Unofficial Preview 2020 Draft Discussion

On Topic · Oct 21, 2020

My position hasn't really changed over the last month or so on who we should take. Fortunately for us this year, the best available talent at our pick is likely to be a position we need to fill.

We need a bigger body in the midfield that can also do some damage up forward - Elijah Hollands (4)

We need another key position player, preferably in defense. - Cox (21)

With Henderson retiring and Smith one foot out the door we will need to top up on an outside mid - Conner Downie (40 + whatever required to match a bid).

I do hope we end up with another pick before the Downie bid comes though. Another high-end midfielder or medium forward would go very nicely with the above three picks.

Any picks after these will hopefully bring in a ruck, pressure forward or lockdown defender.

I trust that the club will make the right call and will hopefully work their magic to get us in the best position possible on draft night.

Wingnut19 · Oct 21, 2020

**** sake we pretty much have to trade our pick 21 now, with all the free agency comps, plus academy picks it will blow out to about pick 40! no way Downie lasts till then

RIOLINWITPUNCHS · Oct 21, 2020

This is not good for us regarding Saints and Crouch:

WatWouldCyrilDo · Oct 21, 2020

RIOLINWITPUNCHS said:
This is not good for us regarding Saints and Crouch:

View attachment 990874

That's BS - Brandon Ellis got ~$600k for 5 years from GCS, can Richmond ended up with a Band 3 Mid 2nd Round Pick.

Assuming the AFL doesn't pull a shifty, no way an extra $100k lands a Band 1.

La Vache · Oct 21, 2020

How does 9 years at $10 million dollars secure the same compo as 5 years $3.5 million

That's four more years and more than six million bucks.

With Franklin I understood the discrepancy in picks awarded, but those two contracts are so far apart in term and dollars that in no way can they be compared.

TylerDurden · Oct 21, 2020

RIOLINWITPUNCHS said:
This is not good for us regarding Saints and Crouch:

View attachment 990874

Surely not!!

Teamwork Talks · Oct 21, 2020

sven_inc said:
If I can be annoying - doing an ACL (without trauma) suggests that Holland's leg mechanics aren't ideal. Having said that, its a huge positive because he's already a really good athlete, so if the club are happy to take the risk and can correct his mechanics, there's the potential there to become an even better athelte.

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If it happened when he was running backwards that might not mean it is running mechanics.
Is that right?

Iceman! · Oct 21, 2020

TylerDurden said:
Surely not!!

Don't panic, articles were stating the Bombers were likely to net band 1 for the first day after he announced he wanted out. That quickly went away. They have no information they are guessing.

Noel Gallagher · Oct 21, 2020

Teamwork Talks said:
If it happened when he was running backwards that might not mean it is running mechanics.
Is that right?

Sorry but when I think of Hollands I think of Beau Muston. Muston really could have become the next big thing had it not been for his dodgy knees. After he did his third knee he had the turning circle of a Mack truck. We just don't have the luxury of a taking a punt on Hollands knee - we have to get this pick right. For me its still Phillips or DGB if he happens to slip through

sven_inc · Oct 21, 2020

Brishawk said:
I am sure everyone would appreciate your views. It looked to me like his knees roll in a bit under pressure and I thought maybe a large movement like that could lead to a rupture but obviously I lack your trained eye!

On the right track mate! Those broader restrictions and decreased control usually result in a knee that caves in when it shouldn't. Even traumatic ACLs are usually just the moment something exposes these issues as well. Far more controllable in theory than we currently think IMO!

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sven_inc · Oct 21, 2020

Teamwork Talks said:
If it happened when he was running backwards that might not mean it is running mechanics.
Is that right?

Not running mechanics per se, but the moment his ACL went was the moment his knee could no longer tolerate the way it was being loaded/had been loaded for how ever long prior (possibly years). Just to clarify, by "mechanics" I mean the way his legs move in a broader sense. He'd move similarly when he squats, runs, jumps, lands, twists, hops, rides a bike etc. Whether it was running forwards or backwards, stiff ankles are still stiff ankles and hip dysfunction is still hip dysfunction if that makes sense?

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I got the outside word · Oct 21, 2020

Noel Gallagher said:
Sorry but when I think of Hollands I think of Beau Muston

Beau Muston

Age
37

Ht

189cm

Wt
86kg

Pos.
Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D
9.6

2

K
4.6

2

HB
5.0

4

M
1.8

2

T
1.8

4

CL
1.0

3

No current season stats available

D
9.6

3

K
4.6

2

HB
5.0

4

M
1.8

2

T
1.8

4

CL
1.0

3

. Muston really could have become the next big thing had it not been for his dodgy knees. After he did his third knee he had the turning circle of a Mack truck. We just don't have the luxury of a taking a punt on Hollands knee - we have to get this pick right. For me its still Phillips or DGB if he happens to slip through

Try thinking about Joel Selwood.. Then throw some salt over your shoulder.

Wingnut19 · Oct 21, 2020

Even if Crows get pick 2 we still get one of Phillips, Hollands, Mcd, Thil, OR DGB. If they do get it then I bloody hope there is a bid for Campbell by them or North.

