Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[barreness]

Will you have a party with your comrades?

Only if you come?

Remember heels on the ground comrade found, heels in the sky western spy

But less people dying is generally uplifting, whatever the terms it'll be a good thing

 

[Cap]

How many children were killed?

Most likely bad targeting, sent off course by intercepts etc. Would be a little silly to burn a million(?) dollar missile on an out building and take out a couple of techs. The comparison to Israel is startling in this regard.

Shows Kiev doesn't have enough AA to stop all rockets, which I think was the point, push back the patriots from the front

That is truly more of a degenerate answer than I thought you'd answer with.

I can't imagine being so supportive of a country that aims at hospitals (they've managed to accidentally target 1,600 medical facilities and 200 Hospitals).

 

[Aussie in exile]

That is truly more of a degenerate answer than I thought you'd answer with.

I can't imagine being so supportive of a country that aims at hospitals (they've managed to accidentally target 1,600 medical facilities and 200 Hospitals).

Anybody who supports Russia's illeagle invasion of Ukraine is also supprting the attacks on hospitals and schools in Ukraine by Russia. Don't you agree Baroness?

 

[Cap]

Anybody who supports Russia's illeagle invasion of Ukraine is also supprting the attacks on hospitals and schools in Ukraine by Russia. Don't you agree Baroness?

Hence the down playing of all the genocidal behaviour.

Its very similar to Trump supporters who to be able to keep supporting him, dismiss all the shit hes done that would be a deal breaker for anyone else.

 

[Cap]

I underestimated the amount of medical facilities targeted.


Hopefully that's enough deaths there for you to be concerned barreness

 

[wannabejack]

I underestimated the amount of medical facilities targeted.


Hopefully that's enough deaths there for you to be concerned barreness

"Most likely bad targeting, sent off course by intercepts etc."
Only a country hell bent on genocide would target medical facilities!

 

[Mobbs]

A ferry hit not far from the Kerch Bridge, as reported originally by Russian sources. Question remain what hit it, and how.

 

[Mobbs]

Anti-aircraft fighters destroyed a Russian Su-25 in Donetsk region

Anti-aircraft gunners of the Ground Forces from the 110th separate mechanized brigade named after Colonel-General Mark Bezruchka shot down an enemy Su-25.

Each "mined" Russian aircraft means the enemy's plans are foiled, expensive equipment and personnel are lost, positions are saved, and most importantly, the lives of Ukrainians are saved.

 

[Visions]

How many children were killed?

Most likely bad targeting, sent off course by intercepts etc. Would be a little silly to burn a million(?) dollar missile on an out building and take out a couple of techs. The comparison to Israel is startling in this regard.

Shows Kiev doesn't have enough AA to stop all rockets, which I think was the point, push back the patriots from the front

Lol. Yeah, just like the Mariupol childrens and maternity hospital a few years back, the Kremenchuk shopping mall that was hit by a multi million dollar missile, the countless residential buildings, and lord knows how many more civilian targets that would have been hit if the multi million dollar missiles weren't intercepted by Ukrainian air defence.

Though I cant say that I'm surprised you are saying this as you are a mouthpiece who has drank the kool aid..

 

[Visions]

Russia getting the buffer zone they so desperately want with the Kharkiv offensive. Just in the wrong direction to planned.

 

[barreness]

That is truly more of a degenerate answer than I thought you'd answer with.

I can't imagine being so supportive of a country that aims at hospitals (they've managed to accidentally target 1,600 medical facilities and 200 Hospitals).

It's just atrocity propaganda, this particular one was clearly an error, if they wanted to hit the children's hospital they would have.

You shell a city or village you're gonna hit a bunch of medical facilities, yeh I saw that tweet, it's basically stuff along the frontline, not a surprise. Luckily civilians have somewhere to go in this case

 

[barreness]

Lol. Yeah, just like the Mariupol childrens and maternity hospital a few years back, the Kremenchuk shopping mall that was hit by a multi million dollar missile, the countless residential buildings, and lord knows how many more civilian targets that would have been hit if the multi million dollar missiles weren't intercepted by Ukrainian air defence.

Though I cant say that I'm surprised you are saying this as you are a mouthpiece who has drank the kool aid..

