Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[wannabejack]

“This is the logic of transferring the war to enemy territory—so that their territory burns and is destroyed, not yours. So that their cities burn and their residents suffer, not yours. This is what the Kremlin has feared from the very beginning.”

 

[Mobbs]

Any rail supply routes though there could be disrupted?

Denys Davydov commented on rail, it does seem that rail connection could be a piece of the puzzle here.


He had this to say:

 

[Mobbs]

Sudzha residents complain about lack of emergency systems / evacuation plans. Per the Astra TG channel. [link]

"My parents are in Sudzha. They need to be evacuated. And I'm sitting here listening to music, damn it!"

Relatives have been calling the 112 emergency service for the second day in a row to find out about the evacuation of residents of the Kursk region who have not been in touch. However, the 112 service does not work, or works intermittently, as evidenced by numerous complaints, as well as a video recorded by one of the relatives.

In the footage, a woman tries to contact the 112 service and find out about the evacuation of her parents, who are in the shelled part of the Kursk region. The 112 service constantly switches to standby mode and then hangs up. When the woman began to ask the operator why this was happening, she was told:
"We can't wait that long."
"So I can sit and wait for 8 minutes, but you can't? My parents are in Kursk Oblast, Sudzha was ****ed there. There is no evacuation. But you can't wait?! Connect me with Kursk Oblast!"

However, the woman was again put on hold. At the time of the video recording, there had been no contact with her relatives for over five hours.
— Why does this service exist if it doesn’t work? — asks the woman in the video. — “Call 112 if you need to evacuate.” I call. So what?

In local chats, residents write that they, too, are unable to contact the 112 service. “Why is no one helping people?” one of the comments reads.

Yesterday, ASTRA called a resident of Sudzha A., who left the city on August 6 amid the shelling, without waiting for evacuation. “It’s a complete mess, there was no evacuation, they’re lying. People went themselves. We left, expecting to return the next day, because no one warned us about anything. In our underwear. Everything abandoned. There’s nothing. No one says anything. We meet Sudzhans on the streets of Kursk, and everyone is in shock, because the administration didn’t warn anyone about anything. Nothing was prepared,” ASTRA A. said.

According to Z-channels as of the morning of August 8, battles for Korenevo (30 km from the border with Ukraine) are already underway in the region. About 5 thousand people live in Korenevo. Meanwhile, Ukrainian publics write about 300 captured Russian servicemen.

 

[barreness]

Just gets better and better for your guys barreness


Do you believe a withdrawal from Ukranian territory by Russia is a fair trade for protection of Russia's remaining EU gas revenues?

You realise the pipelines already flow through Ukraine yeh? They could have blown them at any point, Ukraine doesn't because it's one of their few forms of income and the destination countries would absolutely crack the shits and withdraw support

 

[Nothing]

Second time that the Russians have abandoned the Kursk.

 

[Zidane98]

You realise the pipelines already flow through Ukraine yeh? They could have blown them at any point, Ukraine doesn't because it's one of their few forms of income and the destination countries would absolutely crack the shits and withdraw support

You do realise that Sudhza gas station is the only entry point for Russian gas to enter the Ukrainian gas system and not the other way round? Europe is moving away from Russian gas. Predicted to not need any from Russia by 2027.

This is tge reason for low prices.on Russian has. Theyve göt to send it to India / China at lowball prices to move it. Excess gas must be burnt away because of storage constraints


Ukraine controlling the last remaining source of decent gas income puts them in a strong position negotiation wise. Would be a disaster for Russia if Ukraine were to denazify it.

Black Sea grain is a much bigger earner. I hear Putin's threats to Ukraine's grain exports are also going perfectly.

 

[CD Xbow]

Ukraine may have bagged another Russian su 35. this time in the region of the Kursk counter attack. needs confirmation.

Ukraine claims Su-35 fighter shoot down in Kursk region

Several Ukrainian sources closely linked to the military have reported the loss of one of Russia's advanced Su-35 fighter jets in the Kursk region. The Telegram channel "Polkovnik GSh" hinted at the loss in its messages, and various Ukrainian monitoring groups have stated that Russia withdrew...

defence-blog.com

 

[rjslcM]

Any predictive models out there that can predict the likelihood of various outcomes? How long can various sides continue taking part in a war before their economy is in major trouble? Cost-benefit analyses? If not, anybody have some good guesses?

