List Mgmt. 2021 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals

[Ticky009]

Hi everyone, for those interested some great links plus the Big Footy Draft, Trade & Free Agency twitter as per below:

 

[LukeParkerno1]

If we're picking up McCartin and hopefully Anderson gets to rookie draft, don't know if we'll be taking any others.

Then that is PLENTY of "mature" picks. Take the 3 picks on kids in the draft, it's a very successful strategy

 

[Bloods86]

Then that is PLENTY of "mature" picks. Take the 3 picks on kids in the draft, it's a very successful strategy

Well only McCartin is mature, Anderson is 17. It's a somewhat successful strategy based on years that kids have played. Anyway, it's likely there's 3 kids we rate that'll be available at our picks, I'm sure we've looked at those a bit older as well and wouldn't begrudge us using our 3rd pick on one.

 

[Bloods86]

Not if we already have players in mind for the draft, like Paddy McCartin or Anderson. Not saying it will happen, I just reckon if they really like someone in the WAFL/SANFL/VFL and they're more confident in that player than any of the 18 year old prospects left at one of our picks, I could see them going that route.

Further to this we already have a bunch of "mature agers" that played seniors in state leagues or elsewhere before drafting, most of which I'd take at pick 39 in a heartbeat. So with the exposure issues, some of these might move up the board from the rookie draft.

Rampe
Lloyd
Papley
Fox (if only we'd identified his best role earlier)
McLean (I'd probably use the pick)

 

[caesar88]

Then that is PLENTY of "mature" picks. Take the 3 picks on kids in the draft, it's a very successful strategy

It is the overriding strategy, yes, as clubs try to replenish their list with youth. It's not necessarily a "very successful" strategy as you suggest.

In the ten drafts between 2010 and 2019*, we drafted 36 "kids" (ie. draftees of that year's age minimum) in the national draft. 20 are still on AFL lists, and that is including guys like Stephens, Gould and Darcy Cameron, who haven't shown much and whose futures in the AFL are far from certain.) Furthermore, only 12 of them are still on our list.

If you look at the individual drafts, we average a success rate of just over 56% per draft with "kids" taken in the national draft. Not exactly "very successful". And we are one of the better clubs at recruiting in the competition.

The harsh truth is that history suggests at least one of the three "kids" you'd like us to draft won't make it. That likelihood increases when you consider Beatson's comments about the uncertainty surrounding this year's draft class. A way clubs may try to circumnavigate this chance of failure is by looking more closely at mature age prospects they've had more exposure to. I'm not saying it will happen, I'm saying there would be merit to that strategy.

* I didn't include the 2020 draft, as it's still too recent and we only took three who are still contracted.

 

[Ticky009]

Herald Sun Mock Draft has us taking...because a Magpie F/S who doesn't qualify for F/S isn't a flight risk at all....

The creators of mock drafts seem obsessed with replacing Dawson, not a word on Hewett and it seems they've all pencilled in McCartin for our backline.

18. Sydney (JP)
Darcy Wilmot (Northern Knights)

Defender, 182cm, 70kg

Jordan says: With Jordan Dawson

12

Jordan Dawson

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

D

15.7

4star

K

10.9

4star

HB

4.9

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

D

11.8

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

3.0

5star

CL

0.6

3star

moving to the Crows and Callum Mills

14

Callum Mills

Age

27

Ht

188cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

10.8

4star

HB

7.4

5star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.6

3star

D

18.4

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

6.9

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

3.4

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

17.0

5star

K

9.4

4star

HB

7.6

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

1.2

4star

now a permanent fixture in the midfield, Wilmot - and his line-breaking run - is a great fit here. The youngest player in the draft is clean and, defensively, as tough and competitive as they come.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Won’t be thrilled with Wilmot BUT if he’s best available go for it. Rather a few others personally

 

[Ticky009]

Cal Twomey's November Draft Rankings

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' November ranking (afl.com.au)

He's linked Swans as 'possible' for the following players:
Zac Taylor - mid
Tom Brown - defender
Josh Goater - mid

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Do not think a small defender is our priority, still he is very young and might develop other positional tricks.

 

[RUNVS]

Herald Sun Mock Draft has us taking...because a Magpie F/S who doesn't qualify for F/S isn't a flight risk at all....

The creators of mock drafts seem obsessed with replacing Dawson, not a word on Hewett and it seems they've all pencilled in McCartin for our backline.

18. Sydney (JP)
Darcy Wilmot (Northern Knights)

Defender, 182cm, 70kg

Jordan says: With Jordan Dawson moving to the Crows and Callum Mills now a permanent fixture in the midfield, Wilmot - and his line-breaking run - is a great fit here. The youngest player in the draft is clean and, defensively, as tough and competitive as they come.

Dawson is hard to replace but his position was not exactly easily defined. It isn't like we now have a Dawson sized hole in our team that no other player could possibly play in.