Mauriupol is a city that was essentially destroyed, at least most important infrastructure. 500k population, I'm sure you could throw in kindergartens and old folks home for more effect.

Kinda why war should be avoided, How many medical facilities were destroyed in Fallujah? a lot

 

[barreness]

I underestimated the amount of medical facilities targeted.


Hopefully that's enough deaths there for you to be concerned barreness

Yeh, I kinda like the Kiev independant, I don't doubt the numbers tbh

Medical facilities in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Sumy oblasts have sustained the most frequent damage.

Despite the significant number of facilities that have been damage, the Health Ministry reports that the a total of 885 medical facilities have either been fully or partially restored across the country.

The number of medical institutions damaged in occupied parts of Ukraine is not currently possible to determine and are not reflected in the totals, the Health Ministry added.

It's mainly places around front lines and previous battles, not surprising. Putin's Russia are terrible people, the childrens hospital was clearly atrocity propaganda. Not that there's anything to be mentioned here, all states do it

If you like Kiev independent read this article, has a few interviews from soldiers currently fighting
https://kyivindependent.com/with-krynky-lost-what-did-the-perilous-operation-accomplish/

 

[Cap]

Yeh, I kinda like the Kiev independant, I don't doubt the numbers tbh

Medical facilities in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Sumy oblasts have sustained the most frequent damage.

Despite the significant number of facilitiesy that have been damage, the Health Ministry reports that the a total of 885 medical facilities have either been fully or partially restored across the country.

The number of medical institutions damaged in occupied parts of Ukraine is not currently possible to determine and are not reflected in the totals, the Health Ministry added.

It's mainly places around front lines and previous battles, not surprising. Putin's Russia are terrible people, the childrens hospital was clearly atrocity propaganda. Not that there's anything to be mentioned here, all states do it

If you like Kiev independent read this article, has a few interviews from soldiers currently fighting
https://kyivindependent.com/with-krynky-lost-what-did-the-perilous-operation-accomplish/

A Ukrainian Hospital, One of Russia’s Favourite Targets. This Map Shows It

In response to the July 8th attack on the "Ohmatdyt" Children’s Hospital in Kyiv, we take a closer look at other times Russia has violated international law.

united24media.com

I don't think I'm ever going to understand your acceptance and support of Russia all because other states have done bad things.

But anyway, weve all heard lots from Ukrainian soliders. This would be over if Russia hadn't needlessly and unprovoked, attacked another sovereign state.


All deaths in this war are the responsibility of Putin.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Lol. Yeah, just like the Mariupol childrens and maternity hospital a few years back, the Kremenchuk shopping mall that was hit by a multi million dollar missile, the countless residential buildings, and lord knows how many more civilian targets that would have been hit if the multi million dollar missiles weren't intercepted by Ukrainian air defence.

Though I cant say that I'm surprised you are saying this as you are a mouthpiece who has drank the kool aid..

Barreness agrees with Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine, so he wouldn't have any problems with Russia targetting Ukraine hospitals and schools

 

[Cap]

Barreness agrees with Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine, so he wouldn't have any problems with Russia targetting Ukraine hospitals and schools

ultimately they don't believe in a Ukrainian sovereign state

So like the Russians, it's not genocide if its not real.

 

[Mobbs]

Yeh, I kinda like the Kiev independant, I don't doubt the numbers tbh

Medical facilities in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Sumy oblasts have sustained the most frequent damage.

Despite the significant number of facilities that have been damage, the Health Ministry reports that the a total of 885 medical facilities have either been fully or partially restored across the country.

The number of medical institutions damaged in occupied parts of Ukraine is not currently possible to determine and are not reflected in the totals, the Health Ministry added.

It's mainly places around front lines and previous battles, not surprising. Putin's Russia are terrible people, the childrens hospital was clearly atrocity propaganda. Not that there's anything to be mentioned here, all states do it

If you like Kiev independent read this article, has a few interviews from soldiers currently fighting
https://kyivindependent.com/with-krynky-lost-what-did-the-perilous-operation-accomplish/

What are you feeling is the significance of Krynki? For some reason I get a sense you think it was an outright failure.

 

[Zidane98]

Half of NATO states have been havens for kleptobux!

$20bil in the UK alone. London property ballooned with incoming grubby cash.

