Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Zidane98]

Russian column up in flames at Rylsk

 

[Zidane98]

 

[CD Xbow]

The Warzone has a long piece about the Ukrainian invasion of Russia. Certainly more than a raid, folks seem to be calling it a counter offensive. Chance to stretch the legs of those western military vehicles and engage in some manoeuvre warfare, which Russia is poor at. Change the game to one Ukraine is good at - a brilliant move. How far will they go? How long will they stay? Will they try to keep control of some Russian territory?

Ukrainian Forces Make Major Gains Inside Russia On Day Three Of Kursk Invasion (Updated)

Ukraine is continuing to pour troops and equipment into Russia as it sees success in its bold but risky operation in Kursk.

www.twz.com

It contained this comment that caught my eye:
Russia is trying to beef up its forces in the area by convincing experienced drone operators from the Zaporizhia region to join the fight. They are being offered 220,000 rubles (about $2,500) per month to come to Kursk and will have drones provided for them, according to the Russian Thirteenth Telegram channel.

Firstly it suggest the drone operator are contractors, not military. Secondly the Drones are not networked in any substantial way. If they were you wouldn't have to move the operators.

 

[EagleMan87]

The Warzone has a long piece about the Ukrainian invasion of Russia. Certainly more than a raid, folks seem to be calling it a counter offensive. Chance to stretch the legs of those western military vehicles and engage in some manoeuvre warfare, which Russia is poor at. Change the game to one Ukraine is good at - a brilliant move. How far will they go? How long will they stay? Will they try to keep control of some Russian territory?

Ukrainian Forces Make Major Gains Inside Russia On Day Three Of Kursk Invasion (Updated)

Ukraine is continuing to pour troops and equipment into Russia as it sees success in its bold but risky operation in Kursk.

www.twz.com

It contained this comment that caught my eye:
Russia is trying to beef up its forces in the area by convincing experienced drone operators from the Zaporizhia region to join the fight. They are being offered 220,000 rubles (about $2,500) per month to come to Kursk and will have drones provided for them, according to the Russian Thirteenth Telegram channel.

Firstly it suggest the drone operator are contractors, not military. Secondly the Drones are not networked in any substantial way. If they were you wouldn't have to move the operators.

Interesting that this happened so soon after the F-16s arrived in Ukraine. I wonder if part of the objective here is to bait the Russians into an air battle, to give their pilots some combat experience.

 

[Saint]

Interesting that this happened so soon after the F-16s arrived in Ukraine. I wonder if part of the objective here is to bait the Russians into an air battle, to give their pilots some combat experience.

Probably safer to execute with at least the threat of credible air-cover so that Russian choppers and planes don't make a mess of the armoured forces.

Russia might be reluctant or unable, at least at first, to mine the area to slow the offensive.

 

[CD Xbow]

Interesting that this happened so soon after the F-16s arrived in Ukraine. I wonder if part of the objective here is to bait the Russians into an air battle, to give their pilots some combat experience.

Yes, a few people have suggested a trap for the Russian air force. They have a few ways to do it. A hasty, poorly conceived air offensive by Russia may be one of the things they are after.

I suspect they hope to hold some part of the territory for a significant time. probably past the US election. They can potentially have a railway to supply them while at the same time denying the Russians use of a number trainlines used to supply the war effort. They would have to hold it at 'modest cost' while inflicting greater losses on the Russians. Interesting times. The Dems did the old switcheroo, now Ukraine.

 

[CD Xbow]

A large Ukraine attack on Lipetsk airbase has been reported. Details are sketchy. This is the home of the MIG 31 thay carry hypersonic missiles. Unclear if it was drones or missiles.

 

[Andre]

The Warzone has a long piece about the Ukrainian invasion of Russia. Certainly more than a raid, folks seem to be calling it a counter offensive. Chance to stretch the legs of those western military vehicles and engage in some manoeuvre warfare, which Russia is poor at. Change the game to one Ukraine is good at - a brilliant move. How far will they go? How long will they stay? Will they try to keep control of some Russian territory?