 

[hairy biker]

I can confirm we are taking Zac Taylor with our first pick.

I've been emailing Kinnear Beatson in the last 3 or so weeks telling him we should take Taylor.
(Just a couple in the morning and a couple in the afternoon. I haven't sent him any in the evening as I didn't want to annoy him).

He hadn't responded, but today he finally replied.
To quote;
Stop sending me ****ing emails.

Clearly the only reason he would have sent such an email is if he had finally agreed with me.

So Zac Taylor come on down.

 

[Ticky009]

Important Dates for this week:

Monday 15 November by 5.00pm – AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (2) Closes
Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period Closes –Selections Only

Wednesday 17 November by 3.00pm – Delisted Primary List Draft Nomination Form Lodgement; Non–Retained Rookie Players NAB AFL Draft Nomination Form Lodgement; Players Not Registered or Played for 3 years Rookie List Form lodgement; International Players Inclusion on Rookie List Form Lodgement; AFL Father-Son Bidding Nominations lodged with AFL
NAB AFL Draft Nominations close

 

[Bloods86]

Herald Sun Mock Draft has us taking...because a Magpie F/S who doesn't qualify for F/S isn't a flight risk at all....

The creators of mock drafts seem obsessed with replacing Dawson, not a word on Hewett and it seems they've all pencilled in McCartin for our backline.

18. Sydney (JP)
Darcy Wilmot (Northern Knights)

Defender, 182cm, 70kg

Jordan says: With Jordan Dawson

12

Jordan Dawson

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

D

15.7

4star

K

10.9

4star

HB

4.9

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

D

11.8

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

3.0

5star

CL

0.6

3star

moving to the Crows and Callum Mills

14

Callum Mills

Age

27

Ht

188cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

10.8

4star

HB

7.4

5star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.6

3star

D

18.4

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

6.9

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

3.4

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

17.0

5star

K

9.4

4star

HB

7.6

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

1.2

4star

now a permanent fixture in the midfield, Wilmot - and his line-breaking run - is a great fit here. The youngest player in the draft is clean and, defensively, as tough and competitive as they come.

Would be pretty happy with Wilmot. Would start off as a half back, but hopefully a winger in time. Can also do a defensive role down back which is handy with Cunners and Fox in their late 20s. Sounds like he's pretty vocal and good leadership potential too. We have Campbell, Stephens, Gulden, Heeney who could all play on a wing (if JMac, Blakey and Lloyd stay back), but they all have potential or are proven elsewhere too (inside or up forward), so a future winger is a good pickup. Out of the likely non-KPDs available at our first, he's who I'd pick, albeit on limited knowledge really.

 

[the hypnotoad]

I can confirm we are taking Zac Taylor with our first pick.

I've been emailing Kinnear Beatson in the last 3 or so weeks telling him we should take Taylor.
(Just a couple in the morning and a couple in the afternoon. I haven't sent him any in the evening as I didn't want to annoy him).

He hadn't responded, but today he finally replied.
To quote;
Stop sending me ******* emails.

Clearly the only reason he would have sent such an email is if he had finally agreed with me.

So Zac Taylor come on down.

yeah, that's pretty much what happens with politicians, too ... you have to be persistent but eventually they see sense ... ahhhhh hahahahahahahahahahahaha dear oh dear, i almost finished that without the hysteria kicking in

 

[dosser]

I can confirm we are taking Zac Taylor with our first pick.

I've been emailing Kinnear Beatson in the last 3 or so weeks telling him we should take Taylor.
(Just a couple in the morning and a couple in the afternoon. I haven't sent him any in the evening as I didn't want to annoy him).

He hadn't responded, but today he finally replied.
To quote;
Stop sending me ******* emails.

Clearly the only reason he would have sent such an email is if he had finally agreed with me.

So Zac Taylor come on down.

You might be onto something here. I think that, on draft night, when it comes to our turn to pick, the Swans should have a few player names on the screen with a toll phone number assigned to each. In that way, we can call the number to vote for our favourite option as many times as we like in the time remaining to choose. At the end of the night all calls go into a draw and the winner receives an evening of in-home dining for them and their partner, with their swans player of choice doing the cooking. And the money raised can be donated to the 'Move Norf to Hobart' lobby group. Winners all round, and we get the player we want!

 

[anotherletdown]

Dawson is hard to replace but his position was not exactly easily defined. It isn't like we now have a Dawson sized hole in our team that no other player could possibly play in.

Agree. They all keep saying Wilmot, Chesser, Taylor, Sinn but the closest fit is Howes... and I have no idea why they don't see it. Dawson was essentially a utility by the time he left us

 

[hairy biker]

Herald Sun Mock Draft has us taking...because a Magpie F/S who doesn't qualify for F/S isn't a flight risk at all....

