Werewolf The Grand Uncle Horace Memorial Simpsons Werewolf (Night 6)

[croweater 41]

MP_ OnlyFans is unsurprising.
View attachment 2079762

 

[BEaston]

I get fake results I am well aware of this.

In some games the fake seer actually becomes useful in differing between evil and good.

I have so far seer'd "two good roles" which in all liklihood are infact evil as I get the wrong results.

I don't control what role MCBG gives me I just pick the players, well the RNG picks the players with this many in the game.

So with Bfews fake role now dead the result doesn't help us that much. It helps us slightly if villager results are not given by fake seer or if they're combined - depends how MCBG runs the fake seer mechanic.

For BFew:
13 evil/neutral roles left
VS
12 good roles
13 if villager is included in fake seer results as one possible result
15 if all villagers are included


Clarkes result helps us slightly more

13 evil/neutral
VS
11 good roles
12 if "villager" is included as one possible result
14 if all villagers are included


Neither of these really indicate LIKELY evil. Roughly 50/50 either way.


What is more telling I think is the behavior change in Bfew from before the game and after it started as highlighted by MWPP.

 

[Hatchy1992]

Bfew for the moment thanks MC Bad Genius

 

[croweater 41]

So with Bfews fake role now dead the result doesn't help us that much. It helps us slightly if villager results are not given by fake seer or if they're combined - depends how MCBG runs the fake seer mechanic.

For BFew:
13 evil/neutral roles left
VS
12 good roles
13 if villager is included in fake seer results as one possible result
15 if all villagers are included


Clarkes result helps us slightly more

13 evil/neutral
VS
11 good roles
12 if "villager" is included as one possible result
14 if all villagers are included


Neither of these really indicate LIKELY evil. Roughly 50/50 either way.


What is more telling I think is the behavior change in Bfew from before the game and after it started as highlighted by MWPP.

 

[Gralin]

So with Bfews fake role now dead the result doesn't help us that much. It helps us slightly if villager results are not given by fake seer or if they're combined - depends how MCBG runs the fake seer mechanic.

For BFew:
13 evil/neutral roles left
VS
12 good roles
13 if villager is included in fake seer results as one possible result
15 if all villagers are included


Clarkes result helps us slightly more

13 evil/neutral
VS
11 good roles
12 if "villager" is included as one possible result
14 if all villagers are included


Neither of these really indicate LIKELY evil. Roughly 50/50 either way.


What is more telling I think is the behavior change in Bfew from before the game and after it started as highlighted by MWPP.

its almost exactly 50/50 whether someone is good or bad and 90% chance they have a role regardless of what it is


by my count there should have been 4 plain old springfieldians at the start
20 evil/neutral roles
21 good roles

we know there is a movementarian left based on the kill last night but its not the leader

so village is at 14 or 15 right now with a possible double agent, with Moe dead we don't have to worry about that one and its possible one of the evil or neutrals that could be recruited were

with no recruiting left it only really matters late game when numbers come into it

I'm curious why tarks has been gunning so hard for you

 

[dank420_]

Dank thanks MC Bad Genius for stating he is a pathetic animation Facist while having an abridged imagination.

nice melt

 

[thewizardmelon]

better than stumbling accross their onlyfans page...

Calendar coming out next month everyone - WW players get 5% off!

 

[Gralin]

nice melt

completely missed that lol

 

[BEaston]

its almost exactly 50/50 whether someone is good or bad and 90% chance they have a role regardless of what it is


by my count there should have been 4 plain old springfieldians at the start
20 evil/neutral roles
21 good roles

we know there is a movementarian left based on the kill last night but its not the leader

so village is at 14 or 15 right now with a possible double agent, with Moe dead we don't have to worry about that one and its possible one of the evil or neutrals that could be recruited were

with no recruiting left it only really matters late game when numbers come into it

I'm curious why tarks has been gunning so hard for you

Yeah not sure why he's gone off the deep end over a joke that was essentially a riff on his own reasoning that n1 death analysis is useless.

 

[Gralin]

Yeah not sure why he's gone off the deep end over a joke that was essentially a riff on his own reasoning that n1 death analysis is useless.

misdirection?
or missed kill?

