List Mgmt. 2022 Trade Thread - Part II

[lewdogs]

Looks to me like the club is trying to replenish the youth while remaining competitive. Thus targeting free agents but avoiding players that require a trade. Started last year with a great group of kids, albeit with a bit of luck.

At the moment we have the 11th ranked draft hand, it will be interesting to see where we rank at the end of the trade period.

 

[CanadianSaint]

Looks to me like the club is trying to replenish the youth while remaining competitive. Thus targeting free agents but avoiding players that require a trade. Started last year with a great group of kids, albeit with a bit of luck.

At the moment we have the 11th ranked draft hand, it will be interesting to see where we rank at the end of the trade period.

I think this is indeed the idea. And I'm a fan, we need this stuff done now otherwise we fall off a cliff. People on this board constantly complain about the club not being proactive, I think thats what we are doing. We tried to fast track, didn't have the talent, now we take a small step back and go forward from there.

One thing, it's elite talent we lack, not soldiers. Our draft hand must increase in this space, a very high pick will help enormously!

Regarding the luck - considering the bulldogs and others have got for free with the father/son and other things - we were due...

 

[The Boar]

Looks to me like the club is trying to replenish the youth while remaining competitive. Thus targeting free agents but avoiding players that require a trade. Started last year with a great group of kids, albeit with a bit of luck.

At the moment we have the 11th ranked draft hand, it will be interesting to see where we rank at the end of the trade period.

It's possible with our list because our oldest key contributors are 26-28 (not 30+ as at Geelong).

They can carry the load for 3 years whilst we dump in draft talent around them. Occasional FA or State League player to plug gaps in the meantime

On Pixel 6a using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Yawkey way]

The problem with North wanting Hill is that they don't really have the draft picks to get the Hill deal done - I would fully expect a end of first round pick with them taking his full contract but after there pick 1 pick they really have nothing.

Tyre kickers who will waste our time and make stupid low ball offers and look surprised when they get knocked back. Clarko is continuing a norf tradition of being in on everyone without the means to get more than a couple of significant deals done. Even splitting pick 1 won’t get a fraction of what they supposedly want done. What’s Logie going to cost and work it out from there, Fremantle won’t take unders. Also no guarantee they’re going to get a priority pick, quite a few in the media saying no.

 

[Klaatu]

Tyre kickers who will waste our time and make stupid low ball offers and look surprised when they get knocked back. Clarko is continuing a norf tradition of being in on everyone without the means to be more than a couple of significant deals done. Even splitting pick 1 won’t get a fraction of what they supposedly want done. What’s Logie going to cost and work it out from there, Fremantle won’t take unders. Also no guarantee they’re going to get a priority pick, quite a few in the media saying no.

Yeah i can't see how they do all the rumoured deals they have lined up, they have no collateral.

 

[Curunir]

Lloyd as a FA would be a good get. We could then push Sincs into the middle.

Trade Hill for Pick 20ish

Trade Long for pick 40ish.

I think that would be a fairly solid trade period

 

[gringo2011]

Hence why they maybe biting the bullet and are committing to try and right their wrongs now before it is too late and King and his brother are at the end of their prime ..... and we find ourselves in another middling hole in 5 years time

I think if Hill (who is 29) is keen to break contract and move then I think we would definitely consider it - it is just that we can't force the move so we need him to do the heavy lifting

Re: Clark - he has enormous potential but he is fragile and just can't seem to get his body right - also maybe the powers that be see something in Clark that believe can't be fixed ie: fitness, strength building, lack of true commitment to getting the best out of himself - right now he has some trade currency and if we believe he will never reach his true potential then let's at least make the most out of a stagnant situation

If Gresh has a middling year next year then he could also find himself on the chopping block

Billings is too far down the track now to get anything decent for

Of course if we are going to draft for a mini rebuild with the intention of building a talented young core around the Kings then we have to hit every draft pick .... we can't afford any more misses at least with our top end draft picks

Windy Nasiah and Michito has been a good start and hopefully we can find a few more gold nuggets

Could be. I'm certainly guessing but we don't seem to stick to plans. We don't have Ben King and we are just as likely to lose Max as gain both at this point. If we are uncompetitive for another couple of years we are going to test the stoicism of a whole lot of players. If I was Sinclair and Steele I'd certainly hold out on a new contract until I was pretty certain of our direction.

Gresham isn't middling, he's injury prone but he's one of our better players.

If they are rebuilding or refreshing, we need to hire the right staff to get the best build possible or we are just in a repeat of what we've done before. It looks like we're back at the Pelican Brief stage.

 

[SWSainter]

Thats not a fact at all. In the 23 years of national drafts the Brownlow medal winners that were drafted in the top 10, only won 8 Brownlows (35%).