The creators of mock drafts seem obsessed with replacing Dawson, not a word on Hewett and it seems they've all pencilled in McCartin for our backline.

18. Sydney (JP)
Darcy Wilmot (Northern Knights)

Defender, 182cm, 70kg

Jordan says: With Jordan Dawson moving to the Crows and Callum Mills now a permanent fixture in the midfield, Wilmot - and his line-breaking run - is a great fit here. The youngest player in the draft is clean and, defensively, as tough and competitive as they come.

I think that's the 3rd time they've put the same thing up, just in a marginally different format and a different 'date stamp'.

They did however in a different article also talk about the session the Vic draft hopefuls did yesterday.
With relation to Wilmot;

The one player you could hear throughout the entire session, Wilmot was incredibly vocal and his skills on the run were just as good. Asked about how he viewed his season, he responded by reflecting on how his teams - Northern Knights and Vic Metro – performed, epitomising his team-first approach. Weighing a slender 70kg at the beginning of the year, the 17-year-old weighed in at 76kg on Monday.

Certainly gives off the vibe of a leader.
Although very unlikely to be there at our second pick after we take Zac Taylor first up.

 

[Bloods86]

Agree. They all keep saying Wilmot, Chesser, Taylor, Sinn but the closest fit is Howes... and I have no idea why they don't see it. Dawson was essentially a utility by the time he left us

I think they're factoring in ratings too, as well as some thinking we're trying to replace Dawson. I'm fine with a winger, just don't think we necessarily need a 190cm+ one who started off as a forward, to really hammer home the likeness, and there's others who seem to be more hyped at least (just more half back / wing types).

 

[anotherletdown]

I can confirm we are taking Zac Taylor with our first pick.

I've been emailing Kinnear Beatson in the last 3 or so weeks telling him we should take Taylor.
(Just a couple in the morning and a couple in the afternoon. I haven't sent him any in the evening as I didn't want to annoy him).

He hadn't responded, but today he finally replied.
To quote;
Stop sending me ******* emails.

Clearly the only reason he would have sent such an email is if he had finally agreed with me.

So Zac Taylor come on down.

How many emails was that in total? Just wondering where the effort/value threshold is.... there's some good options at our second.

Asking for a friend...

 

[Kirkswan]

I am guitar leaning in my likes of any song. Bluesfest I recommend you get to at some stage in your life. It changes you.

Bluesfest 05 & 07 - Early bird 5 day pass... seriously some of the best days of my life!

 

[anotherletdown]

I think that's the 3rd time they've put the same thing up, just in a marginally different format and a different 'date stamp'.

They did however in a different article also talk about the session the Vic draft hopefuls did yesterday.
With relation to Wilmot;


Certainly gives off the vibe of a leader.
Although very unlikely to be there at our second pick after we take Zac Taylor first up.

Wilmot before Taylor... and not by a small distance.

 

[rustycrate]

Bluesfest 05 & 07 - Early bird 5 day pass... seriously some of the best days of my life!

If you haven't been you will never understand the vibe of the place and it impossible to see everything.

 

[hairy biker]

How many emails was that in total? Just wondering where the effort/value threshold is.... there's some good options at our second.

Asking for a friend...

4 per day, 7 days a week (no slacking off for KB or myself), 23 days = 644

I did also add a reminder for him that the draft was getting closer;


I reckon after 644 views, he'd have it down word perfect.

 

[anotherletdown]

4 per day, 7 days a week (no slacking off for KB or myself), 23 days = 644

I did also add a reminder for him that the draft was getting closer;


I reckon after 644 views, he'd have it down word perfect.

644! Damn... I was hoping the 20% academy discount might apply in this instance

 

[Kiama Chris]

Twomey has finally listed to ol’ DQ and put Sheldrick on his phantom draft.

Not happy with the inference he might go to Geelong though.

Doerre reckons he's the best inside mid in

Dawson is hard to replace but his position was not exactly easily defined. It isn't like we now have a Dawson sized hole in our team that no other player could possibly play in.

Exactly right. You never precisely "replace" a player who leaves/retires. For example: Campbell's kicking and Blakey's marking potentially add up to the same contribution. Getting the structures right to enable that sort of thing to happen is one of the real tricks of coaching.
Note that when Bud was absent Rd1 this season the combination of Reid, McDonald and McLean looked damned good (for a while).

 

[sataris]

Doerre reckons he's the best inside mid in

Exactly right. You never precisely "replace" a player who leaves/retires. For example: Campbell's kicking and Blakey's marking potentially add up to the same contribution. Getting the structures right to enable that sort of thing to happen is one of the real tricks of coaching.
Note that when Bud was absent Rd1 this season the combination of Reid, McDonald and McLean looked damned good (for a while).

Very much reminded of the scene in `Moneyball` where they're trying to replace their star player, but instead trying to replace his `output`.