List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 7

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THE_GUN said:
We would be absolutely crazy not to put the offer intentions to JUH manager and let him know that he has the #2 Jumper waiting for him at Richmond or #8 , #9 , #12 and $10,000,000 waiting in that locker
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he is a spud bro
 

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One thing that strikes me is when I go back through this thread and look at some of names people are doing hypothetical trades for........there is not a whole lot out there, especially key forwards. We have got by far and away the best key forward in Lynch and then there is daylight, more daylight, and a long long way back.........um, not sure.

Hawkins and Tex and like 55 and will either retire or stay at their club. Dixon is one of the most over rated spuds I can remember. The next group of say the Kings, Curnow, McKay, Larkey, etc. seem to be free kicks or no kicks.

The Bulldogs have some interesting decisions coming up. I do rate Naughton but obviously he is now locked away. They have Ugle-Hagan who is tracking well so far but I am still far from convinced. They also have Darcy and Croft just starting their careers. Both are father and son selections, so if they show some promise trying to prise them away will be difficult.

People have suggested Marshall from Port via free agency as a backup. I understand he would not cost draft picks but I would assume in that case we would need to pay a high salary so Port wouldn't match. I haven't watched him enough to know but would he definitely be best 22, with or without Lynchy?

I understand the need for a Lynch replacement but I just don't see one out there. So looking inward, we need to develop at least one of Gibcus, Koschitzke, Balta or Ryan as a key forward. I like Young at CHB. Miller just hasn't shown enough. Bauer is more of a third forward. Fawcett has just started.

More questions than answers at the moment. Good luck to the list management team trying to sort this out.
 
Googstar said:
More questions than answers at the moment. Good luck to the list management team trying to sort this out.
Click to expand...
Easy Peasy...play Cut Lunch till he turns 35...then when he retires play Dusty one out at Full Forward! Dusty's Paddock!
 
JUH is going to be the star, but it will take a Sydney-esque long term million dollar+ a year deal to get him to go anywhere and that's a risk for any club.

Also, he's a long way from FA/RFA and we wouldn't want to do another mega trade. He'd cost more than our recent acquisitions.
 
captain cotch 9 said:
99% of the games best forwards are drafted and drafted high
Click to expand...

Recent Premiership key forwards and how the club got them:

2023

Mihocek - rookie mature draftee
Frampton - low cost trade
Cox - Cat B Rookie

2022

Hawkins - F/S 3rd round selection under old f/s rules
Cameron - free agent cum expensive trade

2021

Brown - low trade cost salary dump
McDonald - pick 53

2020

Riewoldt - pick 13
Lynch - free agent acquisition

2019

As for 2020

2018

Kennedy - trade as part of Judd deal
Darling - pick 26

2017

Riewoldt
Townsend - low cost trade

2016

Tom Boyd - high cost trade
Zaine Cordy - pick 62


Coleman winners a different story:

2023

Curnow - pick 12

2022

As for 2023

2021

Harold McKay - pick 10

2020

Tom Hawkins - 3rd round pick under old father-on rules

2019

Jeremy Cameron - under-age pre-draft selection(equivalent to a top 5 pick)

2018

Riewoldt - pick 13

2017

Franklin - pick 5


And on it goes. To find a Coleman Medal winner who was not essentially a first round draft pick in the last 20 years you have:

2006 & 09

Fevola - pick 38



So if you want the Coleman Medallist, you probably need to use a first round pick to recruit him. If you want to win a flag, you can get key forwards from any source.
 
Meteoric Rise said:
Recent Premiership key forwards and how the club got them:

2023

Mihocek - rookie mature draftee
Frampton - low cost trade
Cox - Cat B Rookie

2022

Hawkins - F/S 3rd round selection under old f/s rules
Cameron - free agent cum expensive trade

2021

Brown - low trade cost salary dump
McDonald - pick 53

2020

Riewoldt - pick 13
Lynch - free agent acquisition

2019

As for 2020

2018

Kennedy - trade as part of Judd deal
Darling - pick 26

2017

Riewoldt
Townsend - low cost trade

2016

Tom Boyd - high cost trade
Zaine Cordy - pick 62


Coleman winners a different story:

