List Mgmt. 2022 List Management and trading thread

[Scorpus]

I saw this format on the West Coast board and thought it might help understand our current list position

 

[Jeffcrowe]

We need to win 4 or 5 more games next year and show that our skills and cohesion has improved this off-season or else It should be curtains for him. Despite what the club says 4 years with no significant advances is long enough. Year 5 and 6 with Nicks still in charge and no finals appearances. Yuck.

I think 10 wins next year is a pass given where list is at , to go from bottom to 10 wins will be a good progress … it’s what happens thereafter that gets interesting , as senior players start to retire like Tex etc we need to continue to bring in free agents and trades

Development of our top end talent like Thilthorpe Rachele and Rankine also crucial

 

[Soggy2112]

Agree, except I believe Laird & Sloane are our highest paid 2 players.

That’s my point haha, they’re also two of our most experienced players.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

It's not "bum covering" - it's called being realistic, as distinct from delusional expectations that we'll win 12-13 games next year.

Exactly … given our list profile and fact that Tex and Laird are our only real star senior senior players it’s unrealistic to jump to 13 wins

Look at collingwood - off top of head Howe , Pendlebury , Crisp , Sidebottom , Moore , Elliot ( may have missed a few ) are all star experienced veterans

We don’t have that so can’t see a similar run at all , be happy it we can do it slow and steady next 2 years

 

[crow2crow]

I think 10 wins next year is a pass given where list is at , to go from bottom to 10 wins will be a good progress … it’s what happens thereafter that gets interesting , as senior players start to retire like Tex etc we need to continue to bring in free agents and trades

Development of our top end talent like Thilthorpe Rachele and Rankine also crucial

11 is the pass for me
12 and therefore finals most likely is above but if nicks doesnt get that i dont think he survives into 2024

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Nah .....makes our FWD line too Fog focussed (after Tex retires) ....we need two genuine marking talls min, unless you think Himmelberg steps up "consistently"

COLL showed this year, they can manage & flourish with a 2nd string Ruckman over a $1M Grundy

Nah I’m thinking Thilthorpe has a dual role

Don’t see him pure ruck or pure forward

I know it’s not something we’ve had for a while but a see a flexible team with ruck/ forward options

Not sure who fits the other role yet , things will emerge in time and it could take years to play out

 

[1970crow]

According to the club we have vastly improved this year, so with another preseason and another A grader coming into the side, why do you think at least 4 more wins next season is not a realistic target if we are on the the trajectory the club alleges?

Nix turned a 12th placed group into spooners and hasn't managed to catch up to what he took over in 3 years. He'll need to be travelling ok half way through next year to keep his job. Which unfortunately means that we'll be even more geared towards settling on a 22 and riding continuity for as long as possible. Not that there's a lot of room to move there, we've never not prioritised the 4 points ahead of everything else.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

11 is the pass for me
12 and therefore finals most likely is above but if nicks doesnt get that i dont think he survives into 2024

Haven’t got the list age or talent in the experienced players department to get to 12 wins IMO

I think Nicks will be judged on wins partly but also player development and game style which needs to evolve and improve

 

[Southerntakeover]

With the lack of elite midfield talent, fans shouldn't be wanting our rebuild to end now.

Nicks coaching is a distinct problem. He doesnt really show any signs of being someone who you would succeed with in future. Little game day nous.

 

[Vader]

11 is the pass for me
12 and therefore finals most likely is above but if nicks doesnt get that i dont think he survives into 2024

11 is optimistic
12 is completely unrealistic

Nicks is in no trouble at all if we don't make finals in 2023.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Nix turned a 12th placed group into spooners and hasn't managed to catch up to what he took over in 3 years. He'll need to be travelling ok half way through next year to keep his job. Which unfortunately means that we'll be even more geared towards settling on a 22 and riding continuity for as long as possible. Not that there's a lot of room to move there, we've never not prioritised the 4 points ahead of everything else.

To be fair he inherited spooners

The dills that were involved in the crows camp etc are the ones that decimated the club to the bottom wrung

 

[Jeffcrowe]

not certain that raw stats tell the story there though. Posters will look at our contested numbers in isolation as if it's meaningful. Not saying arguments can't be progressed on raw stats, but deeper analysis is generally required. As an example, we were 3rd in the league for clearances per game. 3rd best clearance team some would say. But they'd be totally wrong. That stat ignores the key metric which is number of available clearances. Add that in and we're 12th for clearances per game differential. Then when you take that into account and factor in our shallow midfield rotation compared to almost all clubs, the individual stats are likely to be skewed due to availability as well.

Another interesting one, not as sexy as clearances, is that we rank 4th for least marks conceded to opp per game. But we rank 16th for marks per game differential. Our game style reduces the number available to opponents but we're still being heavily beaten in that stat.

Gut feel is that good team and individual contest/clearance stats may very well be fools gold. And that's before we even bother with quality differential which we know we're at or near the bottom of.

I know for a fact opposition clubs talk about us in high regard re contest and also pressure and think we are a hard team to get on top of

Swans were particularly impressed

Of course we lack the attacking flair and talent to capitalise at times hence I’m a big fan of the Rankine move

There’s definitely a difference at being good in contest and what happens thereafter and I think that’s the bit that needs most improvement

 

[1970crow]

I think 10 wins next year is a pass given where list is at , to go from bottom to 10 wins will be a good progress … it’s what happens thereafter that gets interesting , as senior players start to retire like Tex etc we need to continue to bring in free agents and trades

Development of our top end talent like Thilthorpe Rachele and Rankine also crucial

He would have actually taken us from 10 wins to 10 wins. The reference point is the wins for the season that preceded him.

