Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[Marcel Proust]

According to HS both hawks and Richmond wanted Stocker. Richmond’s first pick was at 20 I believe. No?? They could of easily had stocker much higher.

https://outline.com/5naMM8

"Stocker was recently interviewed by Hawthorn and it is believed the Hawks considered trading their future first-round pick to land one of this season’s big improvers.

But the Blues swooped at No.19, trading away their future first-round pick to Adelaide to pinch Stocker before Richmond... Richmond wanted Liam Stocker and Hawthorn met him last week."


My understanding is that Richmond had RCD above Stocker on their draft board. Richmond expecting RCD to be taken before their pick.

Geelong (pick 15) were high on RCD before going for the defender eventually

 

[Marcel Proust]

Curnow has more upside IMO. He's just in a bit of a slump at the moment.

Unsurprising given many CHF dont blossom until mid 20s, and he is getting terrible service from Carlton players.

Hipwood is 21 and 203cm, very talented.

Id be choosing him if given the option.

That said either of them would be nice players for the Tigers reserve team

 

[a mayes ing]

Curnow has more upside IMO. He's just in a bit of a slump at the moment.

Unsurprising given many CHF dont blossom until mid 20s, and he is getting terrible service from Carlton players.

Interesting because l would think Hippy has more upside. He is a stringbean whereas Curnow already has an AFL body. Hippy also has much high speed than Curnow and his contested marking is just starting to develop now so he has had to rely on evasive skills to get his goals. If he can combine his evasive skills with his CM then l reckon he will be a lot better than Curnow. Combine that with a much better and offensive gameplan than Carltons means he should get more goals.

 

[Dede]

Future second plus pick 43 state league player (yet to play a game btw). Future second got back to Adelaide from GWS. what’s the problem with setterfield. ACL in 2018. Played 4 games this year suspended for 2 weeks for dangerous tackle. Touted as pick 1 in front of McGrath in 2016. It’s a super win to SOS and his team. Will be a gun.

Dropped from a team last that is crying out for midfielders! Ehhh !

Another note.sos trading out pick 15 for marchbank who wouldn't be best 22 any other club. that 2017 draft has killed Carlton and hurt the rebuild.. didn't the lions end up with that cats pick and take Bailey. Full circle

 

[TooBlue14]

You forgot to mention Setterfield is also one of the 13 future All-Australians on your list...

According to Nathan Brown. Not me. At it was used as a negative.

 

[TooBlue14]

"Stocker was recently interviewed by Hawthorn and it is believed the Hawks considered trading their future first-round pick to land one of this season’s big improvers.

But the Blues swooped at No.19, trading away their future first-round pick to Adelaide to pinch Stocker before Richmond... Richmond wanted Liam Stocker and Hawthorn met him last week."


My understanding is that Richmond had RCD above Stocker on their draft board. Richmond expecting RCD to be taken before their pick.

Geelong (pick 15) were high on RCD before going for the defender eventually

Have you got any evidence of this. Media article? Or is it just your opinion.

 

[TooBlue14]

Dropped from a team last that is crying out for midfielders! Ehhh !

Another note.sos trading out pick 15 for marchbank who wouldn't be best 22 any other club. that 2017 draft has killed Carlton and hurt the rebuild.. didn't the lions end up with that cats pick and take Bailey. Full circle

I’ve got no issue with Marchbank. Imo he plays for every AFL team if they had him. You’re kidding yourself if you think he wouldn’t be playing instead of Roughead right now who got thrown away by the dogs. He was amazing v Collingwood two weeks back. 23 disposals. 9 intercept marks. He’s a gun. Carltons issues are midfield pressure due to youth and inexperience. It puts our backline under enormous pressure regularly. Marchbank would be saint kildas number 1 defender. At Carlton he gets to be number 3 unless injury forces him up the chain like when he took jones’ role v Collingwood. Look How well he did.

 

[TooBlue14]

Dropped from a team last that is crying out for midfielders! Ehhh !