Brownlow medal winners taken with picks 11-58, father son and zone took 65% of Brownlow wins.

Brownlow medal winners who were drafted with picks from 20-58 won 12 times (52%).

If we want a better chance of drafting a Brownlow winner then we need to get our hands on Picks 20, 40, 43, and 58 who all have had two Brownlow winners each. Interestingly these four picks have produced as many Brownlow winners (35%) as the top 10 picks have.

Bravo, Stat of the Year!

 

[Captain Paddy]

I really don’t think we should be upset that no one wants to come to us. Going after disgruntled players from other teams and offering them overs is what we’ve been doing for years and it’s why Zak Jones

3

Zak Jones

Age

29

Ht

182cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.8

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

3.0

5star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.1

4star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

3.1

4star

CL

4.9

5star

D

7.0

2star

K

2.8

1star

HB

4.2

4star

M

1.0

1star

T

1.6

4star

CL

1.0

3star

is one of the highest paid on our list.

We should be happy if a couple want out and we get picks to go to the draft.

 

[Saintbloke]

I wonder if player managers are waiting for the outcome of the Saints review before worrying about trade negotiations etc?

 

[gringo2011]

I think this is indeed the idea. And I'm a fan, we need this stuff done now otherwise we fall off a cliff. People on this board constantly complain about the club not being proactive, I think thats what we are doing. We tried to fast track, didn't have the talent, now we take a small step back and go forward from there.

One thing, it's elite talent we lack, not soldiers. Our draft hand must increase in this space, a very high pick will help enormously!

Regarding the luck - considering the bulldogs and others have got for free with the father/son and other things - we were due...

Selling off Hunter Clark for anything less than pick 7 is moving sideways or backwards unless we absolutely arse a star. The further you move away from pick 1 the less likely the player will be a star. He is at an age where we should see what he's got. He's exactly the type of trade out that can embarrass us later on.

I'm 100% into keeping all our high picks to use at the draft and always have been but if you are not getting overs for what you are losing and pay high for everything you bring in you are where we are now. gags has been a pretty bad at everything apart from keeping the TPP down.

If you turn Ben Long into a second rounder that's good management. He wants out, we aren't playing him in a way that benefits us or him and we are dealing with a side with bulk second rounders and no fans.

Draft hand is one of those things that you want when rebuilding, but the good sides get pieces from all over the place. We don't need to eat five sandwiches because we skipped lunch yesterday. Just get our drafting back on track and stop throwing the ones we do have away.

 

[gringo2011]

It's possible with our list because our oldest key contributors are 26-28 (not 30+ as at Geelong).

They can carry the load for 3 years whilst we dump in draft talent around them. Occasional FA or State League player to plug gaps in the meantime

On Pixel 6a using BigFooty.com mobile app

They will be getting some pressure from the fans if it's a 15 year+ rebuild. I don't think the footy department and board will survive another couple of years out of finals

 

[The_Steadier]

You probably won't draft an elite young mid from 3rd round or worse. I have no problem using a pick in that range to target a small forward.
Ginnivan was a rookie pick.
Hell if we'd taken him first round in that draft we'd be happier than we are now.

The discussion was about trading in a small forward- not drafting one

 

[gringo2011]

Thats not a fact at all. In the 23 years of national drafts the Brownlow medal winners that were drafted in the top 10, only won 8 Brownlows (35%).

Brownlow medal winners taken with picks 11-58, father son and zone took 65% of Brownlow wins.

Brownlow medal winners who were drafted with picks from 20-58 won 12 times (52%).

If we want a better chance of drafting a Brownlow winner then we need to get our hands on Picks 20, 40, 43, and 58 who all have had two Brownlow winners each. Interestingly these four picks have produced as many Brownlow winners (35%) as the top 10 picks have.

Might be the case of winners but if you look at the leaders board they are nearly always the players taken in the top end of the draft. Also probably skewed by early drafting where is was much less structured and assessed.

Last year's Brownlow count-
Wines Pick 7
Bont pick 4
Oliver pick 4
Walsh pick 1
Parish pick 5
Steele 24 (GWS academy) Bid on by North Melbourne at 16.
Mitchell 21 FS Sydney
Boak pick 5
Petracca pick 2
Lyons pick 61
Mundy 19
Merrett pick 26
Mills pick 3 Academy.
Guthrie 23
Miller 29
Parker 40

 

[Minga]

Saw this post on Reddit which I thought was pretty good. Credit goes to U/chookie94.

Edit: I don’t agree with every point but I think it’s a good discussion starter.

“The moaning from Saints fans this off season is at unbearable levels and the grand finalists hasn't even been decided yet.