 

[Tarkyn_24]

its almost exactly 50/50 whether someone is good or bad and 90% chance they have a role regardless of what it is


by my count there should have been 4 plain old springfieldians at the start
20 evil/neutral roles
21 good roles

we know there is a movementarian left based on the kill last night but its not the leader

so village is at 14 or 15 right now with a possible double agent, with Moe dead we don't have to worry about that one and its possible one of the evil or neutrals that could be recruited were

with no recruiting left it only really matters late game when numbers come into it

I'm curious why tarks has been gunning so hard for you

It’s behavioural.

 

[BEaston]

misdirection?
or missed kill?

The great man has answered

 

[Gralin]

The great man has answered

that's a suck up answer

 

[MWPP]

It's pretty obvious that's the case.
Not sure about the obfuscating over-analysis.

This game has so many unique roles that I posted my overthinking (I overthink anyway) in case there was some mechanism that would explain it, other than just naming convention.

What is more telling I think is the behavior change in Bfew from before the game and after it started as highlighted by MWPP.

FWIW I think his behaviour overnight (that weird accusation of crowwie) followed by the rushed vote on Pam has continued to be a little odd but I still prefer this approach over yesterdays ''randomiser before having time to check properly'' . I probed the Raz vote partly for that reason but to his credit, he engaged well. Your context yesterday about how the shift I pointed out yesterday is typical for him did lead to me cooling on him somewhat too.

I'm curious why tarks has been gunning so hard for you

And FWIW I have been curious about this too, not to mention the fact that the other to go for him has been KT. I see that Tarks then said it was behavioural but I haven't had that Behavioural read of BE (I thought he was good).

 

[MWPP]

followed by the rushed vote on Pam

Rushed vote on Raz with Pam

 

[BEaston]

that's a suck up answer

Did it need a sarcasm emoji?

Kinda just enjoying the rile up now as he's way off base.

I do find the behavioral reads on me kinda funny. To some I'm the lurkeriest evil of all time, and to others my tell is that I over post when evil. haha.

 

[DERO]

Tarkyn thanks.

MC Bad Genius

 

[BEaston]

This game has so many unique roles that I posted my overthinking (I overthink anyway) in case there was some mechanism that would explain it, other than just naming convention.

FWIW I think his behaviour overnight (that weird accusation of crowwie) followed by the rushed vote on Pam has continued to be a little odd but I still prefer this approach over yesterdays ''randomiser before having time to check properly'' . I probed the Raz vote partly for that reason but to his credit, he engaged well. Your context yesterday about how the shift I pointed out yesterday is typical for him did lead to me cooling on him somewhat too.

And FWIW I have been curious about this too, not to mention the fact that the other to go for him has been KT. I see that Tarks then said it was behavioural but I haven't had that Behavioural read of BE (I thought he was good).

Strange behaviour is in character for BFew

KT would almost always vote for me if given the chance as he's still salty about a modkill from about 20 games ago.

 

[TheGoatBaron]

Try this for size then Dude....

A modkill for the mod?

 

[MWPP]

In case anyone other than me is interested in looking at night actions I went back to check if CF had posted something that may have spooked the SK and/or the duo into that double hit (and offer hints on their identities since both are presumably solo killers at this point) but turns out his only contribution yesterday was the above quick vote on KT. I can only chalk that double up down to chance /someone experienced picking people at random.

 

[Gralin]

Tarkyn thanks.

MC Bad Genius

tarkyn_24 thanks MC Bad Genius

 

[TheGoatBaron]

Well you’ve claimed Gil haven’t you, so the strategy of coming out early is a good one.

Can’t do much with this character anyway. They have no powers

 

[serial_thrilla]

We've already established that this playing group is awful at subtlety. Let's instead try the superliminal approach:

Tarkyn_24

 

[MWPP]

Demure Princess please MC Bad Genius

Demure Princess again, thanks MC Bad Genius.

Is this because she has been quieter than we would expect? Granted I haven't played that much with her but I expected more contributions from the small sample size I have seen in WW (not to mention , the SFA)
I was looking at the playing list and she stood out most as someone I have barely noticed

 

[jmoo wan]

It’s behavioural.

I think it’s environmental, i think it’s got to do with living in a big city, i think it’s lifestyle