List Mgmt. “It’s a form of tanking” the Richmond rebuild

[GC2015]

All these first rounders aren't guaranteed to be decent players either. If half are duds then they're stuffed. We won't know for half a decade of course but in the meantime we can enjoy seeing the spoons pile up in punt road.

Good balanced view of the road ahead. Nail this draft and Richmond will be on the way up in record time. Favourites for the coveted Pick 1 next year as well, that'll help.

Great point. Look at the first round picks for both Gold Coast and GWS when they entered the league:

• GC - David Swallow (1), Harley Bennell (2), Sam Day (3), Josh Caddy (7), Dion Prestia (9), Daniel Gorringe (10), Tom Lynch (11) & Seb Tape (13).
• GWS - Jonathan Patton (1), Stephen Congilio (2), Dom Tyson (3), Will Hoskin-Elliott (4), Matt Buntine (5), Nick Haynes (7), Adam Tomlinson (9), Liam Sumner (10), Toby Greene (11), Taylor Adams (13) & Devon Smith (14).

How many lived up to the hype? I would say Prestia + Lynch for the Suns and Coniglio + Greene for the Giants. The rest were mostly solid players or complete flops. I'd suggest more than half of the drafted players for both Gold Coast and GWS didn't live up to the hype, which shows how risky this approach is. They likely need to spend several years at the bottom (like GWS did) to mitigate the risk of too many draft misses screwing their rebuild.

 

[Freomaniac]

100%

AFL House cares for one thing and one thing only.


$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Equalisation and a fair even competition. Lol. Lip service at most.

Agreed

I don't mind Tassie and Canberra and Darwin having a team in the AFL.... But would they add to tv ratings or Foxtel subscribers?

 

[Wojcinski]

Richmond hold picks 1, 6, 10, 11, 18, 20, 23, 24

The idea would be that this years draft crop would help Richmond make a draft push when they mature, which is usually around 25 years of age.

If another team did the same thing with the same picks in 2017 with the idea that 2024 would be the year they'd mature enough to make the finals push, they'd have the following result:

1: Cam Rayner (140 games, 2024 AA squad)
6: Jaidyn Stephenson

2

Jaidyn Stephenson

Age

25

Ht

189cm

Wt

79kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

8.8

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

4.7

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.5

5star

D

11.0

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

4.3

3star

M

3.5

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

1.2

5star

D

12.6

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

4.6

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.4

5star

(122 games)
10: Lochie O'Brien

4

Lochie O'brien

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

9.3

4star

HB

3.9

3star

M

4.5

4star

T

1.3

3star

CL

0.7

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

9.8

4star

HB

3.2

3star

M

5.2

5star

T

1.4

4star

CL

1.0

3star

(66 games - delisted)
11: Aiden Bonar

16

Aiden Bonar

Age

25

Ht

188cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

4.8

2star

HB

5.3

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.8

5star

MG

101.0

2star

D

9.5

2star

K

4.0

1star

HB

5.5

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

3.5

4star

MG

101.0

2star

D

10.8

3star

K

5.2

2star

HB

5.6

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

4.2

5star

(34 games - delisted)
18: Brandon Starcevich

37

Brandon Starcevich

Age

25

Ht

187cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.2

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

2.6

2star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.0

4star

MG

185.3

3star

D

9.5

2star

K

7.3

3star

HB

2.3

2star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.1

3star

MG

187.9

3star

D

8.6

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

1.8

4star

MG

181.2

3star

(118 games)
20: Callum Coleman-Jones

21

Callum Coleman-jones

Age

25

Ht

200cm

Wt

104kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

5.0

5star

G

0.0

1star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

6.0

3star

HB

7.0

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

5.0

5star

G

0.0

1star

(31 games)
23: Will Walker

27

Will Walker

Age

25

Ht

186cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.8

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.3

4star

CL

0.8

3star

No current season stats available

D

9.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.3

4star

CL

0.8

3star

(6 games - delisted)
24: Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

30

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

(144 games, 2019 AA, 2023 B&F)

Rayner & Starc are good gets. TK obviously great but unlikely to be picked up in a situations like Richmonds.

I guess Tigers fans can be thankful this process wasn't started in 2017 lol

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Richmond hold picks 1, 6, 10, 11, 18, 20, 23, 24

The idea would be that this years draft crop would help Richmond make a draft push when they mature, which is usually around 25 years of age.

