Prediction Round 2, 2023: Changes vs GWS

[Dylan82]

What pick was O'Neil again?

Taken at 28 in 2018.

The club split 23 into 27 and 32, which became 28 and 35 after bidding.


In what has proven with hindsight to be a shallow draft, the move to water down the pick in 2018 now looks a poor move.

At pick 23, Bobby Hill and J.Rowbottom were still available.


From pick 28 onwards it becomes tumbleweeds - it could be argued that only J.Jordan (33) and J.McInerney (44) are noteworthy.

 

[Bleedblueandgold]

Taken at 28 in 2018.

The club split 23 into 27 and 32, which became 28 and 35 after bidding.


In what has proven with hindsight to be a shallow draft, the move to water down the pick in 2018 now looks a poor move.

At pick 23, Bobby Hill and J.Rowbottom were still available.


From pick 28 onwards it becomes tumbleweeds - it could be argued that only J.Jordan (33) and J.McInerney (44) are noteworthy.

It seemed like we were only gonna pick one out of Hill & Cameron and we chose Cameron, who was also the better value option.
IIRC I think Cameron said he knew we were gonna match a bid for him once we moved down the draft and passed on Hill.
And now we have neither of them lol.

 

[Grahame]

I don't know what Grahame is suggesting we do? Probably because he deliberately avoids saying what he thinks we should do other than we sack all out mid aged players bar Allen and Ryan.

I’ll put the words in my own mouth thank you.

Have previously suggested - on several occasions - that say a third of the (12) 27 and overs are ‘managed’, dropped or give mentoring at the Beagles possibly on a rotating basis. (But not making it tankingly obvious.)

(And also any of the six regulars under 27 who may need a rest or a rocket.)

This creates four extra AFL spots and gives much needed expertise to the Beagles which may hasten development there.

 

[Keys]

Hawthorn as been doing this (letting senior players move on) for a long time. It’s not a new thing for them. Otherwise, I must have missed how the Blues and the Dees failed miserably doing what I described.

Balls. To. The. Wall. Nuthin ventured. Nuthin gained. If we keep doing the same thing, we’ll get the same result.

Over to you…


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Hawthorn have only had one (very) successful rebuild and that took nearly a decade (mid 90’s to mid 2000’s) to properly bear fruit. Admittedly once they got it right, it paid off big time

From 1997 to 2006 they made finals just twice (one and done appearances in 2000/01). Clarkson was the one who moved things along and built the dynasty that won the 2013-15 flags - the core of that three peat team also pinched the 2008 flag a few years earlier

Since 2015, they’ve made finals twice without winning any with their last appearance in 2018. In that time they’ve moved on a significant number of premiership players, some of whom made significant contributions to their new clubs

As it stands they are currently one of the favourites for the wooden spoon and 2-3 years away at least from being in contention if their current strategy succeeds

In terms of rebuilding, we are the only club with three distinct premiership teams in the AFL era - the 92/94 sides, 06 and 18

Collingwood (90 and 10), Essendon (93 and 00 sort of), Geelong (07-11 and 22), Hawthorn (88-91 and 08-15) and Sydney (05 and 12 sort of) have all had 2 distinct teams

Hawthorn are the only other club with 3 different premiership coaches

So when it comes to rebuilds we’ve been pretty good at them.

The problem we’ve had is that by spending relatively short periods at the bottom end of the ladder, we haven’t built quite the same depth of talent necessary for sustained runs at the top like Brisbane, Hawthorn, Geelong and Richmond. (There’s also an argument around our premiership sides being unable to find the motivation to go again)

The proven way to build a premiership side is through the draft like we’re currently trying to do. Pushing senior players out en masse during that process is a bit more hit and miss. We’ve generally erred on the side of retaining players for longer

There’s valid questions around Nisbett staying longer than he should have but it’s undeniable that there’s people at West Coast who know what it takes to be successful

 

[RedWeddingGuest]

Hawthorn have only had one (very) successful rebuild and that took nearly a decade (mid 90’s to mid 2000’s) to properly bear fruit. Admittedly once they got it right, it paid off big time

From 1997 to 2006 they made finals just twice (one and done appearances in 2000/01). Clarkson was the one who moved things along and built the dynasty that won the 2013-15 flags - the core of that three peat team also pinched the 2008 flag a few years earlier

Since 2015, they’ve made finals twice without winning any with their last appearance in 2018. In that time they’ve moved on a significant number of premiership players, some of whom made significant contributions to their new clubs

As it stands they are currently one of the favourites for the wooden spoon and 2-3 years away at least from being in contention if their current strategy succeeds

In terms of rebuilding, we are the only club with three distinct premiership teams in the AFL era - the 92/94 sides, 06 and 18

Collingwood (90 and 10), Essendon (93 and 00 sort of), Geelong (07-11 and 22), Hawthorn (88-91 and 08-15) and Sydney (05 and 12 sort of) have all had 2 distinct teams

Hawthorn are the only other club with 3 different premiership coaches

So when it comes to rebuilds we’ve been pretty good at them.