2023

Curnow - pick 12

2022

As for 2023

2021

Harold McKay - pick 10

2020

Tom Hawkins - 3rd round pick under old father-on rules

2019

Jeremy Cameron - under-age pre-draft selection(equivalent to a top 5 pick)

2018

Riewoldt - pick 13

2017

Franklin - pick 5


And on it goes. To find a Coleman Medal winner who was not essentially a first round draft pick in the last 20 years you have:

2006 & 09

Fevola - pick 38



So if you want the Coleman Medallist, you probably need to use a first round pick to recruit him. If you want to win a flag, you can get key forwards from any source.
Click to expand...

Whilst these guys are not Coleman medallists, they are in the top collection of primary forwards in the game today, and not a single one of them a top-10 pick … and loads of later picks:

Nick Larkey: Pick 73
Taylor Walker: Pick 75
Mitch Lewis:: Pick 76
Oscar Allen :pick 21
Todd Marshall : Pick 16
Fritsch: Pick 31
C Curnow: Pick 12
Tom Lynch: Pick 11
Eric Hipwood: Pick 14
Toby Greene: Pick 11
Kyle Langford: Pick 17
Mihocek: Rookie draft

(Jack R was pick 13).

So whilst odds are to get a top echelon KPF a top-20 pick is needed, there is still some gold beyond 20. But it’s clear you don’t need a top-10 pick. And we are certainties to have multiple top-20 picks this year with point swaps etc… if we want to hit the draft.

And finally….Pies 2023, Demons 2021, Dogs 2016, Swans 2012, Cats 2007 & 2009, Eagles 2006 have proven a gun KPF is not essential to win a flag. That’s 7 of the last 18 flags won by teams without what you’d regard as a ‘gun’ KPF.


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Meteoric Rise said:
Recent Premiership key forwards and how the club got them:

2023

Mihocek - rookie mature draftee
Frampton - low cost trade
Cox - Cat B Rookie

2022

Hawkins - F/S 3rd round selection under old f/s rules
Cameron - free agent cum expensive trade

2021

Brown - low trade cost salary dump
McDonald - pick 53

2020

Riewoldt - pick 13
Lynch - free agent acquisition

2019

As for 2020

2018

Kennedy - trade as part of Judd deal
Darling - pick 26

2017

Riewoldt
Townsend - low cost trade

2016

Tom Boyd - high cost trade
Zaine Cordy - pick 62


Coleman winners a different story:

2023

Curnow - pick 12

2022

As for 2023

2021

Harold McKay - pick 10

2020

Tom Hawkins - 3rd round pick under old father-on rules

2019

Jeremy Cameron - under-age pre-draft selection(equivalent to a top 5 pick)

2018

Riewoldt - pick 13

2017

Franklin - pick 5


And on it goes. To find a Coleman Medal winner who was not essentially a first round draft pick in the last 20 years you have:

2006 & 09

Fevola - pick 38



So if you want the Coleman Medallist, you probably need to use a first round pick to recruit him. If you want to win a flag, you can get key forwards from any source.
Click to expand...
A good point you've made here, however, most supporters are not prepared to wait to find a gun KPF in the draft and develope, especially when the next draft is supposedly bereft of KP talent. I'd rather spend a couple of years building our running power. We lack speed and have a shortage of good small forwards. Also we need to acquire some high possession midfield types. As much as our midfield looks okay on paper, stats say differently. The next draft is by all reports a high end onballer draft and our young players have yet to come through. if they fail to do so, then our age demographic will be disastrous. We need to build from below. We are not in the premiership window. A free agent KPF can be acquired in 2 or 3 years.
 
sregit said:
A good point you've made here, however, most supporters are not prepared to wait to find a gun KPF in the draft and develope, especially when the next draft is supposedly bereft of KP talent. I'd rather spend a couple of years building our running power. We lack speed and have a shortage of good small forwards. Also we need to acquire some high possession midfield types. As much as our midfield looks okay on paper, stats say differently. The next draft is by all reports a high end onballer draft and our young players have yet to come through. if they fail to do so, then our age demographic will be disastrous. We need to build from below. We are not in the premiership window. A free agent KPF can be acquired in 2 or 3 years.
Click to expand...

