Prediction Round 16, 2024: Changes vs Hawthorn

[Godfather32]

And just on that last point for all the talk about our forward line being too tall we had the same number of scoring shots as essendon, we just couldn't kick for shit and meanwhile they nailed some absolute gems from the pocket. More accurate kicking and we easily could have gotten 12+ goals from Waterman/Allen/Darling/Cripps and coasted to a win and everyone would be talking about how lethal our forward line looked.

It's not about the ball coming in, it's about the ball leaving our forward line in the hands of the opposition players. So many talls makes it harder to defend on the way back, and we got cut up by Essendon on the weekend like this.

 

[illegaleagle]

It's not about the ball coming in, it's about the ball leaving our forward line in the hands of the opposition players. So many talls makes it harder to defend on the way back, and we got cut up by Essendon on the weekend like this.

They must have scored 12 or 13 goals coming out of there defensive half with little to no pressure from our players

 

[squashface]

Terrible news that Yeo's dad passed away last night - suspect he may be an out this weekend.

 

[Ghossein]

Reigning club champion Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

29

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

is set to return against Hawthorn on Sunday but midfield colleague Dom Sheed will miss at least another match.

 

[mad_eagle]

Terrible news that Yeo's dad passed away last night - suspect he may be an out this weekend.

Terrible news, from comments made within the media recently regarding the contract it sounds as if his dad was already pretty unwell. Explains the absence of Yeoy at training today as well, which is of course completely understandable…

Thoughts go out to his family in this difficult time

 

[Grahame]

It appears BWill was recruited as a forward but then had to learn to ruck to cover a hole. And as a makeshift he repeatedly busted his gut and was okay to fair.

Then we get Flynn and BW resumed the preseason as a forward.

Then Flynn goes down and he’s back to a ruckman again.

Then Waterman (finally) lifts beyond a generally mediocre career to be something extraordinary.

And, by the time Flynn’s okay, our co-captain is about ready to resume. Furthermore, JD has partly reversed his early season slide.

Unfortunately now, BW ain’t got a position anymore. (Or at least while JD is not complete crap and/or still in the MCs good books.)

So for all his efforts (thank you) he finds himself in no man’s land.

And all the while JWill and AReid are loitering in the background. (With Maric, Hutch and Culley???)

To me, it seems like through no fault of his own, and after doing everything asked of him, he’s now in the wrong place at the wrong time. So I truly hope he can find a successful career at another club. Go well.

 

[Spoon_Man]

It appears BWill was recruited as a forward but then had to learn to ruck to cover a hole. And as a makeshift he repeatedly busted his gut and was okay to fair.

Then we get Flynn and BW resumed the preseason as a forward.

Then Flynn goes down and he’s back to a ruckman again.

Then Waterman (finally) lifts beyond a generally mediocre career to be something extraordinary.

And, by the time Flynn’s okay, our co-captain is about ready to resume. Furthermore, JD has partly reversed his early season slide.

Unfortunately now, BW ain’t got a position anymore. (Or at least while JD is not complete crap and/or still in the MCs good books.)

So for all his efforts (thank you) he finds himself in no man’s land.

And all the while JWill and AReid are loitering in the background. (With Maric, Hutch and Culley???)

To me, it seems like through no fault of his own, and after doing everything asked of him, he’s now in the wrong place at the wrong time. So I truly hope he can find a successful career at another club. Go well.

Hear me out.. He has a great leap and surely his marking is a confidence thing. Could he possibly make the switch to a key defender? I really like him and it would be a shame for him to be dropped, as he's busted his gut for ages now. He just gets monstered too easily in the ruck, so could we utilise his athletic profile in the backline? You can't get 2 better mentors than Gov and Tommy.

I'm just spitballing here.. Others may watch him more closely and be better judges of things like his reading of the play.

 

[Feeling Groovy]

Hear me out.. He has a great leap and surely his marking is a confidence thing. Could he possibly make the switch to a key defender? I really like him and it would be a shame for him to be dropped, as he's busted his gut for ages now. He just gets monstered too easily in the ruck, so could we utilise his athletic profile in the backline? You can't get 2 better mentors than Gov and Tommy.

I'm just spitballing here.. Others may watch him more closely and be better judges of things like his reading of the play.

I thought about that a while ago but his body work is terrible. His best attributes are his leap and athleticism but body on body he gets pushed out of the contest too easily. Also takes an eternity to kick, so I am thinking no, he wouldn’t work as a defender.