I know there are a lot of variables.

 

[Zidane98]

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Olympic Medals - 0

 

[barreness]

You do realise that Sudhza gas station is the only entry point for Russian gas to enter the Ukrainian gas system and not the other way round? Europe is moving away from Russian gas. Predicted to not need any from Russia by 2027.

This doesn't change my point at all

This is tge reason for low prices.on Russian has. Theyve göt to send it to India / China at lowball prices to move it. Excess gas must be burnt away because of storage constraints

Yes yes, I know they'll collapse, tomorrow probably

Ukraine controlling the last remaining source of decent gas income puts them in a strong position negotiation wise. Would be a disaster for Russia if Ukraine were to denazify it.

They don't control the supply, it's just a transport control hub, if they wanted to stop it they could have done it at any time. How does this change anything?

Black Sea grain is a much bigger earner. I hear Putin's threats to Ukraine's grain exports are also going perfectly.

Sure, shame most of the black sea is under Russian occupation

 

[Visions]

Sudzha residents complain about lack of emergency systems / evacuation plans. Per the Astra TG channel. [link]

"My parents are in Sudzha. They need to be evacuated. And I'm sitting here listening to music, damn it!"

Relatives have been calling the 112 emergency service for the second day in a row to find out about the evacuation of residents of the Kursk region who have not been in touch. However, the 112 service does not work, or works intermittently, as evidenced by numerous complaints, as well as a video recorded by one of the relatives.

In the footage, a woman tries to contact the 112 service and find out about the evacuation of her parents, who are in the shelled part of the Kursk region. The 112 service constantly switches to standby mode and then hangs up. When the woman began to ask the operator why this was happening, she was told:
"We can't wait that long."
"So I can sit and wait for 8 minutes, but you can't? My parents are in Kursk Oblast, Sudzha was ****ed there. There is no evacuation. But you can't wait?! Connect me with Kursk Oblast!"

However, the woman was again put on hold. At the time of the video recording, there had been no contact with her relatives for over five hours.
— Why does this service exist if it doesn’t work? — asks the woman in the video. — “Call 112 if you need to evacuate.” I call. So what?

In local chats, residents write that they, too, are unable to contact the 112 service. “Why is no one helping people?” one of the comments reads.

Yesterday, ASTRA called a resident of Sudzha A., who left the city on August 6 amid the shelling, without waiting for evacuation. “It’s a complete mess, there was no evacuation, they’re lying. People went themselves. We left, expecting to return the next day, because no one warned us about anything. In our underwear. Everything abandoned. There’s nothing. No one says anything. We meet Sudzhans on the streets of Kursk, and everyone is in shock, because the administration didn’t warn anyone about anything. Nothing was prepared,” ASTRA A. said.

According to Z-channels as of the morning of August 8, battles for Korenevo (30 km from the border with Ukraine) are already underway in the region. About 5 thousand people live in Korenevo. Meanwhile, Ukrainian publics write about 300 captured Russian servicemen.

Seems a few have made it out. They must be happy with how Putin is defending them and the rest of the country.



But not to worry. Putin has it all under control and will look after them and compensate them for losing their homes..

 

[Visions]

The longer this special military operation by Ukraine goes on, the more diminished Russia's reputation becomes (and it is already low after the last few years). There are some suggestions that Ukraine's aim is the capture of the Kursk NPP. Whatever it is, considering they are using regular UAF troops this time around instead of just the Russian Legion, its not going to be a smash and grab job, they are looking to stay a while.

The US wasn't made aware of this operation by Ukraine, which is good because the US would have probably talked about "escalation" and forced Ukraine not to not go through with it even though all if that talk is BS.



Ukraine keeps on progressing north, taking prisoners in its wake.



Russian propaganda tries to talk down the invasion.

 

[Visions]

This is what I like about Russia, they only breed the brightest.

For maximum effect maybe they should target the Kursk NPP....

How has it gone from 3 day war to nuking your own country?