If another team did the same thing with the same picks in 2017 with the idea that 2024 would be the year they'd mature enough to make the finals push, they'd have the following result:

1: Cam Rayner (140 games, 2024 AA squad)
6: Jaidyn Stephenson (122 games)
10: Lochie O'Brien (66 games - delisted)
11: Aiden Bonar (34 games - delisted)
18: Brandon Starcevich (118 games)
20: Callum Coleman-Jones (31 games)
23: Will Walker (6 games - delisted)
24: Tim Kelly (144 games, 2019 AA, 2023 B&F)

Rayner & Starc are good gets. TK obviously great but unlikely to be picked up in a situations like Richmonds.

I guess Tigers fans can be thankful this process wasn't started in 2017 lol

The picks will likely land ultimately at 1, 7, 12, 13, 21, 25, 27, 28.

1. Cam Rayner
7. Hunter Clark
12. Darcy Fogarty
13. Jarrod Brander
21. Oscar Allen
25. Noah Balta
27. Brent Daniels
28. Sam Taylor

Of course Richmond won't take 5 Key Position players and there are totally different players in this draft. First & foremost Richmond will be after gun mids.

But if you asked any club(ironically probably bar Richmond, who have won 2 flags since so wouldn't have wanted to sacrifice established players at any cost) right now would they have liked to sacrifice a few established players and get 8 x top 30 picks averaging pick 17 in the 2017 draft, your hand would get bitten clean off for it. The Tigers will be hoping for and half expecting 2 x top 6 ranked players + another 2 x top 12 ranked players. 1-2 more useful role players as well will be viewed as house money.

There is no way of being certain what any drafted player will produce, but the Tiger's draft hand in a strong looking draft is enviable.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

All good and well to take this approach with everyone on board however pressure will build weekly if results and performances look "bad".

Massive pressure on the recruitment get it wrong and spend a decade or more in the abyss.

 

[Forward Press]

The picks will likely land ultimately at 1, 7, 12, 13, 21, 25, 27, 28.

1. Cam Rayner
7. Hunter Clark
12. Darcy Fogarty
13. Jarrod Brander
21. Oscar Allen
25. Noah Balta
27. Brent Daniels
28. Sam Taylor

Of course Richmond won't take 5 Key Position players and there are totally different players in this draft. First & foremost Richmond will be after gun mids.

But if you asked any club(ironically probably bar Richmond, who have won 2 flags since so wouldn't have wanted to sacrifice established players at any cost) right now would they have liked to sacrifice a few established players and get 8 x top 30 picks averaging pick 17 in the 2017 draft, your hand would get bitten clean off for it. The Tigers will be hoping for and half expecting 2 x top 6 ranked players + another 2 x top 12 ranked players. 1-2 more useful role players as well will be viewed as house money.

There is no way of being certain what any drafted player will produce, but the Tiger's draft hand in a strong looking draft is enviable.

Oh, you moved the draft picks to try and get a better result. The 2001 draft that everyone called a super draft and in time proved to be correct, as another reference point.

1. Luke Hodge (1. Luke Hodge)
6. Ashley Sampi (7. David Hale)
10. Sam Power (12. Brent Reilly)
11. Richard Cole (13. Nick Dal Santo)
18. Shane Harvey (21. Matt Maguire)
20. Daniel Elstone (25. Steven Armstrong)
23. Charlie Gardiner (27. Tom Davidson)
24. Steve Johnson (28. Mark Powell)

I bolded those that are likely to be considered worth their draft pick. It is below your expectation of 4 elite players from a draft hand like that.

Now obviously the professionalism of the draft has increased significantly since 2001 and there is always a chance Richmond nail all of them, but I wouldn't count on one single draft being the core of your next flag.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Oh, you moved the draft picks to try and get a better result. The 2001 draft that everyone called a super draft and in time proved to be correct, as another reference point.

1. Luke Hodge (1. Luke Hodge)
6. Ashley Sampi (7. David Hale)
10. Sam Power (12. Brent Reilly)
11. Richard Cole (13. Nick Dal Santo)
18. Shane Harvey (21. Matt Maguire)
20. Daniel Elstone (25. Steven Armstrong)
23. Charlie Gardiner (27. Tom Davidson)
24. Steve Johnson (28. Mark Powell)

I bolded those that are likely to be considered worth their draft pick. It is below your expectation of 4 elite players from a draft hand like that.

Now obviously the professionalism of the draft has increased significantly since 2001 and there is always a chance Richmond nail all of them, but I wouldn't count on one single draft being the core of your next flag.

I moved 7 of the draft picks to where they are likely to end up in this draft. It gives a better result. Richmond are not even likely to take all those picks in those positions, they will almost certainly trade picks live or pre-draft.