Ukrainian Forces Make Major Gains Inside Russia On Day Three Of Kursk Invasion (Updated)

Ukraine is continuing to pour troops and equipment into Russia as it sees success in its bold but risky operation in Kursk.

www.twz.com

It contained this comment that caught my eye:
Russia is trying to beef up its forces in the area by convincing experienced drone operators from the Zaporizhia region to join the fight. They are being offered 220,000 rubles (about $2,500) per month to come to Kursk and will have drones provided for them, according to the Russian Thirteenth Telegram channel.

Firstly it suggest the drone operator are contractors, not military. Secondly the Drones are not networked in any substantial way. If they were you wouldn't have to move the operators.

I'd put it between a raid and a counter offensive. Raid implies a quick in and out. I'd say they are going to keep moving around destroying anything that can support the Russian war effort - vehicles, supply depots, railways, bridges etc. Holding a few villages does nothing for them, except becoming a stationary target. If they can keep moving and destroying stuff Russia will need to move many times the Ukrainians numbers to, first stop them, and then have forces there in force enough to ensure they can't do it again.

The issue they face is the perennial issue of armies moving fast - logistics. How much fuel do they have? Can they get it from villages and towns passed through? What about food etc?

 

[CD Xbow]

I'd put it between a raid and a counter offensive. Raid implies a quick in and out. I'd say they are going to keep moving around destroying anything that can support the Russian war effort - vehicles, supply depots, railways, bridges etc. Holding a few villages does nothing for them, except become a stationary target. If they can keep moving and destroying stuff Russia will need to move many times the Ukrainians numbers to, first stop them, and then have forces there in force enough to ensure they can't do it again.

The issue they face is the perennial issue of armies moving fast - logistics. How much fuel do they have? Can they get it from villages and towns passed through? What about food etc?

Yes, an ongoing mobile 'raid'. it's a lot bigger group than would usually be involved in a raid. Modern warfare has many examples of special force types operating behind the lines but nothing with larger groups or armies. Have to go back to antiquity to see the pattern of armies operating behind the lines. Perhaps someone in Ukraine is a history buff.

I really think they will try to occupy some of the region for as long as the blood equations is in their favour.

Logistics can be solved once they know what they are going to occupy, then it's trains, choo, choo, choo.

 

[Cap]

Can be a ship surely?

 

[Zidane98]

Olympic Medals - 0

You're on to something. Russia may have 0 Olympic medals but look at the BRICS games talliy:





What a performance by Russia! Putin's a genius, 266 gold medals at the BRICS games shows just how good Russia is at sport.

 

[Zidane98]

This is developing quickly, 2 Russian battalions reportedly caught in a pincer maneuver:





Also, Ukraine is massing along Belgorod border and evacuating Russian citizens up to 30kms from the border itself.

 

[Zidane98]

Turn the gas on full-spigot, claim it all for Ukraine, fill your own storages, then sell it to Europe to fill their storage and collect the revenue yourself.

If Russia turn off the gas or demand payment, what exactly are they going to do? Turn it off again?

The rail line seems important. It's a lot easier to properly dismantle a rail line if you're occupying it than it is to destroy it from afar.

Mine, blow up bridges and culverts, destroy any levees and flood mitigation. It would take a month to do enough damage to take years to fix

Russia would probably whine about the gas transit contracts not being honored. They'd be welcome to pursue action in international courts although good luck finding a judge who would hear the case.

 

[DazalenkoUBewty]

All of a sudden Russia wishes it joined NATO.

 

[wannabejack]

russia’s defences in Ukraine are positioned for attacks by Ukraine forces from Ukraine.
No sure if it’s a silly idea or maybe it’s been mentioned already? What’s wrong with Ukraine getting a foothold in russia and attacking russian forces in Ukraine from russia?

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Zidane98]

4D chess

 

[Visions]

All of a sudden Russia wishes it joined NATO.