Lots of clubs are losing genuinely good players - like top 5 at their club quality of player. We have a fringe player who has multiple players in front of them in the pecking order as a small forward or as a half back, and it is the end of the world. Losing a 25 year old who is yet to cement a spot isn't going to be hurting any future success. It's the type of player we need less of. I'd hate to lose Clark but if we can get a good pick for him, I can see why they would do a trade. Someone who has barely played for 18 months leaving isn't going to make our on field performance worse because they haven't been contributing on field recently anyway/
Player like Jones, Billings and Butler are played because they are better players than the "youth" you want us to develop getting 12 disposals at Sandringham each week. Jones played some good football in his first 2 years for us but struggled to regain from mental health leave this year. Before Billings was injured, he was one of our best players. But a debilitating foot injury last year and hamstring issues this year hampered him but he is a much better player than we would get in return. Butler is a solid small forward. If we traded him, all we would be doing is trying to find someone exactly like him to add to the list. Fans whinge that they want us to be better but then want us to trade away someone who makes us better for shit picks.

We won 2 less games than Richmond this year despite playing 4 of the top 6 twice while they didn't play a top 8 side twice. Yes the 2nd half of the season was disappointing but the burn it down, start again whining happing right now is just exhausting. We need to add some players - another key forward and some explosiveness to the midfield would be ideal - but we aren't that far off being a finals side.”

 

[CanadianSaint]

Selling off Hunter Clark for anything less than pick 7 is moving sideways or backwards unless we absolutely arse a star. The further you move away from pick 1 the less likely the player will be a star. He is at an age where we should see what he's got. He's exactly the type of trade out that can embarrass us later on.

I'm 100% into keeping all our high picks to use at the draft and always have been but if you are not getting overs for what you are losing and pay high for everything you bring in you are where we are now. gags has been a pretty bad at everything apart from keeping the TPP down.

If you turn Ben Long into a second rounder that's good management. He wants out, we aren't playing him in a way that benefits us or him and we are dealing with a side with bulk second rounders and no fans.

Draft hand is one of those things that you want when rebuilding, but the good sides get pieces from all over the place. We don't need to eat five sandwiches because we skipped lunch yesterday. Just get our drafting back on track and stop throwing the ones we do have away.

I completely agree with you Gringo!
I don't see the point in the Clark thing, and I'm still pretty sure its not going to happen and that the media or other clubs are driving this.

You have to get a better talent than him to make it worth it.

Hill is gone in my mind, and I don't have a problem with that, he's not going to be anything more than what he is.

And this is my point, use Hill to get what you can, Long too... Then Hunter will only happen if a top 4 pick is involved, anything else is a "step sideways" as you say. He's not worth a top 4 pick, I get that, but it has to be involved.

 

[bird_man]

Saw this post on Reddit which I thought was pretty good. Credit goes to U/chookie94.

“The moaning from Saints fans this off season is at unbearable levels and the grand finalists hasn't even been decided yet.

Lots of clubs are losing genuinely good players - like top 5 at their club quality of player. We have a fringe player who has multiple players in front of them in the pecking order as a small forward or as a half back, and it is the end of the world. Losing a 25 year old who is yet to cement a spot isn't going to be hurting any future success. It's the type of player we need less of. I'd hate to lose Clark but if we can get a good pick for him, I can see why they would do a trade. Someone who has barely played for 18 months leaving isn't going to make our on field performance worse because they haven't been contributing on field recently anyway/
Player like Jones, Billings and Butler are played because they are better players than the "youth" you want us to develop getting 12 disposals at Sandringham each week. Jones played some good football in his first 2 years for us but struggled to regain from mental health leave this year. Before Billings was injured, he was one of our best players. But a debilitating foot injury last year and hamstring issues this year hampered him but he is a much better player than we would get in return. Butler is a solid small forward. If we traded him, all we would be doing is trying to find someone exactly like him to add to the list. Fans whinge that they want us to be better but then want us to trade away someone who makes us better for s**t picks.

We won 2 less games than Richmond this year despite playing 4 of the top 6 twice while they didn't play a top 8 side twice. Yes the 2nd half of the season was disappointing but the burn it down, start again whining happing right now is just exhausting. We need to add some players - another key forward and some explosiveness to the midfield would be ideal - but we aren't that far off being a finals side.”

I don't really agree with the argument that we lose little by losing Clark because he hasn't been on the paddock for 18 months.

If we are genuinely going to improve and push for finals the improvement has to come from the 22-23 year olds like Clark, King, Coffield, Higgins, Paton, Sharman etc.

Giving up one of of most highly rated in that age group robs us of that opportunity.