I was last in London circa 2018. Remember being surprised at just how many Russians were around.


I assume that's changed since the invasion.

 

[Saint]

I was last in London circa 2018. Remember being surprised at just how many Russians were around.


I assume that's changed since the invasion.

The really rich Russians are still there, and in France and Switzerland, but their kids have lived their whole lives there and don't have Russian accents any more.

If you've been to Vietnam or Thailand post-invasion, that's where the middle class Russians have escaped to, presumable to dodge the draft.

 

[barreness]

What are you feeling is the significance of Krynki? For some reason I get a sense you think it was an outright failure.

I don't think Ukraine can gain the east bank of the Dnieper in the south, don't think Russia can gain the west bank either tbf

 

[Mobbs]

I don't think Ukraine can gain the east bank of the Dnieper in the south, don't think Russia can gain the west bank either tbf

In the current picture, this is true. Obviously Ukraine did gain the left bank in a way but no longer. Russia did gain the west side too, 2 years ago. Also no longer. Eventually your statement by definition will likely need revision, but for now nobody would disagree.

But anyway I'll just treat this as though you answered the question I asked.

Spoiler: extensive personal thoughts summary on Krynki that may not interest anyone

Purposes of the bridgehead Ukraine held at Krynky could probably only be 1 of 3 : actually retaking territory and/or potentially expanding from there, distracting/stretching RF resources through another vector, or compromising RF supply lines. Cost analysis would always be summed up in lives spent.

1. I used to fantasise that Krynki was tied up in a push towards Crimea via Armiansk. But even though there were 2 or 3 test-the-waters landing events on Crimea, Krynki was irrelevant. The bridgehead was successful for 7 months in holding only the 4 riverbank positions like Krynki. If it was liberation move, it tapered out and failed.
2. I assume any bridgehead will stretch opposing resources but never heard a single word about RF being greatly restructured to counter it. Sure, it needed to be taken seriously, sure there were troops stationed there to oppose hte bridgehead, and sure RF made endless attempts to drive them out (probably the biggest sign that the bridgehead mattered), but no other part of the frontline attacks necessarily suffered due to Krynki.
3. It was commonly reported that both rail and road were within range of the Ukrainian forces, mainly due to Krynki. This is great, however I'm not sure I ever saw a report of a single actual attack on the resource supply lines in this area. But the one thing which Krynki did seem to bring within range, was the SU-25's who were launching the attacks on civilian infrastructure back across the Dnipro in and around Kherson. It's a while ago now but about 4 combat aircraft were taken out in this region within the same week. All within the same week? That's indicative of something changing to enable this susceptibility, and then something else changing to disable it. My belief is that some level of solidification at Krynki enabled it, and a change of tac by RF disabled it (eg not flying over left bank Kherson anymore).

Other possibilities for purposes include propaganda (meaning once reported, it looks good - a bridgehead over the Dnipro - its inspiring and good ammunition to show to allies), and this certainly is an element even if you don't seek such benefits.

I would say point 3 was a great success, but the others were not even close. However if it's all free, it's not a fail. So that's where cost analysis comes in.

Krynki resulted in losses estimated to be up to 1000 Ukrainian forces, reportedly important forces too. RF losses there were much higher but even if its only 3 times higher thats not a win, thats a break-even.

While Ukraine lost around 1000 over 7 months, Russia were losing 1000 per day around the entire front per day. So while I don't have the data to ratio it, Ukrainian losses there were not staggering, I do not think Ukraine would have performed this operation again had they had the time over, mostly based on the kind of tepid returns for expenditure.

Ukrainian sources speak more critically about this than I do, and they would know better than me. While it was probably a great idea and was successful in that the bridgehead was held until Ukraine itself decided to cancel it and did lead to imposing many RF losses, it is still deemed too expensive when compared to their own losses. Kyiv Independent writers suggest it didn't achieve enough, and add the curious argument that soldiers in a hotspot of a war reported that it was not a nice place to be as though that's shocking.

The one extra whisper is that it was a specific commander of Ukrainian forces - since sacked - whose bright idea it was to take positions on the left bank and hold them against RF troops stationed in the same district, even after losses began to mount. I've lost his name, I keep trying to say Sorok but I'm probably confusing it with a russian word I learnt early in my study of the language. He has a name kind of similar to this.

