just be such a typical story for us. Turning silver linings into sows ears seems to be a MC specialty. That may well stick in Bailey's craw a bit. He hasn't been great but Flynn is bog average and Bailey has been a real battler for us the past year or two. You're hardly making way for Dean Cox

Dean Cox

Age

43

Ht

203cm

Wt

107kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.9

4star

K

8.9

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

5.3

5star

T

1.5

3star

G

0.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.0

1star

.

I think we are just going to see the same look for a bit unfortunately, until injury forces a change to the KPP line-ups.

Out: JJ, Hutchy
In: TK, Reid (Roth to sub)

I don't think JJ was awful but I think it's between him and Witherden and Simmo seems to prefer to watch us failing slowly than at express pace.

 

[Chris_6678]

If Kelly and Sheed are available along with Reid, that will be 42 players to choose from!!! Kelly and Reid come straight back in for Hutchinson and then its anyone guess. Unless there is a mystery injury or they rest a senior player, it could be anyone of 6 players come out.

**** it just play all 42.

have them rotate out from the changerooms.

 

[Rowdy P]

My personal view on Witherdon is that he is a limited player who gives 100% effort every game. Was criticised for getting a lot of ball but not great defending, but has tightened up significantly as a defender, with the subsequent drop off in touches. He seems to have cleaned up his disposal, mainly by making better decisions, and is a very competent kick (a lot lower and flatter than many of his teammates). Made a couple of horrible turnovers yesterday, but don't see why that should outweigh the previous eight or so weeks where he has been decent.

Certainly can see that he might not be there for the next tilt, but I can't see anyone bashing down the door to take his spot - maybe Duggo as the midfield balances out, but that's not a huge upgrade on disposal.

One of the things I think is that the half-backs need to be encouraged to pull the trigger sometimes on those risky kicks. We all know Witho isn't Jetta or Hurn (and god knows I gave Jetts a spray more than once when it didn't come off), but I'd rather see the guys try a risky kick back into the corridor rather than turn into Lyon-lite robots, especially now while wins aren't as critical. Biggest issue I see is the lack of work of our mids and half-forwards to present and make the ground wide. Same with Rotham's turnover yesterday. We gave him one option to go to, he knew it wasn't great (hence his hesitation), but had no-one else giving him a chopout. Imagine he doesn't take that kick, turns back inside, and bombs the ball to no-one in the middle. On the other hand, I reckon Witho would have hit Cole on the tit with a lower, faster pass than Rotham could have.

<TLDR> Witho's done enough to stay and get a new contract, we desperately need a new Jetta/Hurn </TLDR>

 

[1986]

Out: Rotham, Maric, Hutchinson.
In: Reid, Kelly, Sheed.

Team:
Darling. Allen. Cripps.
Sheed. Waterman. Ryan.
Ginbey. Yeo. Chesser.
Duggan. Gov. JJ.
Witherden. Barrass. Hough.

Flynn. Reid. Kelly.

Int: Petch. Brockman. BWilliams. Cole.

Sub: Hunt.

Rotham is having a shocker last few games he's played, constantly beaten.
Hutchinson full game in wafl.
Maric has been given his chances but not impacting, maybe back to the wafl to work on the wing position.
Hunt hasn't had his best year, before and after his injury.
JJ lucky to survive but give him another game or two until Hunt gets back up to speed.
Sheed high half forward where his lack of speed isn't exposed as much.
Ryan and Brockman rotating through the middle should be persisted with, even with Reid and Kelly back.

On SM-S906E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Hoskin300]

Great work internet detective.

My point, as I have said in multiple posts, which you ignore to earn your internet points... and I'll repeat again (sorry everyone)... he was bad yesterday, and since he is average at best, which everyone seems to agree with, why do we persist with him?

He has had a better year than Cole. Why do we persist with Cole?

Witherden has been fine this year we have far far bigger issues in our team.