Yes, I agree. I believe this draft we stick with our strategy of using top-30 picks on ‘best available’ … if that’s a KPF then great, but if not, let’s continue trying to draft more elite talent. Everyone here talks about trading for JUH or Cadman (not any more) or King etc… but if the rest of our list isn’t good enough it’s a waste of time having a gun KPF, and will be diabolical to ‘sell the farm’ in top draft picks to get one of our list is not good enough elsewhere.

Obviously everything depends on 2024 … if our highly talented young crop take massive strides from more opportunities then a trade for a KPF may be viable if there’s an opportunity. But if too many of our youngsters remain in the VFL or are not up to scratch it’s vital we smash the draft as hard as we can end of 2024.

I’m actually very bullish on most of our youth as I like what I’ve seen in regards to physical attributes and/or talent.

Sometimes youngsters just look like spuds from the get go …. Will Martyn, RCD, Biggy, MRJ (sorry but I’ve pretty much lost hope with Junior) … but I don’t feel that with many of our current crop.


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Noidnadroj said:
Yes, I agree. I believe this draft we stick with our strategy of using top-30 picks on ‘best available’ … if that’s a KPF then great, but if not, let’s continue trying to draft more elite talent. Everyone here talks about trading for JUH or Cadman (not any more) or King etc… but if the rest of our list isn’t good enough it’s a waste of time having a gun KPF, and will be diabolical to ‘sell the farm’ in top draft picks to get one of our list is not good enough elsewhere.

Obviously everything depends on 2024 … if our highly talented young crop take massive strides from more opportunities then a trade for a KPF may be viable if there’s an opportunity. But if too many of our youngsters remain in the VFL or are not up to scratch it’s vital we smash the draft as hard as we can end of 2024.

I’m actually very bullish on most of our youth as I like what I’ve seen in regards to physical attributes and/or talent.

Sometimes youngsters just look like spuds from the get go …. Will Martyn, RCD, Biggy, MRJ (sorry but I’ve pretty much lost hope with Junior) … but I don’t feel that with many of our current crop.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
Click to expand...

Ye of little.


2024 will be like 1948 all over again. A classic year for Maurice Minor.

1703602140101.png
 
LTT said:
In the last 30 years we have drafted two champion kpf’s. Jack Riewoldt and Matthew Richardson. Actually make that 1 kpf because Richardson was a father/son. When you think about how many first round picks we have wasted then 2 first round picks for JUH would be a bargain
Click to expand...
1st rnd kpf's success rate over the past decade isn't that crash hot either.
Bigger risk drafting imo.
 
Noidnadroj said:
Yes, I agree. I believe this draft we stick with our strategy of using top-30 picks on ‘best available’ … if that’s a KPF then great, but if not, let’s continue trying to draft more elite talent. Everyone here talks about trading for JUH or Cadman (not any more) or King etc… but if the rest of our list isn’t good enough it’s a waste of time having a gun KPF, and will be diabolical to ‘sell the farm’ in top draft picks to get one of our list is not good enough elsewhere.

Obviously everything depends on 2024 … if our highly talented young crop take massive strides from more opportunities then a trade for a KPF may be viable if there’s an opportunity. But if too many of our youngsters remain in the VFL or are not up to scratch it’s vital we smash the draft as hard as we can end of 2024.

I’m actually very bullish on most of our youth as I like what I’ve seen in regards to physical attributes and/or talent.

Sometimes youngsters just look like spuds from the get go …. Will Martyn, RCD, Biggy, MRJ (sorry but I’ve pretty much lost hope with Junior) … but I don’t feel that with many of our current crop.


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Click to expand...
Could not agree more with everything you’ve said but not about MJR. He had a terrible season no doubt, but he possesses some great traits that are definitely AFL standard. Dedication to fitness my only query on him but he’s only 21 years old and well worth persisting with imo
 
tigerfan1961 said:
Could not agree more with everything you’ve said but not about MJR. He had a terrible season no doubt, but he possesses some great traits that are definitely AFL standard. Dedication to fitness my only query on him but he’s only 21 years old and well worth persisting with imo
Click to expand...