Another note.sos trading out pick 15 for marchbank who wouldn't be best 22 any other club. that 2017 draft has killed Carlton and hurt the rebuild.. didn't the lions end up with that cats pick and take Bailey. Full circle

I actually think the setterfield dropping has a lot to do with the mental side of the game after his injury. He’s been ripped apart in the post game according to a few on carltons bigfooty page. Off field and his preparation hasn’t been up to scratch. He’s obviously coming from a long way back and he’s not quite ready. He’s played 5 games in over 18 months and he’s just turned 21. Still averaging more than most in his draft year. Now that’s pretty good despite his huge setbacks.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Have you got any evidence of this. Media article? Or is it just your opinion.

There is some evidence for Richmond; they hold a event where they discuss the draft.

The Geelong one no evidence but a strong whisper from inside.

 

[TooBlue14]

There is some evidence for Richmond; they hold a event where they discuss the draft.

The Geelong one no evidence but a strong whisper from inside.

Easy to say after the fact though. Carltons clear evidence in video form showing them looking at stocker as early as 11. One the phone regularly to Adelaide very early. Saints offered up their future first for the same deal with Adelaide and they turned it down. Adelaide wants duursma at 19 but he went at 18 to port. If he was still on the board Adelaide would of said no and gone for duursma instead of pick 1-3 for 19 and future first. It goes to show how weak they thought this draft is in comparison.

Richmond were drooling over stocker pre draft and I think they would of taken him with 20 if he was still there. They were pissed they missed out and are saving face now. Watching stockers games the last 3 weeks is testament to his toughness. His stocks will rise fast I believe. Top 3 carlton in posessions last weekend in a shit show for the club.

 

[Robertio]

You forgot to mention Setterfield is also one of the 13 future All-Australians on your list...

14 if you count Dunkley.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Richmond were drooling over stocker pre draft and I think they would of taken him with 20 if he was still there.

Richmond rated RCD and Hill ahead of Stocker on their draft board. According to the evidence supplied from the RFC at a members function. As far as I am aware.

They were pissed they missed out and are saving face now. Watching stockers games the last 3 weeks is testament to his toughness. His stocks will rise fast I believe. Top 3 carlton in posessions last weekend in a **** show for the club.

Somehow I doubt it.

Do you think the Tigers would swap Jack Ross(pick43) for Stocker now if given the option?

 

[TooBlue14]

Richmond rated RCD and Hill ahead of Stocker on their draft board. According to the evidence supplied from the RFC at a members function. As far as I am aware.





Somehow I doubt it.

Do you think the Tigers would swap Jack Ross(pick43) for Stocker now if given the option?

I wouldn’t do that trade even if you chucked in another first rounder. But what does stocker have to do with pick 43. I wouldn’t take anyone picked after stocker in replace for him right now at Carlton. I’d probably only pick 5 players picked in front of him too.

Walsh
Rozee
Smith
Duursma

Maybe clark or Blakely but one wasn’t allowed and a forward we don’t need the other a defender we don’t need.

 

[Marcel Proust]

I wouldn’t do that trade even if you chucked in another first rounder.

Ok, noted

 

[TooBlue14]

Ok, noted

Edit: see above

 

[Marcel Proust]

Edit: see above

Sydney Stack > Stocker

Its a bit radical to take Stocker or King x2 and Lukosius

 

[TooBlue14]

Sydney Stack > Stocker

Its a bit radical to take Stocker or King x2 and Lukosius

Carlton didn’t need them. Stack wasn’t on anyone’s table and I’m still not convinced. He gets a lot of media attention because of his story but he’s got a long way to go.

Edit: as does stocker. But they’ve actually performed similarly so far. But stocker not getting the storyline that stack is.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Carlton didn’t need them. Stocker wasn’t on anyone’s table and I’m still not convinced. He gets a lot of media attention because of his story but he’s averaging what 8-10 touches a game in a winning side. Stocker doing nearly double that.

Your futures hopes have kicked like 90 odd(?) afl goals thus far. Its looney bin material to overlook the outstanding kpp over stocker from a neutral perspective.

There is more to footy than possessions. Ask Jack Viney. Ross got more of it than Stocker but you disregarded that remember?

Stack > Stocker imho as a player and prospect

 

[TooBlue14]

Your futures hopes have kicked like 90 odd(?) afl goals thus far. Its looney bin material to overlook the outstanding kpp over stocker from a neutral perspective.