 

[THE A5]

Honestly not sure what to make of Williams really tbh. 18 months ago I genuinely thought he was a spud but won me over last year with effort and fight. That said I think he’s at his ceiling. He just looks like a pure athlete to me and really a stop gap as a main ruckmen or as a fwd/ruck.

 

[stallon]

I hope Bailey gets at least a couple more weeks, and id like to see him without Darling in the side. I cant see us doing Darlings 300th down in Geelong so he will miss at least 1, imo give him a rest in the next 2-3 weeks to see BW Allen Waterman combo, then give him a couple weeks early end to the year. Bring in the 300th in the first half of next year, then he can be depth like Gaff.

This week I think id get Darling to do a tag role on Sicily. Hes good enough to not let Sicily just mark anything he wants, and hopefully can be damaging the other way.
Keep Maric/Hunt/Chesser on the wings.
Get Ginbey to start at HF and do a proper tag on Will Day around the ground.

Against Essendon Flynn did 56% CBAs with 67% TOG, BW did 44% with 60% TOG. Get Flynn up to 75%+ CBAs and give BW something else to do, hes not even playing as a forward yet. Hard to judge him as a ruck/fwd when hes only rucking

 

[Astro7]

It appears BWill was recruited as a forward but then had to learn to ruck to cover a hole. And as a makeshift he repeatedly busted his gut and was okay to fair.

Then we get Flynn and BW resumed the preseason as a forward.

Then Flynn goes down and he’s back to a ruckman again.

Then Waterman (finally) lifts beyond a generally mediocre career to be something extraordinary.

And, by the time Flynn’s okay, our co-captain is about ready to resume. Furthermore, JD has partly reversed his early season slide.

Unfortunately now, BW ain’t got a position anymore. (Or at least while JD is not complete crap and/or still in the MCs good books.)

So for all his efforts (thank you) he finds himself in no man’s land.

And all the while JWill and AReid are loitering in the background. (With Maric, Hutch and Culley???)

To me, it seems like through no fault of his own, and after doing everything asked of him, he’s now in the wrong place at the wrong time. So I truly hope he can find a successful career at another club. Go well.

Your powers of deduction are convincing...but how that rolls within the club is an entirely different ballgame.

 

[PremiershipNo4]

This is where my frustration grows. If we're playing our more experienced side I expect us to win. Not playing a few more of the kids and losing just seems like a wasted opportunity at development.

I am fully aware that "play the youth" is not an entirely viable option at all times however.

I feel the same.
Even though we lost last week I love the fact the we turned up to play tough, competitive footy for a whole game.
There are no excuses this week, the team will be strong, they aren’t playing the kids, the injuries are few, and it’s our home deck.
We should all be expecting a win.

 

[Bleedblueandgold]

Perhaps a pure ruckman like Flynn wasn't really required, but rather one that can play across the ground supporting Williams.
Except if the club didn't see Williams as a long term first ruck.

 

[RookiePick]

Hear me out.. He has a great leap and surely his marking is a confidence thing. Could he possibly make the switch to a key defender? I really like him and it would be a shame for him to be dropped, as he's busted his gut for ages now. He just gets monstered too easily in the ruck, so could we utilise his athletic profile in the backline? You can't get 2 better mentors than Gov and Tommy.

I'm just spitballing here.. Others may watch him more closely and be better judges of things like his reading of the play.

I listened to Oscar Allen talking to Schoey et al and he spoke about "hands" being the last thing to get right/consistency with as a key forward. It was in relation to Snake becoming dominant this year, but the principle applies. Bwill seems to get to plenty of balls/aerial contests but he hangs on to almost none of them.

Possibly he clunks them more reliably at training without the pressure and the coaching staff can see it working in due course when he finds his "hands"?

 

[Altum Volantes]

Perhaps a pure ruckman like Flynn wasn't really required, but rather one that can play across the ground supporting Williams.
Except if the club didn't see Williams as a long term first ruck.

A ruckman that can at the very least break even in the ruck contests is required - Bailey Williams is not able to go with even the lesser pure rucks in the league.

The club doesn’t see Bailey as a #1 ruck because he just can’t commit in the actual ruck work - harsh but true.

There are some ruck tap differential stats knocking around for the first half of the year - if I recall right, WCE were dead bottom, by some margin, averaging a ‘loss’ in the taps by around 18 a game. At the other end of the scale was GC, with Jarrod Witts, a quality ruck but no superstar - they held a +15 advantage in the taps across the league.