It would have been a better option than their CSTO alliance.

Not that they would try and ask for help anyway, as it would show how weak the Russian army is within its own borders and it would be embarrassing if the other CSTO members ignored the demand...

 

[Visions]

Lol at the Chechens tik tok brigade pretending they are an actual fighting force. Any time they have been anywhere near a battle, they have either run away or claimed traffic jams have stopped them from entering the fray. That tradition continues here.



As the Kremlin would say, Russian tanks heroically attacking the enemy in the opposite direction.



Some civilians finally calling out the Russian authorities and letting them know that the Ukrainian soldiers don't murder and rape civilians like the Russian ones do.



Russian morale on the Donbass front taking a dive, or it might be anger at the Kremlin itself?

 

[rjslcM]

Lol at the Chechens tik tok brigade pretending they are an actual fighting force. Any time they have been anywhere near a battle, they have either run away or claimed traffic jams have stopped them from entering the fray. That tradition continues here.



As the Kremlin would say, Russian tanks heroically attacking the enemy in the opposite direction.



Some civilians finally calling out the Russian authorities and letting them know that the Ukrainian soldiers don't murder and rape civilians like the Russian ones do.



Russian morale on the Donbass front taking a dive, or it might be anger at the Kremlin itself?

Thanks for resharing all of these. Much appreciated

 

[Visions]

The rail line seems important. It's a lot easier to properly dismantle a rail line if you're occupying it than it is to destroy it from afar.

Mine, blow up bridges and culverts, destroy any levees and flood mitigation. It would take a month to do enough damage to take years to fix

I think its more so that by capturing the rail line, it disrupts the logistics of the Russian army in the whole area.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainians actually conducted a second attack from the west from the Hlukiv area in a pincer towards Rylsk. Then if they could get further north towards Lgov, they would control the whole rail line infrastructure in the Kursk and Bryansk oblasts.

 

[Mofra]

The Warzone has a long piece about the Ukrainian invasion of Russia. Certainly more than a raid, folks seem to be calling it a counter offensive. Chance to stretch the legs of those western military vehicles and engage in some manoeuvre warfare, which Russia is poor at. Change the game to one Ukraine is good at - a brilliant move. How far will they go? How long will they stay? Will they try to keep control of some Russian territory?

Ukrainian Forces Make Major Gains Inside Russia On Day Three Of Kursk Invasion (Updated)

Ukraine is continuing to pour troops and equipment into Russia as it sees success in its bold but risky operation in Kursk.

www.twz.com

It contained this comment that caught my eye:
Russia is trying to beef up its forces in the area by convincing experienced drone operators from the Zaporizhia region to join the fight. They are being offered 220,000 rubles (about $2,500) per month to come to Kursk and will have drones provided for them, according to the Russian Thirteenth Telegram channel.

Firstly it suggest the drone operator are contractors, not military. Secondly the Drones are not networked in any substantial way. If they were you wouldn't have to move the operators.

Incredible that Ukraine have helicopters flying over Russian territory. It sounds like even the most rudimentary Russian surface to air capacity has been seriously degraded if those reports are correct.

I think most military watchers would have expected that ongoing Ukrainian resistance would have been under the cover of Russian air superiority, that has all but disappeared.

 

[Mofra]

russia’s defences in Ukraine are positioned for attacks by Ukraine forces from Ukraine.
No sure if it’s a silly idea or maybe it’s been mentioned already? What’s wrong with Ukraine getting a foothold in russia and attacking russian forces in Ukraine from russia?

Clearly the Ruskies haven't learned the lessons of the Maginot line.

 

[Millky95]

Incredible that Ukraine have helicopters flying over Russian territory. It sounds like even the most rudimentary Russian surface to air capacity has been seriously degraded if those reports are correct.

I think most military watchers would have expected that ongoing Ukrainian resistance would have been under the cover of Russian air superiority, that has all but disappeared.

Once Ukraine got ATACMS and started training on F16s, the amount of AA they started targeting sky rocketed.