Russian TV Guest Floats Russian Nuclear Strike on Own Kursk

A guest on Russian state TV has floated the idea of a nuclear strike on Russia's Kursk region amid a cross-border raid by Ukraine that has so far seen its forces occupy at least 11 settlements since Tuesday.

Darth having a say....

 

[Mobbs]

The longer this special military operation by Ukraine goes on, the more diminished Russia's reputation becomes (and it is already low after the last few years). There are some suggestions that Ukraine's aim is the capture of the Kursk NPP. Whatever it is, considering they are using regular UAF troops this time around instead of just the Russian Legion, its not going to be a smash and grab job, they are looking to stay a while.

The US wasn't made aware of this operation by Ukraine, which is good because the US would have probably talked about "escalation" and forced Ukraine not to not go through with it even though all if that talk is BS.



Ukraine keeps on progressing north, taking prisoners in its wake.



Russian propaganda tries to talk down the invasion.

That last post about the tanks destroyed on the trucks - it's been claimed that these were destroyed by RF friendly fire!

 

[Mobbs]

I wonder if people will be arrested for "spreading fakes" about the youtubes. But yeah, every time someone mentions a rally, out comes the Covid line. [ASTRA TG]

Moscow Denies Permission to Hold Rally Against YouTube Slowdown

The city authorities cited the unfavorable epidemiological situation and COVID restrictions as the reason for their refusal. They also warned that "if the said event is held, the organizers and participants may be held liable."

At the same time, today many Russians cannot play videos on the service at all.

 

[Millky95]

 

[Millky95]

For those talking about rail

 

[Zidane98]

This doesn't change my point at all

Yes yes, I know they'll collapse, tomorrow probably

They don't control the supply, it's just a transport control hub, if they wanted to stop it they could have done it at any time. How does this change anything?

Sure, shame most of the black sea is under Russian occupation

How is the Black Sea (Azov sea) fleet going these days comrade?

 

[Jello_B]

This is what I like about Russia, they only breed the brightest.

For maximum effect maybe they should target the Kursk NPP....

How has it gone from 3 day war to nuking your own country?



Darth having a say....

Gold

 

[Cap]

 

[Zidane98]

That last post about the tanks destroyed on the trucks - it's been claimed that these were destroyed by RF friendly fire!

Russia has been bombing Belgorod for years in attacks directed at Ukranian speakers.

 

[Zidane98]

This doesn't change my point at all

Correct, glad you agree that Russian gas revenue is now directly under the control of Ukraine. Doesn't take a genius to figure out what the next demand will be from Ukraine does it?

Yes yes, I know they'll collapse, tomorrow probably

They don't control the supply, it's just a transport control hub, if they wanted to stop it they could have done it at any time. How does this change anything?

Again, Ukraine now controls the entry of Russian gas into Ukranian gas transfer infrastructure.

Considering the low ball prices Adolf Putin has to sell it at to China / India it is in Russia's interests to do a deal here and keep revenues going for the remaining business they get from Europe which of course has been decimated directly due to Putin's failed invasion. This strategic failure by Putin is going to cost Russia trillions of dollars of income and has lead to European nations permanently weaning themselves off Russian gas. Think of how much better off you would be if Putin never invaded. You should be pissed.

Sure, shame most of the black sea is under Russian occupation

Sure it is. That's why Russia has evacuated Sevastopol. Interestingly enough Russia would have had unfettered access to Sevastopol if Putin could not be a fascist and respect Ukraine's sovereignty as he agreed himself directly in 2003.

Here's a reminder just how well it is going




Turkey also will not allow any Russian military ships into the Black Sea that are not normally based there. Ukraine doesn't even have a proper navy and it now freely controls the Black Sea up until Crimea. Grain shipments run freely after Putin's failed attempt to threaten them.

 

[Zidane98]

Gerasimov on suicide watch

 

[Saint]

Turn the gas on full-spigot, claim it all for Ukraine, fill your own storages, then sell it to Europe to fill their storage and collect the revenue yourself.

If Russia turn off the gas or demand payment, what exactly are they going to do? Turn it off again?

The rail line seems important. It's a lot easier to properly dismantle a rail line if you're occupying it than it is to destroy it from afar.

Mine, blow up bridges and culverts, destroy any levees and flood mitigation. It would take a month to do enough damage to take years to fix