In Ukrainian circles, he developed a bad name for disregard for human lives on the battlefield - basically trying to play from the same playbook as the RF. One youtuber even referred to him as a "butcher". He had borderline a pro-meatwave mentality. His dismissal was celebrated in Ukrainian milblogger circles. It's believed that the losses of 1000 personnel over 7 to 9 months were considered too high for the operation.

It's kind of comforting to me that Ukraine would treat such a war-wide nominally small number of losses as utenable, and make changes actively based on the potential cost of human lives. Also, it's more likely the conditions of the bridgehead were more difficult than the actual toll - evacuation of wounded was extremely difficult for instance. The RF can only dream of a conflict where they can treat this rate of attrition as a big deal requiring review. Here Ukraine again show themselves to be focussed on including humane factors among their goals - regarding lives as of value and removing commanders who don't.

 

[Mobbs]

Good to see you around Saint , hadn't run into a post of yours for a little while! You always make me go typing cat.

The US doesn't "Have" almost all of Europe. Those are free states. It's what Russia and its supporters seem to fail to understand. Those states just want NATO to protect them from Russia who actually want puppet Governments.

Even Dugin doesn't say Europe is an extension of USA power-play. He writes that Russia must forcibly control all of Europe to create an equal dichotomy - so that with the added acquistion of European influence/strength, Russia is strong enough to act as a tempering measure against the hegemony of the USA. This is why he was documented advocating for Russian expansion through Europe. Europe is not American to Dugin, Europe is no-mans land that would bolster Russian superpower strength if they could get it. Europe is a grey area to Russia that their idealists suggest would be useful as a buffer zone.

Russia considers democracies as puppets, not because they are, but just because they're not puppets of Russia, they can't fathom how else a Government is run because to them democracy is a completely alien concept.

This allows me to repeat my statement months back that even the russian take on "nazism" is relevant here. Via Russian language, these nazi references weren't even relevant to "neo-nazism", or fascism or genocidal ex-librarianship. It's simply a translation of nationalism - and in Russia's case, the word nationalism actually refers to external nationalism (they have different words for internel nationalism which are more akin to patriotism and some theocratic references as well).

In Russia, a "nazi", is a person in another country, who holds a nationalistic ideal about their own country. Most Australians, especially when we're brandishing a boxing kangaroo flag at the mackegg on boxing day, is a nazi. Ukrainians believing Ukraine is a sovereign state with a right to remain a sovereign state, is a nazi. That's simply the translation. The same thing within Russia? A patriot. A defender of the motherland.

Then it became handy in state-owned media to conflate the two, and handy for western media to happily run with the conflation.

 

[Jello_B]

I think a big part of what is driving Putin is that when he first gained power, Russia was still number 2 in many ways. People still worried about them militarily, economically on a global level.

Throughout his reign, he's seen Russia slide down the totem pole to somewhere about as significant as Australia. A big supplier of raw materials to power growth, but the places that are growing are Asia, Europe and Nth America.

Talking about Russia is now about what a mess it is. They've got raw materials subsidising a military with no purpose other than expansion which is looked upon by the rest of the world with derision.

Putin's legacy is taking Russia from relevance to derision. He's just making some last desperate, pathetic plays at relevance which real growth power like India and China are taking advantage of. Putin is so lacking in foresight that he cant' fathom growth from within, and only expansionism. And Russia's the only country with this 100 year-out-dated thinking.

Everyone else is building resilient, service and tech based industries. Russia's doing some 1960's style warfare and resource-grabbing. Just a bit of cyber-crime too, to pretend they're down with the kids. But for every external crime undertaken by those hackers, there's probably 10 they're running on local soil.

What was Russia number two in when Putin took power? Nuclear arsenal (they may have been number one)? Not challenging the assertion, interested in data.

I think Putin recalibrates criteria to suit his personal view. He is strong (his outward position anyways) on the traditional family unit, unity and cohesion of society, certain religious doctrines and the like. In his mind Russia is superior to the west already.

 

[Jello_B]

Once the Ukraine and Russia war is over it will be in everyone’s interest to normalise relations quickly.
Can’t see Russia becoming the new North Korea, they are too important.

 

[Zidane98]