There is more to footy than possessions. Ask Jack Viney.

Stack > Stocker imho as a player and prospect

Let’s wait and see on that one. Re: stack/stocker
I’m not adding another tall forward to mcgovern McKay or Curnow (Kerr in vfl) as they’ve all shown glimpses. They’re in their 4th/5th years and will need time. Lukosius and kings aren’t taking a spot off any of them right now. They’d barely get a goal each a game in our side right now. McKay just dominated one of the best defenders in the game last weekend. He’d be kicking 50-60 in a side like Geelong right now. Curnow having an off year buts it’s knee related. McGovern playing 1 game then missing isn’t helping but he’s still kicking his 2 a game.

2 of those 3 are in the top 30 for goals in the AFL despite our scoring struggles in 2/9 games this year.

McKay - 16
McGovern - 14
Curnow - 4 (34 in 2018)

Those three are playing together for the 10 years hopefully. Look out when it works. No room for kings or lukosius.

 

[btdg]

Just to get back to the Brisbane/Carlton comparison, I thought it worth comparing the median age and games played of the teams, year by year. I've used round 1 games each season as a proxy - as close to best 22 as likely to be seen

2019:
Brisbane age = 24yr 258days, 81.5 games
Carlton age = 23yrs 10 days, 40 games

2018:
Brisbane age = 23yr, 288 days, 67.5 games
Carlton age = 23yr, 55 days, 54.5 games

2017:
Brisbane age = 22yr 125 days, 69.5 games
Carlton age = 24yr 124 days, 72 games

2016:
Brisbane age = 24yr 15 days 51 games
Carlton age = 26yr 103 days 57.5 games

2015:
Brisbane age = 24yr 115 days, 65 games
Carlton age = 26yr 25 days, 74 games

For a comparison: Here's the current top 4 and their median age and games played in round 1:
Geelong 26yrs 103 days / 62.5 games. Collingwood 26 yrs 23 days / 85 games. GWS 25 yrs 55 days / 72 games. Richmond 26 yrs 151 days / 113 games. And some bottom teams: St Kilda 24 125 days / 64.5 games. Gold Coast 23 yr 168 days / 61 games

I've said it before in this thread, but the position Carlton started from was perhaps the worst in recent history. We were last in 2015 with a list in its absolute prime, and very few solid calibre youngsters. The real apocalypse wasn't 2015 - it was always going to be 2018, when Gibbs, Murphy, Kreuzer, etc all started turning 30.That's when we made a committment to rebuilding the list over 3 years. Our list has got younger and younger each year.

Day 1 for Carlton was really the start of this season. This is the youngest we'll be - our round 1 squad this year featured 14 players aged 24 or younger. Of those 12 were picked in the top 20 of the draft. That's the core we're building around, who will get older, more experienced and better. That's not saying it'll lead to anything. But its a core that it is possible to build around - albeit an insanely young one compared to the rest of the league.

Brisbane, on the other hand, probably had their 'day 1' in 2016 - that's when their average games played stopped falling, and starting rising again, as they started to get their 'core' together, and they've grown in age and experience since - up to this year, when their profile starts to look pretty close to that of a contender - and next year, they'll probably be right there.

*** all medians calculated manually using AFL tables and in a bit of a rush - I may have made some errors (particularly on the days)

 

[Marcel Proust]

Let’s wait and see on that one. Re: stack/stocker
I’m not adding another tall forward to mcgovern McKay or Curnow (Kerr in vfl) as they’ve all shown glimpses. They’re in their 4th/5th years and will need time. Lukosius and kings aren’t taking a spot off any of them right now. They’d barely get a goal each a game in our side right now. McKay just dominated one of the best defenders in the game last weekend. He’d be kicking 50-60 in a side like Geelong right now. Curnow having an off year buts it’s knee related. McGovern playing 1 game then missing isn’t helping but he’s still kicking his 2 a game.

2 of those 3 are in the top 30 for goals in the AFL despite our scoring struggles in 2/9 games this year.