 

[1970crow]

To be fair he inherited spooners

The dills that were involved in the crows camp etc are the ones that decimated the club to the bottom wrung

then you'd think they'd improve on the 10 wins the year before after excising the dills that decimated the club. Instead we went backwards under him.

 

[1970crow]

I know for a fact opposition clubs talk about us in high regard re contest and also pressure and think we are a hard team to get on top of

Swans were particularly impressed

Of course we lack the attacking flair and talent to capitalise at times hence I’m a big fan of the Rankine move

There’s definitely a difference at being good in contest and what happens thereafter and I think that’s the bit that needs most improvement

i know for a fact that the top side in ripping form having pounded the bottom side will bang on about how hard they were to get on top of etc.

 

[crow2crow]

11 is optimistic
12 is completely unrealistic

Nicks is in no trouble at all if we don't make finals in 2023.

disagree but will depend on many factors

• the final trades done
• injuries
• our draw

 

[1990crow]

disagree but will depend on many factors

• the final trades done
• injuries
• our draw

Come on. There's very little chance the crows play finals next year, they're too young and don't have the midfield to challenge top 8 sides.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

then you'd think they'd improve on the 10 wins the year before after excusing the dills that decimated the club. Instead we went backwards under him.

You’re not taking into account personel

Nicks first year was first year the list had been cleaned out eg Greenwood Keath etc etc

Pyke years post GF were all about going back to the well from a list and team perspective (list can different to team too )

Nicks had guys like Davis , McAsey and Crocker running around in round 1

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Come on. There's very little chance the crows play finals next year, they're too young and don't have the midfield to challenge top 8 sides.

Yep - too young , not enough talent/ number of experienced >28 yo’s

Potentially not enough talent of young guys yet and definitely a lack of midfield talent / depth

 

[Vader]

disagree but will depend on many factors

• the final trades done
• injuries
• our draw

It really doesn't.

We had an incredibly easy draw this year, including return games against North (18th) and the Weagles (17th), which accounted for 4 of our 8 wins for the season. It's pretty much impossible to conceive of a draw which helps us win more games than it did this year. If anything, our draw next year is likely to be harder than it was in 2022.

Similarly, we had a pretty decent run with injuries this year, and it's hard to see how that could improve (and thus be a factor in winning more games) in 2023. If anything, we're likely to have more injuries in 2022 than we did in 2023, making it harder to win games.

Trading will (hopefully) improve our team, but not to the extent that winning 50% more games (i.e. 12) is anything more than a pipe dream.

10 wins is what we should be aiming for next year, and nobody should be disappointed if we "only" win 9 - 11 is overly optimistic, and there's virtually no chance of jagging 12.

 

[GROTTO]

Come on. There's very little chance the crows play finals next year, they're too young and don't have the midfield to challenge top 8 sides.

Not only do we need elite midfield talent, we need to bat deep in this area.

Unless we snag someone through trade, we are another ~3 years conservatively away from playing Finals.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Not only do we need elite midfield talent, we need to bat deep in this area.

Unless we snag someone through trade, we are another ~3 years conservatively away from playing Finals.

Agree

I’d take 3 years in a heartbeat

Don’t reckon we can do it , but then didn’t think Dawson abd Rankine would land in our lap either so who knows what future holds

 

[GROTTO]

Agree

I’d take 3 years in a heartbeat

Don’t reckon we can do it , but then didn’t think Dawson abd Rankine would land in our lap either so who knows what future holds

When Kane McGoodwin mentioned the possibility of Hopper and Phillipou coming to us this year potentially, it does change my view of us making finals to maybe in 2 years time.

Couple that with the natural and hopefully improve trajectory of players like Berry and Schoenberg, with Fog and TT as threats up forward. It does have potential to be earlier than my predictions.

 

[GROTTO]

Yep - too young , not enough talent/ number of experienced >28 yo’s

Potentially not enough talent of young guys yet and definitely a lack of midfield talent / depth

100%. You need elite talent and depth. We have neither.

 

[1970crow]

Come on. There's very little chance the crows play finals next year, they're too young and don't have the midfield to challenge top 8 sides.

the big issue is that we've not addressed our lack of potentially elite mids and we're hell bent on getting as close to the 8 as possible still. So we now go forward with the same workmanlike midfield, improvement elsewhere around the ground but ultimately we've rebuilt just to contend for the bottom of the 8.

 

[1970crow]

You’re not taking into account personel

Nicks first year was first year the list had been cleaned out eg Greenwood Keath etc etc

Pyke years post GF were all about going back to the well from a list and team perspective (list can different to team too )

Nicks had guys like Davis , McAsey and Crocker running around in round 1

Who are the etc etc that follow Greenwood and Keath in that sentence? You know who they are but you dishonestly didn't name them because they kill your argument. Dougie, Sauce, CEY and JJ are the etc etc. So we lost a part time mid that had played SANFL, a 3rd defensive tall, a key forward that was well on the outer playing 11 only games for the year. And you reckon those player losses with the toxic element removed results in the plunge that we experienced? Only in a fantasy land.