So when we rolled up against GC, we were already set to concede the ruck contest by over 30 hit outs. Now I know hit outs aren’t everything but a good ruckman who can win taps to advantage definitely goes a long way to set up your mids for success. The more you win, the more hit outs to advantage you will garner from a decent tap ruckman.

Needless to say we got crushed in the middle against GC - particularly in the ruck which was 63 to 18 for the day (just -45 there, ooft.).

 

[Doashuey]

Well, clearly you're amazing, but wasn't BW trained as a forward all preseason (naturally or not)? Not saying therefore he should be up front..

Also for those on Hunt, he isn't going anywhere. A subpar (?) season or not, his pace is always needed.

Thanks, very perceptive of you.
Yes he has been trained as a forward, as mentioned Simmo was a big fan of BWill as a forward, but it was pretty clear to many that it wasn't going to work but it was his best option as we recruited Flynn to take on the Ruck in a full time role.
I never have and will be surprised if I ever will see BW being a successful tall forward option.

 

[Grahame]

I never have and will be surprised if I ever will see BW being a successful tall forward option.

Especially at a club where he’s KPD #4 when only three are needed.

 

[Astro7]

Thanks, very perceptive of you.
Yes he has been trained as a forward, as mentioned Simmo was a big fan of BWill as a forward, but it was pretty clear to many that it wasn't going to work but it was his best option as we recruited Flynn to take on the Ruck in a full time role.
I never have and will be surprised if I ever will see BW being a successful tall forward option.

For sure, it's a puzzle to be sorted; but the coach has hinted at maybe a few more weeks of trial (and error) with BW+Flynn. Must say Flynn hasn't set the world on fire, but might need a couple more runs to get in the groove?

 

[Barrybran]

Have defo seen a monumental shift on this board regarding Bailey Williams position in the side.

Seems it's gone from 'he's a natural forward', to 'he's fine just give it time', to 'he can't play forward at all' in the past month.

Simpson is on crack, he's only delaying the inevitable here, which is Williams demoted to the WAFL and Flynn rucking on his own.. aka bad list management.



IN - Reid, Kelly, Hall
OUT - Hutchinson, Rotham, Jones


Another one to keep an eye on is Hunt, I feel his sub par season has flown under the radar a bit on here.

Possibly he overachieved a bit last year in his first season, he certainly hasn't hit those heights again. Numbers are down across the board. 7 touches in a whole game of footy last week. He hasn't had a return that bad since round 12 2022 for Melbourne (3 disposals).

Who said Williams was a natural forward??? Also, you leave Hunt alone. He's a beautiful man and thoroughly deserving of his place in the side. He is playing more wing rather than initiating play out of defense this season.

 

[Mulldogg]

BWilliams looking more like a trade possibility I reckon. I know he re-signed not that long ago but there is a squeeze coming and as a 23/24yo Victorian I reckon we could get a late second/early third rounder for him based on what he showed as a ruck last year.

Can’t see his forward abilities and reckon JWilliams looks a better player from that forward/ruck perspective.

 

[SloppyJoe]

OUT: Yeo, B Williams
IN: Reid, Kelly

If Yeo decides to play then Hutch out.

 

[Ghossein]

BWilliams is still learning to adjust to the new role after being a ruckman for the past 18 months

IIRC Simmo did hint that they would have patience with him finding his footing in that position, be it at AFL level or at WAFL

 

[Astro7]

Will Yeo be a late out?

 

[lmach]

Will Yeo be a late out?

You’d think he’d be named as an out if he was going to miss, so I guess we’ll find out Thursday.

 

[Dark Sharks]

BWilliams is still learning to adjust to the new role after being a ruckman for the past 18 months

IIRC Simmo did hint that they would have patience with him finding his footing in that position, be it at AFL level or at WAFL

You're not wrong, but there's patience, and then there's watching a player with absolutely zero forward craft run around down there not impacting the game. It's not just his hands, or lack of touch, it's his forward brain, positioning, his lack of contest, bringing the ball to ground. Been 3 weeks now.

What's worse is that I feel his ruck chopouts have dropped off. He's better when he's involved in the game and rucking on his own, fronting up to contest after contest. That's the best version of Bailey Williams, the one we've seen step up the last couple years.

I feel his chopout stuff has been a bit lame tbh. He's fresh, with an enviable leap, against a part timer more often than not (the other teams backup) and he's still not impacting enough.

Just belt the ball forwards if the mids aren't getting it done, jeez.