The problem we’ve had is that by spending relatively short periods at the bottom end of the ladder, we haven’t built quite the same depth of talent necessary for sustained runs at the top like Brisbane, Hawthorn, Geelong and Richmond. (There’s also an argument around our premiership sides being unable to find the motivation to go again)

The proven way to build a premiership side is through the draft like we’re currently trying to do. Pushing senior players out en masse during that process is a bit more hit and miss. We’ve generally erred on the side of retaining players for longer

There’s valid questions around Nisbett staying longer than he should have but it’s undeniable that there’s people at West Coast who know what it takes to be successful

Thanks for putting me straight. Got it: no change needed – just hold course and all will be tickety-boo. If the pattern holds, our next flag will be in 2030, give or take a year (assuming no iffyness about our 2006 flag). I can wait until then…


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[amazingjoshy]

Hawthorn have only had one (very) successful rebuild and that took nearly a decade (mid 90’s to mid 2000’s) to properly bear fruit. Admittedly once they got it right, it paid off big time

From 1997 to 2006 they made finals just twice (one and done appearances in 2000/01). Clarkson was the one who moved things along and built the dynasty that won the 2013-15 flags - the core of that three peat team also pinched the 2008 flag a few years earlier

Since 2015, they’ve made finals twice without winning any with their last appearance in 2018. In that time they’ve moved on a significant number of premiership players, some of whom made significant contributions to their new clubs

As it stands they are currently one of the favourites for the wooden spoon and 2-3 years away at least from being in contention if their current strategy succeeds

In terms of rebuilding, we are the only club with three distinct premiership teams in the AFL era - the 92/94 sides, 06 and 18

Collingwood (90 and 10), Essendon (93 and 00 sort of), Geelong (07-11 and 22), Hawthorn (88-91 and 08-15) and Sydney (05 and 12 sort of) have all had 2 distinct teams

Hawthorn are the only other club with 3 different premiership coaches

So when it comes to rebuilds we’ve been pretty good at them.

The problem we’ve had is that by spending relatively short periods at the bottom end of the ladder, we haven’t built quite the same depth of talent necessary for sustained runs at the top like Brisbane, Hawthorn, Geelong and Richmond. (There’s also an argument around our premiership sides being unable to find the motivation to go again)

The proven way to build a premiership side is through the draft like we’re currently trying to do. Pushing senior players out en masse during that process is a bit more hit and miss. We’ve generally erred on the side of retaining players for longer

There’s valid questions around Nisbett staying longer than he should have but it’s undeniable that there’s people at West Coast who know what it takes to be successful

I'd argue it's also partly just because harder to win flags from the other side of the country

 

[CountryLad]

A few points on all the posts above.
Keys is correct re Trev and the club knowing how to rebuild we have had two successful rebuilds 2005 side and 2018. I’m not including the 90s it was a different situation. Let Big Trev who’s in charge and club do there thing.
The other point is with the 22-27 age group, those saying play them so they can improve are kidding themselves. By this age you are showing what you have got as a footballer there is going to be no improvement in speed or skill.
Judd was as good at 23 as he was at 29.

Could make a case maybe for bigger blokes improving as they age but generally what you see at 25 is what your going to get.

 

[Keys]

I'd argue it's also partly just because harder to win flags from the other side of the country

That’s also a factor, definitely

 

[Keys]

A few points on all the posts above.
Keys is correct re Trev and the club knowing how to rebuild we have had two successful rebuilds 2005 side and 2018. I’m not including the 90s it was a different situation. Let Big Trev who’s in charge and club do there thing.
The other point is with the 22-27 age group, those saying play them so they can improve are kidding themselves. By this age you are showing what you have got as a footballer there is going to be no improvement in speed or skill.
Judd was as good at 23 as he was at 29.

Could make a case maybe for bigger blokes improving as they age but generally what you see at 25 is what your going to get.

It’s not the norm, but players can improve in that 22-27 age group

For example, Sheppard was a fairly middling player prior to 2014/15 when he settled as a half back after being in the system since the 2009 draft.