McKay - 16
McGovern - 14
Curnow - 4 (34 in 2018)

Those three are playing together for the 10 years hopefully. Look out when it works. No room for kings or lukosius.

if a magic fairly appeared today or draft day and offered SOS, Bolton, Judd etc. a swap theyd do it in a heart beat

 

[TooBlue14]

if a magic fairly appeared today or draft day and offered SOS, Bolton, Judd etc. a swap theyd do it in a heart beat

You’re deluded. Wouldn’t happen.

 

[Checkered]

Head in the sand stuff to say that Day 1 started 2019. Unless you're resetting after the last Day 1 which was when Bolton took over.

 

[Fadge]

Head in the sand stuff to say that Day 1 started 2019. Unless you're resetting after the last Day 1 which was when Bolton took over.

So the 'real' game one of Carlton's rebuild was actually game 67 of their 66 game rebuild?

Gee I'm glad I support a real AFL club...

 

[blitzer]

Just to get back to the Brisbane/Carlton comparison, I thought it worth comparing the median age and games played of the teams, year by year. I've used round 1 games each season as a proxy - as close to best 22 as likely to be seen

2019:
Brisbane age = 24yr 258days, 81.5 games
Carlton age = 23yrs 10 days, 40 games

2018:
Brisbane age = 23yr, 288 days, 67.5 games
Carlton age = 23yr, 55 days, 54.5 games

2017:
Brisbane age = 22yr 125 days, 69.5 games
Carlton age = 24yr 124 days, 72 games

2016:
Brisbane age = 24yr 15 days 51 games
Carlton age = 26yr 103 days 57.5 games

2015:
Brisbane age = 24yr 115 days, 65 games
Carlton age = 26yr 25 days, 74 games

For a comparison: Here's the current top 4 and their median age and games played in round 1:
Geelong 26yrs 103 days / 62.5 games. Collingwood 26 yrs 23 days / 85 games. GWS 25 yrs 55 days / 72 games. Richmond 26 yrs 151 days / 113 games. And some bottom teams: St Kilda 24 125 days / 64.5 games. Gold Coast 23 yr 168 days / 61 games

I've said it before in this thread, but the position Carlton started from was perhaps the worst in recent history. We were last in 2015 with a list in its absolute prime, and very few solid calibre youngsters. The real apocalypse wasn't 2015 - it was always going to be 2018, when Gibbs, Murphy, Kreuzer, etc all started turning 30.That's when we made a committment to rebuilding the list over 3 years. Our list has got younger and younger each year.

Day 1 for Carlton was really the start of this season. This is the youngest we'll be - our round 1 squad this year featured 14 players aged 24 or younger. Of those 12 were picked in the top 20 of the draft. That's the core we're building around, who will get older, more experienced and better. That's not saying it'll lead to anything. But its a core that it is possible to build around - albeit an insanely young one compared to the rest of the league.

Brisbane, on the other hand, probably had their 'day 1' in 2016 - that's when their average games played stopped falling, and starting rising again, as they started to get their 'core' together, and they've grown in age and experience since - up to this year, when their profile starts to look pretty close to that of a contender - and next year, they'll probably be right there.

*** all medians calculated manually using AFL tables and in a bit of a rush - I may have made some errors (particularly on the days)

Well the stats were good but then the inferences from the stats were extremely dodgy and basically just long suffering Carlton fan propaganda and a lot of hindsight justification.

Day 1 of your rebuild was when you brought Bolton in and said you were going to rebuild, you can't just ignore 3 years of building just because you didn't have an ideal starting position. This may come as a surprise but every team that does a full rebuild has a completely stuffed up list. Eg Richmond, Melbourne, Brisbane at various points over the last decade or so. A median age of 23 isn't even that young, we've seen far younger sides take the field in the 2010s. We've also seen numerous teams improve more in 1 preseason than Carlton has in 4 of them.

Selling this idea that rebuilding is an impossible task is just pure nonsense. The biggest thing the whole Carlton club lacks, from the fans to the players is an honest desire and expectation of winning every time they take the field. That's the cultural change that needs to happen.

Brisbane aren't better than Carlton because they are older its because their recruiting absolutely craps all over Carlton's over a period of time where both teams have had similar picks and opportunities (Carlton actually have had a bit more but similar enough).