It doesn't matter much anyway, I am sure we would all agree that both above and below par results are perfectly possible from the picks. But in a draft the recruiters all seem to think has a lot stronger(in depth) top 30 than normal, 8 x top 30 picks represents more than 3 x the average draft hand, and if it is true the draft is strong, Richmond's hand could be worth around 3.5-4 years worth of drafting for an average club. It is pointless trying to pre-suppose how well they will draft with those picks and how much luck the players will have health wise etc. That is all to be told.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

All good and well to take this approach with everyone on board however pressure will build weekly if results and performances look "bad".

Massive pressure on the recruitment get it wrong and spend a decade or more in the abyss.

Pressure builds weekly upon poor results no matter what route you take. People tend to be more patient with teams they can see are rebuilding, not less.

The recruiters are under pressure, but that is like saying a team is under pressure when they make a Grand Final. This is the sort of pressure the recruiters will want. Sadly, not all footballers thrive under the pressure of Grand Finals, as you would well know. You could argue recruiters are under a lot more pressure when they don't have access to bulk potential high end talent anyway.

 

[Freomaniac]

Oh, you moved the draft picks to try and get a better result. The 2001 draft that everyone called a super draft and in time proved to be correct, as another reference point.

1. Luke Hodge (1. Luke Hodge)
6. Ashley Sampi (7. David Hale)
10. Sam Power (12. Brent Reilly)
11. Richard Cole (13. Nick Dal Santo)
18. Shane Harvey (21. Matt Maguire)
20. Daniel Elstone (25. Steven Armstrong)
23. Charlie Gardiner (27. Tom Davidson)
24. Steve Johnson (28. Mark Powell)

I bolded those that are likely to be considered worth their draft pick. It is below your expectation of 4 elite players from a draft hand like that.

Now obviously the professionalism of the draft has increased significantly since 2001 and there is always a chance Richmond nail all of them, but I wouldn't count on one single draft being the core of your next flag.

Regardless What year the draft is, Pick 6 for some reason is a cursed or unlucky pick

Ashley Sampi had talent. Should of played 200 to 250 games.

 

[PorcelainBus]

I had a quick look randomly at the 2004 and 2005 drafts and looked at what Richmond would have recruited at their picks if everything remained the same . . . . rebuilds are hard and things can easily go wrong . . .

 

[PorcelainBus]

I had a quick look randomly at the 2004 and 2005 drafts and looked at what Richmond would have recruited at their picks if everything remained the same . . . . rebuilds are hard and things can easily go wrong . . .

and 2006 . . .

 

[PorcelainBus]

and 2006 . . .

3 good picks in 2007

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I had a quick look randomly at the 2004 and 2005 drafts and looked at what Richmond would have recruited at their picks if everything remained the same . . . . rebuilds are hard and things can easily go wrong . . .

We just haven't seen an established club rebuilding with so many rd 1 picks in one draft before. So we simply don't know how difficult it is likely to be.

We have to remember also that if any obviously nice players are available in any of the next 3 x rookie drafts, 3 x pre-season drafts or 3 x mid-season drafts, Richmond should be in a strong position to snap them up.

And this goes along with likely at least 13 top 30 National Draft picks in the next 3 drafts, including likely 3 or 4 top 3 picks. Richmond is also situated to have 3 prime aged competent Taz players to trade to the new Taz team as well, Mansell, Banks, Campbell. So there could be some more useful picks coming in that way in the 2027 draft. Add some free agents.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Not much of a tanking effort when they won’t even be able to draft the best player with pick no 1.

Absolutely sucks ass

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Not much of a tanking effort when they won’t even be able to draft the best player with pick no 1.

Absolutely sucks ass

Lol, barely anyone drafts the best player at pick 1. It requires the player who turns out best to also be the highest rated as a 17yo.

But never despair, Richmond gets 8 attempts in the top 30 in the 2024 draft.

Geelong gets zero attempts in the top 40. Good luck with that.

 

[Chronz]

We just haven't seen an established club rebuilding with so many rd 1 picks in one draft before. So we simply don't know how difficult it is likely to be.

We have to remember also that if any obviously nice players are available in any of the next 3 x rookie drafts, 3 x pre-season drafts or 3 x mid-season drafts, Richmond should be in a strong position to snap them up.

And this goes along with likely at least 13 top 30 National Draft picks in the next 3 drafts, including likely 3 or 4 top 3 picks. Richmond is also situated to have 3 prime aged competent Taz players to trade to the new Taz team as well, Mansell, Banks, Campbell. So there could be some more useful picks coming in that way in the 2027 draft. Add some free agents.

If you can nail 3 picks and nab a few decent role players out of it then you'd be pretty happy. Luck, the unknown and development also play a part with how these kids will turn out.