Teamwork Talks · Oct 21, 2020

sven_inc said:
Not running mechanics per se, but the moment his ACL went was the moment his knee could no longer tolerate the way it was being loaded/had been loaded for how ever long prior (possibly years). Just to clarify, by "mechanics" I mean the way his legs move in a broader sense. He'd move similarly when he squats, runs, jumps, lands, twists, hops, rides a bike etc. Whether it was running forwards or backwards, stiff ankles are still stiff ankles and hip dysfunction is still hip dysfunction if that makes sense?

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Yeah Sven, like a lot of your posts that makes a lot of sense.
So bottom line. Would you draft him at 4?

sven_inc · Oct 21, 2020

Teamwork Talks said:
Yeah Sven, like a lot of your posts that makes a lot of sense.
So bottom line. Would you draft him at 4?

I would 100%. Id also love to be the one charged with the responsibility to get him right

. For me, doing an ACL when younger is potentially better than older as those mechanical handbrakes aren't as hard to rectify and more can be done to prevent further issues. Depends on the person and the mecial team but if he's a really good player and could be that match winner we lack, id go all in.

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Noel Gallagher · Oct 21, 2020

I got the outside word said:
Try thinking about Joel Selwood

14

Joel Selwood

Age
36

Ht

183cm

Wt
84kg

Pos.
Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D
24.9

5

K
12.5

5

HB
12.5

5

M
3.6

4

T
5.3

5

CL
5.7

5

D
18.3

4

K
9.7

4

HB
8.6

4

M
2.4

3

T
4.0

5

CL
4.0

5

D
23.4

5

K
13.2

5

HB
10.2

5

M
3.6

4

T
4.8

5

CL
5.8

5

.. Then throw some salt over your shoulder.

Just to be clear - Joel Selwood DID NOT do his ACL as a junior. Not exactly sure what his knee injury was and has only been described as a "serious knee injury" At the time I remember it being meniscus damage or similiar. The thing with Selwood is that Geelong somehow sourced a second medical report which clearly stated that his knee injury WASN'T career threatening or serious. No one else saw this report so well played Geelong

I also point you towards Ryan Burton. Wasn't an ACL but he did break his leg and suffered significant ligament and joint damage. Burton can play but we now see him constantly breaking down with soft tissue injuries - if he is still playing AFL at age 30 I'll go he (probably one of the main reason's we shipped him off to Port with out first and second pick)

Teamwork Talks · Oct 21, 2020

sven_inc said:
I would 100%. Id also love to be the one charged with the responsibility to get him right . For me, doing an ACL when younger is potentially better than older as those mechanical handbrakes aren't as hard to rectify and more can be done to prevent further issues. Depends on the person and the mecial team but if he's a really good player and could be that match winner we lack, id go all in.

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Good enough for me Sven.
Let's get Hollands!

Judd2Sewell · Oct 21, 2020

RIOLINWITPUNCHS said:
This is not good for us regarding Saints and Crouch:

View attachment 990874

FFS

Billyc · Oct 21, 2020

Noel Gallagher said:
Just to be clear - Joel Selwood

14

Joel Selwood

Age
36

Ht

183cm

Wt
84kg

Pos.
Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D
24.9

5

K
12.5

5

HB
12.5

5

M
3.6

4

T
5.3

5

CL
5.7

5

D
18.3

4

K
9.7

4

HB
8.6

4

M
2.4

3

T
4.0

5

CL
4.0

5

D
23.4

5

K
13.2

5

HB
10.2

5

M
3.6

4

T
4.8

5

CL
5.8

5

DID NOT do his ACL as a junior. Not exactly sure what his knee injury was and has only been described as a "serious knee injury" At the time I remember it being meniscus damage or similiar. The thing with Selwood is that Geelong somehow sourced a second medical report which clearly stated that his knee injury WASN'T career threatening or serious. No one else saw this report so well played Geelong

I also point you towards Ryan Burton

3

Ryan Burton

Age
27

Ht

191cm

Wt
92kg

Pos.
Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D
18.5

5

K
12.1

4

HB
6.3

4

M
4.6

4

T
2.1

4

MG
277.3

4

D
16.8

4

K
12.3

5

HB
4.5

3

M
5.0

5

T
1.0

2

MG
277.3

4

D
13.4

4

K
9.0

4

HB
4.4

4

M
4.8

5

T
2.2

4

. Wasn't an ACL but he did break his leg and suffered significant ligament and joint damage. Burton can play but we now see him constantly breaking down with soft tissue injuries - if he is still playing AFL at age 30 I'll go he (probably one of the main reason's we shipped him off to Port with out first and second pick)

All true and valid points. But for every Muston or Morabito, there are also guys like Goddard, Petracca, Max Gawn etc who did knees very young and have gone on to be stars of the competition.

I think everyone agrees Hollands comes with greater risk than other players. But he may also come with more upside. Perhaps too much of a risk for picks 1 and 2. But pick 5 (what we will actually have) seems around the mark. Max King went #4 after doing ACL. It's early days but Saints would be feeling ecstatic with that risk so far.