Gov also took a while although that was more a case of him taking football seriously and being professional about it

We’ve got Waterman, Petruccelle, Witherden, O’Neil, Foley, Jones, Williams, Rotham, H Edwards, West, Clark, Jamieson and Foley in that age group as players who’ve at times have shown glimpses of being capable of playing at the level required. What they haven’t done is do that consistently from week to week, or even within games

It’s possible that things could click for a couple of them and they elevate their game. Ideally several of them make the leap, although that would be unlikely

So they need to be given opportunities when their WAFL form justifies it

 

[RedWeddingGuest]

A few points on all the posts above.
Keys is correct re Trev and the club knowing how to rebuild we have had two successful rebuilds 2005 side and 2018. I’m not including the 90s it was a different situation. Let Big Trev who’s in charge and club do there thing.
The other point is with the 22-27 age group, those saying play them so they can improve are kidding themselves. By this age you are showing what you have got as a footballer there is going to be no improvement in speed or skill.
Judd was as good at 23 as he was at 29.

Could make a case maybe for bigger blokes improving as they age but generally what you see at 25 is what your going to get.

No kidding myself involved. The 22 to 27 year olds are what they are. We should get the best we can out of them (no silk purses out of sows’ ears, unfortunately). The concept is to look to the future, not at the past – and not to tread water. My suggestion was an overall approach: let the over 27s go (not all at once, obviously, but sensibly and methodologically, getting as much for each traded player as we can, or otherwise farewelling them gracefully), get what you can from the 22 to 27 year olds (some of whom may be better with additional opportunities than they currently appear) and blood the kids cautiously and methodologically. The cream will rise to the top. The theme of my post was the avoidance of log jams (even club favourite log jams like Craig Bradley, David Mundy and Buddy Franklin). We’re either in a rebuild (however described) or we’re not. And you can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs…


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[Rowan18]

It’s not the norm, but players can improve in that 22-27 age group

For example, Sheppard was a fairly middling player prior to 2014/15 when he settled as a half back after being in the system since the 2009 draft.

Gov also took a while although that was more a case of him taking football seriously and being professional about it

We’ve got Waterman, Petruccelle, Witherden, O’Neil, Foley, Jones, Williams, Rotham, H Edwards, West, Clark, Jamieson and Foley in that age group as players who’ve at times have shown glimpses of being capable of playing at the level required. What they haven’t done is do that consistently from week to week, or even within games

It’s possible that things could click for a couple of them and they elevate their game. Ideally several of them make the leap, although that would be unlikely

So they need to be given opportunities when their WAFL form justifies it

The good Guthrie at Geelong also jumped up around his late 20s. Menegola as well to an extent (though I think he's regressed). It may have also been a case of an average player looking better in a good side.

 

[ziad]

A few points on all the posts above.
Keys is correct re Trev and the club knowing how to rebuild we have had two successful rebuilds 2005 side and 2018. I’m not including the 90s it was a different situation. Let Big Trev who’s in charge and club do there thing.
The other point is with the 22-27 age group, those saying play them so they can improve are kidding themselves. By this age you are showing what you have got as a footballer there is going to be no improvement in speed or skill.
Judd was as good at 23 as he was at 29.

Could make a case maybe for bigger blokes improving as they age but generally what you see at 25 is what your going to get.

Reading the play can improve but fair to say leg seed is pretty well locked in before the draft. Thus all the testing for what its worth. The dark horse is that fast runners are not always fast footballers.

 

[CountryLad]

Reading the play can improve but fair to say leg seed is pretty well locked in before the draft. Thus all the testing for what its worth. The dark horse is that fast runners are not always fast footballers.

Yeah understand that small improvements can be made but its only going to be minor…. A supercar is a supercar, teams can get slightly more out of it by fine tuning the car but the car will never be a formula one car I guess is my point. Waterman, Petch, Xon, Witherden, Rotham, Duggin, Cole
ect ect are what they are they are never going to become something they aren’t already.
Best case result for all of them is that they can play a role in the team a little bit like how Duggin and Cole do at the moment.
Major improvement for our team is going to come from the draft and other talent we can bring in via trade and free agency.

 

[Lia]

I'm happy with those changes. Shows that if you play poorly then a guy who chops it up in the 2nds is ready to take your spot.

I think we were pretty generous with Chesser but I can accept the club trying to back him in for his development. If he has a similar game then I guess he'll go next week.

Chesser was selected quite a bit earlier than I expected him to be, I thought that given his lack of footy over the past couple of years, he would need time in the WAFL. I don't mind him being selected in the seniors at all but he is probably going to be a slow burn.

 

[DanWCE]

Chesser was selected quite a bit earlier than I expected him to be, I thought that given his lack of footy over the past couple of years, he would need time in the WAFL. I don't mind him being selected in the seniors at all but he is probably going to be a slow burn.