 

[Hoskin300]

You left out I then wrote:
"... but I did have a pot at [someone else] about not being able to read, so lets call it even and move on."

You also ignore your revisionist work on my posts.

And then resort to name calling, not once, but double down that I deserved it. How does that paint you?

Seriously, take a breather, we are done here, you win, if that helps you sleep at night.

I think it’s just strange you have a crack at witherdens disposal when he has better disposal than Duggan, Cole and Hough statistically. Can’t you see that it doesn’t make much sense?

 

[EagleJack42]

I'm a little late to the great Witherden debate and to be honest I'm not sure where I stand with his position in the team, probably slightly towards the keep him in given the absence of a clearly better option. Having said this, I watched start to finish yesterday and some of his defensive pressure/tackle efforts were completely unacceptable. He is a master of the throw one arm out tackle effort which led to at least 1 goal perhaps 2.

I don't mind him as a distributor/accumulator but he gets burnt with his defensive efforts a little too often. However, one could say that if the ball carrier is pressured up the ground it would make life easier for the defenders.

 

[MerryHell]

He has had a better year than Cole. Why do we persist with Cole?

Witherden has been fine this year we have far far bigger issues in our team.

I think it’s just strange you have a crack at witherdens disposal when he has better disposal than Duggan, Cole and Hough statistically. Can’t you see that it doesn’t make much sense?

Agree we have bigger issues.

Disposal Efficiency need to be taken in context. From what I see, witho is taking safer disposal options this year, which would result in a higher DE.

When he attempts the aggressive kicks, they seem to, more often than not, result in turnovers, like yesterday.

I think he is worse than the other 3 you mentioned, but I don't have the data to back that up, just going on what I see.
EDIT: data for number of turnovers from aggressive kicks is what I mean we don't really have to compare stats wise.

 

[EagleJack42]

Speaking of defensive effort, there was a contest on the far wing where we had three on one and the Essendon player managed to fist the ball to his reinforcement's advantage and go end to end, nearly made me throw something at the TV. JJ's put a hand on his back defensive effort on Martin after he got outmarked and then took off on the same wing had a similar effect.

 

[stallon]

Witho tries, but hes just an average player. We really need somebody better to do that distributor role, we have Hough and Cole doing the defensive small work already.
If we got an Isaac Cumming

44

Isaac Cumming

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.2

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.3

4star

MG

158.0

2star

D

9.5

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.5

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

2.5

3star

MG

158.0

3star

D

10.6

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.6

4star

type as a FA then Witho would have to be the guy out for him.

 

[Hoskin300]

Agree we have bigger issues.

Disposal Efficiency need to be taken in context. From what I see, witho is taking safer disposal options this year, which would result in a higher DE.

When he attempts the aggressive kicks, they seem to, more often than not, result in turnovers, like yesterday.

I think he is worse than the other 3 you mentioned, but I don't have the data to back that up, just going on what I see.
EDIT: data for number of turnovers from aggressive kicks is what I mean we don't really have to compare stats wise.

I genuinely don’t know how you watch Duggan and think he kicks better than witho. His disposal is terrible and the stats significantly reflect that.

The other two play the exact same role as witherden and take the exact same kicks. All have similar stats. Witherden has the most score involvements as well (pretty sure) so suggests he uses it more aggressively.

I think the big criticism of witherden is he is slow as ****. That’s what’s always going to hold him back.

I think you just have recency bias off yesterdays game.

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

Speaking of defensive effort, there was a contest on the far wing where we had three on one and the Essendon player managed to fist the ball to his reinforcement's advantage and go end to end, nearly made me throw something at the TV. JJ's put a hand on his back defensive effort on Martin after he got outmarked and then took off on the same wing had a similar effect.

JJ's defensive efforts yesterday, especially when watching in person and seeing what the camera probably didn't track, were terrible.
He's full of energy when he's on the attack, but defensively he's on par with Sheed.