That's the core group that can take us somewhere along with the new draftees.

The 27-29 year olds wont be doing it.

It just makes that gap wider between the older blokes and young blokes.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Selling off Hunter Clark for anything less than pick 7 is moving sideways or backwards unless we absolutely arse a star. The further you move away from pick 1 the less likely the player will be a star. He is at an age where we should see what he's got. He's exactly the type of trade out that can embarrass us later on.

I'm 100% into keeping all our high picks to use at the draft and always have been but if you are not getting overs for what you are losing and pay high for everything you bring in you are where we are now. gags has been a pretty bad at everything apart from keeping the TPP down.

If you turn Ben Long into a second rounder that's good management. He wants out, we aren't playing him in a way that benefits us or him and we are dealing with a side with bulk second rounders and no fans.

Draft hand is one of those things that you want when rebuilding, but the good sides get pieces from all over the place. We don't need to eat five sandwiches because we skipped lunch yesterday. Just get our drafting back on track and stop throwing the ones we do have away.

The more l think about it the more l come around to Hunter never becoming the player we think he might be.
Every young potential star has a ravenous approach to their physical conditioning as it's the one thing that can be done at any time outside of club duties. Has Hunter been cruising on talent these last years? I think probably, begrudgingly, yes. With all his time off he should be ripped as all ****.
And where do they play him when Coff returns whilst Chito and Windy want time.
I absolutely hate it. HATE it.
But those new boys have got the stuff and the club need to bulldoze a path through the non performers to put them in the 22 every week.

 

[The_Steadier]

Thats not a fact at all. In the 23 years of national drafts the Brownlow medal winners that were drafted in the top 10, only won 8 Brownlows (35%).

Brownlow medal winners taken with picks 11-58, father son and zone took 65% of Brownlow wins.

Brownlow medal winners who were drafted with picks from 20-58 won 12 times (52%).

If we want a better chance of drafting a Brownlow winner then we need to get our hands on Picks 20, 40, 43, and 58 who all have had two Brownlow winners each. Interestingly these four picks have produced as many Brownlow winners (35%) as the top 10 picks have.

Lol 35% picks 1-10 is a better strike rate per pick than 52% picks 20-58.

35% for top 10 is also a better strikerate than 65% picks 11-58 + zoned and fs.

 

[Remboy]

Lol 35% picks 1-10 is a better strike rate per pick than 52% picks 20-58.

35% for top 10 is also a better strikerate than 65% picks 11-58 + zoned and fs.

As much as I love a good stat think my head is going to explode.

 

[The_Steadier]

We could then push Sincs into the middle.

We don't need jake lloyd to do that.

Webster, jones, lienart, clark.

We have a million options who could do a very decent job as an attacking halfback if given a chance in sinclair spot.

 

[jh38]

The more l think about it the more l come around to Hunter never becoming the player we think he might be.
Every young potential star has a ravenous approach to their physical conditioning as it's the one thing that can be done at any time outside of club duties. Has Hunter been cruising on talent these last years? I think probably, begrudgingly, yes. With all his time off he should be ripped as all *.
And where do they play him when Coff returns whilst Chito and Windy want time.
I absolutely hate it. HATE it.
But those new boys have got the stuff and the club need to bulldoze a path through the non performers to put them in the 22 every week.

100%, if the club is serious about mounting a charge for the flag then this is the type of move we need to make. Players can't just come to our club and coast by on their talent.

 

[jh38]

We don't need jake lloyd to do that.

Webster, jones, lienart, clark.

We have a million options who could do a very decent job as an attacking halfback if given a chance in sinclair spot.

You have Sinclair 2.0 in Connolly, might as well give him some games already, 2nd in Sandy's BNF

 

[The_Steadier]

As much as I love a good stat think my head is going to explode.

It's pretty straightforward.

8 out of 23 brownlow winners coming from only 10 picks (ie the top 10), is actually a very high strikerate=

0.8 brownlow winners per pick.


15 out of 23 brownlow winners coming from picks 11-58 + zone + fs may seem like more- but that's just because that's waaay more chances to pick a brownlow winner than 10.

Literally 5 times more chances to pick a brownlow winner infact than top 10.

58-11 = 47 picks, plus fs and zone = at least 50 picks.

So the strikerate for that is 15 winners in 50 picks = 0.3

Almost 3 times lower than the top 10 strikerate (0.8).


Those stats are proof that if you want a brownlow winner- your clear best shot is a top 10 pick.

 

[Jade Buddha]

Didn’t Gerard Healy criticise St.Kilda for Inferring they were after a contracted player. Think he said something like we were being disrespectful.
Funny how he’s not levelling this criticism at Clarko.