Quite a bit earlier? A few picks. Brisbane were going to take him but he didn't slide to them

 

[SumaGodCoach]

Quite a bit earlier? A few picks. Brisbane were going to take him but he didn't slide to them

I think he means selected to the senior side.

 

[Lia]

Quite a bit earlier? A few picks. Brisbane were going to take him but he didn't slide to them

In the senior side not the draft

 

[DanWCE]

In the senior side not the draft

Yeah that checks out Sorry

 

[triplegee]

Quite a bit earlier? A few picks. Brisbane were going to take him but he didn't slide to them

I reckon he was referring to his selection in the team being "quite a bit earlier" - not his draft selection.

 

[DanWCE]

Yeah I reckon he was referring to team selection not draft position

 

[Deplorable trumpster]

A few points on all the posts above.
Keys is correct re Trev and the club knowing how to rebuild we have had two successful rebuilds 2005 side and 2018. I’m not including the 90s it was a different situation. Let Big Trev who’s in charge and club do there thing.
The other point is with the 22-27 age group, those saying play them so they can improve are kidding themselves. By this age you are showing what you have got as a footballer there is going to be no improvement in speed or skill.
Judd was as good at 23 as he was at 29.

Could make a case maybe for bigger blokes improving as they age but generally what you see at 25 is what your going to get.

What are you suggesting we do then? Sack and immediately delist all players on our list 22 - 28 bar Allen, Barass and Ryan (who are the only clear decent automatic team selections from this period)? I don't think we have any choice but try and find some value in the wreckage.

And your post is contradictory. On the one hand you argue that we have had an 7 year period where we have nothing to show for it bar three players and have flushed the rest of our picks from that period down the toilet. And any club that has a 7 year draft period with nothing to show for it bar a couple of players is going to be the worst list in the comp. And i think we do have the worst list in the comp looking forward over a 5 year time horizon. Then you argue that the bloke who was responsible and in charge of the club during that 7 year period and has led us into this giant hole we are in is the right bloke to be in charge of leading us out of it. If the club's performance was as bad during this period as you say it was then why would you want Nisbett being in charge of steering the ship from here?

I would also add that Judd and Cousins are not fair comparisons to the average AFL player. They were generational players. Not 3rd round draft picks.

 

[Shueygod]

Saying a 22yo has reached his potential is one of the more ridiculous things I’ve read on this board recently.

 

[CountryLad]

What are you suggesting we do then? Sack and immediately delist all players on our list 22 - 28 bar Allen, Barass and Ryan (who are the only clear decent automatic team selections from this period)? I don't think we have any choice but try and find some value in the wreckage.

And your post is contradictory. On the one hand you argue that we have had an 7 year period where we have nothing to show for it bar three players and have flushed the rest of our picks from that period down the toilet. And any club that has a 7 year draft period with nothing to show for it bar a couple of players is going to be the worst list in the comp. And i think we do have the worst list in the comp looking forward over a 5 year time horizon. Then you argue that the bloke who was responsible and in charge of the club during that 7 year period and has led us into this giant hole we are in is the right bloke to be in charge of leading us out of it. If the club's performance was as bad during this period as you say it was then why would you want Nisbett being in charge of steering the ship from here?

I would also add that Judd and Cousins are not fair comparisons to the average AFL player. They were generational players. Not 3rd round draft picks.

I didn’t suggest anything about what the club should or shouldn’t do with those players. Your upset over something I didn’t say
What I did say was that there won’t be any massive upside in those players they are never going to be top tier players. I stand by that.

We are better off playing kids where possible.

If I was to suggest anything about those players it would be that hopefully the club can find some roles for some of them to play.

As for Trev yeah I reckon he knows a thing or two about running a football club and personally I would back him in to guide us through this mess. I’m entitled to my opinion. Enjoy your afternoon Trumpster

 

[CountryLad]

Saying a 22yo has reached his potential is one of the more ridiculous things I’ve read on this board recently.

Yeah agree with you there. I do think it’s being taken out out of context a little what I was trying to say.
The players that are in there mid 20s that are struggling to hold there positions or not getting a game such as Witherden,Waterman, Rotham, West, Clarke, SPS, Foley and Petch have all played enough footy at Afl or WAFL level for the club to have a good idea of where they are at as players.
Look at Allen and Ryan, similar age to those blokes you can tell they have made it at Afl level and will have long careers baring injury.

 

[eaglesnutcase]

I’ll reiterate! Norf weren’t that bad! Look at Norf,look at the Saints, even Adelaide in patches. If you are prepared to back your talent and go all in then anything is possible!
Gaff,Hurn,Sheed,Duggan etc need to realise they are no longer the front and centre poster boys for the club .They are support/ experience/more mature players. There is a place for them ; or some of them! But it’s a bit part!!