I’m happy they are persisting as he needs more chances, but I have multiple concerns … he can’t kick over a jam tin. He seems to lack the elite and freakish skills majority of indigenous players have. He misses easy snaps, he makes poor decisions etc… he just never gives those ‘wow’ moments ….and he looks quick but he really isn’t - he’s agile but straight line running he’s pretty slow.




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Noidnadroj said:
I’m happy they are persisting as he needs more chances, but I have multiple concerns … he can’t kick over a jam tin. He seems to lack the elite and freakish skills majority of indigenous players have. He misses easy snaps, he makes poor decisions etc… he just never gives those ‘wow’ moments ….and he looks quick but he really isn’t - he’s agile but straight line running he’s pretty slow.




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Click to expand...

Maurice has displayed all those things, straight line speed in abundance, freakish skills, kicking over a jam tin including one 50m set shot goal, and a crucial conversion from 40m to put us ahead very late v Cats 2022. His disposal skills are no doubt on the rustic side but as he builds his tank he will find himself under less and less pressure when needing to dispose of the ball.

Look at his game by game player ratings. Reasonably decent small forwards I think average about 8 or 9 player rating. Brad Close, Dan Butler, Neal-Bullen, Bobby Hill(2023 only) are in this type of range. These guys are playing the sorts of roles Maurice can aspire to. Maurice is a long way below that average at 4.64 across his career. Obviously his tank isn't great and he has been sub a lot. As his tank builds and TOG increases to over 80% on average, you can add 25% to his player rating with no other improvement in his game. So that brings him to about 5.8 player rating career average.

But the better guide is surely his 2022 season, and ignoring his couple of 2021 matches and his aberration in 2023. His average player rating in 2022 was 6.26. Add 25% to that for his extra TOG as his tank builds, you are immediately up to about 7.9. Give him a bit of improvement in other areas, knowledge of game plan, skill improvement etc, his 2022 season puts him right on track to be in that 8-9 player rating range of these other decent small forwards.

What excites me though is some of the games he has rated well in:

12.6 v Briz in the final 2022
9.5 v Blues rd 1 2023
8.9 v Cats big game rd 15 2022
14.2 v Pies in front of a big crowd 2022
9.2 v Bombers Dreamtime

He just needs to get his mind and body right.
 
Noidnadroj said:
Whilst these guys are not Coleman medallists, they are in the top collection of primary forwards in the game today, and not a single one of them a top-10 pick … and loads of later picks:

Nick Larkey: Pick 73
Taylor Walker: Pick 75
Mitch Lewis:: Pick 76
Oscar Allen :pick 21
Todd Marshall : Pick 16
Fritsch: Pick 31
C Curnow: Pick 12
Tom Lynch: Pick 11
Eric Hipwood: Pick 14
Toby Greene: Pick 11
Kyle Langford: Pick 17
Mihocek: Rookie draft

(Jack R was pick 13).

So whilst odds are to get a top echelon KPF a top-20 pick is needed, there is still some gold beyond 20. But it’s clear you don’t need a top-10 pick. And we are certainties to have multiple top-20 picks this year with point swaps etc… if we want to hit the draft.

And finally….Pies 2023, Demons 2021, Dogs 2016, Swans 2012, Cats 2007 & 2009, Eagles 2006 have proven a gun KPF is not essential to win a flag. That’s 7 of the last 18 flags won by teams without what you’d regard as a ‘gun’ KPF.


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Click to expand...
You were going good until Kyle Langford. He is a massive spud.
 
Noidnadroj said:
I’m happy they are persisting as he needs more chances, but I have multiple concerns … he can’t kick over a jam tin. He seems to lack the elite and freakish skills majority of indigenous players have. He misses easy snaps, he makes poor decisions etc… he just never gives those ‘wow’ moments ….and he looks quick but he really isn’t - he’s agile but straight line running he’s pretty slow.




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
Click to expand...
So you're saying he's a spud! A long way from being a CHIP of the block that's for sure. I agree with you!
 
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