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

I genuinely don’t know how you watch Duggan and think he kicks better than witho. His disposal is terrible and the stats significantly reflect that.

The other two play the exact same role as witherden and take the exact same kicks. All have similar stats. Witherden has the most score involvements as well (pretty sure) so suggests he uses it more aggressively.

I think the big criticism of witherden is he is slow as ****. That’s what’s always going to hold him back.

I think you just have recency bias off yesterdays game.

Pre-2024 I'd have agreed. But this year Duggan has really cleaned up his disposal.

 

[flyinghi64]

Once again JJ seems to be a popular out but I just don't think he is.
Seems to be gaining confidence with each game he is getting in a row and I think that will continue given a go.
He is one player with have with leg speed and a bit of take the game on. He had a few good passages he was key in that got the ball forward and into the 50. Doesn't seem to be taking on as many of those pinpoint passes that look horrendous when it doesn't come off, unlike Witho who tries to pick a 5c piece amongst several opposition players. Witho just needs to be told mate you have a safe option to hit do it, don't go looking for the miracle bullet pass.
Both are still in our best 22-24 at the moment though IMO.

Reid is an auto in of course and that would be for Hutchy who needs a full game back in WAFL.

Kelly if fit and ready to replace Rotham/Hunt or Petch take your pick and reshuffle. Hunt needs to find some touch, of the ball. Petch needs a bullet up the bum and Rotham well mmmmm just ehh.

 

[Sammy J]

In: Kelly and Reid
Out: Hutchinson and Rotham

Maric to sub or play in defense.

 

[flyinghi64]

Trew with another good +30 Wafl game.
Should come in as Sub, get 5 mins in the last to get half a dozen touches and dropped back down to WAFL for under performing.

 

[Total_Juddshanks]

This really is a 'Simpson under the spotlight' game. Need to win this one.

Should have virtually a full list to pick from, Harley fresh, Allen better for the run, on a home deck, against a team coached by our 2018 midfield coach, which was on a similar rebuild trajectory to us two years ago and has been flying over the last month.

Should be a very good game, but there won't be any alibis if we cop a battering.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Hey guys, hope I’m welcome to post and come here peacefully as always

The side for Hawthorn is super easy to pick, I think one change happens with Gunston out for Mitch Lewis who finally returns, making it the best side Hawthorn have put out.

Hardwick - Frost - Scrimshaw
Sicily - Weddle - Amon
Jiath - Day - D’Ambrosio
Moore - Lewis - MacDonald
Ginnivan - Chol - Watson
Meek - Newcombe - Worpel
Dear - Mackenzie - Nash - Impey - Breust (sub)

Its probably too early with West Coast besides Reid to tip who comes in or out.

Some key match ups I’d presume:
Newcombe and Reid, two bulls and similar types.

Nash and Yeo, Nash has played as a defensive mid, crash and bash and a 2nd ruck around the ground, he will spend time on Yeo and is one of the most important parts of West Coasts game.

Frost on Allen, I presume this is the case, but as you know zone football is key so there’ll be a few rotating with Waterman and maybe Williams/Maric.

Having more of a go defensively.

Weddle on Waterman, he has apparently asked a fair amount to go onto the best players and get a challenge and Waterman is one of the form key forwards.

Scrimshaw on Williams/Maric

Hardwick on Ryan

Sicily will roam and likely finds an opponent when needed, might cop a tag.

Will Day might get tagged but otherwise will end up head to head with Kelly if he plays.

Barrass goes straight to Lewis if he plays.

McGovern on Chol I presume if Lewis doesn’t play Gunston will go to one of them but as I predict (Gunston out) it’ll be this.

Dear then gets a third tall like Rotham which will be massive for him.

Ginnivan, Moore, Watson will be a handful but my guess is Duggan to Moore, Hough to Watson and Witherden to Ginnivan.

Outside of this, it’ll chop and change. But in general it likely will nonetheless.