Bugs1977 · Oct 21, 2020

Billyc said:
All true and valid points. But for every Muston or Morabito, there are also guys like Goddard, Petracca, Max Gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age
32

Ht

209cm

Wt
110kg

Pos.
Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D
14.1

4

K
7.4

3

HB
6.7

4

CL
2.8

4

HO
35.3

5

D
18.5

4

K
11.5

4

HB
7.0

4

CL
3.5

4

HO
29.2

5

D
8.4

3

K
3.6

2

HB
4.8

4

CL
1.0

3

HO
15.6

5

etc who did knees very young and have gone on to be stars of the competition.

I think everyone agrees Hollands comes with greater risk than other players. But he may also come with more upside. Perhaps too much of a risk for picks 1 and 2. But pick 5 (what we will actually have) seems around the mark. Max King

12

Max King

Age
24

Ht

202cm

Wt
100kg

Pos.
Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D
7.3

2

K
4.7

2

HB
2.6

2

M
2.7

3

T
0.7

3

G
1.4

5

D
7.3

2

K
4.7

2

HB
2.6

2

M
2.7

3

T
0.7

1

G
1.4

5

D
8.0

2

K
5.2

2

HB
2.8

3

M
2.8

3

T
0.6

3

G
1.4

5

went #4 after doing ACL. It's early days but Saints would be feeling ecstatic with that risk so far.

When you run, jump, pivot and turn like all AFL players do then I'd argue than any player is at risk every time they step onto the field in doing an ACL injury or worse. I expect our medical team to do their due diligence on Hollands if he is there for us to select. Same goes for Bruhn and other that have hurt their knees badly.

bEnJi · Oct 21, 2020

Putting the pieces together I feel we will be left with DGB at pick 5.

McDonald seems like he will go #1
JUH bid seems most likely by North which Dogs will match at 2
North then takes Hollands at 3
Swans need talls so take Thilthorpe to pair with academy kid Campbell at 4.

Leaving us with DGB at 5 which doesn't really feel me with much excitement. I have read conflicting reports on him and not sold. Do we throw a curve ball and look at Tanner Bruhn? Classy and skillful ball user. Phillips seems like a safer selection but similar to Mitchell/Worpel/Jaeger.

If we can trade up and get that pick 21 a bit higher we could then target Zach Reid or Nik Cox for our tall option over DGB.

Add Downie and some late round selections to the mix and its a nice little haul.

Bruhn
Reid/Cox
Downie

Slick · Oct 21, 2020

blackheart said:
Can you imagine picking the best available is 'boring.' I think whomever we pick up will be great - which is the benefit of having a high pick for once.

I meant that it's a boring statement, but it's fact. The Hawks will take best available, regardless of what position that player plays. They will not think about next years draft when drafting this year.

Slick · Oct 21, 2020

bEnJi said:
Putting the pieces together I feel we will be left with DGB at pick 5.

McDonald seems like he will go #1
JUH bid seems most likely by North which Dogs will match at 2
North then takes Hollands at 3
Swans need talls so take Thilthorpe to pair with academy kid Campbell at 4.

Leaving us with DGB at 5 which doesn't really feel me with much excitement. I have read conflicting reports on him and not sold. Do we throw a curve ball and look at Tanner Bruhn? Classy and skillful ball user. Phillips seems like a safer selection but similar to Mitchell/Worpel/Jaeger.

If we can trade up and get that pick 21 a bit higher we could then target Zach Reid or Nik Cox for our tall option over DGB.

Add Downie and some late round selections to the mix and its a nice little haul.

Bruhn
Reid/Cox
Downie

My personal opinion is that it'll go something like this: Crows take McDonald at 1, North bid on JUH and Dogs take him at 2, North take Thilthorpe at 3 to replace Brown, Swans take DGB at 4 (with Campbell and Gulden to come), Hawks take Hollands at 5.

BurnaHawks · Oct 21, 2020

Trade pick 4 and something of value to Adelade for pick 2. We could get McDonald...!

BIGHAWK23 · Oct 21, 2020

bEnJi said:
Putting the pieces together I feel we will be left with DGB at pick 5.

McDonald seems like he will go #1
JUH bid seems most likely by North which Dogs will match at 2
North then takes Hollands at 3
Swans need talls so take Thilthorpe to pair with academy kid Campbell at 4.

Leaving us with DGB at 5 which doesn't really feel me with much excitement. I have read conflicting reports on him and not sold. Do we throw a curve ball and look at Tanner Bruhn? Classy and skillful ball user. Phillips seems like a safer selection but similar to Mitchell/Worpel/Jaeger.

If we can trade up and get that pick 21 a bit higher we could then target Zach Reid or Nik Cox for our tall option over DGB.

Add Downie and some late round selections to the mix and its a nice little haul.

Bruhn
Reid/Cox
Downie

North want a tall desperately, and Swans want DGB as well, Hollands will be there

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